The preseason US LBM Coaches Poll is owned by the SEC and Big Ten. Big surprise, I know.

Those two powerhouse conferences compose over half of the preseason Top 25, including each of the top six spots and eight of the top 10. At a time when predicting how a year will unfold has become more difficult than ever — you can mostly thank widespread player movement through the transfer portal for that — Coaches Poll voters are making the safe bet that SEC and Big Ten teams will dominate the regular season.

But while the preseason poll is a handy roadmap for what’s ahead, it’s rare to see the Top 25 in August match or even come close to the final Top 25 in January. Last year, for example, nine teams ranked in the preseason finished the season unranked.

Winners

SEC

The league has a record nine teams in the preseason Coaches Poll, all inside the top 20. There’s No. 1 Georgia, the current favorite to get back to the top of the FBS. New member Texas lands at No. 4, followed by No. 5 Alabama and No. 6 Mississippi. After a brief lull, you’ll find No. 11 Missouri, No. 12 LSU, No. 15 Tennessee, another newcomer in Oklahoma at No. 16 and Texas A&M at No. 20. While it’s really hard to imagine how nine SEC teams end up with the records needed to land in the final Top 25, that so many populate the preseason poll speaks to the league’s well-deserved reputation as the nation’s best.

Big Ten

But the Big Ten isn’t too far behind the SEC, illustrating just how firmly these two leagues are in control of the Bowl Subdivision. The conference may only have six teams, but four are in the preseason top 10: No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, No. 8 Michigan and No. 9 Penn State. Joining that group are No. 23 Southern California and No. 25 Iowa. USC should be strong offensively behind quarterback Miller Moss but are desperate for improvement on the defensive side under new coordinator D’Anton Lynn. On the other hand, the Hawkeyes will have another strong defense while hoping for a spark from new offensive coordinator Tim Lester. The Buckeyes’ seven first-place votes is second to Georgia’s 46, while Michigan is one of four teams, along with Texas, to earn at least one first-place vote. Other Big Ten teams received Top 25 votes, including Washington, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

Texas

Voters are back to buying in on the defending Big 12 champs and new member of the SEC. The No. 4 ranking is the program’s highest in the preseason since 2010, when the Longhorns were fresh off a loss to Alabama in the national title game. That 2010 squad, which went a shocking 5-7, marked the beginning of a long and often torturous stretch of middling results that finally broke a year ago. It’s amazing to think of the chatter around Texas when the university announced its decision to join the SEC three years ago — basically, that the Longhorns would get chewed up and spit out by the conference — and where they stand heading into its league debut.

Losers

Group of Five

There are zero teams from the Group of Five in the Top 25 and only one team, Memphis, among the top 30 vote-getters. To have a small number isn’t that strange: No. 23 Tulane was the only Group of Five team in last year’s preseason poll and there were three in the 2022 and 2021 polls. But this marks the first preseason Coaches Poll without a team from a non-major conference since 2014. Voters didn’t have a Group of Five team in the final ranking of last season, perhaps indicating a trend among coaches on the panel to lean completely toward the new Power Four.

Michigan and Washington

The Wolverines’ ranking is historic for a defending national champion. So is defending runner-up Washington’s status outside the Top 25 entirely. Michigan is the lowest-ranked defending champ in the Coaches Poll since Auburn was No. 19 heading into the 2011 season; the only other team to be ranked outside the top seven in the preseason after winning it all was 1982 Clemson, which also came in at No. 8. Meanwhile, the Huskies are the first team since the start of the Bowl Championship Series era in 1998 to lose a title game be unranked heading into the following year. Washington is undergoing a pretty extensive rebuild while joining the Big Ten, so that might make sense, but it is still a surprising development.

Alabama

Here’s another way (among many) to place the Nick Saban era into perspective: Alabama’s No. 5 ranking is the program’s lowest in the preseason since 2009. Hey, the Crimson Tide did lose the greatest coach in college football history to retirement. But it’s not like the cupboard is anywhere even close to bare. The Tide bring back multiple top-level contributors from last season, namely a Heisman Trophy favorite in quarterback Jalen Milroe, and should land an offensive spark from new coach Kalen DeBoer and his never-fail scheme.