Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has authorized his negotiators to enter into detailed negotiations to try and broker a ceasefire and hostage release deal with Hamas, an Israeli official and a source familiar with the negotiations said.

The decision signals that Israel and Hamas are entering a new phase of negotiations that could produce a final deal within a matter of weeks, if successful. Israel and Hamas on Thursday both appeared inclined to underplay the latest developments in written statements, with people involved in the talks expressing cautious optimism.

For months, Israel and Hamas have engaged in mediated negotiations focused on trying to reach a framework agreement, intentionally leaving key details — such as the identity of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for hostages —  aside as they worked to hammer out a framework.

The breakthrough in the talks came earlier this week after the United States proposed new language for two key clauses (8 and 14) focused on the scope and sequencing of negotiations set to take place during the first phase of the agreement in order to unlock the second phase of the deal. Hamas broadly agreed with the new language, unlocking detailed negotiations following Netanyahu’s approval.

Mossad Director David Barnea, who has led Israel’s negotiating team, is set to lead the negotiating delegation for the new round of detailed talks, an Israeli source familiar with the talks said.

Talks are expected to be held in Doha, Qatar, starting as early as Friday, according to a senior Biden administration official.

The Mossad director is expected to meet with Qatari Prime Minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al-Thani for discussions aiming to bring the parties closer to a deal in Gaza, according to a source with knowledge of the talks.

Those negotiations are expected to last two to three weeks, the Israeli source said, to resolve issues such as the identities of Palestinian prisoners to be released, the exact ratio of prisoners to hostages and the technical sequencing of the releases.

“We are also waiting for a positive response from the Israeli side, which will initiate negotiations into details of the deal,” Naim added. “We have no information about any delegation visiting Cairo.”

Netanyahu spoke Thursday with US President Joe Biden to discuss the progress in the negotiations and the Israeli Cabinet was set to meet Thursday evening.

The call focused on the details of the hostage and ceasefire deal, the senior Biden administration official said, adding that there seems to be a “pretty significant opening” for the hostage deal to be agreed upon by all the involved groups.

When asked if the administration believes that Netanyahu is playing politics and could try to sabotage the deal, the official said that the deal is structured in a way that “fully protects Israel’s interests.”

The official added that Biden will have the opportunity to talk about the deal with other world leaders next week during the NATO summit, which will be held in Washington, DC.

Concerns are growing about political violence ahead of high-stakes parliamentary elections in France after a series of lawmakers were attacked on the campaign trail this week.

French government spokesperson Prisca Thevenot and her team came under attack while canvassing on Wednesday night, the latest in a string of violent incidents involving French lawmakers contesting Sunday’s parliamentary elections.

Her team isn’t the only one. National Rally politician Marie Dauchy, who is running in the southeastern constituency of Savoie, opted to suspend her campaign after she said was physically assaulted while campaigning at a market.

In Cherbourg, a center-right candidate from The Republicans party, Nicolas Conquer, made a formal complaint after he claimed he was assaulted by left-wing campaigners on Monday.

Politicians have repeatedly warned that a far-right victory could provoke huge protests in the streets with President Emmanuel Macron going so far as to say “civil war” may break out if the extreme left or right wins by a large margin in Sunday’s runoff vote.

Thevenot, a candidate for reelection from Macron’s Renaissance party, was in her constituency in the Parisian suburbs with members of her team when the group came under attack after attempting to stop a group of youths from defacing posters.

Providing an account of the incident to French newspaper Le Parisien, the minister said that although she was not harmed in the attack, her deputy and a member of her campaign team were taken to a hospital after sustaining injuries.

Four people have been taken in for questioning regarding the incident, Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin told French television station France 2 on Thursday morning.

Thevenot has vowed to continue campaigning, saying in a post on X on Thursday that “violence is never the answer.”

Politicians from across the political divide came out quickly to condemn the attack and send a strong warning regarding election-related violence.

Jordan Bardella, the leader of the far-right National Rally (RN) party, sent his “complete support” to Thevenot following the attack, calling for “calm and appeasement.”

Acknowledging that violence has been linked to both the far-right and far-left camps, Bardella vowed, if appointed, to be a prime minister who “re-establishes order” in France.

Incumbent Prime Minister Gabriel Attal, who is fighting to retain his seat, also denounced the attack on Wednesday, saying “violence and intimidation have no place” in France’s democracy.

An additional 30,000 police officers and gendarmes will be deployed across France on Sunday night in the event of public disorder, Darmanin said Thursday.

Darmanin said the beefed-up policing would ensure that neither the far right or far left “profit from the results” and succeed in inciting violence.

RN, the party of far-right doyenne Marine Le Pen, led the first round of France’s parliamentary elections on Sunday, taking it closer to the gates of power than ever before.

After an unusually high turnout, the RN bloc clinched 33.15% of the vote, while the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) coalition came second with 27.99% and Macron’s Ensemble alliance slumped to a dismal third with 20.76%, according to final results published by the Interior Ministry on Monday.

While the RN appears on track to win the most seats in the National Assembly, it may fall short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority, suggesting France may be heading for a hung parliament and more political uncertainty.

Correction: A previous version of this story gave the wrong location for where the candidate made the complaint. It was Cherbourg.

Hezbollah said that it fired more than 200 missiles at Israeli military sites in retaliation for the killing of one of its senior commanders in southern Lebanon.

Muhammed Neamah Naser, a commander in Hezbollah’s Aziz Unit, was “eliminated” on Wednesday, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said, blaming him for directing terror attacks both before and after Hamas’ October 7 attacks from Gaza

The IDF described him as a counterpart of Sami Taleb Abdullah, another Hezbollah commander whose killing last month also triggered a wave of retaliatory strikes.

“Together, they served as two of the most significant Hezbollah terrorists in southern Lebanon,” the IDF said.

In response to the killing, Hezbollah on Thursday said it had launched “more than 200 missiles of various types” at Israeli targets.

The Israeli military said that it intercepted some of those Hezbollah missiles, as well as drones. Some fires broke out as a result of falling shrapnel.

In response to those strikes, the IDF said their fighter jets have struck Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon overnight Wednesday into Thursday. The IDF said they struck a military structure and three “terrorist infrastructure sites.” Hezbollah said Thursday that one of its fighters had been killed.

Naser is the latest Hezbollah commander to be killed in hostilities that flared along the Israel-Lebanon border since the October 7 attacks.

Israeli fire services said Thursday that they are working on multiple “extensive fires” in the north of the country “as a result of the heavy shelling from Lebanon.”

More than 10 fires broke out in the area of the Upper Galilee and the Golan Heights, the Israel Fire and Rescue North District said in a statement, “with some of them creating very extensive fires in challenging terrain.”

Over 40 firefighting teams and 10 aircraft were working in the region on five major incidents, the statement said.

Cross-border fire between Israel and Iran-backed Hezbollah has been an almost daily occurrence since the war in Gaza began. But it has been gradually intensifying, raising fears it could escalate into a full-blown conflict.

Hezbollah is one of the most powerful paramilitary forces in the Middle East, boasting of tens of thousands of fighters and a vast missile arsenal. The group has said its current round of fighting with Israel is to support Palestinians in Gaza.

Israeli attacks in Lebanon have killed more than 300 Hezbollah fighters and some 90 civilians, according to Reuters tallies. Meanwhile, Israel says fire from Lebanon has killed 18 soldiers and 10 civilians.

Eugenia Yosef contributed to this report.

Jordan Bardella’s rise to the peak of French politics has been so swift he is still asked about his teenage years spent playing “Call of Duty.” Next week, at the age of just 28, he could become France’s prime minister – and Europe’s youngest for more than 200 years.

He’s the fresh face of an old party that has striven to make itself new. Handpicked as leader by National Rally (RN) doyenne Marine Le Pen in an effort to purge the far-right party of its racist and antisemitic roots, Bardella has taken it closer to the gates of power than ever before. On Sunday, the RN smashed President Emmanuel Macron’s centrist alliance in the first round of a snap parliamentary election.

Whether the RN forms a government and Bardella becomes prime minister after the July 7 runoff is not clear. Despite the surge in support for the RN, France’s left and centrist parties have called on their supporters to vote tactically to deny the far right an absolute majority in the 577-seat National Assembly. This week, more than 200 parliamentary candidates from Macron’s alliance and the left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) stepped down in a bid to avoid splitting the vote in the second round.

But as Paris wraps a week of political bargaining, one thing is clear: France – and the rest of Europe – must reckon with the prospect of a far-right French government, headed by a popular but untested leader. So, who is Bardella, and what might his party do in power?

The only child of Italian immigrants, Bardella was brought up in Seine-Saint-Denis, a working-class suburb of Paris. He joined the RN at 16, and later began a geography degree at the prestigious Sorbonne university, before dropping out to climb the party ranks.

He did so briskly. After becoming party spokesperson, he became the RN’s lead candidate for the 2019 European Parliament election at the age of just 23. In 2022, after Le Pen narrowly lost the presidential election to Macron, he succeeded her as party leader, leapfrogging the party’s long standing vice-president and Le Pen’s former partner, Louis Aliot.

Freed from the day-to-day management of the party, but almost certain to run again for the presidency in 2027, Le Pen has been able to freshen the RN’s image and untether it from its reputation. Le Pen began her yearslong effort to detoxify the RN by ousting her father, Jean-Marie Le Pen – a convicted Holocaust denier – from the party he founded, and later changing its name.

The appointment and subsequent rise of Bardella may represent the completion of her mission to bring the party into the modern age. For many older voters, the prospect of a far-right government – reminiscent of the collaborationist Vichy regime during World War II – remains terrifying. But among young people, not weighed down by this historical baggage, the party has proved hugely popular.

While the RN’s messaging has remained similar, the messenger has changed entirely. Suave, composed, unflappable, a child of the screen generation, Bardella has built up a huge TikTok following, where young voters can watch him tasting wine and doing shots. Even a video of him eating a bon-bon has been viewed 7.5 million times.

In just two years, Bardella has helped to give the RN an acceptable – and potentially electable – face. Whereas Macron’s Ensemble alliance has sought to distance itself from the president’s image, the RN’s election manifesto is filled with splashy portraits of the prime minister-in-waiting.

Fantasy promises?

But campaigning and governing require different skills. If he becomes prime minister, Bardella will face the problem common to parties that make the leap from protest vote to credible governing force: How, after making extravagant promises as they rail against the mainstream, to avoid disappointing people once in office?

Despite its freshened image, its decades-old philosophy remains the same: Immigrants threaten France’s social fabric. The RN is committed to abolishing the birthright to citizenship for children of foreigners born on French soil, and to discriminate in favor of French citizens in welfare and public employment.

But on other things in its 21-page manifesto, the RN is more vague. Detailing how it intends to “preserve French civilization,” it says it will enact “specific legislation targeting Islamist ideologies,” without elaborating, and that it will “experiment with the creation of a voluntary national heritage service.”

But already, the RN has begun to temper some of its more extreme nativist positions. After initially advocating to ban dual-citizenship, Bardella softened this stance, but maintained that “the most strategic positions” within government will be reserved for French citizens.

“Can you imagine Franco-Russians working at the Ministry of the Armed Forces today?” he said ahead of the first round.

But the party has not yet provided a definition of “strategic positions.” Could, for instance, the Spanish-born Mayor of Paris Anne Hidalgo remain in post, or would she have to renounce her Spanish citizenship?

Mocking the vagueness of the RN’s pledges, Jean-Luc Mélenchon – the far-left leader of the France Unbowed party, which belongs to the New Popular Front coalition – has asked: “What does Mr. Bardella want? We don’t know. He says nothing. He’s a good-looking guy, but what’s his program? Throwing immigrants into the sea.”

Critics have said Bardella’s chronic absence from key votes while he was a member of the European Parliament, and his lack of grasp of policy details, make him unfit to govern. In a recent debate with Gabriel Attal, the outgoing French prime minister and Macron’s protege, Bardella confessed, with a smirk, to not having read the text of a bill he had voted against.

On the economy, the RN has pledged to slash value-added tax on electricity, fuel and other energy products from 20% to 5.5% and suspend it entirely for scores of basic necessities.

While this may be appealing to voters, it has alarmed both Brussels and the financial markets. France is running one of the highest deficits in the eurozone and now risks falling foul of the European Commission’s new fiscal rules, which had been suspended to help countries recover from the Covid-19 pandemic and energy crisis. French government spending could soon be brutally constrained by Brussels, despite the lavish promises of the RN.

If the RN falls short of the 289 seats required for an absolute majority, Bardella might choose not to govern. In bullish speeches before the first-round vote, he ruled out leading a minority government, which would require the support of allied parties to pass laws. While France might escape a far-right government for now, it faces the growing prospect of Le Pen becoming president in 2027, and then calling parliamentary elections to see Bardella installed as prime minister.

The Meloni model?

Since 2022, formerly fringe nativist parties hoping to govern have found a model to follow. After the technocratic government led by Mario Draghi collapsed in Italy, triggering a snap election, Giorgia Meloni became Italian prime minister, becoming the country’s most far-right leader since Benito Mussolini.

Before she took office, Rome’s allies thought a hard-right Italian government could compromise Western unity on support for Ukraine, pointing to Matteo Salvini, Meloni’s deputy prime minister and a longtime admirer of Russian President Vladimir Putin who used to don T-shirts emblazoned with his image.

But Meloni’s premiership has proven more moderate than many feared at the outset. While she has pursued hard-right policies domestically – seeking to limit abortion, surrogacy and even removing lesbian mothers’ names from their children’s birth certificates – she has largely toed a mainstream line on foreign policy issues.

Might the RN adopt this bifurcated strategy?

The RN is notoriously euroskeptic, but talk of a “Frexit” has cooled – perhaps because Britain’s departure from the European Union proved an act of serious economic self-harm, and perhaps because hard-right leaders – like Hungary’s Viktor Orban – have shown it is easier to weaken the bloc from the inside than from without.

With that aim, the RN has promised to cut funding to the EU by up to 3 billion euros ($3.2 billion), partly to fund tax cuts at home. But, with EU budgets agreed on a seven-year basis and the current one running until 2027, the RN cannot legally renege on France’s spending commitments.

Bardella has also ruled out sending French troops to Ukraine – an idea floated by Macron – and said he would not allow Kyiv to use French military equipment to strike targets inside Russia.

But a Bardella premiership could tip France into a constitutional crisis. While the National Assembly is responsible for passing domestic laws and the prime minister controls the budget, the president determines the country’s foreign, Europe and defense policy. When the prime minister and president belong to different parties – in a rare arrangement known as “cohabitation” – things can grind to a halt.

With Macron set to see out his term, which finishes in 2027, the line between domestic and foreign issues may become blurred. If Macron pursues a foreign policy that requires parliament to pass large spending bills, it is not clear whose preferences would prevail: his or Bardella’s.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Thursday urged regional leaders to resist “external interference” at a gathering of a Eurasian security bloc touted by Beijing and Moscow as a counterbalance to Western power.

Addressing the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO)’s annual leaders’ summit in Kazakhstan, Xi called on member states to “consolidate the power of unity” in the face of “the real challenge of interference and division.”

“We should work together to resist external interference … and firmly grasp our own future and destiny, as well as regional peace and development, in our own hands,” Xi was quoted as saying by Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.

The 10-member bloc must handle internal differences with peace, seek common ground, and resolve difficulties in cooperation, Xi added.

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to combat terrorism and promote border security, the SCO has grown in recent years as Beijing and Moscow drive a transformation of the bloc from a regional security club with a focus on Central Asia to a geopolitical counterweight to Western institutions led by the United States and its allies.

On Thursday, Belarus, a staunch Russian ally that helped Moscow launch its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, became the latest authoritarian state to join the SCO, after Iran became a full member last year. The bloc underwent its first expansion in 2017 to welcome India and Pakistan.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi was notably absent from this year’s event, further adding to the perception of the SCO’s anti-Western orientation.

At the summit, Xi warned against what he called “the real threat of Cold War mentality” and called on member states to “uphold our security baseline.”

He also urged countries to safeguard the right to development in the face of the “real risks of small yards with high fences,” referring to a strategy adopted by the US to restrict key technologies from China.

The Chinese leader stressed the need to jointly promote scientific and technological innovation, and to maintain the stability and smoothness of industrial and supply chains.

China-Russia alignment

On the eve of the summit, Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin – the two leaders driving the SCO’s expansion – met on the sidelines and hailed their countries’ deepening alignment.

In opening remarks ahead of their bilateral meeting, Putin said Russia-China relations are going through “the best period in their history” and should be considered a “stabilizing” force for the world.

“Russian-Chinese cooperation in global affairs serves as a main stabilizing factor on the international stage, and we continue to further enhance it,” Putin told Xi on Wednesday.

The Russian president also underscored Moscow and Beijing’s roles “at the cradle” of the SCO’s founding and noted its rapid expansion in recent years.

“As the number of participants grew … the SCO also gained a bigger role as one of the key pillars of a just multipolar world order,” Putin said.

The meeting marks the two leaders’ second face-to-face talks in just two months following Putin’s visit to Beijing in May and comes shortly after the Russian president struck a landmark defense pact with North Korea.

Much to the consternation of the US and Europe, China and Russia have deepened their political, economic and military ties since Putin and Xi declared a “no limits” partnership in February 2022 when the Russian leader visited Beijing, weeks before his full-scale invasion of Ukraine.

China has surpassed the European Union to become Russia’s top trade partner, offering a crucial lifeline to its heavily sanctioned economy. The two nuclear-armed neighbors have also continued to hold joint military exercises, including with Iran.

Meanwhile, the US has accused China of providing Russia with dual-use goods that bolster the warring nation’s military industrial complex as it attacks Ukraine, which Beijing denies.

In his opening remarks Wednesday, Xi told Putin that China and Russia should “keep upholding the original aspiration” of their “lasting friendship” in the face of “an international situation fraught with turbulence and changes.”

Xi also hailed the “unique value” in China-Russia relations, urging the two countries to make new efforts to safeguard their “legitimate rights and interests” and “the basic norms governing international relations.”

“China and Russia should continue to strengthen comprehensive strategic coordination, oppose external interference and jointly safeguard regional tranquility and stability,” Xi said, according to a readout from China’s Foreign Ministry.

This story has been updated with additional information.

British voters are heading to the polls Thursday for a crucial general election that is being seen as a referendum on 14 years of Conservative rule.

The snap vote, called by Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, is being held months earlier than necessary and caught much of his party by surprise.

The opposition Labour party suffered its worst defeat since 1935 in the last general election, but has since rebuilt itself under the leadership of Keir Starmer.

Thursday’s vote follows a six-week campaign in which all major parties have scoured the country in search of votes. Much of the debate has revolved around the economy, the cost of living, the state of Britain’s public services, and tax and immigration.

Largely absent from the debate, however, has been Britain’s relationship with the European Union, which it left in 2020 after a referendum four years earlier.

Britain has had three Conservative prime ministers since the last general election in 2019, which Boris Johnson won by a landslide.

But after much of the country and his party soured on Johnson, Conservative party members voted in 2022 to replace him with Liz Truss, who became the shortest-serving prime minister in British history. Conservative Members of Parliament (MPs) then voted to replace her with Sunak.

During the campaign, Nigel Farage – one of the most prominent champions of Brexit – announced his return to frontline politics to lead the nascent hard-right Reform UK party.

Sunak, Starmer, Farage and the heads of all other major parties are expected to make appearances at their own local polling stations throughout the day.

Around 46.5 million Brits are eligible to vote in the election. They are casting their ballots in 650 separate constituencies across the nations of England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland, with 326 seats required for a party to form a majority government.

News outlets are barred from reporting anything that could influence voters while polls are opened. An exit poll from British broadcasters will project the seat totals are soon as polls shut at 10 p.m. local time (5 p.m. ET), and counting will take place throughout the night and into Friday morning.

In a landmark decision, Japan’s Supreme Court has ordered the government to pay damages to people who were forcibly sterilized under a now-defunct eugenics law, ruling the practice was unconstitutional and had violated their rights.

The Eugenic Protection Law, in place from 1948 to 1996, allowed authorities to forcibly sterilize people with disabilities, including those with mental disorders, hereditary diseases or physical deformities, and leprosy. It also allowed forced abortions if either parent had those conditions.

The law had aimed to “prevent the increase of the inferior descendants from the eugenic point of view and to protect the life and health of the mother as well,” according to a copy of the law – which listed “remarkable abnormal sexual desire” and “remarkable clinical inclination” among the conditions targeted.

About 25,000 people were sterilized without consent during that period, according to the court ruling, citing ministry data.

Though the government had offered to compensate each victim 3.2 million yen (about $19,800) in 2019 under a relief law, victims and their supporters argued that was far from enough – with a number continuing their fight in court.

Wednesday’s ruling addressed five such lawsuits, filed by plaintiffs from across the country to lower courts which then advanced to the Supreme Court.

In four of those cases, the lower courts had ruled in favor of the plaintiffs – which the Supreme Court upheld on Wednesday, ordering the government to pay 16.5 million yen (about $102,000) to the plaintiffs and 2.2 million yen ($13,000) to their spouses.

In the fifth case, the lower court had ruled against the plaintiffs and dismissed their case, citing the 20-year statute of limitations. The Supreme Court overturned this decision on Wednesday, calling the statute “unacceptable” and “extremely contrary to the principles of justice and fairness.”

The case is now sent back to the lower court to determine how much the government should pay.

“The legislative intent of the former Eugenic Protection Law cannot be justified in light of the social conditions of the time,” said Judge Saburo Tokura when handing down the judgment, according to public broadcaster NHK.

“The law imposes a grave sacrifice in the form of the loss of reproductive capacity, which is extremely contrary to the spirit of respect for individual dignity and personality, and violates Article 13 of the Constitution,” he added – referring to every person’s right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

After Wednesday’s decision, plaintiffs outside the court – elderly men and women, many in wheelchairs – celebrated with their lawyers and supporters, holding up banners that read “victory.”

They are among 39 total plaintiffs who have filed lawsuits in recent years – with six having died since, according to NHK, highlighting the urgency of these cases as victims reach their final years.

In a press conference after the court ruling, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi expressed the government’s remorse and apology to victims, NHK reported. The government will promptly pay the compensation, and consider other measures such as a meeting between the plaintiffs and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, he said.

Iran’s snap presidential election will head to a second vote on Friday, with a reformist and conservative hardliner facing off to replace Ebrahim Raisi amid unprecedented voter apathy.

After none of the four initial candidates secured more than 50% of the vote on June 28, reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili emerged as the two candidates with the most votes, with Pezeshkian leading by 3.9 percentage points.

The first round, however, saw the lowest voter turnout for a presidential election since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979, highlighting the discontent among a population losing faith in the country’s ruling clerical establishment.

Pezeshkian and Jalili are on opposite ends of the Iranian political spectrum. Each candidate could lead Iran in a starkly different manner at a time when the Islamic Republic is grappling with delicate domestic and international problems – including an economy in tatters, a restive youth movement and escalating tensions with Israel and the United States.

Here’s what to expect on Friday’ second round of elections, and how the results could impact Iran and the world.

What happened in the first round?

The snap election was held after Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19 in the country’s remote northwest, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials.

Three conservatives and a single reformist candidate vied for the country’s top elected seat, after dozens of other candidates were barred from standing by the powerful 12-member Guardian Council, which is tasked with overseeing elections and legislation, and reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

During the first round, Pezeshkian led with 42.5% of the votes, followed by Jalili with 38.6%, according to the state news agency IRNA. Out of 60 million eligible voters, 24 million cast their ballots, resulting in a 40% turnout.

The record low turnout – in a country where presidential elections usually command more than 60% – came despite Khamenei urging Iranians to show “maximum participation” in order to strengthen the Islamic Republic against its adversaries.

Nevertheless, analysts say critical shifts may be taking place among voters ahead of the second round. Some conservatives – including those who in the first round supported hardliner Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf  – appear to be moving their support to the reformist Pezeshkian at the expense of his conservative opponent Jalili.

Is the conservative camp fracturing?

Analysts suggest that some conservatives believe it’s necessary to shift away from some of the uncompromising policies of the late President Raisi, which Jalili is likely to continue.

One of those conservatives is Sardar Mohsen Rashid, a founder and senior member of the IRGC. Rashid declared his support for Pezeshkian on Monday and called on people to defend him against “cowardly attacks,” according to the conservative Iranian news site Khabar Online.

In a move that shocked observers, the man who led Ghalibaf’s electoral campaign, Sami Nazari Tarkarani, also declared his support for reformist Pezeshkian, Khabar Online reported.

While it is unclear whether that shift while be reflected on the ground, other supporters of Ghalibaf said they are trying to sway conservatives and silent voters to also back the reformist candidate instead.

The splits among conservatives also show that sentiments within camps are not homogenous, analysts said.

“The type of anti-establishment sentiments are not limited to just the reformists, you also have it in the ranks of the IRGC,” Parsi said, adding that the current rifts are particularly notable given efforts by the regime to concentrate power only in the hands of the conservatives.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, said that Iranian politics is factional and divided, adding that “not everyone in the IRGC supports or favors conservative or hardline politics.”

What would a win for Pezeshkian mean?

In a presidential debate on Monday, both candidates appeared intent on garnering votes from the 60% of the electorate that did not participate, experts said.

“Pezeshkian is adopting more radical rhetoric to attract nonvoters,” Sina Toossi, an Iran analyst and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, wrote on X. “Meanwhile, Jalili is trying to soften his image, and has agreed with Pezeshkian numerous times.”

Pezeshkian, who comes from an Azeri-Kurdish family, has tried to appeal to minorities, women and the country’s youth, Toossi wrote.

The establishment appoints people from its “own circles and excludes the rest of the population,” the candidate said during the debate on Monday.

Pezeshkian had famously criticized the regime’s handling of the 2022 mass protests, saying that in an interview with Iran’s IRINN TV: “It is our fault. We want to implement religious faith through the use of force. This is scientifically impossible.”

Addressing poverty in Iran, he said during the debate that “the problem of the poor is us,” adding that if candidates want to increase voter turnout, “they (the voters) must believe that officials sit at the same table as they do.”

Millions in Iran are under the poverty line, often struggling to make ends meet in an economy that has for years been crippled by US sanctions. Iran’s annual inflation rate hasn’t dipped below 30% in over five years, and in June stood at 36.1%, straining wallets across the country.

This persistent inflation follows the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and the subsequent reimposition of heavy sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Pezeshkian stressed the need to re-start dialogue with the West and find a way to end the sanctions.

Iran’s relationship with the West has only worsened in recent months, with Tehran supporting militant groups across the Middle East that have targeted both Israeli and US interests amid the war in Gaza. The Islamic Republic has also escalated its nuclear program, pulling back cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

What would a Jalili win mean?

During the presidential debates, Jalili also sought to appeal to women and youth, saying that voices of students and young Iranians “must be heard.”

However, he stuck to his position that Iran should not rely on the West to ensure progress, a line echoed by the Supreme Leader in recent weeks.

“We must make the enemy regret imposing sanctions,” Jalili said, adding that Western threats must be turned into an opportunity, a line echoed by late President Raisi, who sought to solidify friendships with US foes amid Western isolation.

The candidates’ opposing views come as rhetoric between Iran and Israel sharpens. The two countries exchanged direct fire for the first time in April as the Gaza conflict widened, and Israel is now preparing for a potential second front with Hezbollah, Iran’s primary regional proxy, in Lebanon.

Iran’s mission to the UN said on Saturday that should Israel “embark on full-scale military aggression” against Lebanon, then “an obliterating war will ensue.”

“All options, including the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table,” it said on X.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz responded on Saturday, saying that “a regime that threatens destruction deserves to be destroyed.”

How much autonomy would either candidate really have?

The heated regional tensions raise questions about whether a reformist president can truly make a difference. Experts say it may not be as big of a chance as some in the West might hope.

The Supreme Leader is the final arbiter on most decisions in Iran. But “that doesn’t mean that the president and his foreign policy team are irrelevant,” Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, said.

He noted that Pezeshkian’s presidency would be very different from Jalili’s as the reformist is surrounded by the “creme de la creme of Iranian diplomats.”

Iran’s track record, however, shows that it has tended to take a more conservative trajectory in the long run, even when there has been a reformist president in place, experts said, adding that Tehran’s regional policy toward Israel and its proxies is unlikely to change.

When it comes to core policies in Iran, such as support for Hezbollah and animosity toward Israel, a reformist president is unlikely to make a difference, Parsi said, adding that there may however be better engagement with the West.

Despite that, Jalili may bring more hardline policies to the table, and potentially double down on his predecessor’s approach.

Depending on the environment in the West, Jalili may take a “much more confrontational approach to Iran’s nuclear program,” Vakil said, adding that despite the limitations on the president’s freedom to act, each brings their “own personal touch” to Iran’s government.

Israel and Hamas appear to be on the brink of a framework agreement for a ceasefire and hostage release deal, an Israeli source familiar with the negotiations said.

Israeli officials believe Hamas’ latest response will enable the two parties to enter detailed negotiations to reach an agreement, the source said.

A deal, however, is still not finalized nor is it assured. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must first green-light entering into that next phase of negotiations; and it will likely take several weeks of difficult negotiations to negotiate the details of a potential agreement, including the identities of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for Israeli hostages held by Hamas and the sequencing of releases.

Israeli negotiators are set to meet with Israel’s political leadership, including Netanyahu, over the coming days to decide whether to enter this phase of detailed negotiations.

The Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service which has led negotiations, confirmed earlier on Wednesday that Egyptian and Qatari mediators had submitted Hamas’ latest response to Israel on Wednesday.

“Israel is evaluating the remarks and will convey its reply to the mediators,” the Mossad statement said without providing any additional details.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

The former leader of Northern Ireland’s most prominent pro-union party, Jeffrey Donaldson, will stand trial over allegations of historical sex offenses including one charge of rape.

Donaldson stepped down as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in March after he was charged with 11 sexual offenses.

The politician has since been charged with a further seven offenses. The 18 alleged offenses include: one charge of rape, 13 charges of indecent assault of a female child and four charges of gross indecency towards a child.

Donaldson was asked in court if he wanted to comment on the charges, according to PA Media. “Not at this stage,” he replied, the news agency reported.

His wife Eleanor Donaldson is also set to stand trial in September and has been charged with one charge of aiding and abetting rape, three charges of aiding and abetting assault of a female child and one charge of cruelty towards a person under the age of 16.

Donaldson led the DUP from 2019, throughout much of the turbulent Brexit process, regularly voicing his opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol, a key part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement that ensured there was no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Both Donaldson and his wife have previously denied all charges, Irish public broadcaster RTÉ reported Wednesday.

Donaldson’s trial was announced as people in Northern Ireland were preparing to vote in the UK general election. As one of the UK’s four devolved nations, Northern Ireland has 18 seats in the Westminster parliament. Northern Irish politicians can choose to either run for a seat in Westminster or for a seat in the devolved legislature, the Northern Ireland Assembly. Lawmakers from the leading Nationalist party, Sinn Féin do not take up their seats in Westminster if elected.

Donaldson had been slated to run again in the Lagan Valley constituency but has been replaced by former DUP party colleague Jonathan Buckley.