South Africa’s ruling African National Congress party is set to fall short of a majority for the first time in 30 years after national elections this week, marking the biggest political shift in the country since the end of apartheid.

With counting nearly complete support for the ANC was at just over 40%, a huge slump from the 57.5% it received in the last election.

The official opposition party, the centrist Democratic Alliance (DA), had about 22% of the vote.

Behind them were two ANC splinter parties: the newly formed uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK), led by Zuma, had nearly 15% of the vote, and the far-left Economic Freedom Fighters (EFF) had nearly 10%, data from the country’s electoral commission showed.

Fed-up voters dealt the party of Nelson Mandela a seismic blow at the polls after years of corruption scandals and economic mismanagement.  As a result, the ANC will be forced to form a coalition to govern the world’s most unequal country.

Cyril Ramaphosa, the president of South Africa and the ANC – and once Mandela’s favorite to succeed him as leader – promised a “new dawn” when he took over in 2018 from disgraced former president Jacob Zuma.

But many feel those promises never materialized and the election results reflect a population deeply frustrated with the country’s direction. South Africans could now face weeks of political uncertainty, as the ANC seeks to strike a coalition deal with former rivals.

The rebuke to the ANC was hardly unexpected, mirroring widespread dissatisfaction with the ruling party. But the scale of the losses surprised some.

There has been “a general arrogance and loss of connection with the general voter from the ANC side,” Verwoerd said, adding that parties like MK and the EFF have capitalized on that discontent.

Zuma – a fierce critic of Ramaphosa – was forced to resign as leader in 2018 and served a brief stint in jail in 2021 for contempt of court. The Constitutional Court barred the 82-year-old  from running for parliament in May, but his face remained on the MK party ballot.

ANC in uncharted territory

Substantial bargaining will likely begin once the final results are declared. Political parties will have two weeks to form a coalition government before a new parliament must convene to elect the nation’s president. If they fail, new elections will need to be held.

“It is their spinelessness to deal with the prospect of Mr. Zuma and his sins of omission and commission that has led to him being a political force now that has come and wiped them out in places like KwaZulu-Natal and other parts of the country.”

The populous coastal eastern province of KwaZulu-Natal, where the major city of Durban is located, has traditionally been a stronghold of the conservative Inkatha Freedom Party (IFP).

Zuma has faced hundreds of corruption, fraud and racketeering charges over the years. He has always denied all of them and became known as the “Teflon President” because few politicians could have survived the scandals he has faced and weathered.

What he labels a “doomsday coalition” is one of the other options on the table: a deal between the ANC-EFF or even the MK.

But with such disdain inside those breakaway parties for Ramaphosa, it would be quite some negotiation.

The EFF is led by former ANC youth leader Julius Malema. It espouses the expropriation of land without compensation and sweeping state nationalism. The MK party’s manifesto holds broadly similar ideas and demands an overhaul of the country’s constitution to restore more powers to traditional leaders.

Not since the dawn of democracy in 1994 has South Africa’s political landscape been so unclear.

But some analysts believe – despite the uncertainty – that the results of this election could be a win for democracy.

“It is probably a maturity in the democracy, we needed change and it is never good to have such a one-party dominance in a country,” Verwoerd said.

“It might be a little bit more unstable as we go into the future. But for democracy’s sake, it is most probably a good thing.”

She said that the ANC’s prospects dropped dramatically under the previous president.

“Once the Jacob Zuma years happened, it became pretty inevitable that there was going to be a slide,” she added.

A country going backwards

The ANC swept to power in 1994 on a pledge to “build a better life for all,” winning almost 63% of the vote in the country’s first democratic election.

Fast forward three decades and rampant corruption, soaring joblessness, crippling power cuts, and feeble economic growth are severely impacting South Africans.

The economy has gone backward over the past decade, evidenced by a sharp fall in living standards. According to the World Bank, gross domestic product per capita has fallen from a peak in 2011, leaving the average South African 23% poorer.

South Africa has the highest rate of unemployment in the world, according to the World Bank.  Inequality is also the world’s worst.

Black South Africans, who make up 81% of the population, are at the sharp end of this dire situation. Unemployment and poverty remain concentrated in the Black majority, in large part due to the failure of public schooling, while most White South Africans have jobs and command considerably higher wages.

Any coalition government will be a bitter pill to swallow for the ANC and Ramaphosa, who could soon be fighting for his political life.

Leading analysts believe that the ANC was depending on its legacy too much.

“The ANC was campaigning on three decades of its existence. But nobody was looking at the current president,” said TK Pooe, a senior lecturer at Wits School of Governance in Johannesburg. He believes Ramaphosa is “under pressure”.

Pooe said, with this election, voters have told the ANC three things: “jobs, jobs, jobs.”

Whether a coalition government can deliver for the people is deeply uncertain, but one thing is clear: South Africa and the ANC – Mandela’s former liberation movement that triumphed over apartheid – will never be the same.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenksy arrived in Singapore Saturday for a previously unannounced appearance at a summit of defense chiefs from across the Asia-Pacific as Ukraine’s troops scramble to counter a major Russian advance into its northeast.

Zelensky’s surprise attendance at the gathering is a stark illustration of Kyiv’s determination to keep the international community engaged in Ukraine’s defense – and its vision for peace – more than two years into Russia’s devastating invasion.

The Ukrainian leader has traveled outside his embattled country sparingly during the war and earlier this month called off international engagements as his troops defended against the surprise Russian offensive in northeastern Kharkiv.

His attendance at the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore provides a rare opportunity for Zelensky to potentially meet with defense chiefs from across the Asia-Pacific, including China which has deepened its relations with Moscow since the war.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and defense heads from US allies Australia, Japan, and South Korea, as well as China’s Defense Minster Dong Jun are expected to be in attendance for the three-day gathering.

Announcing his arrival at the summit, Zelensky said in a statement on X that he would hold “a number of meetings,” in particular with Austin, Singapore’s president and prime minister, Timor-Leste’s president and Singaporean investors. The pentagon confirmed on Saturday that Austin would meet Zelensky and Ukrainian Defense Minister Rustem Umerov at the Shangri-La on Sunday, “to discuss the current battlefield situation in Ukraine and to underscore US commitment to ensuring Ukraine has what it needs to defend itself against ongoing Russian aggression.”

Zelensky arrives in Singapore weeks ahead of a Ukraine-backed peace summit slated to be held in Switzerland amid a mounting urgency for Kyiv to bolster international support for its peace plan – especially in the face of the looming US presidential elections, which could see a shift in the level of US support for his cause.

Ukraine relies squarely on international funds and weapons – and faces shortages of manpower and equipment. Months of political wrangling on Capitol Hill as well as lack of supplies from NATO countries have kept Ukraine’s forces significantly outgunned against Russia. A major $61 billion aid injection for Ukraine bill was finally passed by the US in late April.

On Friday, Zelenksy was in Sweden for a summit with Northern European leaders where he said Ukraine’s “top priorities” were to ensure more air defense systems and weapons for Ukraine, as well as “global efforts to force Russia to make peace,” according to the leader’s post on the platform X.

In Asia, Zelensky may carry a similar message.

The conflict, though a continent away, has been watched closely by governments across the region, especially those contending with territorial disputes with another military and authoritarian power in the region, China.

The conflict in Europe is also widely seen to have impacted the security climate in Asia. Russia has nurtured a burgeoning relationship with North Korea, believed by Western governments to have supplied Russian forces with munitions in recent months.

Moscow and Beijing have also deepened their strategic partnership during Russia’s war, with the US accusing China of bolstering Russia’s defense industrial base with dual-use exports – and divisions between China and the West deepening over Beijing’s close Kremlin ties.

Those exports were raised during a meeting Friday between Austin and his Chinese counterpart Dong Jun. Austin indicated to China that there would be consequences if Beijing continues to support Russia militarily, a senior US defense official said after the meeting.

Dong said China, which claims neutrality in the conflict, had honored its “promise not to provide weapons to either side of the conflict” and has strict controls on dual-use exports, according to China’s spokesperson.

Beijing also confirmed Friday that it would not send a delegation to the upcoming, Ukraine-backed peace conference in Switzerland, with its Foreign Ministry citing its view that any international peace conference should have “recognition by both Russia and Ukraine, equal participation by all parties, and fair discussion of all peace plans.”

Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan calls for Russia to withdraw all its troops from Ukrainian territory and the restoration of Ukraine’s internationally recognized borders.

Zelensky has previously made surprise appearances at global summits to keep attention focused on Ukraine’s plight and strengthen ties – he famously dropped in on the Group of 7 (G7) summit last year in Japan.

It’s not clear if he will have an opportunity to meet with any Chinese officials during his time in Singapore. Russia is not participating in the gathering.

In an interview with Russia’s state news agency RIA Novosti, Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov suggested Thursday that China could organize a peace conference involving both Russia and Ukraine.

Key European leaders have also signaled a similar position shift.

However, the US elections have raised uncertainty over the level of US support for Ukraine’s war effort if the fighting continues into next year –– widely seen as adding another measure of urgency to Ukraine’s push for peace on its terms.

Biden, a staunch supporter of Kyiv, competes for office against former President Donald Trump, who in the past refused to say whether he wants Russia or Ukraine to win the war and raised questions about his commitment to America’s NATO allies.

US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin on Saturday hailed the arrival of a “new convergence” in the Indo-Pacific, as the United States fortifies strategic and security partnerships in the region amid rising threats from China and Russia.

“Today, we are witnessing a new convergence around nearly all aspects of security in the Indo-Pacific,” Austin said at the Shangri-La Dialogue security forum in Singapore.

“This new convergence is producing a stronger, more resilient, and more capable network of partnerships. And that is defining a new era of security in the Indo-Pacific.”

The new convergence is not “a single alliance or coalition,” but instead “a set of overlapping and complementary initiatives and institutions, propelled by both a shared vision and a shared sense of mutual obligation,” Austin said.

Looming large in that regional vision is a more assertive China, which Austin alluded to without mentioning it by name.

The convergence, he said, is not about “imposing one country’s will” or “bullying or coercion,” but common principles and beliefs including “the peaceful resolution of disputes through dialogue – not coercion or conflict. And certainly not through so-called punishment.”

The remark appeared to be a thinly veiled reference to China’s military drills around Taiwan last week, which Beijing said was a “strong punishment” for the self-ruled island’s “separatist acts.” The massive show of force came just days after Taiwan swore in its new democratically elected leader Lai Ching-te, who called on Beijing to cease its intimidation tactics.

Austin said the new convergence helped the US make “historic progress” in the past three years. “We’ve strengthened stability on the Korean Peninsula. We’ve supported the status quo across the Taiwan Strait. And we’ve stood up for the rule of law in the South China Sea,” he said.

Under President Joe Biden, the US has bolstered ties with allies and like-minded partners in the Asia-Pacific region to counter a rising China, which under leader Xi Jinping has become increasingly assertive and belligerent about its many maritime and territorial claims in the region – from Taiwan to the East and South China Seas.

That bolstering of US ties has infuriated Beijing, which accuses Washington of leading a campaign of “encirclement and suppression” of China.

Austin’s emphasis on a “new convergence” in Asia-Pacific appeared to have struck a raw nerve with the Chinese delegation in the audience.

In the Q&A session, a Chinese colonel asked Austin whether the US is planning to build a NATO-like alliance system in the Asia-Pacific region, and blamed NATO for the Ukraine war.

“The eastern border expansion of NATO has led to the Ukraine crisis. What implications do you think the straightening of the US alliances system in the Asia-Pacific will have on this region’s security and stability?” asked Cao Yanzhong, a senior colonel and researcher at the Institute of War Studies of the Academy of Military Sciences of the Chinese military.

“I respectfully disagree with your point that the expansion of NATO caused the Ukraine crisis,” Austin replied, drawing a rare round of applause from the audience.

“The Ukraine crisis obviously was caused because (Russian President) Mr (Vladimir) Putin made a decision to unlawfully invade his neighbor.”

The exchange came a day after Austin held his first face-to-face talks with China’s Minister of National Defense Adm. Dong Jun on the sidelines of the defense forum.

The rare talks between the US and Chinese defense chiefs touched on a host of fractious issues including Taiwan and China’s relationship with Russia, as well as frictions in the South China Sea.

On Saturday, Austin mentioned the meeting with Dong in his speech, saying they had a “frank discussion.”

“There is no substitute for direct military-to-military talks between senior leaders. And there’s no substitute for open lines of communication to avoid misunderstandings and miscalculations,” he said, adding that he looked forward to more talks with China.

Austin also reiterated US commitment to its defense treaty with the Philippines, calling it “ironclad.”

Philippine President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr on Friday denounced illegal, coercive and aggressive actions in the South China Sea at the opening of the defense forum, saying peace, stability and prosperity in the waters was being undermined by other actors, without naming China.

Austin also reaffirmed US commitment to the Asia-Pacific region, saying peace and stability across the region are crucial for the whole world.

“The United States can be secure only if Asia is secure. That’s why the United States has long maintained our presence in this region. And that’s why we continue to make the investments necessary to meet our commitments to our allies and partners,” he said.

Hours after Austin reaffirmed America’s commitment to the Indo-Pacific, a Chinese military spokesman accused the United States of “creating division and provoking confrontation.”

“The US keeps creating chaos and has become the source of risks, as well as the destroyer to peace and stability in the Asia-Pacific region,” Jing Jianfeng, Deputy Chief of the Joint Staff Department at China’s Central Military Commission, told a group of reporters in Singapore.

There’s no fresh water in the slums of Delhi’s Chanakyapuri neighborhood. It’s 49.9 degrees Celsius, or 121 Fahrenheit – the hottest temperature on record.

The sun belts off the tin roofs of the shanties. Desperate people wait for drinking water to be delivered.

When it arrives, there’s chaos.

Dozens of people run to the truck, some even climbing on top of it to throw pipes in, pushing in to get their containers filled with water. It’s first come first served, and many people miss out.

Mother-of-six Poonam Shah is one of those people.

“There are 10 people in my family – six kids, me and my husband, my in-laws, relatives come over sometimes – can we all bathe in one bucket of water?” she asks.

Today her family may not even have one bucket. Poonam was working her street food stall when the water truck arrived. She tried to run back for it – but it was too late, the water had run out.

“What are we supposed to do? There’s no water. I work in a shop, there’s no water there. But forget about the shop, we don’t have water for our kids.”

She’ll now look to buy water – it’ll cost up to half of the $3 she usually earns in a day selling samosas and other snacks.

As record heat grips northern India, the Delhi government has been forced to ration these free water deliveries. Previously, Poonam’s neighborhood received two to three tanker deliveries per day. Now it’s just the one.

Temperatures in Delhi have been hovering above 40 degrees Celsius over the last week and on Tuesday they hit an all-time high of 49.9 degrees Celsius in one area of the capital, according to the Indian Meteorological Department.

At least one death has been reported in the city so far, and dozens more across the country.

At Ram Manohar Lohiya (RML) hospital in Delhi, a heatstroke unit with cold immersion tanks is treating more and more patients suffering extreme heatstroke, exhaustion and dehydration.

The hospital’s ice baths and air conditioning can help a handful of the millions of people who have no choice but to brave the Delhi heat to earn a living, but only if they get to hospital quickly.

“If people get that rapid cooling, they stabilize, they survive. But if they get to the hospital late and the intervention is late, the mortality rate is so high. We’re unable to save them if they come to us late.”

The patient who died in Delhi had been admitted to RML hospital. He was a 40-year-old migrant laborer, and like many working outdoors in the harsh sun, he succumbed to the heat.

“He was working in a factory… he was working in an area where there was no cooling, a very small congested area with a tin shed so there were multiple workers inside,” Dr Shukla said, adding that it was too late by the time he arrived at the hospital.

The man’s name has not been released, for privacy reasons.

Most of the hospital’s heatstroke patients are from poorer communities, where working people have no choice but to spend long stretches out in the summer sun.

Kali Prasad sells water and lemon juice outside the India Gate. Each day he pushes his water cart to the famed spot, from his home some eight kilometers (five miles) away.

“The heat has risen drastically over the last five to 10 days, it’s very hot, people aren’t even coming here because of it,” he said.

He says he has no choice but to stand all day under the scorching sun, as there is no one else to provide for his wife, children and parents.

In recent years, the summer heat has come earlier, temperatures have risen higher and higher, and heatwaves have lengthened.

Northwest and central India have been experiencing maximum temperatures above 42 degrees Celsius with some towns even crossing the 50-degree mark, according to the Indian Meteorological Department.

The trend is “a clear manifestation of the escalating impacts of climate change,” says Farwa Aamer, the director of South Asia initiatives at the Asia Society Policy Institute.

“This alarming spike in temperatures underscores the urgent need for robust adaptation strategies and proactive measures in India and the region to protect lives and livelihoods, especially among vulnerable populations, from the devastating health effects of such intense heat,” said Aamer, who researches climate vulnerabilities in South Asia.

For many in Delhi, the climate crisis has already made life during summer unbearable.

“We have to deal so we deal, we are poor people so we have to die, we have to work no matter how hot it is,” Kali Prasad said.

“We don’t have any other option.”

With more than 98 million eligible voters, some 70,000 candidates and over 20,000 public offices being contested, Mexico’s general election on June 2 will be the largest in the country’s history.

But it’s not just the massive scale of the event that makes it so important in the eyes of observers across the border in the United States.

For the first time in history, the country looks set to elect its first female president. The two front-runners are both women – Claudia Sheinbaum, of the Morena party, who is backed by the governing coalition Sigamos Haciendo Historia, and Xóchitl Gálvez, who is backed by an coalition of opposition parties.

The vote is also important because it falls in the same year as the US presidential election – something that happens only once every 12 years – and comes at a time of transition in the relationship between the two countries.

“The years when all the US wanted was a safe and stable Mexico are over. Now it is also interested in a country with good public policy,” said Rafael Fernández de Castro Medina, director of the Center for US-Mexico Studies at the University of California, San Diego, pointing to the increasing number of Latinos in the US and the two countries’ growing ties.

Here are a look at some of the biggest issues affecting the US-Mexico relationship that will be influenced by Sunday’s vote:

It’s the economy, stupid

Mexico became the United States’ top trading partner last year, surpassing China and Canada.

Experts say this is largely because geopolitical issues such as the pandemic, the legacy of Trump’s trade war against China, and the war in Ukraine all encouraged near-shoring – the relocation of supply chains nearer to home – which boosted US imports from Mexico and its investment in the country.

Key to facilitating this shift was the creation of the USMCA trade agreement, which came into effect in 2020 between Mexico, the United States and Canada.

“The USMCA offered, in that favorable context, a legal regulatory framework that provided a lot of certainty to the three North American countries, and Mexico has seized the opportunities and strengthened its preferential tariffs to make this happen,” explained Lila Abed, director of the Mexico Institute at the Wilson Center.

However, it’s not all been plain sailing. Mexico’s compliance with the USMCA has been an issue of contention between the administration of Mexico’s current President Andrés Manuel López Obrador and those of both US President Joe Biden and his predecessor Donald Trump.

“The next president of Mexico will have to deal with a series of legal disputes that the United States, supported by Canada, has filed within the framework of the USMCA,” Abed points out.

“These range from [López Obrador’s] ban on the import of transgenic corn for human consumption; the shift towards a nationalist energy policy, which has affected US investments in electricity and hydrocarbons, as well as the little importance given to clean energies,” Abed said.

According to Abed, whoever wins the Mexican presidency on June 2 will have to deal with a lawsuit filed by the United States on these issues. They will also have to renegotiate the agreement when it comes up for renewal in 2026.

Many analysts believe the US is currently playing down disputes over the USMCA in the hope that this can ease differences in other areas, both in domestic Mexican issues – such as alleged human rights violations, the government’s treatment of journalists, and the increase in political assassinations – and bilateral concerns such as immigration and the drug trade.

“It’s very transactional. Mexico agreed to partially manage the immigration crisis in the US, keeping immigrants in Mexican territory and taking care of their deportation, in exchange for the United States not activating these lawsuits,” said Raquel López Portillo Maltos, executive secretary of the youth group of the Mexican Council on Foreign Relations (Comexi) think tank.

Jorge Alberto Schiavon Uriegas, vice president of the Center for Studies and Analysis on Mexico’s Foreign Policy, said López Obrador followed a quid pro quo policy towards both Trump and Biden, and this would possibly continue with Sheinbaum, if elected.

“Mexico committed to addressing the two main Mexican issues affecting the United States and that will determine the next election: migration and fentanyl. In exchange, the United States dramatically reduced its criticism of Mexico’s democratic and institutional weakness, and reduced its interventions, leaving more room for López Obrador’s domestic policy,” said Schiavon Uriegas.

Migration: Mexico, ‘part of Trump’s wall’

While migration across the countries’ 1,933 miles long border is a shared concern, the issue is much lower on Mexican politicians’ agenda than in the US — where it could be a decisive factor in the November vote, according to Carin Zissis, editor-in-chief of the Americas Society/Council of the Americas website.

“The speeches of Sheinbaum and Gálvez on migration are neither very strong nor very different from each other, nor do they address too much what to do with migrants in the country,” she said.

“Proof of this is that, during the last presidential debate, when migration was addressed, the main angle was Mexican migrants currently living in the US; they were talking to their potential voters north of the border and to the Latino community in general, which is large and powerful due to remittances.”

The rub for US politicians is that they need buy-in from their Mexican counterparts if their own immigration policies are to succeed.

Zissis gave the example of how Lopez Obrador had made Mexico “part of Trump’s wall” by sending “thousands of members of the National Guard and the Army to take care of migration control.”

¨Trump didn’t have to build the wall because Mexico is the wall,” said Zissis.

Abed, of the Mexico Institute, said Mexico’s next president would face a different conundrum to previous leaders, because the country had changed from being merely a transit country, which immigrants passed through on their way to the US, to being in many cases their final stop.

“The reaction of the López Obrador government has been to transport migrants who are waiting at the border between Mexico and the United States to the southeast of the country and leave them there. The migration authorities are overwhelmed, the Mexican Refugee Aid Commission (Comar) is also overwhelmed, the centers where migrants stay are very precarious, migrants — specifically unaccompanied minors and women, as well as young people — are at risk from organized crime and human traffickers, and their human rights could be violated,” Abed detailed.

She said the next Mexican government will need to assume responsibility for this large migrant population, “and decide whether to give them a temporary visa, whether to allow them to work, whether they will have access to medical services, etc.”

Fentanyl and the drug trade

Security is another pillar of the bilateral relationship, particularly in terms of the thriving cross-border drug trade that blights both countries.

While the United States has been grappling with a domestic health crisis due to the amount of fentanyl on its streets, Mexico faces increasing cartel-linked violence – including in the run-up to the election which has been marred by dozens of assassination attempts and other political violence.

“México has made progress in dismantling clandestine drug laboratories, but the next government must do more to stop the entry through maritime ports of precursor chemicals mostly coming from China, because after that is when they fall into the hands of organized crime to produce these synthetic opioids,” Abed said.

“But the United States also has to dismantle the network of traffickers within (its own borders). That is, once fentanyl arrives, its distribution throughout the territory is not magical. There is a significant network of organized crime in the United States that the administration must arrest, bring to trial, and whose activities it must restrict,” she added.

One issue the US may be keen to revisit with whoever wins on June 2 are the reforms to Mexico’s National Security Law that the López Obrador government implemented in 2018 as one of its first measures, which limited the activity of foreign agents operating on Mexican territory.

“It was a symbol, a sign that the Mexican government was not going to open the door so easily to security agencies such as the DEA, the CIA, and others. He removed the diplomatic immunity (and) they had to register all their activities with the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, etc,” explained Abed.

“López Obrador often speaks to his Mexican base and then negotiates. He knows that the US needs him on migration and security matters,” said Zissis at the Americas Society website.

On June 2, Mexicans will vote to pick their next president in a historic race that could see a woman take the top job for the first time.

In addition to the presidency, there are more than 20,000 positions to fill and an estimated 70,000 candidates vying for those offices, including 128 senate seats and 500 deputy seats; the mayorship of Mexico City; and governor’s offices in Chiapas, Guanajuato, Jalisco, Morelos, Puebla, Tabasco, Veracruz and Yucatán.

Here’s who is running for president:

Claudia Sheinbaum

The 61-year-old Sheinbaum is a former Mexico City mayor and climate scientist. A longtime political ally of incumbent President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, she was the Mexico City environment secretary from 2000-2006 when he was mayor.

If she wins, Sheinbaum would be not only the first female president in Mexico, but the first president with Jewish heritage, although she rarely speaks publicly about her personal background and has governed as a secular leftist.

Her close alignment with López Obrador has been both a blessing and a curse politically. Sheinbaum has said she’s “not a close copy” of López Obrador – but she also doesn’t shy away from touting the principles they share, even repeating his slogans on the campaign trail.

(López Obrador has repeatedly dismissed whispers that he favors a candidate that he could influence, telling press in February that he would “retire completely” after his term.)

Among her policies, Sheinbaum has promised:

• Continuing Lopez Obrador’s pension for all senior citizens
• Scholarships for more than 12 million students
• Free fertilizers for small farm owners
• On security, she proposed consolidating the National Guard, reform of judiciary, strengthening intelligence and research and coordination with law enforcement authorities.

Xóchitl Gálvez

Backed by an opposition coalition of Mexico’s PRI, PAN and PRD parties, Xóchitl Gálvez is a former senator and previously served as the top official for indigenous affairs under former President Vicente Fox.

The daughter of an indigenous father and a mixed-race mother, the 61-year-old was a businesswoman before entering politics.

For a relative newcomer, Galvez’s entry into the presidential race has gained impressive momentum, experts say.

Her proposals include:

• Continuing Lopez Obrador’s pension for all senior citizens
• A “universal social protection system” of welfare programs for middle and lower classes
• A security approach that would strengthen local and state police
• Galvez has also hinted that that oil-rich Mexico should invest more in renewable energy, saying earlier this year: “We haven’t done it because we are dumbasses.”

Jorge Álvarez Máynez

A late entrant in the race, Jorge Álvarez Máynez shot to international attention earlier this month, when a stage collapsed at his campaign event in the northeastern city of San Pedro Garza García, killing nine people and leaving at least 121 people injured.

The 38-year-old has pledged to:

• Eliminate the crime of simple drug possession to to stop criminalizing poverty, and move from prohibitionism to regulation of drugs
• End the longstanding militarization of Mexico and instead focus on training and strengthening police
• He has also proposed a gradual economic reform including a universal pension system, guaranteed labor rights and income and progressive tax reform
• Máynez has also called for transforming the Federal Electricity Commission (CFE) and Pemex into renewable and clean energy companies, and for closing some refineries

The key issues: Security and migration

Security and immigration are top issues for all of Mexico’s presidential candidates.

Campaigning in the run-up to the election has been marred by dozens of assassination attempts and other political violence. There are concerns now that that the attacks have already cooled off campaigns; experts and political parties say some candidates have renounced their bids in fear of their lives.

But electoral violence is just a part of Mexico’s broader security crisis, with sky-high crime and homicide rates. In the first four and a half years of López Obrador’s government, 160,594 homicides were recorded – a figure surpassing that of the previous administration.

However, a report from the Mexican Peace Index (MPI), prepared by the Institute for Economy and Peace (IEP), has offered some reason for optimism, reporting improvements in five key indicators: homicides, crimes with violence, fear of violence, crimes committed with firearms, and crimes of violence. Homicides and crimes committed with firearms peaked in 2019, according to the May 2024 report, and have since improved.

Meanwhile, pressure is growing on Mexico’s southern and northern borders.

In 2023, the National Migration Institute (INM) recorded a 77% increase in migrant arrivals compared to 2022. And as it grapples with the surge of migrants and asylum seekers entering and crossing its own territory, Mexico will also have to contend with external policies on migration.

As an example, Myriam Guadalupe Castro Yáñez, an academic at the National School of Social Work of the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM), points to a recent state law in Texas that has already caused waves in Mexico.

In December, Texas Gov. Greg Abbott signed a bill that would allow state officials to detain and deport people suspected of having entered the United States illegally. The law is currently blocked in a US federal court, but the López Obrador government has warned that it will not receive people deported by Texas and that it will only discuss immigration issues with Washington.

Both Sheinbaum and Gálvez have stated their support for this stance.

European allies of former US President Donald Trump have rallied around him in support following his historic conviction on 34 felony counts of falsifying business records.

The conviction – which has been heralded as a somber moment for America with wide-reaching implications – has been painted by Trump’s allies in Europe as political persecution, aimed at derailing his bid to return to White House.

Italy’s Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini called Trump’s conviction “judicial harassment” in a post on X, while Hungarian President Viktor Orban urged him to “keep on fighting” for the presidency.

But other countries declined to comment on the development – a conventional response for governments when asked about another nation’s domestic matters.

A Manhattan jury found Trump guilty of all 34 charges of falsifying business records on Thursday, an unprecedented verdict that makes him the first former president in American history to be convicted of a felony. The verdict was announced after jurors deliberated for nearly 12 hours over two days.

It will ultimately be up to voters in November to decide the significance of the guilty verdict delivered by 12 ordinary New Yorkers, which, on a legal basis, does not prevent him from being elected president again.

Salvini, who is a long-time supporter of the former president and visited him in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania during his first presidential campaign, said Trump was a “victim of judicial harassment and a process of political nature.”

He wrote on X that “in Italy, we are sadly familiar with the weaponization of the justice system by the left,” which he said has for years tried to “eliminate political opponents through legal means.”

“I hope Trump wins; it would be a guarantee of greater balance and hope for world peace,” he added.

Orbán said he knew Trump to be “a man of honour.”

“As president, he always put America first, he commanded respect around the world and used this respect to build peace,” he said Friday in a post on ‘X’.

“Let the people make their verdict this November! Keep on fighting, Mr. President!” he added.

Meanwhile, Russia suggested there was a political conspiracy at play, despite Trump being convicted by a jury.

“In general, if we talk about Trump, it is obvious that political rivals are being eliminated there through all legal and illegal means,” President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson, Dmitry Peskov, said in a daily call to journalists.

“This is visible to the whole world with the naked eye.”

Other countries, sticking to protocol, declined to comment on Trump’s conviction. Asked in a press briefing Friday whether he would potentially be willing to work with a convicted felon, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak avoided the question, stating that his focus was “squarely on the election here at home, talking to people across the country about the choice at our election.”

Germany’s Foreign Office spokesperson Christian Wagner, meanwhile, told journalists in a daily briefing: “We do not comment on this.”

The Israeli military is in central Rafah, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed in a statement Friday, despite international concern and anger over its military operation in Gaza’s southernmost city.

“IDF troops in central Rafah located Hamas rocket launchers, terror tunnel shafts, and weapons. The troops also dismantled a Hamas weapons storage facility in the area,” the IDF said in the statement.

On Wednesday, the Israeli military said it had established “operational control” over the Philadelphi Corridor, a 14-kilometer (8.7-mile) buffer zone on the Palestinian side of the Egypt-Gaza border.

Access to cell phone services in Rafah was interrupted on Thursday due to the ongoing Israeli offensive, Palestinian telecommunications company Jawwal said in a statement.

Israel’s incursion into Rafah earlier in May marked a new phase in its war against Hamas in Gaza, which has killed more than 36,000 Palestinians, according to health officials in the enclave, displaced the majority of the strip’s population and sparked a humanitarian catastrophe that has appalled international agencies.

Over the weekend, Israel launched an airstrike on a displacement camp in the city, killing dozens and creating global outrage. The strike also took out two Hamas leaders, Israel said.

“The word tragic doesn’t even begin to describe it,” US Vice President Kamala Harris said of the incident on Tuesday. But neither she or President Joe Biden have said the strike crossed a red line for US support.

The confirmation of the IDF’s presence in central Rafah came as it said it had ended operations in eastern Jabalya, in the north of the Gaza Strip.

The military said in a statement that its troops had destroyed more than 10 kilometres (six miles) of tunnels and weapons production sites in the Jabalya operation, which began earlier this month and involved what the IDF described as “intense combat and close-quarters encounters” with combatants.

The statement also said the bodies of seven hostages were recovered during the operation. The hostages were killed on October 7, it said, and their remains were then taken to Gaza.

“Jabalya camp is not suitable for life, unfortunately,” Basal said. “There are no water wells, schools, or hospitals, all of which have been completely destroyed. There is nothing that would enable the life of the citizen in this area, and there are a large number of martyrs and houses that have been leveled to the ground with citizens inside them, and we cannot recover the bodies from under the rubble.”

Israel resumed fighting in northern Gaza earlier this month, despite having said it had dismantled Hamas’ command structure in the area back in January.

The renewed fighting show the challenges Israel faces in achieving its goal of destroying Hamas, with a top security official this month warning the war could last into next year.

The death of any Filipino citizen at the hands of another country in the South China Sea would be “very close” to an act of war, Philippines President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. warned Friday as his nation faces increasingly fraught clashes with Chinese vessels in the South China Sea.

Marcos delivered the keynote speech of the Shangri-la Dialogue in Singapore, a regional gathering of global security leaders, including US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Adm. Dong Jun.

The Philippine president was asked by a member of the audience whether a “red line” would be crossed if Chinese Coast Guard ships, which have frequently deployed water cannons against Philippine vessels in recent months, ended up killing a Filipino sailor.

“If a Filipino citizen is killed by a willful act, that is, I think, very, very close to what we define as an act of war and therefore we will respond accordingly,” he replied.

“And our treaty partners, I believe, also hold that same standard,” he added.

China has increasingly pushed its territorial claims in the South China Sea, and China Coast Guard ships, reinforced by maritime militia boats, have been involved in a series of fraught clashes over the last year that has seen Philippine ships damaged and Filipino sailors injured by water cannon.

With confrontations increasingly souring the Beijing-Manila relationship, Marcos has sought out closer ties with the United States, with which the Philippines maintains a mutual defense treaty.

As part of that relationship, the US has gained increased rights to use Philippine military bases and the two allies have expanded bilateral military exercises. US officials consistently say the mutual defense pact is “iron-clad” and Philippine naval, coast guard and civilian vessels are covered by it.

That raises the prospect that should one of the many maritime clashes between Chinese and Philippine vessels in the South China Sea turn deadly, it could pile pressure on Washington to support its ally – and even drag the US military into a conflict.

“We already have suffered injury. But thank God we have not yet gotten to the point where any of our participants, civilian or otherwise have been killed,” Marcos said, referring to increasingly fraught clashes with China’s coast guard ships.

“But once we get to that point (a fatality)… we would certainly have crossed the Rubicon. Is that a red line? Almost certainly it is going to be a red line,” he said.

Key global waterway

China claims “indisputable sovereignty” over almost all of the 1.3 million-square-mile South China Sea – one of the world’s busiest waterways. But portions of it are also claimed by governments in Vietnam, Malaysia, Brunei and Taiwan as well as the Philippines.

In 2016, in a case brought by the Philippines, an international tribunal in the Hague ruled that China’s claim to historic rights to the bulk of the sea had no legal basis.

But Beijing has rejected the tribunal’s ruling and continued its military buildup, with many features lying hundreds of miles away from China’s mainland. It also maintains a large presence of coast guard and fishing vessels – which has frequently stoked tensions with its neighbors.

Marcos addressed the dispute multiple times in his speech.

“Illegal, coercive, aggressive, and deceptive actions continue to violate our sovereignty, sovereign rights, and jurisdiction,” he said, adding that the Philippines would defend it’s sovereignty to “the last square millimeter.”

“The life-giving waters of the West Philippine Sea flow in the blood of every Filipino. We cannot allow anyone to detach it from the totality of the maritime domain that renders our nation whole,” he added.

In the past week, Marcos has been raising concerns over a new Chinese policy that give its coast guard new powers of detention in Chinese-claimed areas of the South China Sea, including areas that lie within the Philippines Exclusive Economic Zone.

Meanwhile, the Philippine Navy said it is prepared to protect the rights of Filipinos and would be increasing patrols in the South China Sea, including the areas of contested sovereignty, according to the PNA.

A Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson said earlier this week that the new regulations are “in line with common international practices.”

“As long as there is no illegal behavior by any individual or entity, there is no need to worry,” spokesperson Mao Ning said.

“What I want to emphasize is that it is not China but the Philippines that has frequently escalated the situation in the South China Sea,” Ning added.

In his speech Marcos also warned that growing rivalry between the United States and China was impacting the entire Asia-Pacific region.

“The strategic competition between China and the United States is permeating the evolving regional landscape. This rivalry is constraining the strategic choices of regional states. This contest is exacerbating flashpoints, it has created new security dilemmas,” Marcos told delegates.

“The continued stability of this region requires China and the United States to manage that rivalry in a responsible manner,” he added.

The US and Chinese defense chiefs are holding a rare in-person meeting Friday as the two powers navigate a contentious security landscape across the Asia-Pacific and a range of frictions between them from China’s intimidation of Taiwan to American’s strengthening alliances in the region.

The meeting, between US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and China’s Minister of National Defense Adm. Dong Jun, is the first face-to-face talks between the two defense chiefs and Austin’s first such discussions with a Chinese counterpart since late 2022.

The meeting, on the sidelines of an annual defense conference in Singapore, takes place against a fraught regional backdrop. Beijing – which wields the world’s largest navy – continues to aggressively assert disputed territorial claims in the East and South China Seas, while decrying Washington’s efforts to strengthen security ties with key allies like Japan, South Korea and the Philippines.

China earlier this month staged major war games around Taiwan following the inauguration of the island’s new democratically elected president. China’s ruling Communist Party claims the self-governing democracy as its own, despite never having controlled it.

Its Coast Guard in recent weeks has also fired water cannons and sought to counter Philippine vessels operating in disputed areas of the South China Sea, stoking already heightened tensions with a US treaty ally in the region.

Beijing has also lashed out at what it sees as provocative moves between the US and its allies, with its Defense Ministry spokesperson on Thursday condemning the deployment of an American missile system during military drills in the Philippines last month.

Austin is expected to raise concerns with Dong about China’s support for Russia, US officials said ahead of the meeting. Washington in recent weeks has said dual-use exports from China are bolstering Russia’s defense industrial base as it wages war in Ukraine, with US officials warning Beijing against providing Russia with any lethal equipment.

Talks between Austin and Dong are not expected to see substantive progress towards resolving many entrenched issues between them.

At the core of those contentions is that China does not want to see America exercise its military power in Asia – a region where the US it has deep, historic security ties and seeks to maintain open waterways and deter North Korean aggression, but where China is widely viewed as wanting to establish its dominance.

But their meeting is seen by international observers as a positive step toward enhancing dialogue that could help to avoid miscommunication or military mishap veering toward conflict.

Severed ties

The face-to-face follows a call last month between Austin and Dong, who was appointed to his post in late December. The call marked Austin’s first at-length conversation with a Chinese counterpart since November 2022.

Beijing had largely suspended high-level military communications following a visit in August of that year from then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan, which sparked Beijing’s ire.

The silence coincided with a period of significant tensions between the two powers, which included high-profile incidents such as a Chinese spy balloon traversing across the continental US and what the US described as an increase in “coercive and risky” behavior by Chinese pilots against US aircraft over the East and South China Seas.

US efforts to re-engage appeared further complicated by the appointment in early 2023 of China’s previous Defense Minister Li Shangfu, who had been sanctioned by the US in 2018 over China’s purchase of Russian weapons.

Austin and Li had a brief exchange during last year’s Shangri-La Dialogue, but no formal talks, with Beijing repeatedly suggesting that the US defense secretary won’t get a meeting with Li unless the sanctions were revoked.

Efforts to stabilize that communication hit another complication after Li abruptly vanished from the public eye last August amid a personnel shake-up in Chinese leader Xi Jinping’s military ranks.

Li was formally removed from his post without explanation in October and replaced by Dong, a former naval commander, some two months later. 
 
In China, the defense minister is a largely ceremonial role, serving as the public face of military diplomacy with other countries, while command power resides within the Chinese Communist Party’s powerful Central Military Commission led by Xi.

Xi and US President Joe Biden had vowed to restore high-level military talks during a summit outside San Francisco in November, seen by both sides as a key step in stabilizing fractious relations.

Several weeks later, US and Chinese top generals spoke in a video call, paving the way for this week’s in-person meeting between the defense chiefs.