Editor’s Note: This story contains graphic and disturbing descriptions of sexual violence.

Within an hour of being arrested by Russian security forces, Roman Shapovalenko was threatened with rape.

On August 25, 2022, the day after Ukraine’s Independence Day, he said three armed, masked officers from Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB) stormed his home in the southern Ukrainian port city of Kherson, which was occupied by Russian forces at the time.

They turned his house inside out searching for incriminating evidence. A message in Shapovalenko’s phone that called Russian soldiers “orcs” — a derisive reference to the evil forces in J. R. R. Tolkien’s Middle-earth books and a popular Ukrainian slur for the Russian army — was enough for them. He said he was tied up, blindfolded and stuffed into an unmarked car.

For days after, Shapovalenko said he was repeatedly electrocuted in his genital area, threatened with being raped with a glass bottle, and was even made to believe he could be sterilized.

Describing the graphic detail of his experience matter-of-factly, Shapovalenko sometimes paused to laugh nervously. He said his sense of humor is helping with what he knows will be a long recovery. The Russians, he said, hated it. “I made a little joke, and they didn’t like it. I got punched for that.”

Shapovalenko’s experience of sexual violence at the hands of Russian forces is common among Ukrainians – including civilians and soldiers – who have been detained since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of the country more than two years ago.

Human rights monitors have long reported on the rampant use of sexual violence by Russian police and security forces against prisoners and detainees in Russia. Now it seems Russia is exporting the practice to occupied Ukraine.

Few men have spoken publicly about their ordeal, but Ukrainian prosecutors and rights groups say male victims make up a growing proportion of cases. The crimes often go unreported because of the stigma and shame associated with them. The latest United Nations Security Council annual report into conflict-related sexual violence said that 85 cases had been documented in Ukraine in 2023 – affecting 52 men, 31 women, one girl and one boy. A separate report from UN rights officials who interviewed 60 male Ukrainian prisoners of war following their release found that 39 were victims of sexual violence while in Russian detention.

Their accounts tallied with cases documented by regional prosecutors in Kyiv, Kherson and Kharkiv and were corroborated by witnesses held in the same detention facilities in Kharkiv and Kherson.

Taken together, their stories capture what prosecutors describe as Russia’s systematic and continuing use of sexual violence in occupied areas as part of its efforts to force the Ukrainian people into submission.

“We see it over and over again in different regions under occupation. They use the same method of committing sexual violence, the same method of humiliation, the same method of how they explain it to their victims,” said Anna Sosonska, a Ukrainian prosecutor and the acting chief of the conflict-related sexual violence division in Ukraine’s Office of the Prosecutor General.

‘They all laughed’

Roman Chernenko said he spent seven months in a “punishment cell” in a prison in the occupied city of Olenivka, in the eastern Donetsk region, after he was captured by Russian troops in Mariupol area. The 29-year-old intelligence officer with the Ukrainian military – who goes by the call sign “Omen” – described being tortured as often as three times a day, every day, for four months.

He said he believes officers from Russia’s GRU, the Russian Federal Penitentiary Service (FSIN) and the FSB, Russia’s main intelligence agency, all took part in the torture.

“They laughed when they tortured me … they told me that my mother was being f**ked by Chechens. They took me to be shot twice, they threatened me with rape,” he said.

Rape and sexual violence are explicitly prohibited by the Geneva Conventions – the set of international laws that regulate the conduct of armed conflict – and can constitute a war crime. Mock execution is considered a form of torture under international law.

Under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court (ICC), committing rape and sexual violence in a systematic or widespread way is considered a crime against humanity.

According to Ukrainian prosecutors investigating conflict-based sexual violence and abuse, all available evidence indicates that it is a deliberate tactic, part of Russia’s modus operandi in Ukraine.

“It’s in every region that was under occupation. Everywhere that Russian troops were located, we’re seeing cases of sexual violence and gender-based violence. The bottom line is that it looks like it is Russian policy,” Sosonska said.

As of early May, Ukraine has officially recorded 293 cases of sexual violence, although Sosonska said that it is impossible to estimate the real number of crimes that are being committed, particularly in occupied territories which remain inaccessible to its investigators and prosecutors.

Some 37,000 Ukrainian citizens are unaccounted for, according to the Ukrainian ombudsman’s office, with thousands believed to be held in Russian detention and at risk of torture and sexual violence.

But the real scale of sexual violence committed during the war may never come to light. Only a fraction of victims tend to come forward and, according to the UN, this is especially true for men, some of whom may not initially realize that what happened to them was a sexual violence crime.

Some male victims of sexual violence may describe what happened to them instead as “torture.” The distinction, Sosonska explained, is important for any future court cases and war tribunals. Her office is also trying to educate the public about the fact that men can be victims of sexual violence – something Sosonska said may still not be fully understood.

Anna Mykytenko, who heads the Ukraine team at Global Rights Compliance (GRC), an international legal non-profit, said that Ukrainian witnesses and survivors of sexual violence have testified that Russian troops told them it was a “punishment.”

Mykytenko said that while most cases of conflict-related sexual crimes that were reported and investigated earlier in the war concerned female victims, many of the cases recently recorded have been against male victims, especially against men held in captivity.

“Sexual crimes are fairly common in detention centers and it’s very common for prisoners of war or civilians to be threatened with rape or with the sexual abuse of different types, this is something that’s almost normal for the Russian and Russia-related armed forces,” she said.

‘A systematic approach’

However, it is Rosgvardia – a paramilitary police force deployed to keep order in occupied regions of Ukraine – and the FSB that appear to be driving the campaign of torture and sexual violence against the Ukrainian people, according to the ombudsman and Ukraine’s military intelligence service.

Since the start of the full-scale invasion in 2022, the FSB has opened several regional offices in occupied Ukraine to recruit agents and gather intelligence. According to an official organizational chart published on its website, the FSB has directorates in the self-declared Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics, in Crimea and in the occupied portions of Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions.

Meanwhile, members of Rosgvardia, part of the Russian security apparatus that reports directly to Russian President Vladimir Putin, are working alongside the Russian military to detain activists, quash protests and spread terror among the civilian population in occupied areas.

The SBU, Ukraine’s security service, has managed to track down several Rosgvardia and FSB officials who it said were either the direct perpetrators or the enablers of sexual violence against people held in detention.

The SBU and the Ukrainian regional prosecutor’s office in Kherson have identified Aleksandr Naumenko, the deputy head of Rosgvardia in Russia’s Rostov region, as a suspect in more than a dozen cases. Ukrainian authorities said last May he was responsible for overseeing a detention facility in Kherson during the occupation and that he personally ordered sexual torture of several victims who were electrocuted in their genital areas.

Two other Rosgvardia officers – Oleksandr Chilengirov and Yehor Bondarenkov – have also been accused of torture, including electrocuting at least 24 victims in their genitals at a different detention facility in Kherson.

Dmitry Laikov, an officer with the FSB’s Department for the Defense of Constitutional Order and Fight against Terrorism, is accused of overseeing genital electrocution of a detained Ukrainian citizen in a police station in the occupied city of Nova Kakhovka.

All four men have been indicted and their cases are currently being heard in court, according to Kherson prosecutors. Their whereabouts are unknown.

Ukrainian officials say that it is difficult, but not impossible, to track down individual perpetrators of sexual violence crimes. As of early May, Ukrainian prosecutors had issued official notices of suspicion against 42 Russian officers, filed 19 indictments against 28 individuals and sentenced five people. All of the trials took place in absentia, according to the prosecutors’ office.

Oleksii Butenko, a prosecutor in the Kherson regional prosecutor’s office, said he has no doubt that sexual violence was part of Russia’s strategy to subjugate the Ukrainian people in Kherson and to “destroy the Ukrainian national identity.”

‘They were having fun’

Andrii, a Kherson resident who was held in one of the Russian detention facilities, still remembers the screams of his fellow detainees more than a year and half after he was released. “We were kept in the basement of an office building. It was a small room with no furniture, we slept on cardboard and used a bucket to go to the toilet,” Andrii said.

“I was the last one to be taken in for interrogation, so I could hear them all being tortured in the next room. I couldn’t hear the conversations, only the screams and the moans. It was impossible to sleep because of these screams,” he said, recalling one particularly horrifying incident. “I don’t know who this man was and what happened to him … he was taken out into the corridor, where he was raped with a baton so that everyone could hear and see him.”

According to Andrii, the threats of rape and genital electrocution were the norm among the Russian forces. “They enjoyed it. They were having fun,” he said.

Ukrainian prosecutors have recorded incidents of Russian officials raping or attempting to rape victims using objects including batons, a pipe, a bottle, a handle of a shovel, a stick and a pen.

Sosonska said her office is determined to bring to justice not just the direct perpetrators, but also those who were in charge – whether they ordered them or failed to prevent them.

Her office is focused on prosecuting individuals, but it is also collecting evidence that will be shared with international courts, including the ICC, which prosecutes individuals over grave offenses such as genocide and war crimes, and the International Court of Justice (ICJ), which hears cases brought up against states.

The ICC has already issued an arrest warrant for Putin and Russia’s children’s commissioner, Maria Lvova-Belova, over an alleged scheme to deport Ukrainian children to Russia. The Kremlin has denied the allegations and called the ICC’s actions “outrageous.”

Sosonska said she believes that, just like the child deportations, sexual violence is part of what she called “Russia’s genocidal campaign” against Ukraine.

‘It is happening now’

Oleksii Sivak knew the Russians were coming for him after his neighbor Shapovalenko, the farm manager, was taken.

The 39-year-old sailor from Kherson had helped him put up Ukrainian flags around their neighborhood on Ukrainian Independence Day.

Both men were civilian volunteers. Shapovalenko had been distributing supplies, helping people evacuate and sharing information about the location of Russian troops with Ukrainian military acquaintances, while Sivak ran a soup kitchen, organizing assistance, distributing leaflets and putting up posters and flags.

“We already knew about these torture rooms; we knew that people do not return from there. I went to deliver soup, warned the people I was helping, cut off all contacts and came home to wait for them,” he said. Hiding or trying to go on the run was not an option, he added, saying he was aware Russian forces were targeting the relatives of people they were interested in.

He said eight men came to arrest him – four in military uniforms and four wearing civilian clothes, all with their faces covered. They took him to a local police station and then handed him over to what they said was the FSB.

“First, they put the clamps on my ears and while they were shocking me, they were also beating me with a stick, kicking me, and hitting me with their hands … then they moved these wires from my ears to my genitals. They said, ‘we’re going to sterilize you now’ and things like that, while they were electrocuting my genitals.” Sivak believes he has a pretty good idea why the Russian troops chose to torture him in the way they did and threatened him with rape.

“They wanted to humiliate me. It’s obvious. What do you do to cause a man the most pain? You hurt his wife or his genitals,” he said.

Of the dozens of men he was held with, Sivak said roughly half were subjected to sexual violence. “It’s a whole system. Four people (tortured me) but they were just the hatchet men. Yes, they have no brains, yes, they are animals, but even if they are imprisoned, what about their bosses? Someone was managing them; someone was giving them orders.”

Sivak said he and several other survivors have formed an informal support group and are trying to raise awareness of the fact that men can be victims of sexual violence. Sivak has attended meetings with government officials and conferences where he shared his experiences.

Ukraine is prepared for a lengthy process to bring perpetrators to justice – while protecting the victims. Since the beginning of the full-scale war, Sosonska’s prosecutors, as well as other civil servants and local government officials, have received specialized training on victim-oriented approaches, learning how to recognize conflict-related sexual violence, run investigations and communicate with victims.

Some of the training programs have been provided by the UN in a direct response to the large number of sexual crimes occurring during the occupation. Others are run in cooperation with local non-governmental organizations and victim support groups. The UN has also co-sponsored a psychological helpline specifically aimed at male survivors.

It can take years or even longer for courts to rule and victims to speak out. Some survivors of sexual violence committed by the Bosnian Serb army during the Bosnian war in the early 1990s are only now coming forward.

“Some survivors might be willing to testify within a few months, for some, it may never happen, they may never be ready,” Sosonska said.

As for Shapovalenko, he said he wanted everyone to know what happened to him – and what is still happening to others.

“I want to tell everyone, tell the international community, that it is not like they came, occupied us, stood there with machine guns and left. No, it wasn’t like that,” he said. “And the most terrible thing is not what I am telling you now. The most terrible thing is that it is happening now in the occupied territories.”

Claudia Sheinbaum was campaigning for president in southern Mexico when hooded men approached her car, filming the interaction as they implored her to keep their town from being taken over by gangs.

One man said he felt helpless, and that the government had “never done anything for these lands.” They lived in Chiapas, Mexico’s poorest state and an increasingly important territory for criminal organizations moving illegal drugs, firearms and migrants from neighboring Guatemala. Sheinbaum thanked the men, shaking one of their hands before her car pulled away.

The former Mexico City mayor is the frontrunner in a landmark election this weekend where Mexico is all but certain to emerge with its first female president – a remarkable achievement in a country known for its patriarchal culture and high rates of gender-based violence, where around 10 women are murdered every day.

Sheinbaum is riding on a wave of popularity with the support of her long-time ally, Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and their leftist Morena party. Trailing her in the polls is former senator Xochitl Gálvez, from the conservative PAN party, who is representing a coalition of opposition parties.

But what should have been celebrated as a ground-breaking election has become overshadowed by the bloodiest election campaign in Mexico’s history, and ongoing high levels of violence across the country.

At least 34 political candidates or applicants have been murdered since June 2023 as gangs try and influence those coming into power, according to a report by research group Laboratorio Electoral, which also found hundreds of attacks on candidates and people related to the current electoral process.

And while the murder rate has fallen in Mexico between 2019 and 2022, in absolute numbers the country is still reeling from historically high levels of homicides of around 30,000 people murdered each year, say experts.

The central challenge for the next president will be convincing voters that she can end the near-certain impunity in Mexico; around 95% of all crimes nationwide went unsolved in the country in 2022, according to think tank Mexico Evalua.

‘Paradoxical’

Mexico is a world leader when it comes to gender equality in elected office, which was cemented in 2019 constitution reform. It outflanks several countries in terms of women’s parliamentary representation.

Yet Mexico remains a dangerous place to be a woman, with sky-high femicide rates for the region. The most recent data from Mexico’s National Institute of Statistics and Geography found that at least 11,852 femicides were recorded in the first three years of López Obrador’s presidency – higher than the 7,439 reported during the same period of Enrique Peña Nieto’s presidency (2012-2018).

With security topping voter concerns, both Sheinbaum and Gálvez have largely remained coy about their proposals. Neither has repudiated a nearly two-decades-long approach of relying on the armed forces to tackle organized crime – which has coincided with historically high levels of homicides.

Sheinbaum, a former climate scientist, has pledged to continue with her predecessor’s policies. She has pointed to her record as Mexico City mayor, with her team indicating having improved conditions for police and better intelligence gathering about criminal networks.

Galvez has been critical of López Obrador’s non-confrontational approach to cartels. She has suggested pulling forces back from domestic security roles, increasing the number of police in violent areas, and building a new high security prison.

“In 2018, millions of Mexicans voted for change with hope, but the truth is that it did not happen,” Gálvez said during a presidential debate in April, taking aim at the incumbent’s approach to tackling organized crime.

“Claudia Sheinbaum is offering to continue the hugs for criminals … I am offering to build a Mexico where we can end violence, but above all, to bet on health and education.”

Both have spoken of the need to strengthen police and civilian institutions, and better use intelligence and coordination. “But the extent to which either one of them really means to emphasize or follow through on that is very unclear,” Brewer said.

Experts have been underwhelmed by the lack of new approaches to the security situation, saying there is a connection between militarization and more bloodshed in the country since its inception in 2006, when former President Felipe Calderón declared an all-out-war against criminal groups.

‘Hugs, not bullets’

Incumbent López Obrador won the presidency in 2018 on a platform of demilitarizing the country’s war against drug cartels, vowing to restore peace with “hugs, not bullets.”

Popular social welfare programs would address the root causes of economic insecurity, instead of violent confrontations with criminal groups, he promised. It was a strategy that saw the son of Mexican drug lord Joaquin “El Chapo” Guzman released on the orders of López Obrador in 2019 to avoid bloodshed. He was later re-arrested and extradited to the US.

However, he never really de-militarized public security. López Obrador instead merged several law-enforcement agencies, such as the federal police, to create the National Guard that was, in principle, to be under civilian command. But he soon after placed the body under the Secretary of Defense, sparking criticism across the political spectrum, which said it was furthering militarization in Mexico.

The Supreme Court upheld an opposition complaint and ordered López Obrador to return the National Guard to civilian jurisdiction. He said he would follow suit, but the National Guard still reports to the Secretary of Defense.

This creation was part of what Brewer described as a “populist…and highly visible measure that” intended to give the perception that something is being done about crime. The National Guard has gone on to take over several civilian functions including building infrastructure projects and airport management ­– a situation ripe for corruption, warn Mexico watchers.

Meanwhile, criminal groups have only expanded their reach.

A May report by the Crisis Group documented limited crime-fighting where there were large military deployments in areas most affected by warring cartels. Instead, the report found that “a set of largely unspoken rules has been established, encouraging illegal groups to reduce and conceal the violence they perpetrate,” the report wrote.

“In exchange, authorities have turned a blind eye to a degree of illegality, enabling these organisations to diversify their trafficking operations (including into newer illicit drugs such as fentanyl), expand their extortion rackets, branch out into legal business, and assume greater control of communities and local governments.”

The report found there was also political pressure to reduce the recorded rate of lethal violence has led to “murders being logged under other causes of death or going unrecorded.”

There is a through line between militarization and gender-based violence in Mexico, say experts.

Feminist groups in the country began documenting a “dramatic increase in women being killed by firearms” after 2007 as well as women being targeted in the public sphere,” said Gema Kloppe-Santamaría, assistant professor of Latin American History at George Washington University.

Female homicides often fail to get prosecuted, with 88.6% impunity rate for femicide cases, according to Mexico Evalua.

Both candidates have recognized the crisis of femicide, but Sheinbaum, who holds a sizeable polling lead against Galvaz, has a tense relationship with some feminists “who encountered lots of repression by Mexico City police under the purview of Sheinbaum,” said Kloppe-Santamaría.

Sheinbaum has touted her efforts for women and girls, saying there was “zero impunity” to femicides in Mexico City during her time as leader, and that there was a large reduction in femicides under her watch. Though the claims have not borne out after some scrutiny, say critics.

Amid ongoing “gender-based violence, including femicides and disappearances,” Kloppe-Santamaría said, getting a female president at this moment feels “very paradoxical.”

Millions of South Africans are voting in what is expected to be the most pivotal general election since the end of apartheid.

For months, polls have shown the ruling African National Congress (ANC) party could lose its majority for the first time since Nelson Mandela led it to power in 1994.

While polling can be challenging in South Africa, most analysts believe that the ANC faces its stiffest challenge yet with a population deeply frustrated by the country’s direction. If support for the ANC drops below 50% for the first time, the party will be forced to enter into a coalition government.

ANC leader and South African President Cyril Ramaphosa called Wednesday’s vote “one of the most important elections in our nation’s history,” while addressing a crowd of thousands at Soweto’s FNB soccer stadium on Saturday.

“Our people will decide whether our country continues moving forward with the ANC towards a better, brighter future or backwards to a terrible past,” Ramaphosa said.

The South African leader, who cast his ballot at a polling station in Soweto, told reporters on Wednesday that he has “no doubt whatsoever” that voters will again trust in the ANC.

“This is the day when South Africa decides, decides on the future of our country, (on) who should lead the government of South Africa, and I have no doubt whatsoever in my heart of hearts that the people will once again invest confidence in the African National Congress to continue to lead this country,” Ramaphosa said.

South Africa is the most unequal country in the world, according to the World Bank. Citizens are also contending with the highest sustained rate of unemployment in the world, rampant corruption, feeble economic growth, crippling power cuts and rising violent crime.

Black South Africans, who make up 81% of the population, are at the sharp end of this dire situation. Unemployment and poverty remain concentrated in the Black majority, in large part due to the failure of public schooling, while most White South Africans have jobs and command considerably higher wages.

“We want to see the change,” said Sydney Radebe. “This is a rich country but people don’t have anything,” the 66-year-old actor and filmmaker added. “We don’t have land, we don’t have property… you cannot own nothing and say you are ‘free.’”

Radebe was among the first early morning voters at one of the biggest polling stations in Johannesburg. On a crisp morning as the Southern Hemisphere heads into winter, the line of voters gradually began to grow inside Joubert Park.

Events worker Newton Ugboh, 20, was voting for the first time. “I’m looking for change so I came early in the morning,” he said.

Ugboh said that some of his friends didn’t want to vote as “they think things aren’t going to change at all,” but that there are “big issues” facing young people in the country.

The “unemployment rate is crazy,” he said, adding that it’s a “big-time struggle to find work, most of my friends are unemployed.”

Healthcare worker Roselyne Tswakae, 46, said she’s worried about the future of South Africa’s youth and also believes “it’s time for change.”

“Young South Africans were promised that education would be the key to success, they went to university but they are unemployed and often end up getting involved in drugs, drinking, smoking,” she said.

“We are hoping for the light,” Tswakae added.

Land surveyor David Ngobeni, 31, also said “there isn’t much hope” for young people in South Africa. He says unemployment, inflation, crime and corruption are the “big issues facing everyone right now.”

She said the major problem the country is facing is a lack of jobs. “Some of us we went to school, we graduated but we have the certificates like it’s a display. It’s hurting.”

The mother-of-two added that she is educated but is currently sitting at home most of the time, and sells plastic food containers to make a living.

There are 52 parties on this election’s national ballot, including new parties formed by previous ANC members such as former President Jacob Zuma’s uMkhonto weSizwe Party (MK).

Zuma was forced to resign as president in 2018 and served a brief stint in jail in 2021 for contempt of court. The 82-year-old was barred from running for parliament last week after the country’s Constitutional Court ruled that five years must have elapsed since the completion of his sentence. However, his party will still contest the election and his face will remain on the ballot.

Capping off a heated few months of election campaigning, many of the largest parties held their final rallies this weekend, including the Democratic Alliance (DA), the official opposition party.

“On Wednesday, the ANC will lose the outright majority it has abused for decades to subject the people of this country to unemployment, corruption and misrule… we close the ANC chapter of our history,” DA leader John Steenhuisen told supporters in the town of Benoni, east of Johannesburg. The DA has formed a coalition bloc with smaller opposition parties called the Multi-Party Charter.

This is the seventh general election South Africa has held since the end of white minority rule 30 years ago. A record 27.79 million people are registered to vote – the highest number to date, according to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC.)

The country’s electoral commission (IEC) said that, by 11 a.m. in South Africa, a “significant majority” of voters had already cast their ballots, as lines to vote had formed before the polls opened.

“This, we think, is testament to the enthusiasm of South Africans to record their political choice,” the IEC’s deputy CEO Masego Sheburi added during a briefing at the National Results Center.

Sheburi said that some voting stations opened late, but by midday “good progress” was made with “minimal incidences” across the country. One of the issues some polling stations faced was late delivery of ballot papers, mainly in the Johannesburg area, according to the IEC.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping decried “tremendous sufferings” in the Middle East and called for an international peace conference as leaders from Arab nations visit Beijing this week amid mounting global concern over Israel’s war in Gaza.

“Since last October, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict has escalated drastically, throwing the people into tremendous sufferings. War should not continue indefinitely. Justice should not be absent forever,” Xi said Thursday at the opening of a meeting between top diplomats from China and Arab states, also attended by several leaders from the region.

He also reiterated China’s call for the establishment of an independent Palestinian state, as well as Beijing’s support for a “more broad-based, authoritative and effective international peace conference.”

The diplomatic gatherings in Beijing come as Israel’s war in Gaza remains an urgent global focus, as Israeli forces intensify operations in the enclave’s southern city of Rafah and a humanitarian crisis worsens by the day.

China, which has sought to deepen its relations across the Middle East in recent years, has positioned itself in alignment with the Arab world and the broader Global South on the nearly eight-month-long conflict, criticizing Israel and calling for a ceasefire.

Its stance has put it at odds with the United States, long a key power in the region and a primary backer of Israel. Chinese officials have used the conflict to hit out at Washington – fitting into a larger message from Beijing that frames the US as an aggressor unfairly dominating the current world order.

Xi in his remarks hailed a “common desire for a new era of China-Arab relations” and said their relations could be a “model for maintaining world peace and stability.”

“In this turbulent world, peaceful relations come from mutual respect, and lasting security is built on fairness and justice,” said the Chinese leader, who has pushed for an alternative model for global security to the alliance-based one backed by the US.

Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sisi, United Arab Emirates President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Bahrain’s King Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa, and Tunisian President Kais Saied are in China for state visits that coincide with the ministerial meeting of the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum.

Delegations from 22 Arab states joined that event at Beijing’s Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, according to Chinese state media.

War in Gaza on the agenda

Diplomats attending Thursday’s ministerial meeting were expected to adopt agreements to deepen cooperation across a range of fields and “make a common voice of China and Arab states on the Palestinian question,” China’s foreign ministry said ahead of the gathering.

With its diplomacy this week, China “wants to demonstrate leadership, consolidate ties, and call for ceasefire (in Gaza). It wants to be a particularly strong leader on this issue, at least rhetorically,” according to Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank.

“China has chosen to side with Palestine and the Arab countries. The choice is deliberate as it does suggest a desire to align with Arab countries, and the Global South. But China didn’t create the crisis. It only capitalized on it,” she added.

Xi said China will provide an additional nearly $70 million to alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and to supporting post-conflict reconstruction, adding to roughly $14 million already contributed, as well as $3 million to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) in support of its emergency humanitarian assistance to Gaza.

Israel declared war on Hamas in Gaza following the militant group’s October 7 attack on its territory that killed some 1,200 people and saw more than 200 taken hostage, according to Israeli forces. More than 36,000 Palestinians have died since the start of Israeli military operations in Gaza, according to its health ministry.

China has recognized a Palestinian state since 1988.

Since the start of the war, Beijing has positioned itself as a champion for the broader issue of a two-state solution, which would see the international recognition of a Palestinian state, and dispatched rounds of envoys to the region to meet Arab counterparts. It has not explicitly condemned Hamas for the October 7 attacks.

Beijing last month hosted representatives from rival Palestinian groups Fatah and Hamas for “reconciliation” talks.

Even as Beijing has sought to tighten ties throughout the Middle East in recent years, observers say its influence in the region remains limited.

Beijing has also appeared unwilling to take certain steps to respond to regional effects of the conflict. For example, it said it did not deploy additional naval assets to secure Red Sea shipping lanes that were under attack in recent months by Iran-backed Houthi rebels.

Thursday’s ministerial meeting is the first such gathering since China held its first joint summit with Arab leaders in late 2022 in Saudi Arabia.

Then, Xi was welcomed to the Gulf state with fanfare – cutting a sharp contrast to a tense visit from US President Joe Biden earlier that year amid American outrage over Riyadh’s alleged role in the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi inside its consulate in Istanbul.

Xi is also holding bilateral talks with visiting leaders this week.

Egypt’s Sisi was greeted with a red-carpet welcome to Beijing’s Great Hall of the People on Wednesday, where the two leaders agreed to deepen their strategic partnership, according to a readout from China’s foreign ministry.

The war in Gaza will likely continue through at least the end of the year, an Israeli official warned Wednesday, seeming to dismiss the idea that fighting would end after the military offensive against Hamas in Rafah.

Israel’s national security adviser, Tzachi Hanegbi, said the year 2024 has been “defined as a year of combat” by Israel’s war cabinet.

“We are now in the fifth month of 2024, which means we expect another seven months of fighting to deepen our achievements and achieve our goal of destroying the military and governmental capabilities of Hamas and Islamic Jihad,” Hanegbi said.

The comments came as Israeli tanks – seen Tuesday in central Rafah for the first time since the operation began earlier this month – continued to probe the southern Gaza city on Wednesday, despite mounting global pressure to stop the offensive.

The Israeli government had previously signaled that entering Rafah would be the final stage of its war against Hamas, which attacked Israel on October 7, killing about 1,200 people and taking some 250 people hostage. In response, Israel launched a devastating offensive in Gaza which has killed more than 36,000 people, according to Palestinian officials.

Despite the prospect earlier this month of striking a ceasefire-for-hostages deal with Hamas, the more extreme wing of Israel’s war cabinet had urged that the Rafah offensive go ahead, arguing that destroying the group was more urgent and of greater importance than returning the hostages believed to still be alive in Gaza.

But Hanegbi’s comments suggest that the Rafah operation may not mark the end of hostilities, raising questions about Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s plans to wind down Israel’s campaign and his plans for the post-war governance of Gaza.

While Netanyahu has portrayed Rafah as Hamas’ “last bastion” his forces have been operating in northern areas the military previously said it dismantled the militants’ command structure.

In a radio interview on the Israeli station Reshet Bet, Hanegbi said “it was honestly stated in the first days of presenting the plans to the cabinet that the war would be long.”

“You need to have patience and know how to stand strong. This resilience is what has allowed this nation to survive for 75 years, and even for 3,000 years before that. Just don’t use a stopwatch on ourselves or set ultimatums,” he said.

Israel is pressing ahead with its military offensive in the face of growing global outrage, after an Israeli airstrike on Sunday killed at least 45 people and injured 200 others in Rafah at a camp for displaced people, which Israel had designated as a safe zone.

Video from the Tal al-Sultan camp showed scenes of horror: charred bodies being pulled from the rubble, a man holding the headless body of a child, fire raging from tents in the background.

The strike came days after the International Court of Justice (ICJ) ordered Israel to “immediately halt” its offensive in Rafah, or any actions “which may inflict on the Palestinian group in Gaza conditions of life that could bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part.”

The ICJ said the humanitarian situation in Rafah can now be described as “disastrous” and could worsen still if Israel’s operation in the city continues.

France and Germany said Tuesday that Ukraine should be allowed to use their weapons against targets inside Russia from which Moscow attacks Ukraine.

Speaking at a news conference alongside German Chancellor Olaf Scholz on Tuesday, French President Emmanuel Macron outlined that French weapons sent to Ukraine, including long-range missiles, were permitted to target bases inside Russia.

“Ukrainian soil is being attacked from bases in Russia,” Macron said during his visit to Schloss Meseberg in Brandenburg, Germany. “So how do we explain to the Ukrainians that we’re going to have to protect these towns and basically everything we’re seeing around Kharkiv at the moment, if we tell them you are not allowed to hit the point from which the missiles are fired?”

“We think that we should allow them to neutralize the military sites from which the missiles are fired and, basically, the military sites from which Ukraine is attacked,” Macron continued.

Macron added, however, that “we must not allow them to hit other targets in Russia,” including civilian or other military targets.

Germany’s Scholz echoed Macron’s comments and said that Ukraine was allowed to defend itself as long as it respected the conditions given by the countries that supplied the weapons – including the United States – and international law.

“Ukraine has every possibility under international law for what it is doing. That has to be said explicitly,” Scholz said. “I find it strange when some people argue that it should not be allowed to defend itself and take measures that are suitable for this.”

Western allies of Ukraine have long held the policy that donated weapons should be strictly limited to usage inside Ukrainian territory. The issue is a controversial one, with fears from Western leaders that if their weaponry is used to strike inside Russia, it would escalate the violence and trigger a wider war involving NATO.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has repeatedly asked permission from his allies to expand the usage of the provided weapons to strike inside Russia.

The United States, the largest arms supplier to Ukraine, has previously forbidden Kyiv from firing its weapons inside Russian territory over escalation concerns.

However, in comments that appeared to hint at the possibility of a change in policy, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said on Wednesday that the US would continue to “adapt and adjust” its support for Ukraine.

“Another hallmark of our support for Ukraine over the last two years has been to adapt as the conditions have changed. Battlefields change. As what Russia does has changed in terms of how it is pursuing its aggression escalation, we’ve adapted and adjusted too. And I am confident we will continue to do that,” he said when asked about the possibility of allowing Ukraine to strike Russian soil.

But Blinken also reiterated that at present the US has not enabled Ukraine to strike beyond its borders into Russia with US weaponry.

“We haven’t encouraged or enabled strikes outside of Ukraine. Ukraine, as I’ve said before, has to make its own decisions about the best way to effectively defend itself. We’re going to make sure that it has the equipment that it needs to do that,” Blinken said.

When pressed on his remarks about adjusting and adapting, he added, “We’re always listening. We’re always learning, and we’re always making determinations about what’s necessary to make sure that Ukraine can effectively continue to defend itself.”

Shift in red lines?

Previous red lines drawn by Western leaders in their support for Ukraine have been crossed, including the provision of tanks, which was agreed in early 2023 to help Ukraine breach enemy defensive lines, and F-16 fighter jets, which European governments agreed to in the summer of 2023 after months of diplomatic pressure.

France has supplied Ukraine with an unknown number of SCALP cruise missiles, according to the French Defense Ministry’s website.

The SCALP missiles have a range of up to 155 kilometers (96 miles) and carry a 400-kilogram (881-pound) high-explosive penetration warhead, according to the Missile Threat project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

The SCALP is the equivalent of Britain’s Storm Shadow, which has also been given to Ukraine, and which British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said earlier this month could be used at Kyiv’s discretion.

“In terms of what the Ukrainians do, in our view it is their decision about how to use these weapons, they are defending their country, they were illegally invaded by Putin and they must take those steps,” Cameron said during a visit to Kyiv. “We don’t discuss any caveats that we put on those things. But let’s be absolutely clear: Russia has launched an attack into Ukraine, and Ukraine absolutely has the right to strike back at Russia.”

France has also supplied Ukraine with a range of military weaponry, including Caesar self-propelled howitzers with a range of up to 42 kilometers.

Macron stressed that the French arms are to be used only against targets from which attacks are launched into Ukraine.

“We must not allow them to hit other targets in Russia,” including civilian or other military targets, the French leader said.

But Russian President Vladimir Putin claimed Ukraine could not use the long-range weapons without significant NATO support, and such involvement by the alliance could trigger “a global conflict.”

For instance, “long-range precision weapons cannot be used without space-based reconnaissance,” Putin said Tuesday during a state visit to Uzbekistan.

“Final target selection” or “launch mission” for Western systems need to be made by “highly skilled specialists who rely on this reconnaissance data,” Putin said.

“So, these officials from NATO countries, especially the ones based in Europe, particularly in small European countries, should be fully aware of what is at stake,” he emphasized.

“They should keep in mind that theirs are small and densely populated countries, which is a factor to reckon with before they start talking about striking deep into the Russian territory.”

Meanwhile, Ukraine got a key pledge of support on Tuesday from Belgium, which said it will supply Kyiv with 30 F-16 fighter jets in the next four years, according to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

The deal was part of a bilateral security agreement signed between the two countries Tuesday in Brussels, according to the Ukrainian leader.

The agreement includes at least $1.06 billion in Belgian military aid to Ukraine this year, with Belgium offering its long-term commitment to support Ukraine over the next 10 years, Zelensky detailed in a post on X. The first F-16 jets from Belgium will be delivered this year.

“The agreement guarantees Belgium’s timely security assistance, modern armored vehicles, equipment to meet Ukraine’s air force and air defense needs, naval security, mine clearance, participation in the artillery ammunition coalition, and military training,” Zelensky said.

The meeting follows a similar agreement between Ukraine and Spain on Monday, with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announcing a $1.08 billion weapons deal for Ukraine.

Alongside Belgium and Spain, the United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy, Denmark, Finland and Canada have also signed security agreements.

This story and headline have been updated with additional developments.

CORRECTION: This story has been updated to reflect that Macron made his comments on Tuesday.

At least 45 people were killed and more than 200 others injured after a fire broke out following the Israeli military’s strike on the outskirts of Gaza’s southernmost city, most of them women and children, according to the Gaza Health Ministry and Palestinian medics.

Israel’s escalating assault in Rafah – where some 1.3 million Palestinians were taking shelter before Israel began its operation there – has drawn swift international condemnation, with United Nations agencies, aid groups and multiple governments calling on Israel to immediately halt its offensive.

Israeli tanks were seen advancing further into Rafah on Tuesday for the first time in Israel’s seven-month war against Hamas, signaling a new phase Israel pressing on with its controversial and destructive offensive.

“The warhead portion [of the munition] is distinct, and the guidance and wing section is extremely unique compared to other munitions. Guidance and wing sections of munitions are often the remnants left over even after a munition detonates. I saw the tail actuation section and instantly knew it was one of the SDB/GBU-39 variants.”

Ball also concluded that while there is a variant of the GBU-39 known as the Focused Lethality Munition (FLM) which has a larger explosive payload but is designed to cause even less collateral damage, this was not the variant used in this case.

Serial numbers on the remnants of the munitions also matched those for a manufacturer of GBU-39 parts based in California – pointing to more evidence the bombs were made in the US.

Asked for comment on the munitions used in the Rafah strike at Tuesday’s briefing, Pentagon deputy press secretary Sabrina Singh told reporters: “I do not know what type of munition was used in that airstrike. I’d have to refer you to the Israelis to speak to that.”

Main weapons supplier

The US has long been the biggest supplier of arms to Israel, according to data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), and that support has continued despite the growing political pressure on the Biden administration over the Gaza offensive.

Last month, Biden signed a foreign aid bill that included $26 billion for the Israel-Hamas conflict — including $15 billion in Israeli military aid, $9 billion in humanitarian aid for Gaza and $2.4 billion for regional US military operations.

Hagari told reporters the strike – which he said targeted senior Hamas commanders – used two munitions with small warheads containing 17 kilos of explosives, adding these bombs were “the smallest munitions that our jets could use.” The traditional GBU-39 warhead has an explosive payload of 17 kilos.

Hagari said the deadly fire which occurred following the strike was not caused solely by weapons used by the Israeli military.

“Our munitions alone could not have ignited a fire of this size,” Hagari said, adding the IDF was investigating “what may have caused such a large fire to ignite.”

He added that Israel is looking into whether the strike was “unintentionally set off possible stored weapons in a nearby compound.”

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the deadly airstrike in Rafah was a “tragic error,” but said Israel has vowed to press on with its operation despite international outrage and a US warning not to proceed.

North Korea has adopted a new strategy to contend with its southern neighbor: sending floating bags of trash containing “filth” across the border, carried by massive balloons.

The South Korean military began noticing “large amounts of balloons” arriving from the North starting Tuesday night, detecting more than 150 as of Wednesday morning, according to the country’s Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS).

Photos released by the JCS show plastic bags carried by two giant balloons, with some broken packages spilling scraps of plastic, sheets of paper, and what appears to be dirt onto roads and sidewalks.

The balloons so far contain “filth and garbage” and are being analyzed by government agencies, said the JCS, adding that the military was cooperating with the United Nations Command.

“North Korea’s actions clearly violate international law and seriously threaten the safety of our citizens,” it added. “All responsibility arising from the North Korean balloons lies entirely with North Korea, and we sternly warn North Korea to immediately stop its inhumane and low-level actions.”

Local governments also sent messages to residents in the northern Gyeonggi and Gangwon provinces to warn of the “unidentified objects,” and advised against outdoor activities. The packages risk damaging residential areas, airports and highways, said the JCS.

North Korean leader Kim Jong Un’s younger sister Kim Yo Jong – who is also a senior official in the reclusive regime – referred to the activities as “freedom of expression.”

In a statement published by state-run Korean Central News Agency (KCNA) on Wednesday, Kim said that North Korea had dispersed toilet paper and other waste materials in bags attached to the balloons along the Korean border and central areas.

Kim compared North Korea’s actions to South Korea’s years-long practice of sending balloons with anti-North Korea leaflets towards her nation.

“We’ve done some of the things they always do, but I don’t know why they’re making a big deal like they’ve been hit by a shower of fire,” Kim said.

The move, according to North Korean state media KCNA, was to retaliate against South Korean activists who often send materials to the North – including propaganda leaflets, food, medicine, radios and USB sticks containing South Korean news and television dramas, all prohibited in the isolated totalitarian dictatorship.

Campaigners in the South, including defectors from North Korea, have long sent these materials through balloons, drones, and bottles floating down the cross-border river – even after South Korea’s parliament banned such actions in 2020.

“Scattering leaflets by use of balloons is a dangerous provocation that can be utilized for a specific military purpose,” said Kim Kang Il, North Korea’s Vice Minister of National Defense, KCNA reported on Sunday.

He accused South Korea of using “psychological warfare” by scattering “various dirty things” near border areas, declaring that the North would take “tit for tat action.”

“Mounds of wastepaper and filth will soon be scattered over the border areas and the interior of (South Korea) and it will directly experience how much effort is required to remove them,” Kim said, according to KCNA. “When our national sovereignty, security and interests are violated, we will take action immediately.”

Kim also decried joint US-South Korea military drills, which have increased in recent years as tensions have risen in the Korean peninsula.

The 2020 law that prohibited sending leaflets also restricted loudspeaker propaganda broadcasts, which the South’s military once championed as part of psychological warfare against the North until it withdrew the equipment following a 2018 summit between the two Koreas.

But even after parliament passed the ban, activists told Reuters they planned to continue – including the defector Park Sang-hak, who had been sending materials back to his homeland for 15 years, vowing to continue in an effort to give North Koreans a rare glimpse of the outside world.

Earlier this month, Park’s organization Fighters for a Free North Korea said in a statement it had sent 20 balloons toward North Korea, containing 300,000 leaflets that condemned Kim Jong Un and 2,000 USB sticks containing K-pop and music videos.

“In order to appeal and urge the North Korean people to rise up and put an end to Kim Jong Un … the group is sending the leaflets to the compatriots in North Korea,” the organization said in a statement.

For decades, North Korea has been almost completely closed off from the rest of the world, with tight control over what information gets in or out. Foreign materials including movies and books are banned, with only a few state-sanctioned exceptions; those caught with foreign contraband often face severe punishment, defectors say.

Earlier this year a South Korean research group has released rare footage that it claimed showed North Korean teenagers sentenced to hard labor for watching and distributing K-dramas.

Restrictions softened somewhat in recent decades as North Korea’s relationship with China expanded. Tentative steps to open up allowed some South Korean elements, including parts of its pop culture, to seep into the hermit nation – especially in 2017 and 2018, when relations thawed between the two countries.

But the situation in North Korea deteriorated in the following years and diplomatic talks fell apart – prompting strict rules to snap back into place in the North.

China Coast Guard ships have been in waters around Japanese-controlled islands in the East China Sea for a record 158 consecutive days, according to Tokyo’s latest count released Monday, surpassing the previous record set in 2021.

Analysts fear the uninhabited islands, known as the Senkakus in Japan and the Diaoyus in China, have the potential to become a flashpoint for conflict between the two Asian neighbors.

“The Japanese government takes very seriously the fact that there have been a succession of vessels sailing in the contiguous zone and trespassing in territorial waters,” Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi said at Monday briefing in Tokyo.

The Japanese government chief spokesperson did not say how often Chinese ships entered Japan’s territorial waters, though foreign ships are allowed “innocent passage” through such waters.

A contiguous zone extends another 12 nautical miles beyond a country’s territorial waters, the area that stretches 12 nautical miles from the shore.

Foreign warships are allowed into contiguous zone waters – so the Chinese Coast Guard hasn’t broken any international agreements – but the continuous presence of the Chinese vessels there is seen as a provocation.

Hayashi said Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has raised Tokyo’s “serious concerns” with Chinese Premier Li Gongmin during a trilateral summit with South Korea in Seoul on Monday.

“We will continue to take every possible precaution and surveillance around the Senkaku Islands with a sense of urgency,” he said.

Competing claims

The uninhabited island chain has been a sore spot in Japan-China relations for years.

Claims over the rocky chain, 1,200 miles (1,900 kilometers) southwest of Tokyo but only about 205 miles (330 kilometers) from China’s east coast, date back centuries, and neither Japan nor China is likely to back down over territory considered a national birthright in both capitals.

Tensions heated up in 2012, after Tokyo bought some of the islands from a private Japanese owner, which Beijing took as a direct challenge to its sovereignty claims.

It has frequently dispatched China Coast Guard and other government vessels to the waters around the islands to assert those claims.

“China’s patrol and law enforcement missions in waters off the Diaoyu Dao are legitimate measures taken by China to exercise its sovereignty in accordance with law and are necessary responses to Japanese provocations in violation of China’s sovereignty,” a 2022 Chinese Foreign Ministry document says.

“No country or force should misjudge the strong resolve of the Chinese government to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity,” it says.

Experts have said China makes a statement and sets up a possible legal argument for sovereignty over the islands by keeping government ships near them.

Hayashi, the Japanese government spokesperson, said Monday that Tokyo is answering the Chinese presence around the islands with vessels of its own.

“We ensure a comprehensive security system for territorial waters by deploying Coast Guard patrol vessels that are consistently superior to other party’s capacity,” Hayashi said.

Any Japanese-Chinese incident in the Senkakus raises the risk of a wider conflict, analysts note, due to Japan’s mutual defense treaty with the United States.

Washington has made clear on numerous occasions that it considers the Senkakus to be covered by the mutual defense pact.

China exerts pressure at sea

The extended Chinese presence around the Senkakus comes as Chinese forces assert themselves in two other East Asian hotspots – around Taiwan and near Philippines-controlled features in the South China Sea.

China staged its largest military exercises this year around Taiwan last week after the island’s new democratically elected leader, President Lai Ching-te, who is openly loathed by Beijing for championing the island’s sovereignty and distinct identity, was sworn in.

China’s ruling Communist Party says Taiwan is part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary.

And in the South China Sea, the China Coast Guard has been taking action against Philippine vessels trying to resupply a contingent of Philippine marines on Second Thomas Shoal, using water cannons on that have injured Filipino sailors and damaged their craft.

The developments come as leaders and military officials prepare to gather in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue, Asia’s premier defense summit.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. is scheduled to give the keynote speech Friday evening, with Chinese-Philippine clashes around Second Thomas Shoal expected to be a prime topic.

The US and Chinese defense chiefs are also expected to address the conference.

Thailand’s former Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra has been indicted on lese majeste charges, authorities said Wednesday, the latest twist in a decades-long political saga in the Southeast Asian kingdom.

The case, filed by police, alleged Thaksin violated Thailand’s notoriously harsh royal insult law during an interview he gave in 2015 to the South Korean newspaper Chosun Ilbo.

“The attorney general has decided to indict Thaksin on all charges,” spokesperson Prayuth Bejraguna, told reporters Wednesday. Thaksin will need to appear before the Office of the Attorney General on June 18, after which he will be taken to court. He could not appear at Wednesday’s hearing due to a Covid-19 infection, the spokesperson said.

Thaksin has denied the charges, according to the spokesperson, and has repeatedly pledged loyalty to the monarchy.

Thaksin, who served as prime minister from 2001 until he was ousted in a military coup in 2006, made a dramatic return to Thailand last August after 15 years in self-imposed exile and was taken into custody.

Some experts believe Thaksin may have struck a deal with the country’s powerful conservative and royalist establishment for his return – given his court convictions and the charges against him. Thaksin has denied the claim.

He was sentenced to eight years in prison for conflict of interest, abuse of power and corruption during his time in power, though his sentence was later reduced to one year. In February, the 74-year-old was released from detention after being granted parole, having served just six months in a police hospital.

Thailand has some of the world’s strictest royal defamation laws, and criticizing the king, queen, or heir apparent can lead to a maximum 15-year prison sentence for each offense.

Sentences for those convicted under Section 112 of Thailand’s Criminal Code, or lese majeste law, can be decades long, and hundreds of people have been prosecuted in recent years.

Earlier this month, the death of a young Thai activist in pre-trial detention for lese majeste charges shocked many in the country and sparked renewed calls for justice reform.

Thaksin, a former owner of Manchester City Football Club, is the head of a famed political dynasty that has dominated Thai politics for the past two decades, boasting two former prime ministers.

Even today, Pheu Thai — the latest party of the powerful Shinawatra clan — is in government after entering into a ruling coalition with its former military rivals following the May 2023 election. Thaksin’s daughter Paetongtarn is leader of the party.

Return from exile

Thaksin’s return to Thailand reintroduced a towering and divisive figure to Thailand at a tense political time.

Since his release from detention, Thaksin has traveled the country making a series of public appearances, including to his hometown of Chiang Mai where his support base is concentrated.

Throughout his time in power, Thaksin was hugely popular with Thailand’s rural and working class but his policies were loathed by rich elites and conservatives who accused him of being a dangerous and corrupt populist.

During his physical absence from the country, he retained an outsized influence on Thai politics and has remained at the center of the country’s tumultuous and often violent political landscape.

Thaksin has denied that he remains behind the scenes pulling the strings and insisted he returned to Thailand because he wants to enjoy his retirement and spend time with his family.

Some analysts suggest Thaksin sees himself as an “elder statesman” figure and that his old adversaries in the establishment still consider him a threat.

“The charge is politically driven, there’s no other way to put it,” said Thitinan Pongsudhirak, a professor of political science at Chulalongkorn University.

“They see him as a threat. He didn’t serve a day in jail which caused consternation because it was a double standard, and he wields influence over the Pheu Thai party in government.”

Thailand’s Constitutional Court last week accepted a petition seeking to remove Prime Minister Srettha Thavisin from office over his appointment of a Cabinet member, a lawyer and close Thaksin aide who had served jail time.

Pichit Chuenban was jailed for six months in 2008 for contempt of court after trying to bribe Supreme Court officials in a land case involving Thaksin.

Thitinan said the two cases are connected, and the lese majeste charge was a “way to keep Thaksin in line.”

“It’s an indictment and a reminder to Thaksin of who has real power in Thailand,” he said.

Calls for reform

For years, human rights organizations and free speech campaigners have said lese majeste has been used as a political tool to silence critics of the Thai government.

And rights groups say the right to freedom of expression in Thailand has come under increased attack since nationwide 2020 youth-led protests that saw millions of young people take to the streets calling for constitutional and democratic reforms – for the first time, openly criticizing the monarchy and publicly questioning its power and wealth.

Those protests came four years after King Maha Vajiralongkorn succeeded his father King Bhumibol Adulyadej who had reigned for seven decades.

Despite the change from a military-backed government to civilian leadership last year, surveillance and intimidation against activists and students continues, according to Thai Lawyers for Human Rights.

The legal advocacy group said that since the start of those protests in July 2020 and up until March 2024, at least 1,954 people have been prosecuted or charged for their participation in political assemblies and for speaking out, with 286 of those cases involving children.

A push to reform the lese majeste laws gained significant traction ahead of the 2023 general election, which saw the progressive Move Forward Party win the most votes.

The party was ultimately blocked from forming a government over its reform agenda, and later the Constitutional Court ruled Move Forward violated the constitution through its campaign to amend the lese majeste law and ordered it to stop all related activities.