When British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak announced on Wednesday that the United Kingdom would hold a general election on July 4, many observers wondered: why now?

More specifically, why has the PM called an election that is almost certain to lose? For months, polls have placed Sunak’s Conservative Party way behind the opposition Labour Party and, as things stand, Labour leader Keir Starmer is set to not only win power but have a massive parliamentary majority.

The answer to that question is simple: it’s very unlikely there will be a better time. Almost everything Sunak tries seems to backfire, and it’s not implausible that his favorability with the public will get even worse before the end of the year.

The past couple of days have been relatively good for Sunak. The economy does seem to be recovering, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) updating the UK’s growth forecast and inflation finally returning to something resembling a normal level.

Nothing went catastrophically wrong in the last week or so ahead of calling the election. It’s a low bar, but since his time in office, right now he probably has the most stable base to launch a campaign that he’s ever had or ever will have.

“The PM came into office facing a series a key challenges: inflation, no growth, migration. And he saw dealing with those as his primary mission. And he’s made genuine and significant progress on that. On Tuesday, the IMF upgraded our growth forecasts, yesterday we saw inflation back to normal levels, today we see migration falling as a result of our reforms.

“So we’ve got a solid foundation to say that things are going in the right direction, and the view was that now was the best time to go to the country and say ‘here’s what we’ve done, our plan is working, now who do you think has the plan and the capacity to take the bold action to move this country forwards towards a more secure future.’”

Sunak had to call the election before the end of this year, constitutionally speaking. The fact he hadn’t until this week allowed his opponents to paint him as a coward, terrified of facing the public.

It didn’t help that the country has felt in need of an election for quite a long time, nor that the Conservative Party has looked from the outside like a basket case for a number of years.

Their time in office didn’t begin formidably. In 2010, after 13 years of Labour rule, David Cameron won the general election but didn’t win a majority in parliament. He was forced to make a coalition government with the centrist Liberal Democrats.

Cameron, against the odds, kept the coalition together until the 2015 election, at which he won a surprise majority and secured the first fully Conservative government since 1997.

The celebrations didn’t last long. Holding the 2016 Brexit referendum split his party in two and made governing nearly impossible for his four (yes, four) successors. First up was Theresa May.

A botched snap election and the inability to pass her Brexit deal because her party hated it ended May’s tenure, and she was replaced by Boris Johnson in 2019. Johnson blew his own majority when he became so weighed down by scandal – including the notorious illegal parties in Downing Street during the Covid-19 pandemic – he had to resign in 2022.

Liz Truss took over for 45 days, in which time she managed to cause sufficient economic havoc that the pound sank to its lowest ever level against the dollar, interest rates spiked and inflation ballooned. Eventually, the Conservative Party had enough of the chaos and put Sunak in charge as a safe pair of hands.

Whether or not he has been that is up for debate. Despite what Conservative sources might say about his record in office, his dire poll ratings cannot be denied.

His flagship immigration policy, which would see illegal migrants sent to Rwanda to have their asylum claims processed, has already cost millions despite the fact only one person – voluntarily and given money to do so – has made the trip.

His world-leading smoking ban, which caused Sunak major embarrassment when his own MPs didn’t approve it, has been shelved due to the election.

These are just two recent examples of how things seem to go wrong for Sunak. But the most damaging issue around him is the general sense that he is a bit of a loser and that his own party has so little faith in him. No amount of facts, figures or soundbites can change that he has an undeniable stench of failure around him. The sense that something is inevitable is powerful in politics, and for Sunak, defeat seems inevitable.

Of course, it isn’t. There is a chance that the polls are misleading us, and there is a chance that the Conservative campaign will work.

They are making it personal: a clear choice between Labour leader Starmer and Sunak. Conservatives claim Starmer cannot be trusted on national security, is a shameless opportunist with no principles and has no plan.

Right now is probably the best time to hammer that message home. Labour will have to rush out its manifesto, which will inevitably be picked apart by commentators. The longer Sunak held off, the more time Labour had to get its house in order.

Sunak inherited a mess, no one can deny that. It currently seems unlikely that he has cleaned up that mess enough to earn the Conservatives another term in office. But given the size of the task ahead of him, it makes sense that he seize on this rare period of good news and hope for the best.

Nine people were killed and a presidential candidate was briefly taken to hospital after a stage collapsed under heavy winds at a campaign rally in Mexico on Wednesday.

Candidate Jorge Álvarez Máynez said he was not injured in the incident, which happened during his campaign event in the northeastern city of San Pedro Garza García.

The governor of Mexico’s Nuevo Leon state said at least 121 people were injured and has offered to pay for funeral and hospital costs for the victims. Among the dead is one minor, Governor Samuel García Sepúlveda said in a post on X, adding that some of the injured are stable while others are undergoing surgery.

”What we experienced happened in just a few seconds: A gale came, a sudden wind, and unfortunately, it collapsed the stage, resulting in a fatal accident,” Álvarez Máynez told Reuters.

“I first saw the musicians’ drums, from the group that was going to play, were going to get blown away. When the others noticed, they ran in different directions; some jumped to the sides (of the stage), and I jumped back.”

Videos shared on social media showed the moment a strong gust caused the stage to collapse. Álvarez Máynez and his team can be seen running for cover as the structure, which included a large video screen, falls onto the stage and part of the audience area.

Footage taken in the aftermath of the accident shows a large number of emergency vehicles at the scene, their lights flashing in the darkness, as injured people are carried away. The area was cordoned off and guarded by heavily armed security personnel.

Nearby observations from Monterrey show there were thunderstorms that brought gusty winds to at least 40 to 50 kilometers (around 25 to 30 miles per hour). The stage location was likely impacted by a gust front, which is when gusty winds suddenly pick up and change direction from nearby thunderstorms.

Álvarez Máynez later said he was suspending all campaign activities after the collapse but would remain in the state to monitor the situation and victims.

“We have to have solidarity, there is nothing that can repair an accident, a damage of this nature, and [people] will not be alone in this tragedy and through the consequences that this tragedy will have in their lives,” Álvarez Máynez said.

The 38-year old congressman is representing the center-left Citizens’ Movement party, and was named party candidate in January after García Sepúlveda dropped out. García Sepúlveda was forced to return to his duties as governor as political chaos erupted under his interim replacement, making his presidential campaign untenable.

During his daily press conference, Mexico’s President Andrés Manuel López Obrador sent condolences to the victims’ families and expressed his support for Citizens’ Movement.

“We know that they are not to blame,” he said, calling for authorities to investigate.

The vote looms

Mexico is heading toward its largest election in history on June 2, which has been marred by spiking political violence and assassinations.

The presidential vote is seen as a two-horse race between a former Mexico City mayor, Claudia Sheinbaum, a close ally of the Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador, and a former senator Xochitl Gálvez who is representing the opposition coalition.

With the two women far ahead in the polls, Mexico is almost certainly going to elect its first female president in June.

An estimated 70,000 candidates have stepped forward to compete for more than 20,000 positions, including the national presidency and the governorships of nine states.

So far this year, at least 28 candidates have been attacked, with 16 killed, according to data through April 1 from the research group Data Cívica, a figure set to outpace even the bloodiest election cycles in Mexico’s past.

Speaking to reporters, Álvarez Máynez said Civil Defense teams had checked the “structure of the set” prior to the event but that the severity of the wind gusts had caught organizers by surprise.

“The weather conditions were very atypical: the rain didn’t last for even five minutes … it wasn’t even a storm, it was truly atypical what happened,” he said.

The presidential candidate said an investigation into the incident would take place.

Governor García Sepúlveda urged people in the area to stay indoors, warning of more strong winds, thunderstorms and rain.

Real quick — what did you have for lunch yesterday? Were you with anyone? Where were you? Can you picture the scene? The ability to remember things that happened to you in the past, especially to go back and recall little incidental details, is a hallmark of what psychologists call episodic memory — and new research indicates that it’s an ability humans may share with birds called Eurasian jays.

With episodic memory, “you’re remembering an event or an episode, hence the name,” said James Davies, first author of the study that appeared May 15 in the journal PLOS One. “You kind of mentally relive it. It also involves other kinds of details that make up that experience, so sounds, sights, even your thoughts or your mood at the time.”

Episodic memory differs from semantic memory, which is the recall of factual information, added Davies, a doctoral student in psychology at the University of Cambridge’s Comparative Cognition Lab.

“It’s often helpful to think about episodic memory as remembering, whereas semantic memory is just knowing,” he said. “There’s not really a conscious recall involved.”

While episodic memory is integral to how most people experience the world, it can be difficult for scientists to prove whether nonhuman animals share this ability — after all, they can’t tell us what they’re thinking. However, for several decades, scientists have been devising experiments to delve into animals’ ability to remember previous events, and they have found evidence of episodic-like memory in creatures as varied as pigeons, dogs and cuttlefish.

Corvids — the group of birds that includes crows, ravens and jays — are famously smart, and previous studies have suggested that they are capable of episodic-like memory, which may help them find bits of food that they’ve hidden for later. In 1998, Dr. Nicola Clayton devised an experiment with scrub jays in which the birds appeared to remember what kinds of foods they’d hidden in different spots and how long ago.

This means of finding evidence of episodic-like recall — called a “what, when, where” protocol — has become standard among scientists studying animal memory. But Davies, who is Clayton’s advisee, wanted to find other ways to test for this cognitive capability.

“If you’re only using one methodology, then potentially there’s some error in that method,” Davies said. “If you use multiple different methodologies that test the same thing in quite different ways, then that leads to much more conclusive evidence.”

The researchers devised a fresh approach involving Eurasian jays, and what they found could have implications for the study of human memory.

Testing incidental memory

Davies and Clayton’s new experimental design drew upon the concept of incidental memory.

“The idea is that with human episodic memory, we remember details of events that, at the time, weren’t necessarily relevant to anything. We weren’t actively trying to remember this,” Davies said. “But then if you were to be asked about it a few days later, you might remember those details.”

It’s a seemingly unimportant bit of information that you didn’t consciously commit to memory — for instance, remembering what you had for lunch yesterday. This aspect of episodic memory is sometimes referred to as “mental time travel.”

To find out whether Eurasian jays are capable of mental time travel, the researchers worked with birds that had been trained to find food hidden under cups. Davies set out a row of four identical red plastic cups and allowed the birds to observe him putting a piece of food under one of the cups. The jays then had to recall which cup the food had been hidden under. Easy enough.

For the next step of the experiment, Davies made little changes to the cups’ appearances, such as adding stickers or colorful strings, but once again hid the food under the same cup in the lineup. For a bird looking for a treat, those strings and stickers were seemingly unimportant incidental info — at this point, they only needed to worry about the position of the cup to find the food.

But in the final stage of the experiment, those little details of cup decoration became unexpectedly important. Davies changed the position of the cups so that the birds could no longer rely on the once-crucial information of which cup in the row contained food. (The treats had since been removed from the cups, to rule out the possibility that the birds were just finding the food by scent.) However, after a 10-minute break, the jays were still able to find the cups with the treats.

Davies suggested that the birds’ mental process might have involved asking themselves, “‘Where’s the food? I remember going to the one with the black square on it. I’ll go to that one,’” Davies said. The jays appeared to be going back in their memories to retrieve details about the cup decorations, and they were highly successful in using that information to find the hidden food.

“This study provides strong evidence for episodic memory in Eurasian jays,” said Dr. Jonathon Crystal, a provost professor of psychological and brain sciences at the University of Indiana Bloomington who was not involved with the project. “If you can answer that unexpected question after incidental encoding, that becomes a strong argument that you can remember back in time to the earlier episode, which is at the heart of documenting episodic memory.”

Crystal said that studies such as this one, which aim to identify animals’ abilities to form episodic memories, are important in part because of their potential role in the field of human memory research.

“The big disease of memory is Alzheimer’s disease, and of course, the most debilitating aspect of Alzheimer’s disease is a profound loss of episodic memory,” Crystal said.

Since Alzheimer’s drugs for humans invariably undergo animal testing before they reach human trials, he noted that it’s important for scientists to be able to drill down into whether these drugs actually affect the kind of memories that Alzheimer’s patients lose.

“It’s not enough to just improve memory, we need to improve episodic memory,” he said, and a better understanding of how to test for episodic-like memory in animals could help make that possible.

Kate Golembiewski is a freelance science writer based in Chicago who geeks out about zoology, thermodynamics and death.

A far-right coalition of parties in the European Parliament has expelled Germany’s Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party following their leading candidate’s comments about Nazi SS soldiers during World War II.

“The Bureau of the Identity and Democracy Group in the European Parliament has decided today to exclude the German delegation, AfD, with immediate effect,” said the coalition – called the Bureau of the Identity and Democracy Group, or ID Group – in a statement on Thursday.

“The ID Group no longer wants to be associated with the incidents involving Maximilian KRAH, head of the AfD list for the European elections,” it said.

Krah, the AfD’s leading candidate in next month’s European elections, has already been banned from making public appearances by his party, following controversial comments about Nazi SS soldiers in Italian newspaper La Repubblica over the weekend.

In the newspaper interview, Krah is quoted as saying: ”Before I declare someone a criminal, I want to know what he did. Among the 900 thousand SS men, there were also many farmers: there were certainly a high percentage of criminals, but not all of them were. I will never say that anyone who wore an SS uniform was automatically a criminal.”

The SS (Schutzstaffel) was a major paramilitary organization under Adolf Hilter, whose primary role was guarding the concentration camps in World War II.

French far-right leader Marine Le Pen from her National Rassemblement (RN) Party has also said they would no longer sit in the same parliamentary group as the AfD after next month’s elections.

AfD on Wednesday said that Krah’s controversial statements had caused ”massive damage to the party in the current election campaign, for which the candidate had provided the pretext.”

The statement added that Krah has taken ”full responsibility” for his actions and agreed to step down from the AfD’s federal executive board with immediate effect.

Families of Rohingya people trapped in Myanmar’s west are desperately trying to contact loved ones after a weekend of widespread arson attacks displaced up to 200,000 people and caused extensive destruction of homes.

The country’s Rohingya have long suffered mass atrocities and forced displacement that many – including UN experts – consider to be genocide, perpetrated by the country’s military. Now, they are caught between warring forces in a deepening conflict that has unleashed more violence against the Muslim-majority community.

Since seizing power in a coup in February 2021, the military has been fighting a widening civil war against ethnic armed groups and people’s resistance forces across Myanmar.

In the western state of Rakhine, the Arakan Army, a powerful ethnic-minority armed group battling Myanmar’s military junta, said it seized a predominantly Rohingya town close to the Bangladesh border.

Reports from activists and relatives of residents have emerged of AA soldiers torching and looting Rohingya houses in the town of Buthidaung, preventing people from returning home, confiscating phones and threatening to kill those who try to contact family abroad.

A junta-imposed internet and telecoms blackout in the state is making it almost impossible for relatives to speak with family members there and for journalists, activists and international monitoring groups to verify exactly what is unfolding.

“Then, my brother-in-law told me that my family were displaced, and my home was burned down by the Arakan Army,” he said.

Rohingya rights activists and former officials said about 200,000 people had been forced to flee their homes to escape the fires and that many people, including women and children, had spent multiple nights hiding out in open paddy fields with no food, medicine, or belongings. There are also reports of an unconfirmed number of casualties.

“The entire town is burning,” said Nay San Lwin, a Rohingya activist originally from Buthidaung, and co-founder of the Free Rohingya Coalition. “Few houses remain intact, only a few.”

The violence echoes attacks on the stateless Rohingya community in 2016 and 2017, when Myanmar’s military launched a brutal campaign of killing, rape and arson that is currently subject to a genocide investigation at the International Court of Justice.

An estimated 1 million Rohingya people live now in what many consider to be the world’s largest refugee camp in Bangladesh, after hundreds of thousands fled the military’s “clearance operations.”

Many of those who remained in Myanmar live in apartheid-like conditions and face heavy restrictions on their movement, education and healthcare. More than 100,000 Rohingya people have been kept in squalid displacement camps by the military and government in the Rakhine state capital for the past 10 years. Others have made perilous boat journeys to Indonesia, choosing to risk their lives at sea over enduring inhumane conditions at home.

Young Rohingya men also face forcible conscription from the junta, the AA and armed Rohingya insurgent groups both in Myanmar and in the sprawling Bangladesh camps where gang violence is escalating.

Experts with the Special Advisory Council for Myanmar on Sunday warned that the Rohingya are “again at risk of genocide” and urged the UN Human Rights Council to convene a special session to address the “worsening human rights emergency in Myanmar.” UN rights chief Volker Türk said in a statement on Sunday that “this is a critical period when the risk of yet further atrocity crimes is particularly acute.”

Buthidaung attacks

Fighting between the Arakan Army and Myanmar’s military erupted in November after a shaky ceasefire broke down. The AA has made significant territorial gains in Rakhine state in recent months and last week announced that it had taken control of all junta military bases around Buthidaung, as well as the town itself.

Aung Kyaw Moe, a Rohingya adviser to Myanmar’s shadow National Unity Government – a continuation of the administration deposed in the coup – wrote on Saturday that the AA had ordered residents to leave the town in the days before the attack.

“Two days before AA call elders for meeting to leave the houses as soon as possible AA will confiscate the Buthidaung downtown,” he wrote on X, adding “the Rohingya said they will not leave because they have no where to go.”

In recent weeks, the population of Buthidaung had swelled as residents fled fighting in nearby villages, Rohingya activists said.

Nay San Lwin from the Free Rohingya Coalition – who managed to speak with several residents of Buthidaung – said that, at 9:30 p.m. local time on May 17, AA soldiers entered the town and shortly after began torching homes. Reports also suggested that junta airstrikes and artillery had hit Buthidaung that day but there were no military soldiers left in the town, he said.

“I asked them about who are conducting the burning – they strictly said the AA members came into town and started shooting into the air and warning people to get out of their houses or you will be burned alive,” he said.

John Quinley, director of human rights group Fortify Rights, said there is “clear destruction of civilian infrastructure including Rohingya civilian homes.”

“What we have in Buthidaung over the last few days is the junta conducting artillery shelling and airstrikes… and signs pointing to the AA conducting widespread arson over the weekend,” he said.

AA spokesperson Khaing Thu Kha wrote on Telegram Friday evening that the armed group was “evacuating the Muslim communities in Buthidaung and providing food, shelter, and medical care for them including the children, the women, and elderly persons.”

The AA has denied it torched the town, saying in a statement on May 20 that it “adheres to its principle of fighting under the military code of conduct and never targets non-military objects.”

It accused the Myanmar military, along with allied Rohingya militant groups – which it refers to as “Bengali terrorists” – of destroying Buthidaung.

The AA said that on May 17 the Myanmar military “launched a prolonged aerial attack on Buthidaung township until midnight as their last desperate attacks.”

A previous statement from the AA in late April said that homes of non-Muslim people living in Buthidaung had been burned down in attacks by “junta-backed Bengali Muslim terrorist groups” and “other Muslim militants recently armed and trained by the junta.”

Farooq, whose family were forced to flee the fires, said it was the AA who set fire to villages and the homes of the Rohingya. There was no active fighting with the military at the time, he said.

“In Buthidaung, when my (family) home and when my mom was asked to leave the village, there was no fight at all. There is no military left, no base, no junta there,” he said.

He said AA soldiers had warned residents there not to contact people living abroad and anyone caught with a Bangladesh SIM card “will be executed.”

Nay San Lwin also said he had heard reports that AA soldiers were taking cash and mobile phones from fleeing Rohingya.

“They are afraid they have footage (of them) torching these houses,” he said.

Humanitarian offices of Medecins Sans Frontières in the town were burned down on April 15, the group said. “We hear reports of more than 200 homes being burned down and witness thousands of people who are displaced by the violence seeking refuge in an area directly across from where our office was located,” it said at the time.

Warnings of further atrocities

An immediate concern is a humanitarian crisis in Rakhine state, with newly displaced residents unable to access food or clean water.

“There are no NGOs at all, who will distribute food for them? The Myanmar military has blocked all access,” said Nay San Lwin. “Also they are confining people to these villages. They are not allowed to leave.”

The violence has sparked a flurry of condemnations from human rights groups and the international community, calling for a halt in the fighting, to protect civilians, and for humanitarian aid to be allowed into Rakhine.

State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller said the US is “deeply troubled by the reports of increased violence” in Rakhine state and warned there are “risks of further atrocities occurring.”

“The military’s previous acts of genocide and other crimes against humanity targeting Rohingya, in addition to its history of stoking intercommunal tensions in Rakhine State and elsewhere across the country, underscore the grave dangers to civilians.”

Myanmar’s National Unity Government said on Tuesday that it has “repeatedly acknowledged that shameful past actions and failures in Myanmar allowed horrendous atrocities to be committed against minority communities, including the Rohingya, Rakhine and others in Rakhine state.”

“We are committed to ensuring that these crimes are never repeated.”

China has launched two days of large-scale military drills surrounding Taiwan in what it called “punishment” for so-called “separatist acts,” days after the self-ruling island swore in a new democratically elected leader who called on Beijing to cease its intimidation tactics.

As part of the drills, dozens of Chinese fighter jets carrying live ammunition conducted mock strikes against “high-value military targets” of the “enemy” alongside destroyers, frigates and missile speedboats, according to China’s state broadcaster CCTV.

The exercises, which started early on Thursday and will encircle Taiwan, pose the first real test for newly elected Lai Ching-te as he attempts to manage relations with the island’s powerful authoritarian neighbor.

China’s ruling Communist Party says Taiwan is part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary.

China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said it launched joint military drills involving the army, navy, air force and rocket force in areas around Taiwan at 7.45 a.m. on Thursday.

The drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait – a narrow body of water separating the island from mainland China – as well as north, south and east of Taiwan. They are also taking place in areas around Taiwan’s outlying islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, located just off China’s southeastern coast, the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command said in a statement.

PLA Naval Colonel Li Xi, spokesperson for the command, called the exercises “a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces and a serious warning against interference and provocation by external forces.”

The Chinese military also deployed about a dozen Chinese warships around Taiwan, as well as a dozen Coast Guard vessels near Taiwan’s outlying islands, according to the official.

Taiwan has deployed its own warships to monitor the situation, the official said, adding no Chinese aircraft carrier were involved in the drills so far.

‘Irrational provocations’

Taiwan’s Lai is detested by Beijing as a “dangerous separatist” for championing the island’s sovereignty and distinct identity. He succeeded two-term president Tsai Ing-wen to start an unprecedented third consecutive term in power for the ruling Democratic Progressive Party.

Beijing has denounced Lai’s inauguration speech, during which he called on China to cease its intimidation of Taiwan.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry has condemned China’s drills as “irrational provocations and actions that undermine regional peace and stability.”

In a statement Thursday, the ministry said it had dispatched sea, air and ground forces in response to the drills.

“We stand by with firm will and restraint. We seek no conflicts, but we will not shy away from one. We have the confidence to safeguard our national security,” it said.

Taiwan’s presidential spokeswoman Karen Kuo said in a statement: “It is regrettable to see China threatening Taiwan’s democracy and freedom and regional peace and stability with unilateral military provocations.”

“In the face of external challenges and threats, we will continue to defend democracy and have the confidence and ability to protect national security,” Kuo added.

Taiwan’s 23 million people have long become used to the threat of China’s war drills, and Thursday life continued as normal in the capital Taipei.

While Taiwanese news outlets were reporting on the Chinese drills, it was far from the only headline on their agenda, which also included recent political bust ups in the legislature, and even information on filing taxes during the tax season.

Taipei’s main stock index, the TAIEX, was 0.26 percent up in mid-afternoon trade.

Propaganda push

China’s military drills are as often as much about playing to a domestic audience as signaling intentions internationally. China’s military and state media churned out propaganda and highlighted coverage of the drills, which remained a top trending topic Thursday on tightly controlled Chinese social media platforms.

Footage of the drills released by the PLA’s Eastern Theater Command showed a guided missile frigate, the Nantong, and a pilot climbing into a fighter jet at a military base.

The rhetoric coming from Chinese state media and the PLA portrayed the exercises as a practice run for encircling Taiwan, and even threatening small outlying islands that lie close to China’s mainland.

China’s state broadcaster CCTV said multiple destroyer and frigate formations of the Eastern Theater Command Navy “maneuvered at high speed in multiple directions in the waters surrounding Taiwan, creating an omnidirectional approach in pushing toward the island.”

Meanwhile, the command’s air force dispatched dozens of fighter jets to Taiwan’s main island and outlying islands, according to CCTV.

“Under the support and cover of the Army and the Rocket Force, multiple types of aircraft were organized and loaded with live ammunition, flew to the predetermined airspace to establish multiple strike positions, and coordinated with destroyers, frigates, and missile speedboats to simulate attacking the ‘enemy’s’ high-value military targets and reconnaissance and patrol aircraft,” the report said.

In another report, CCTV published a series of posters of what it calls “the magic weapons killing separatists” promoting Taiwan independence.

They include the J-20 and J-16 fighter jets, the Type 052 destroyer and Type 071 amphibious transport dock, and the Dongfeng ballistic missile. Though the report did not specify if they were being used in the ongoing drills.

Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said Beijing was trying to stress Taiwan’s older and less numerous hardware.

For instance, “Taiwan’s F-16s are over 20 years old and every flight hour tasked to those air frames draws the fuselage and equipment ever closer to refurbishment, which takes them out of service for 1-4 months. It also stresses the force overall, keeping them on edge,” he said.

Schuster said in addition to the drills around Taiwan’s main island, the pressing of China’s Coast Guard and other forces into waters close to the outlying islands controlled by Taipei is “provocative.”

“It puts Taiwan on the spot. If they react militarily or forcefully, they risk triggering a conflict,” he said.

Rising tensions

Under leader Xi Jinping, China has grown more assertive and ramped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Taiwan as the island democracy tightens informal ties with the United States.

In August 2022, China staged massive war games around Taiwan to show its displeasure with then US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei. Beijing fired missiles into waters surrounding the island and simulated a blockade with fighter jets and warships, in its largest show of force in years.

A similar encirclement exercise was also held in April 2023.

Chinese warplanes now regularly fly into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (ADIZ) and across the Median Line in the Taiwan Strait – an informal demarcation point that Beijing does not recognize but until recent years had largely respected.

Beijing has also exerted pressure on Lai in the lead-up to his inauguration. On May 15, days before Lai took office, Taipei said it detected 45 Chinese military aircraft around Taiwan, the highest single-day number this year.

Evan A. Feigenbaum, vice president for studies at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, calls China’s latest drills “an intimidation tactic, part of a pattern, not a sign of imminent war.”

“Beijing has a robust coercion kitbag from which it will mix and match, ratchet up and back and up again to signal its range of options to coerce and inflict pain,” he wrote on social platform X.

Some defense experts noted that the name of China’s latest military exercises “Joint Sword-2024A” suggests another round of drills could follow later this year.

Drew Thompson, a senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, noted the drills were part of a pattern.

Tensions are once again ratcheting up in the Taiwan Strait, with China launching military drills encircling Taiwan just days after the democracy swore in a new leader long loathed by Beijing.

The exercises began early Thursday, in what China described as “punishment” for “separatist acts” – alluding to the election and inauguration of the self-governing island’s new President Lai Ching-te.

Though relations between the two sides have been steadily worsening in recent years, this latest escalation marks a significant test for Taiwan’s new leader, whose ruling party has championed democracy in the face of growing threats from its authoritarian superpower neighbor.

China’s ruling Communist Party says Taiwan is part of its territory, despite never having controlled it, and has vowed to take the island, by force if necessary. And it has become much more bellicose under Chinese leader Xi Jinping.

Here’s what you need to know.

What’s happening with the drills?

The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said it launched joint military drills involving the army, navy, air force and rocket force in areas around Taiwan early Thursday morning.

The drills are being conducted in the Taiwan Strait – a narrow body of water separating the self-ruling island with mainland China – as well as north, south and east of Taiwan.

They are also taking place in areas around Taiwan’s outlying islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin, located just off China’s southeastern coast, the command said in a statement.

Naval Colonel Li Xi, spokesperson for the command, called the exercises “a strong punishment for the separatist acts of Taiwan independence forces and a serious warning against interference and provocation by external forces.”

China’s military drills are often as much about playing to a domestic audience as signaling intentions internationally. Chinese state media heavily covered Thursday’s drills while the military also posted footage of one of its vessels on social media. The exercises subsequently went viral on China’s heavily regulated internet.

Taiwan’s Defense Ministry said in a statement it had dispatched sea, air and ground forces to respond to China’s drills. It expressed regret to “such irrational provocations and actions that undermine regional peace and stability.”

The island’s presidential office said in a statement that it was “confident and capable of defending national security,” accusing China of “using unilateral military provocation to threaten Taiwan’s democracy and freedom.”

What triggered this?

The most obvious answer is Lai’s inauguration on Monday.

Lai’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), now in power for a historic third term, views Taiwan as a de facto sovereign nation with a distinct Taiwanese identity.

Ahead of Taiwan’s elections back in January, Beijing had warned that a Lai victory could inflame tensions and spark conflict – repeatedly framing the vote as a choice between “peace and war.”

Taiwanese voters dismissed those warnings, returning the DPP to power – although two opposition parties that favor closer ties with China now have a majority in parliament.

China’s government and state media regularly rebuke Lai, calling him a dangerous separatist, “troublemaker” and “war maker,” while rejecting his repeated offer of talks.

Their vehement dislike of Lai is rooted in his political past, as well as Beijing’s refusal to deal directly with a huge swathe of Taiwan’s leaders.

The 64-year-old former doctor and political veteran was once an open supporter of Taiwan independence – a red line for Beijing.

His views have tempered over the years, and he now says he favors the current status quo, saying there is “no plan or need” to declare independence since the island is “already an independent sovereign country.”

But Beijing has never forgiven him for those early comments – making its stance clear with the drills on Thursday.

Lai, too, has set the tone for his new administration’s approach to China – using his inaugural speech on Monday to declare that a “glorious era of Taiwan’s democracy has arrived,” and reiterating a determination to defend its sovereignty.

He also called on Beijing to cease its “intimidation” of Taiwan and respect that its people want to decide their own destiny.

What’s the relationship between China and Taiwan?

The bloody Chinese Civil War ended with the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) taking power in the mainland, establishing the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in Beijing in 1949.

The defeated Nationalist Party fled to Taiwan, moving the seat of their Republic of China (ROC) government from the mainland to Taipei.

Both proclaimed themselves the sole rightful government of the entire Chinese territory.

In recent years, Taiwan has downplayed its territorial claims over mainland China, and is today a vibrant democracy, with its own military, currency, constitution and elected government.

But it is not recognized as an independent country by most governments in the world. Over the decades it has become increasingly isolated diplomatically – with an increasing number of governments switching their diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing. But unofficial diplomatic ties with many Western nations have in fact been bolstered in recent years, in part thanks to China’s sabre-rattling.

Meanwhile, under Xi, China has become increasingly assertive in foreign policy and grown more authoritarian at home.

China has cut official communication with Taiwan since the the DPP took office in 2016, and has ramped up economic, military and diplomatic pressure on the island.

At the same time, ties between Taipei and Washington have become more robust, with increased arms sales and high-level political engagement under Lai’s popular predecessor Tsai Ing-wen. This has infuriated Beijing, spurring it to unleash more pressure on Taiwan and sending cross-strait relations on a downward spiral.

Where does the US stand in this?

The US formally switched diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 – but has long trod a delicate middle path.

In what is known as the “One China” policy, Washington recognizes the People’s Republic of China as the sole legitimate government of China; it also acknowledges Beijing’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never accepted the Chinese Communist Party’s claim of sovereignty over the island.

The US maintains close unofficial ties with Taiwan, which have been strengthened in recent years. It is bound by law to provide the democratic island with the means to defend itself, and supplies the island with defensive weaponry.

American lawmakers regularly visit Taiwan and have supported legislation to bolster US support for the island and its defensive capabilities.

But it has historically remained deliberately vague on whether it would defend Taiwan in case of a Chinese invasion, a policy known as “strategic ambiguity.”

After the island’s election in January, the US sent an bipartisan delegation to Taiwan, where they met with Lai and Tsai – and promised that American support for Taiwan will continue no matter who wins the upcoming US election.

Beijing on Tuesday also announced sanctions against former US House Representative Mike Gallagher, who led that delegation, citing his “remarks and actions” that “interfere” in China’s internal affairs.

British lawmaker Craig Mackinlay has received a standing ovation in Parliament as he returned to the House of Commons after undergoing a quadruple amputation following a sepsis infection.

Mackinlay, who is a member of parliament for the governing Conservative party, representing South Thanet in southeast England, fell ill on September 28, 2023.

He told the BBC that he started to feel ill and turned “a very strange blue” within about 30 minutes.

“My whole body, top to bottom, ears, everything, blue,” he said in an interview released Wednesday, describing the symptoms of septic shock.

Sepsis is the body’s extreme response to an infection. It can be spurred by any type of infection, even a minor one, and occurs when germs enter a person’s body and multiply, causing illness and organ and tissue damage. The life-threatening condition requires urgent medical care to prevent organ damage and death.

In some cases, sepsis or the infections leading up to it are not properly identified because they can come with a wide range of symptoms such as confusion or disorientation, shortness of breath, high heart rate, fever, shivering or feeling very cold, extreme pain or discomfort, and clammy or sweaty skin, according to the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Mackinlay was put into an induced coma with multiple organ failures, and told UK media outlet GB News that there is a period of around three weeks where he can’t remember what happened.

When he woke up, he found that his hands and feet had turned black.

“I could see these things were probably lost,” he said.

On November 30, Mackinlay recorded a video from his hospital bed in which he showed the damage to his limbs.

“it’s caused the complete death of my hands and also my feet,” he said, describing them as “gnarled, dry, dessicated” and revealing that he was due to undergo a quadruple amputation the next day.

“The reality is I probably shouldn’t have survived this far,” said Mackinlay.

“The grim reaper let me survive, but he’s taken his payment in four of my limbs,” he adds.

Mackinlay’s wife, Kati Mackinlay, told GB News that doctors told her he had only a 5% chance of survival, but she remained hopeful.

“I never said goodbye, I never thought that’s it for Craig,” she said.

“I always knew that Craig would pull through and he did.”

The operation, in which his arms were amputated from the elbow and his legs from the knee, took around 4-5 hours, Mackinlay told GB News. He then went through a rehabilitation process to learn how to live with prosthetic arms and legs.

He has also some scarring to his face and ears due to a lack of blood supply, he added.

Nonetheless, Mackinlay is eager to get back to work.

“Get back into the saddle, get back into Parliament, get back doing the things I enjoy,” he told GB News.

When Maxwell Winchester and his wife arrived in the South Pacific island of New Caledonia nearly two weeks ago, they were excited for what would be their first child-free holiday since becoming parents.

But what was supposed to be a romantic getaway has instead left the Australian couple stranded and far from their children back in their home state Victoria, after deadly riots broke out across the French territory sparked by electoral changes from the national government.

In the hotel where they’re staying, food and medicine are running low, he said, and there is no sense of when help is arriving; evacuations for foreign nationals have paused on Thursday due to French President Emmanuel Macron arriving for talks.

“We have people who have run out of medicine … People are running out of food. Other Australians stranded have had to go scrounge coconuts to eat,” he said.

Now, the couple and other foreign nationals stuck on the island are desperately trying to find a way home, with commercial flights canceled and the main international airport closed.

“Our embassy went AWOL the first day, and we only first heard from (them) last night for the first time for a welfare call,” he said. “We’re frustrated with it all … What I’m hoping is that our government will evacuate us promptly.”

Australia and New Zealand began sending government planes to evacuate nationals starting Tuesday, with the Australian embassy in New Caledonia saying on Facebook that 108 Australians and other tourists were successfully transported from the island to Brisbane on two flights on Tuesday.

“We continue to work with partners to support the departure of all Australians who want to leave,” it said in a post on Wednesday.

But Winchester said he and other tourists have no sense of when it might be their turn. The local government estimates there are around 3,200 people waiting to leave or enter the island.

Australia’s Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) says on its website it is “communicating directly with registered Australians in New Caledonia about departure options from New Caledonia,” and has instructed Australians on the island to register their details on the agency’s online portal.

Deadly unrest

Lying some 930 miles (roughly 1,500 kilometers) to the northeast of Brisbane, New Caledonia has long been a popular destination for both Australians and New Zealanders looking for some Pacific sunshine and beaches.

But it is also a hangover of France’s colonial past, a territory on the other side of the globe where many indigenous inhabitants suffer from entrenched poverty and have long chafed under Paris’ rule.

The latest protests, the worst since the 1980s, were sparked by anger among indigenous Kanak people over a constitutional amendment approved in France that would change who is allowed to participate in elections, which local leaders fear will dilute the Kanak vote.

The unrest has killed at least six people, and has left a trail of burned cars and looted stores, with road barricades restricting access to medicine and food.

The situation got so bad that Macron has been forced to fly some 16,000 kilometers (10,000 miles), landing on an island seething with resentment from indigenous community leaders, business owners and stranded tourists.

Macron arrived in New Caledonia on Thursday, telling reporters that “a return to peace” was his top priority – but that French security forces will stay in the territory for “as long as necessary, even during the Olympic Games.”

Three thousand French security forces have already been deployed, with a number of those still arriving Thursday, he said. He added that he believes that the state of emergency “should not be extended,” provided that all political forces on the island issue a “clear call for the roadblocks to be lifted.”

As part of his visit, Macron will “set up a mission” in New Caledonia, government spokesperson Prisca Thevenot said at a press conference earlier this week. The visit comes as France prepares for the Paris Olympic Games, which will be held from July 26 to August 11.

Roads barricaded

But Macron’s arrival was little solace for Winchester and his wife, who are staying at a resort outside the city center. They described the anxiety and desperation inside among hotel guests and staff alike. The resort has barricaded all roads leading to the hotel, leaving just one entrance that is guarded 24/7, he said.

And among the stranded tourists, frustration is growing over what they say is a lack of assistance or clear instructions from their governments.

The Australian government is only notifying its nationals of evacuation plans 30 minutes before the flight “for security reasons,” said Winchester – meaning “everyone is constantly on edge, and they’re frightened to leave the hotel rooms in case they get a call telling them (to get on the plane).”

“The Australian Government stands ready to assist more tourists out of New Caledonia and has planes ready to fly. We have not been given clearances for additional flights. We know this is frustrating for the Australians who remain,” she wrote on X, formerly Twitter. “We are working to ensure flights tomorrow.”

With the international airport closed, evacuation flights can only leave from the domestic airport, located close to the city center – which is largely inaccessible to people staying further away, like Winchester and other guests at their resort, due to roadblocks and gun violence on the main highways.

“My wife and I don’t have a car, so we have no way to get to the city if we’re put on a flight,” he said. “We don’t know if they’re going to come and evacuate us from the location we’re in or not. But to drive through to the city is very dangerous in the moment.”

New Zealand nationals on the island are in a similar predicament – with their governments instructing them to drive to the city and leave their cars at a hotel to avoid being hijacked, before being picked up there for evacuations, he said.

“And with Macron’s visit, it could get worse,” he said. “The French government has not handled this well. And if (Macron) says the wrong things and then goes back to France, it could all kick off again – that’s our fear.”

In the meantime, stranded foreign nationals continue searching for a way out – while racking up hefty bills, with Winchester describing tourists spending tens of thousands of dollars on food, accommodation and supplies.

The couple is now trying to travel into the city with some New Zealand nationals, and find a flight out with them – hoping for safety in numbers on the perilous drive.

“From our own government now, their position is the French will fly us out, and we’re not confident in the French government’s ability to keep us safe,” he said.

Stargazers are in for a treat this week: The full moon returns for its May engagement, peaking on Thursday morning.

May’s full moon is known as the flower moon, a reference to its appearance in late spring, when many flowering plants begin to bloom again after their winter slumber. The glowing orb will reach maximum illumination on Thursday at 9:53 a.m. ET, according to NASA.

The best time to view the moon, though, is at night on Wednesday and Thursday, since it will be below the horizon during its peak in some regions, according to the Farmer’s Almanac. The flower moon will begin to rise after sunset on Wednesday, reaching its highest point after midnight, per EarthSky.

In some parts of the world, including the Washington, DC area, the full moon will come so close to the bright star Antares on Thursday night that the star will appear to vanish behind the moon, according to NASA.

The flower moon name is thought to have originated among the Algonquin people who live in Canada and parts of the northeastern United States, according to the Farmer’s Almanac. But ancient groups coined several creative names for May’s full moon that mark the arrival of warmer weather and the new life that grows during the spring.

Its old English name is “milk moon,” according to NASA, a reference to the archaic English word for the month we now call May. The eighth-century monk St. Bede the Venerable referred to May as the month of three milkings –– in the medieval era, people believed that cows could be milked at least three times daily in late spring.

Other names for May’s full moon include “frog moon,” from the Cree people of Canada’s North Plains — likely a nod to the spring peeper frog and its birdlike chirp, which is a harbinger of warm weather. The Dakota and Lakota people of the US Great Plains also called the celestial spectacle the “planting moon” to mark the agricultural practice of planting in the spring for a healthy harvest.

The flower moon played a minor role in a particularly dark period of US history. Martin Scorsese’s recent Oscar-nominated historical drama “Killers of the Flower Moon” explores a series of murders of Osage people in Oklahoma. The killings began in May 1921, the month of the flower moon.

Remaining moons of 2024

Of the 12 full moons this year, the September and October lunar events will be considered supermoons, according to EarthSky.

Definitions of a supermoon can vary, but the term generally denotes a full moon that is closer to Earth than normal and thus appears larger and brighter in the night sky. Some astronomers say the phenomenon occurs when the moon is within 90% of perigee — its closest approach to Earth in orbit.

Here are the remaining full moons of the year:

June 21: Strawberry moon

July 21: Buck moon

August 19: Sturgeon moon

September 17: Harvest moon

October 17: Hunter’s moon

November 15: Beaver moon

December 15: Cold moon