For thousands of years, the moon inspired humans from afar, but the bright beacon in Earth’s night sky — located more than 200,000 miles (321,868 kilometers) away — remained out of reach. That all changed on September 13, 1959, when the former Soviet Union’s uncrewed spacecraft, Luna 2, landed on the moon’s surface.

The Luna 2 probe created a crater when it touched down on the moon between the lunar regions of Mare Imbrium and Mare Serenitatis, according to NASA.

That pivotal, lunar dust-stirring moment signaled the beginning of humanity’s endeavors to explore the moon, and some scientists now suggest it was also the start of a new geological epoch — or period of time in history — called the “Lunar Anthropocene,” according to a comment paper published in the journal Nature Geoscience on December 8.

“The idea is much the same as the discussion of the Anthropocene on Earth — the exploration of how much humans have impacted our planet,” said the paper’s lead author Justin Holcomb, a postdoctoral researcher with the Kansas Geological Survey at the University of Kansas, in a statement.

“The consensus is on Earth the Anthropocene began at some point in the past, whether hundreds of thousands of years ago or in the 1950s,” Holcomb said. “Similarly, on the moon, we argue the Lunar Anthropocene already has commenced, but we want to prevent massive damage or a delay of its recognition until we can measure a significant lunar halo caused by human activities, which would be too late.”

Scientists have tried for years to declare a definitive Anthropocene on Earth, and recently presented new evidence of a site in Canada that some researchers believe marks the start of the transformative chapter in our planet’s history.

The idea of the Lunar Anthropocene arrives at a time when civil space agencies and commercial entities are showing a renewed interest in returning to the moon, or for some, landing on it for the first time.

And the paper’s authors argue that the moon’s environment, already shaped by humans during the beginning of the Lunar Anthropocene, will be altered in more drastic ways as exploration increases.

Humanity’s lunar footprint

Outdoor enthusiasts and visitors to national parks are likely familiar with the concept of “Leave No Trace” — respecting and maintaining natural environments, leaving things the way they were found and properly disposing of waste.

The moon, however, is littered with the traces of exploration.

Since Luna 2’s landing, more than a hundred spacecraft have crashed and made soft landings on the moon and “humans have caused surface disturbances in at least 58 additional locations on the lunar surface,” according to the paper. Touching down on the lunar surface is incredibly difficult, as evidenced by numerous crashes that have made their mark and created new craters.

The Cold War space race kicked off a series of lunar missions, and the majority since then have been uncrewed. NASA’s Apollo missions were the first to send humans around the moon during the 1960s before safely landing astronauts on the lunar surface for the first time in 1969 with Apollo 11. Ultimately, 12 NASA astronauts walked on the lunar surface between 1969 and 1972.

With the arrival of humans came a plethora of objects that have been left behind, including scientific equipment for experiments, spacecraft components, flags, photographs, and even golf balls, bags of human excrement and religious texts, according to the paper.

From Earth, the moon appears unchanged. After all, it doesn’t have a protective atmosphere or magnetosphere like our life-sustaining world does. Micrometeorites regularly hit the surface because the moon has no way of shielding itself from space rocks.

Declaring a Lunar Anthropocene could make it clear that the moon is changing in ways it wouldn’t naturally due to human exploration, the researchers said.

“Cultural processes are starting to outstrip the natural background of geological processes on the moon,” Holcomb said. “These processes involve moving sediments, which we refer to as ‘regolith,’ on the moon. Typically, these processes include meteoroid impacts and mass movement events, among others. However, when we consider the impact of rovers, landers and human movement, they significantly disturb the regolith.”

The moon also has features like a delicate exosphere composed of dust and gas and ice inside permanently shadowed areas that are vulnerable and could be disturbed by continued explorations, the authors wrote in their paper. “Future missions must consider mitigating deleterious effects on lunar environments.”

Lunar exploration frenzy

A new space race is heating up as multiple countries set their sights on landing both robotic and crewed missions to explore the moon’s south pole and other unexplored and difficult-to-reach lunar regions.

India’s Chandrayaan-3 mission made a historic successful landing on the moon in 2023 after Russia’s Luna 25 spacecraft and Japanese company Ispace’s ‎HAKUTO-R lander both crashed. This year, multiple missions are heading for the moon, including Japan’s “Moon Sniper” lander that is expected to attempt to touch down on January 19.

Astrobotic Technology’s Peregrine spacecraft launched this week amid objections by the Navajo Nation that the vehicle carried human remains that customers paid to send to the lunar surface, sparking fresh debate over who controls the moon. But a propulsion issue noticed hours after liftoff means that Peregrine won’t be able to attempt a moon landing, and currently, its fate is uncertain.

NASA’s Artemis program intends to return humans to the lunar surface in 2026. The agency’s ambitions include establishing a sustained human presence on the moon, with habitats that are supported by resources like water ice at the lunar south pole. China’s space ambitions also include landing on the moon.

“In the context of the new space race, the lunar landscape will be entirely different in 50 years,” Holcomb said. “Multiple countries will be present, leading to numerous challenges. Our goal is to dispel the lunar-static myth and emphasize the importance of our impact, not only in the past but ongoing and in the future. We aim to initiate discussions about our impact on the lunar surface before it’s too late.”

The moon’s archaeological record

Humanity’s traces on the moon have come to be viewed as artifacts that essentially need some form of protection. Researchers have long expressed a desire to maintain the Apollo landing sites and catalog the items left behind to preserve “space heritage.” But this type of preservation is difficult to pull off because no one country or entity “owns” the  moon.

“A recurring theme in our work is the significance of lunar material and footprints on the moon as valuable resources, akin to an archaeological record that we’re committed to preserving,” Holcomb said. “The concept of a Lunar Anthropocene aims to raise awareness and contemplation regarding our impact on the lunar surface, as well as our influence on the preservation of historical artifacts.”

The Apollo 11 lunar landing marked the first time humans set foot on another world. The footprints left in the lunar dust by astronauts are perhaps the most emblematic of humanity’s ongoing journey, which will likely include planets like Mars in the future, the researchers said.

“As archaeologists, we perceive footprints on the moon as an extension of humanity’s journey out of Africa, a pivotal milestone in our species’ existence,” Holcomb said. “These imprints are intertwined with the overarching narrative of evolution. It’s within this framework we seek to capture the interest of not only planetary scientists but also archaeologists and anthropologists who may not typically engage in discussions about planetary science.”

Denmark’s King Frederik X has taken the throne after the abdication of his mother Queen Margrethe II, looking emotional as he waved to the thousands who gathered in the capital Copenhagen to witness the start of a new era.

For many in Denmark, his mother Margrethe was the only monarch they had ever known. But her shock abdication, after more than five decades on the throne, paved the way for her son, the former Crown Prince Frederik, to succeed her.

The handover took place at a cabinet meeting at Christiansborg Palace in the capital Copenhagen, when Margrethe signed a declaration of her abdication, officially transferring the crown to Frederik.

Large crowds gathered in the streets of Copenhagen, despite frigid weather, the occasional burst of song riding across the crowds as they awaited the historical moment.

The Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen then publicly proclaimed the King’s accession from the balcony of the palace – a tradition in place since the constitution of 1849.

Frederik followed the proclamation with a short speech, before being joined by his Australian-born wife Queen Mary and their four children, including the Crown Prince Christian, the new successor to the throne.

“Today the throne is passed on. My hope is to become a unifying king of tomorrow,” Frederik said. His mother, he said, “will be remembered forever as an extraordinary regent.”

Prime Minister Frederiksen expressed “a deepfelt and devoted thanks” to Queen Margrethe on behalf of the nation.

“To be queen and king is a link in a more than thousand-year-long chain. When one steps aside, the next is standing at the ready. And the crown prince that now becomes our monarch is a king that we know, a king that we like, and a king that we trust,” she said.

Among the thousands lining the capital was 45-year-old Kasper Wiigh Larsen. “It brought tears in a joyful way to see him do so well up on the balcony, both with his speech and when Mary came out and held his hands and finishing with a kiss,” he told Reuters.

Britain’s King Charles III – who had his coronation last summer – has congratulated the new king and queen.

“I look forward to working with you on ensuring that the enduring bond between our countries, and our families, remains strong, and to working together with you on issues which matter so much for our countries and the wider world,” he said in his message.

Margrethe, 83, was Europe’s longest-reigning monarch and the world’s last reigning queen. She announced her historic tenure would come to an end after 52 years in a stunning live address on New Year’s Eve.

She said she had been reflecting on “whether now would be an appropriate time to pass on the responsibility to the next generation” following a recent surgery on her back and had come to the decision “that now is the right time.”

The queen appeared emotional herself and said “God save the King” after she put down her signature to the Council of State, handed over the throne, and then exited the room.

Although no longer the ruling monarch, Margrethe will continue to be titled as Her Majesty and can be installed as acting regent, according to the Danish Royal House. This means that she will be able to perform duties as head of state when both King Frederik or Crown Prince Christian are not able, such as if they were overseas. Other Danish royals who can also assume the role of acting regent if required include Mary, Frederik’s brother Prince Joachim and his aunt, Princess Benedikte.

While the Danish monarchy is one of the oldest in Europe, stretching back more than 1,000 years, there is no traditional crowning moment. As such, world leaders and high-profile dignitaries were not in attendance, with the Danish changeover being a significantly more low-key occasion in comparison to the global spectacle and pageantry of King Charles III’s coronation in May.

Still, the streets were crammed with well-wishers enjoying the spectacle.

Denmark is a constitutional monarchy, and its royals perform an important but symbolic ambassadorial role in addition to signing off any new legislation. Formal powers lie with the elected parliament and its government based at Christiansborg Palace in the heart of the capital, Copenhagen.

And it was here that King Frederik X visited for the last time as crown prince on Sunday, and departed as the ruling monarch of Denmark, Greenland and the Faroe Islands.

“It’s the first time in 900 years a Danish king or queen has abdicated. It will be a more festive occasion than the last time when a young Margrethe took over,” she explained. “The queen’s decision to abdicate was shocking but most Danes seem to understand that she wants to pass on the torch due to declining health.”

It’s incredibly rare for a monarch to abdicate in Denmark. The last Danish monarch to do so was King Eric III when in 1146 he relinquished the crown to join a monastery. But the practice is more common in other European royal houses.

Borup said Denmark was “entering a new modern era” and while Frederik has enjoyed broad support from Danes during his time as crown prince, as monarch he will have work to do.

“He might continue making the monarchy more accessible to the people. His main challenge will be maintaining a popular and relevant monarchy in the years to come.”

Celebrations almost 9,000 miles away

It’s not just those from the nordic country celebrating Margrethe handing the baton to her son. King Frederik X is ruling alongside his Australian-born and hugely popular wife, Queen Mary – which will undoubtedly delight her proud admirers back home.

Their royal romance started with a chance encounter at a Sydney bar during the 2000 Olympics Games. Sales executive Mary Elizabeth Donaldson, born in Hobart, Tasmania, was initially unaware she was chatting away with a real-life prince.

The watering hole popular with tourists has over the years continued to celebrate Mary’s milestone moments. It held a live screening of the couple’s grand wedding at Copenhagen cathedral in 2004 and, two years later, marked the birth of their first son, Prince Christian, who is now the new crown prince and heir to the throne.

It is the center of Sydney’s celebrations again with Danish flags flying over the bar, Danish-inspired hots dogs and a special cocktail in honor of the new Queen.

Meanwhile, the Australian federal government has marked the special occasion with its own unique gift on behalf of the nation. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese announced a donation of 10,000 Australian dollars (around $6,000) for the protection of one the most well-known but endangered marsupials in Mary’s home state.

“The story of Crown Prince Frederik and Crown Princess Mary of Denmark is one Australians have followed closely and hold dear to their hearts,” he said in a statement on Saturday. “Crown Princess Mary grew up in Tasmania, and so it is fitting Australia marks this occasion with a gift to support the conservation of the Tasmanian devil.”

Back in Denmark, the royal couple have earned supporters and worked to modernize the monarchy, raising their four children – 18-year-old Christian, 16-year-old Isabella and 13-year-old twins, Vincent and Josephine – with as normal as upbringing as possible and sending them to regular state schools.

The Danish royal family is more informal than their British counterparts. They have been praised for being down-to-earth and can often be seen out and about, shopping, dining or riding bicycles in public like other members of the public.

The climate crisis, sustainability, public health, the rights of women and girls are just some of the themes of Frederik and Mary’s duties that have helped endear them to the public.

Borup said that Mary might not have been born a royal, “but you’d think she was.”

“She carries herself with such grace and is an amazing representative for the nation of Denmark,” the Berlingske culture editor said. “She’s known to always be well prepared, and she’s taken on some pretty substantial tasks, such as shining a light on domestic violence.

“When Mary and Frederik met in Australia, the story used to be that she was lucky to run into a fairytale prince. I think time has shown he was even luckier.”

A volcano erupted in southwest Iceland, sending molten lava into a nearby town and setting houses ablaze, authorities say, in the second eruption the area has seen in weeks.

There was no immediate threat to the residents of Grindavik, a small fishing town, which is under evacuation orders.

A webcam set up by Iceland’s public broadcaster RUV showed a stream of lava flowing into Grindavík, with the burning buildings just meters away from other houses.

On Saturday, Iceland’s National Commissioner of Police ordered residents in Grindavík, first evacuated in November, to evacuate again by Monday night after volcanic fissures opened on roads in the area.

Sixty households – 10% of the town’s usual population – have been evacuated so far, Gudmundsdottir said, adding that many people had not yet returned after last month’s eruption. There was no danger to human life, Gudmundsdottir said.

Following the eruption, police raised the alert level. An Icelandic Coast Guard helicopter has also been deployed to monitor the situation.

Hours before the eruption, Iceland’s meteorological office had reported an earthquake.

Grindavík, about 70 kilometers (43 miles) southwest of Iceland’s capital city Reykjavík on the Reykjanes peninsula, was previously evacuated following weeks of seismic activity which culminated in a dramatic volcanic eruption that expelled bursts of lava and sent huge plumes of smoke into the sky.

The crack after December’s eruption measured around four kilometers, while Sunday’s eruption crack was around a quarter of the length.

The town is also home to Iceland’s famed Blue Lagoon, which draws tourists to its steaming geothermal water and is one of the country’s most visited attractions.

“It can be assumed that the order will be in effect for the upcoming three weeks,” the country’s Civil Protection Agency said in a statement, adding that the only exceptions to the order would be for authorities to conduct official business or for residents “for short periods while salvaging valuables.”

The latest evacuation order comes after the Icelandic Meteorological Office reported on Friday that hazards associated with volcanic fissures were deemed higher risk than in its previous assessment.

“Based on the Civil Protection Department’s hazard assessment issued on January 12, it is not considered justifiable to continue to dwell in Grindavík, in light of public safety considerations,” the government agency said.

The amount of magma had reached a level similar to when a previous eruption occurred in December, the agency said. But in the case of the latest eruption, magma could “migrate further south” – as compared to the previous eruption – and possibly reach Grindavík town.

The eruption in December is thought to have been the largest so far, according to authorities

A state of emergency was declared in November.

Iceland’s volcanoes

Iceland is home to 32 active volcanoes and sits on a tectonic plate boundary that continually splits apart, pushing North America and Eurasia away from each other along the line of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

As such, the country is accustomed to volcanic eruptions, though they often occur in the wilderness, away from populated areas.

The Bárðarbunga volcanic system in the center of the country erupted in 2014, producing lava that covered 84 square kilometers (32 square miles) of highland but didn’t damage any communities.

Experts do not expect the latest series of eruptions to cause the same level of chaos as seen in 2010 when the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted, since it is unlikely to involve glacial ice that led to a huge ash cloud.

About 100,000 flights were canceled, affecting 2 million people, as a result of the ash spewed out by the 2010 eruption, which threatened to stall aircraft engines and cause electrical failure.

North Korea has fired at least one ballistic missile into the waters off the east coast of the Korean peninsula, according to South Korea’s Joint Chiefs of Staff.

Japan’s Coast Guard, citing information from the Ministry of Defense, announced that a projectile, believed to be a ballistic missile, was launched by North Korea and had landed in the sea.

The JCS said the missile was launched from the Pyongyang area around 2:55 p.m. local time on Sunday and was believed to be intermediate in range.

The South Korean, US and Japanese militaries are working together to analyze further details of the missile, the JCS said, adding that the South Korean military is maintaining “full readiness posture,” while closely sharing information on North Korea’s missile with the US and Japan.

This is a breaking news story. More to follow

Former US President Donald Trump briefly returned as a central character in European politics earlier this week.

According to the European Union’s internal market chief, Thierry Breton, Trump told European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in 2020 that “if Europe is under attack, we will never come to help you and to support you.”

Breton’s remarks during an event at the European Parliament came less than a week before the Iowa caucuses and the start of voting in the US Republican presidential primary, which Trump is widely expected to win. They also coincided with Breton’s proposal for a €100bn fund to bolster ammunition production across the bloc – a fact not lost on his critics.

Whether Trump actually made these comments or not is largely immaterial to European officials. The former president’s views on America’s historic role in European security are well known. During his presidency, Trump regularly talked about defunding NATO while also complimenting authoritarian leaders, including Russia’s Vladimir Putin, who are considered adversaries of the very same military alliance.

The reminder that Trump holds this view and the fact that he might soon return to the White House do, however, cause real concern and anguish in Brussels.

Partly, because his beliefs are rooted in the uncomfortable truth that European nations have underfunded their militaries for decades on the assumption that war was unlikely and that if the worst were to happen, the US would rush to their aid.

However naive that might sound, Trump trashed that assumption. And his hostility toward the Ukraine war effort has an impact even now, playing into the Republican Party’s reluctance to pass more US funding for Ukraine.

During the Trump presidency, this new reality caused Europe to do some soul-searching. Officials concluded that Europe needed to prepare itself for a future where the United States couldn’t be relied on in the same way it always had been. That thinking was underscored when President Joe Biden kept many of Trump’s America-first policies, particularly on trade and China.

This is the second reason that reminders of Trump’s anti-Europe sentiments sting: Despite its best intentions, Europe’s Trump-proofing, as some inelegantly call it, has not gone very far.

On trade, Europe has taken measures to reduce its dependencies on single nations and diversify its supply chains so it cannot be held to ransom should a trading partner suddenly change its policies, as Trump did on steel, placing tariffs of 25% on imports from the EU.

“No amount of de-risking can make up for a sudden policy change that makes it harder for Europeans to sell into America,” says Ian Bond, deputy director at the Centre for European Reform think-tank. “In a second term, it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that he could decide some other material is a risk to American security.”

On defense and security, the EU has acknowledged its past failures and agreed to dramatically increase its defense spending across the bloc and the continent more broadly. It has taken the war in Ukraine very seriously, sending billions of euros in funding along with weapons and aid. It is also working hard to bring Ukraine into the bloc as soon as possible.

Historically, poking Russia and sending this level of European money and resources to a third-party would have been impossible as the member states would almost certainly disagree over whether it was in their own national interest. It has been remarkable that Europe the EU has been able to go as far and as fast as it has in supporting Ukraine since the start of the invasion.

Despite this, the uncomfortable truth is that rearming 27 countries and changing the way they trade takes a very long time, so the deep-rooted ties with – and ultimate dependency on – would not be easy to unpick, even under normal circumstances.

But the past few years have been anything but normal for Europe. Covid-19 took up an enormous amount of its bandwidth, while the war in Ukraine, a country that borders the EU and is trying to join the bloc, is top of the agenda at every meeting of EU leaders.

Aside from the distractions, Trump-proofing is hard because Trump himself presents quite a unique threat to Europe.

Unlike China or Russia, the US is not a hostile state. It is an old ally and is not actively attacking Europe in the way Beijing or Moscow might through cyber attacks or military action.

In both those cases, Europe can use economic sanctions or an increased military presence to protect its interests. Clearly, even under Trump, that would not be appropriate or necessary against the US. However, diplomatic action against Trump is also tricky, as his thin-skinned nature means any criticism risks a massive overreaction.

The conclusion some diplomats have reached is that the best way to deal with Trump, should he win this year’s election, is to stay calm and keep plugging away at distancing Europe from the US.

Another European diplomat said Brussels cannot get distracted by Trump as it did the first time around, nor can it pay too much attention if Trump raises the prospect of ending US support for Ukraine. “If he starts talking about that, there’s not much we can really do. We just need to be mature and carry on because however this war ends, it’s Europe that will bear the consequences, not America.”

It’s no secret that European officials would rather Trump doesn’t return to the White House. Christine Lagarde, head of the European Central Bank, said only this week that Trump’s return would be a “threat” for Europe. The toxic legacy of his first presidency might be that the trans-Atlantic relationship is never the same again.

The trouble for Europe is that it will take years, maybe decades, to end its reliance on the US. And in that time, it will be very hard to ignore what the most powerful person on the planet is saying on any given day, especially when it’s about you.

A volcano has erupted in southwest Iceland just weeks after another eruption in the area, putting residents of a nearby town under fresh risk.

On Saturday, Iceland’s National Commissioner of Police ordered residents in the fishing town of Grindavík, first evacuated in November, to evacuate again by Monday night after volcanic fissures opened on roads in the area.

Following the eruption, police have raised the alert level, the agency said, adding that an Icelandic Coast Guard helicopter has also been deployed to monitor the situation.

Hours before the eruption, Iceland’s meteorological office had reported an earthquake.

Grindavík, about 70 kilometers (43 miles) southwest of Iceland’s capital city Reykjavík on the Reykjanes peninsula, was previously evacuated following weeks of seismic activity which culminated in a dramatic volcanic eruption that expelled bursts of lava and sent huge plumes of smoke into the sky.

The town is also home to Iceland’s famed Blue Lagoon, which draws tourists to its steaming geothermal water and is one of the country’s most visited attractions.

“It can be assumed that the order will be in effect for the upcoming three weeks,” the country’s Civil Protection Agency said in a statement Saturday, adding that the only exceptions to the order would be for authorities to conduct official business or for residents “for short periods while salvaging valuables.”

The latest evacuation order comes after the Icelandic Meteorological Office reported on Friday that hazards associated with volcanic fissures were deemed higher risk than in its previous assessment.

“Based on the Civil Protection Department’s hazard assessment issued on January 12, it is not considered justifiable to continue to dwell in Grindavík, in light of public safety considerations,” the government agency said.

The amount of magma had reached a level similar to when a previous eruption occurred in December, the agency said. But in the case of the latest eruption, magma could “migrate further south” – as compared to the previous eruption – and possibly reach Grindavík town.

The eruption in December is thought to have been the largest so far, according to authorities

A state of emergency was declared in November.

Iceland’s volcanoes

Iceland is home to 32 active volcanoes and sits on a tectonic plate boundary that continually splits apart, pushing North America and Eurasia away from each other along the line of the Mid-Atlantic Ridge.

As such, the country is accustomed to volcanic eruptions, though they often occur in the wilderness, away from populated areas.

The Bárðarbunga volcanic system in the center of the country erupted in 2014, producing lava that covered 84 square kilometers (32 square miles) of highland but didn’t damage any communities.

Experts do not expect the latest series of eruptions to cause the same level of chaos as seen in 2010 when the Eyjafjallajökull volcano erupted, since it is unlikely to involve glacial ice that led to a huge ash cloud.

About 100,000 flights were canceled, affecting 2 million people, as a result of the ash spewed out by the 2010 eruption, which threatened to stall aircraft engines and cause electrical failure.

People starving and dead bodies left in the streets: This is the dire picture of conditions in northern Gaza painted by a top UN official in charge of relief operations in the enclave.

“Colleagues who have managed to make it to the north in recent days describe scenes of utter horror: Corpses left lying in the road. People with evident signs of starvation stopping trucks in search of anything they can get to survive,” Martin Griffiths, UN Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief Coordinator, told members of the UN Security Council on Friday.

“Even if people were able to return home, many no longer have homes to go to,” he said, adding shelters are already housing far more people than they can cope with.

The risk of famine grows by the day as food and water is running out, he said, while the health system is “in a state of collapse.”

Women are unable to give birth safely and children cannot get vaccinated, with cases of infectious diseases on the rise and people seeking shelter in hospital yards, he said.

Aid has been trickling into Gaza slowly from two border crossings in the south.

On Thursday, the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs said Israel had denied critical supplies from entering northern Gaza. But Israel has accused the UN’s Palestinian refugee agency of not doing enough and “stalling” the progress.

In a stinging criticism, Griffiths said his team’s efforts to send humanitarian convoys to the north “have been met with delays, denials, and the imposition of impossible conditions,” while “the lack of respect for the humanitarian notification system puts every movement of aid workers in danger.”

Efforts to provide humanitarian assistance to other parts of the enclave have also been badly impacted. “Our access to Khan Younis and the middle area is largely absent,” he said.

The UN official also laid into Israel’s policy of telling people to leave their homes ahead of increased military operations.

“Orders for evacuation are unrelenting. As ground operations move southwards, aerial bombardments have intensified in areas where civilians were told to relocate for their safety,” Griffiths said, with people being forced to “an ever-smaller sliver of land, only to find yet more violence and deprivation, inadequate shelter and a near absence of the most basic services.”

“There is no safe place in Gaza. Dignified human life is a near impossibility,” he said.

Up to 1.9 million people, representing 85% of the population in Gaza, have been displaced, some multiple times, since the conflict began, according to the United Nations Relief and Works Agency.

But Griffiths also reminded UN Security Council members of Hamas’ attack on Israel.

“While Gaza is the epicenter of this crisis, let us not forget the 1,200 people killed, thousands injured, and hundreds taken in the brutal attack by Hamas and other armed groups on Israel on October 7, and the accounts of abhorrent sexual violence,” he said.

Rocket fire continues to pound populated areas of Israel, “causing more civilian casualties and trauma,” he said.

“What we have seen since October 7 is a stain on our collective conscience. Unless we act, it will become an indelible mark on our humanity,” Griffiths said.

A large protest was held in Tbilisi on Saturday to demand harsh punishment for a woman accused of defacing a religious icon depicting Josef Stalin which was recently-installed in the Georgian capital, as tensions over the incident remained high.

The woman is alleged to have splashed paint on the icon, which was on display in the city’s main Holy Trinity Cathedral, on Tuesday in an act of protest that exposed deep divisions in Georgia over the former Soviet dictator’s legacy in his homeland.

Thousands of Orthodox believers and supporters of the Alt-Info pro-Russian ultra-conservative movement gathered on Saturday in front of the country’s parliament before matching through the city in the direction of the cathedral.

The crowd – observed by the police – was addressed by a speaker complaining about the attack on the icon. A Reuters reporter estimated the crowd to be up to 3,000-strong.

A Georgian nationalist party, called the Alliance of Patriots, which has also expressed pro-Russian views, said it had gifted the icon to the cathedral.

A side panel of the icon includes a depiction of the Georgian-born Stalin – an avowed atheist who violently repressed religion across the Soviet Union – being blessed by St Matrona of Moscow, a Russian Orthodox saint, during World War Two.

The police opened an investigation into “petty hooliganism” and questioned the woman who had damaged the icon.

But some Orthodox Church activists and believers want the woman, who has been named in Georgia media, to be subject to a criminal investigation and be potentially jailed for what they say was an act that insulted the icon and their beliefs.

They also want the law which deals with such incidents to be made tougher, according to local reports.

Flowers were placed by the icon on Saturday as believers lined up to kiss the part of it depicting Stalin.

Some Georgian media outlets have reported that Orthodox activists had previously tried to storm the woman’s apartment in Tbilisi, but were prevented by the police.

Ron Davis Álvarez stood on a train platform in Stockholm, stunned by what he saw.

The Venezuelan orchestra conductor was visiting Sweden as part of a university exchange program. He’d expected his time passing through a train station on the way to visit a student group that day in 2015 to be uneventful.

Instead, he watched throngs of people getting off trains, their faces drawn and exhausted. Volunteers raced past him to hand out bananas and water to the new arrivals.

“I was completely in shock, seeing all of these young boys arriving,” Álvarez recalls.

He asked someone what was going on.

The answer: “They are from Syria and Afghanistan. Many of them are unaccompanied. They traveled here alone.”

“What will happen to them?” Álvarez asked.

No one knew.

It was the kind of overwhelming, desperate scene that’s unfolded in cities all over the world for centuries, and even more visibly in recent years as war, poverty and persecution drive a growing number of people to flee their homes.

But one thing was different about that moment on the Stockholm train platform.

Álvarez was there watching, and he had an idea.

That idea would change his life, and the lives of hundreds of others he hadn’t met yet. It would take Álvarez and his message to stages across Sweden and across the world. It would make him a better teacher. It would inspire him with hope and fill him with fear. And it would give lost teenagers something they thought they’d never find.

But like most big ideas, it started much smaller.

He launched the orchestra with 13 members. Many had no musical background

It wasn’t long before Álvarez was back in Sweden. He’d been tapped as the artistic director of El Sistema Sweden, based in the coastal city of Gothenburg. It’s one of many programs worldwide inspired by Venezuela’s famed El Sistema, which provides instruments and teaches music to underprivileged youth.

Álvarez first joined El Sistema as a child growing up in a Caracas slum. He learned to play violin and later to become a teacher and conductor. He says the experience shaped his life and gave him opportunities he never expected.

He’d continue that legacy at El Sistema Sweden.

But as he began his new role, the memory of what he’d seen months earlier on the train platform remained seared in his mind.

El Sistema Sweden’s work was focused on younger children enrolled in Swedish schools. The youth he’d seen pouring into the train station were already in their later teenage years. It’s an age when many might assume it’s too late to learn an instrument.

Álvarez knew it wasn’t. And he knew he had to try to help them.

Officials, he says, were harder to convince. Basic needs like food and shelter, he says, were seen as more important than teaching music to the growing number of asylum seekers arriving in Sweden.

So Álvarez says he did what he could, starting small.

With a handful of instruments on loan, he visited schools to drum up interest. Eventually, he recruited a group of 13 youth from Afghanistan, Syria, Eritrea and Albania. He dubbed them the Dream Orchestra.

“I remember coming into the room and there were a lot of girls and boys, and I was nervous,” Álvarez says in a short film about the orchestra featured on its website. “And it was interesting, because I just came with the instruments, and I said, ‘Ok guys, we’re going to have a concert in two weeks.’ And I remember that all of them were surprised. I think they thought I was crazy.”

Many of the Dream Orchestra’s members had never played an instrument before they joined. They came from different countries. They didn’t speak the same languages.

But they shared one major thing in common: They were immigrants, asylum-seekers and refugees searching for a new home.

And Álvarez was ready to help them find one.

Teaching older students required a different approach

Mostafa Kazemi lights up when he recalls the day he met Álvarez in 2016.

“Which instrument do you play?” the conductor asked him.

“I can’t play,” Kazemi replied.

Álvarez’s response was confident and unflinching: “Yes, you can. Come and pick which one you want.”

Kazemi, originally from Afghanistan, was 16 years old at the time. He’d been in Sweden for a matter of months. No one had talked to him like this before.

So a few weeks after the Dream Orchestra began, Kazemi became one of its first members. He picked the cello, an instrument one of his friends was playing.

We are not case numbers. We are not names on a list. We are people who bring different knowledge, experience and opportunity — and a lot of dreams.

Ron Davis Álvarez, Dream Orchestra founder and artistic director

The small ensemble rehearsed on Fridays and Saturdays. Those were Álvarez’s days off, and also a time when he knew it was important to keep young people occupied and off the streets.

At first, teaching the group wasn’t easy, Álvarez recalls. He was used to instructing younger Spanish-speaking students who came from similar backgrounds. This would require a different approach.

Álvarez spoke English, and some of the other members of the Dream Orchestra did, too. But still, misunderstandings were frequent, even comical at times.

Body language was key to overcoming those obstacles. So was finding a way to connect more deeply with each person – to learn what music they liked and where they came from and who they were.

Another key part of Álvarez’s approach with these older students: giving them the confidence to make mistakes.

“I tried to build confidence – first the confidence of the sound. That’s number one. Try to build big sound. Because the big sound is easy for me to start to (adjust), like a DJ. But it’s too difficult if it’s too little sound,” he says. “I prefer that you make a mistake. … It doesn’t matter if it’s the right note or not.”

The confidence comes first. Then the right notes follow as motor skills are sharpened – something that Álvarez says simply takes more time with older students.

Álvarez’s students say his passion inspired them to push themselves.

“Ron was full of energy all the time,” Kazemi says. “And that made us want to do more and more and more. We were practicing at home. I even brought some more students. I told my friends. … And everyone told their friends, and everyone came to orchestra.”

Before long, the group that started with 13 students was growing.

Now, eight years later, the Dream Orchestra has more than 400 members from nearly 20 countries who speak around 20 languages between them. There are multiple ensembles within the organization for students of different ages living in different locations in and around Gothenburg, and playing at different levels. Some members are children of immigrants. Swedish nationals whose families have lived in the country for generations have joined, too. And some parents of the young people in the orchestra are also now in its ranks.

Other teachers have joined Álvarez on staff. And he’s no longer directing El Sistema Sweden. Álvarez works for the Gothenburg Symphony as the artistic director of a summer music program. And he spends as much time as he can with the Dream Orchestra every week.

Refugees and asylum seekers remain the core of the group, Álvarez says, “but it’s an orchestra for everyone.”

This student was skeptical about joining. Then he saw a performance

Mushtaq Khorsand says he had no intention of joining the Dream Orchestra when he first heard about it from a friend at school. He knew enough about classical music to know it wasn’t for him.

“I have seen that before, people playing in a classical music orchestra. They are usually sad. They look like they don’t want to play,” Khorsand recalls thinking. “I’m a hip-hop guy, you know. We jump.”

But watching just one performance of the Dream Orchestra changed his mind. He saw his friends from school sitting beside strangers and smiling as they played. And he asked Álvarez if he could join.

Asking that question, he says, changed his life.

So many times since he’d left Afghanistan, Khorsand felt like people had demeaned and underestimated him. He could tell that Álvarez believed in him before he’d even played a note.

Khorsand started out playing the French horn after Álvarez suggested it. He switched to the flute when that instrument became available, preferring its softer tone.

He says the community he found in the orchestra helped him through dark times in his life – including an initial negative decision in his immigration case that he feared might force him to leave Sweden. Whenever he and other members of the orchestra struggled, Khorsand says, Álvarez was always willing to listen and did what he could to help.

“That was really important for me, because when I came here, I had a really rough time. … I wasn’t allowed to work. I didn’t have money. So if I wasn’t part of Dream Orchestra and (hadn’t) met Ron, I don’t where I would be,” he says.

Now he’s 25 and a job coach helping other refugees find work in Sweden. He has a young son who loves listening to him play the flute. He’s released a solo Dari-language hip-hop album.

And he’s embraced other kinds of music, too. In videos of rehearsals and performances on the Dream Orchestra’s YouTube channel, Khorsand can be seen playing, singing and dancing with other members of the group – and he’s smiling.

Someday, he says he hopes to follow in Álvarez’s footsteps and become a music teacher.

Even as his life has gotten busier, he makes a point of playing his flute with the group every weekend.

“It’s the only thing I do for myself,” he says. “I cannot imagine being without them.”

Training professional musicians isn’t the goal

The Dream Orchestra’s story isn’t a tale of a ragtag group rising to the top ranks of the classical music world. And Álvarez says it’s not supposed to be.

Some members have gone on to study music after their time in the orchestra. And Álvarez says that excites him. But his dreams for the orchestra’s members are much bigger than that. Often, he feels the proudest when he hears about them helping others.

“Our goal is that they can find their way in this society, with empathy, values and respect,” he says. “I don’t want everyone to become a musician. I want them to become the best whatever they can be.”

At a time when migrants are a growing portion of the world’s population and the number of people forced to flee their homes has reached a record high, Álvarez knows the orchestra and its members have a vitally important message.

“We are not case numbers,” he says. “We are not names on a list. We are people who bring different knowledge, experience and opportunity – and a lot of dreams.”

Immigration to Sweden peaked in 2016, but since then it’s remained at a high level compared to past eras, according to government statistics. And Swedish officials have announced a series of stricter immigration policies in recent years, arguing that previous levels were unsustainable and contributed to crime.

But Álvarez sees the arrival of immigrants as an opportunity, not a threat. Conducting the Dream Orchestra over the years had opened his eyes to so many things. And on a December morning, as about 20 musicians from the group take the stage at one of the most important performances in the young orchestra’s history, he’s hoping others will see what he does, too.

Nobel laureates and locals are watching inside the Gothenburg auditorium. A national audience is tuning in on Swedish television and global viewers are watching a YouTube livestream. In a day-long Nobel conference on the future of migration, the Dream Orchestra is a featured act.

The lights dim as they get ready to play their first piece: a Swedish folk song whose meaning is all too familiar for these musicians.

Its title: “Vem kan segla förutan vind?” Who can sail without the wind? Its final line, as summarized by Álvarez to the crowd: “You can sail without many tools, but you cannot sail without crying when you say goodbye to your friends.”

Álvarez knows how hard it is to leave home behind and find your footing in a new place. He’s living thousands of miles away from many members of his own family, too.

The maestro stands center stage and raises his baton in the air.

Sitting in the Nobel spotlight, one of the group’s newest members speaks out

One of the orchestra’s newer members plays the folk song’s melody.

Tymofii Slakva, who goes by Tim, is a 16-year-old pianist who was forced to flee Ukraine with his family after Russian’s invasion.

The song starts with a few solemn notes, with accompanying strings playing softly in the background. Before long, the other instruments are silent, and it’s only Slakva’s hands summersaulting across the keyboard, transforming the mournful melody into a bold and triumphant solo.

During weekend rehearsals, the Swedish tradition known as fika – a beloved coffee and pastry break that’s a time to convene with friends and family – is as much a part of the orchestra as any instrument. And Slakva says he looks forward to it every week.

“We take foods, gather together and speak about life,” Slakva says. “I really like spending time with them.”

Slakva, whose father is a pianist, too, also loves performing. He’s happy the orchestra brought him to this stage. But not only because of the music he’s playing. In a panel discussion afterward, Slakva has a chance to share his perspective on what life is like for immigrants in Sweden.

He tells the crowd about something that’s been weighing on him. While Ukrainians are grateful they’ve been given temporary permission to stay in the country, he says, they still don’t have access to the government-issued personal identity numbers that give other residents of Sweden – including some members of the Dream Orchestra from other countries – more financial and employment opportunities. He hopes that will change.

“There are really many limits,” he tells the crowd. Without a personal number in Sweden, he says, “there is no future.”

Álvarez, too, has a chance to share his perspective. As he sees it, politicians and world leaders could learn a lot from this music ensemble.

“I see the orchestra like society,” he says. “When you are in an orchestra, you need to learn how to hear each other, how to listen to each other, compassion, how to empathize.”

Deportations and other obstacles have shaped the group in unexpected ways

That’s not to say there haven’t been challenges over the years.

Some students at first struggled with taking direction from female conductors and teachers, Álvarez says, and tensions have boiled over at times between members of the orchestra whose home countries have a history of conflict with each other.

Some conductors might direct their orchestras simply to play on and ignore these difficulties. Álvarez says he addresses them directly. He wants the orchestra not only to be a safe space, but a place where its members can grow and learn to live together.

“We are all people that need to respect each other. It’s difficult because you cannot erase this history, but you can rewrite the future,” he says.

It’s the only thing I do for myself. I cannot imagine being without them.

Mushtaq Khorsand, a flutist in the Dream Orchestra, on what the group has meant to him

But for Álvarez, the past is always present, too.

As he conducts, he thinks not only of the musicians in front of him, but of the ones who used to be there and aren’t anymore. Beginning the orchestra was a beautiful experience, Álvarez says, but he never expected how hard it would be when its members started to learn the results of their immigration cases.

Since the orchestra’s founding, he estimates more than 10 of its members have been deported – each one, he says, leaving a hole that can never be filled.

Fear that he’d lose members of the orchestra haunted him. And Álvarez says it changed his perspective.

He was already known as a passionate and energetic teacher. But he started to push himself even harder.

“I need to give so much,” he says, “because I cannot control whether they can stay or not. But I can control whether to give them some tools that they can take with them if they have to leave.”

He lost his asylum case and left Sweden. But the orchestra is still part of him

After losing multiple appeals in his asylum case, Mostafa Kazemi left Sweden several years ago before authorities could deport him back to Afghanistan.

But Kazemi says he still carries the orchestra with him, and he always will. The experience, he says, changed the way he saw himself and the world around him.

“I understood the meaning of life because I was so loved and cared for. When it was my birthday, they were making cakes for me. … Even now, every time when I contact Ron, he tells me, ‘we always have an open door for you,’” Kazemi says.

On a recent trip to visit Sweden, Kazemi visited Álvarez and sat in on a Dream Orchestra rehearsal.

“It was like I had left yesterday. I came to the same door. … Everything was the same, except there were more children,” he says. “I was just feeling home.”

Worry about finances keeps him up at night. But he hasn’t lost hope

It pains Álvarez to think of Kazemi in France without a cello. He hopes someday to be able to send him one — and to find a way to help pay for a new teacher for Kazemi, too.

But right now, money is tight.

After January, Álvarez says he’s not sure where most of the orchestra’s funding will come from. He says an organization in the United Kingdom has pledged to pay 20% of their expenses, but Álvarez is still searching for more support.

In the past, family foundations have provided crucial funding that kept the orchestra afloat and helped it grow. But Álvarez says raising money has gotten harder over the years. Arts funding that was cut during the pandemic hasn’t bounced back, he says. And a harsher political climate towards migrants and refugees in Sweden and elsewhere hasn’t made matters any easier.

The Dream Orchestra received a standing ovation at the recent Nobel performance, and energizing words of encouragement from laureates and other audience members. But so far, Álvarez says, the orchestra hasn’t seen the boost in donations it needs.

Worrying about the orchestra’s finances keeps him up at night. But he hasn’t lost hope.

His experience conducting the Dream Orchestra has made his belief in people even stronger.

He knows how far they’ve come together. And he knows there are still so many ways the group can grow.

The Dream Orchestra’s website includes a document detailing its approach. He hopes others will create similar programs. He’s traveled to refugee camps in Lebanon to share what he’s learned. And a group of teachers from Ukraine recently visited and plan to follow the Dream Orchestra’s model to help children displaced by war there.

On social media, Álvarez often shares posts praising the group and highlighting their recent performances.

On his phone, Álvarez still keeps a recording of one of the Dream Orchestra’s first rehearsals.

He’s playing piano and singing the melody. Everyone else is playing out of tune, bows scratching across their instruments’ strings. Many of their faces appear pained as they struggle to find their fingering.

“It sounds horrible,” Álvarez laughs, “but that wasn’t what I was thinking about at the time.”

At that moment, and in so many others, Álvarez was focused on what they were building together.

Like a designer walking into an empty house and envisioning how the rooms would look, all he saw was potential.

It’s what he saw that day on the train station platform, too, and what he hopes will inspire others to reach out in their own ways when they see immigrants and refugees in their communities.

All of us, he says, have so much to give each other.

Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party pulled off a historic third consecutive presidential victory on Saturday as voters shrugged off warnings by China that their re-election would increase the risk of conflict.

Lai Ching-te, Taiwan’s current vice president, declared victory on Saturday evening while his two opposition rivals both conceded defeat.

“This is a night that belongs to Taiwan. We managed to keep Taiwan on the map of the world,” Lai told thousands of jubilant supporters at a rally after his win.

“The election has shown the world the commitment of the Taiwanese people to democracy, which I hope China can understand,” he added.

China responded soon after the vote by saying “Taiwan is part of China.”

Lai’s running mate Hsiao Bi-khim, who recently served as Taiwan’s top envoy to the United States, was elected Vice President.

The counting of votes has concluded, with Lai – the candidate of Taiwan’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) – receiving just over 40% of the total votes, according to Taiwan’s Central Election Commission (CEC).

Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang (KMT) party candidate Hou Yu-ih garnered 33.49% of the votes, with Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) candidate Ko Wen-je received 26.45%. More than 14 million people took part, meaning that voter turnout came in at just over 71%.

The boisterous election campaign, an illustration of Taiwan’s vibrant democratic credentials, was fought over a mixture of livelihood issues as well as the thorny question of how to deal with its giant one-party state neighbor, China, which under leader Xi Jinping has grown more powerful and bellicose.

The result shows voters backing the DPP’s view that Taiwan is a de facto sovereign nation that should bolster defenses against China’s threats and deepen relations with fellow democratic countries, even if that means economic punishment or military intimidation by Beijing.

It is also a further snub to eight years of increasingly strongarm tactics towards Taiwan under Xi who has vowed that the island’s eventual “reunification” with the mainland is “a historical inevitability”.

Following Taiwan’s election result, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said no matter “whatever changes take place in Taiwan, the basic fact that there is only one China in the world and Taiwan is part of China will not change.”

The spokesperson continued: “The one-China principle is the solid anchor for peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait. We believe that the international community will continue to adhere to the one-China principle and understand and support the Chinese people’s just cause of opposing ‘Taiwan independence’ separatist activities and striving to achieve national reunification.”

A spokesperson for China’s Taiwan Affairs Office earlier insisted the election result “does not represent the mainstream view on the island.”

Other world powers have congratulated Lai, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken saying the vote demonstrated “the strength of [Taiwan’s] robust democratic system and electoral process.”

Like outgoing president Tsai Ing-wen, who cannot stand again because of term limits, Lai is openly loathed by China’s Communist Party leaders and his victory is unlikely to lead to any improvement in ties between Beijing and Taipei.

China cut off most communications with Taipei after Tsai took office and ramped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on the self-ruled island, turning the Taiwan Strait into one of the world’s major geopolitical flash points.

China’s ruling Communist Party views Taiwan as part of its territory, despite having never controlled it. While successive Chinese Communist leaders have vowed to eventually achieve “reunification,” Xi has repeatedly said the Taiwan issue “should not be passed down generation after generation,” linking the mission to his mid-century goal of “national rejuvenation.”

The DPP emphasizes that Taiwan is not subordinate to the Chinese Communist Party, and that its future Taiwan must only be decided by its 23.5 million people.

In the run up to Saturday’s vote, Beijing warned Taiwan’s voters to “make the right choice” and “recognize the extreme danger of Lai Ching-te’s triggering of cross-strait confrontation and conflict.”

His running mate Hsiao has been sanctioned twice by China for being a “stubborn secessionist.”

Speaking to the media ahead of his victory speech on Saturday night, Lai called his win a “victory for the community of democracies.”

“We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we still stand on the side of democracy,” he said.

“I will act in accordance with our democratic and free constitutional order in a manner that is balanced and maintains the cross-strait status quo,” he added. “At the same time, we are also determined to safeguard Taiwan from continuing threats and intimidation from China”.

“In the future, we hope that China will recognize the new situation, and understand that only peace benefits both sides of the strait,” he added.

Blow for Beijing

Lai’s victory comes as the US is trying to stabilize fraught relations with China and prevent competition from veering into conflict. During Tsai’s administration, Taiwan bolstered ties with the United States, its biggest international backer, which increased support and arms sales to the island.

US officials have said that Washington will uphold its longstanding policy toward Taiwan no matter who takes on the top job. The Biden administration will dispatch an unofficial delegation – including former senior officials – to Taipei following the election in keeping with past practice, according to senior officials.

The delegation visit “will be a signal, a very symbolic way of supporting Taiwan,” said T.Y. Wang, a professor at Illinois State University.

Saturday’s result is another major blow for Taiwan’s Kuomintang, which back warmer relations with Beijing and have not held the presidency since 2016.

Beijing made little secret of its desire to see the KMT return to power. During campaigning the KMT accused Lai and the DPP of needlessly stoking tensions with China.

Lev Nachman, a political science professor at Taiwan’s National Chengchi University, said that while Lai has to make some economic adjustments given deep public grievances over low wages and unaffordable housing, on issues like foreign policy and cross-strait relations he is expected to largely follow Tsai’s approach.

“So much of (Lai’s) campaign has been trying to reassure not just a domestic audience, but international audience that he is Tsai Ing-wen 2.0,” he said.

That will not be welcome in Beijing.

Days before the election, China’s Taiwan Affairs Office said by following Tsai’s path, Lai is pursuing a path of provocation and confrontation and will bring Taiwan “closer and closer to war and recession.”

Analysts say China could escalate economic and military pressure on Taiwan to show its displeasure in the coming days and weeks, or save a more forceful response for May, when Lai takes office.

“There’s multiple times that China could cause a fuss over a DPP victory, either now or later this year,” Nachman said.

And Beijing has a wide range of coercive measures in its toolbox too.

In the lead-up to the vote, China ended preferential tariffs for some Taiwanese imports under a free trade agreement. It could broaden the scope of goods targeted, or even suspend the agreement altogether.

China can also further ramp up its military pressure on Taiwan, sending more fighter jets and warships close to the island’s skies and waters, a tactic it has deployed with increased frequency in recent years.

But Taiwan’s security officials said ahead of the vote that they didn’t expect large-scale military actions from China right after the election, citing unsuitable winter weather conditions, troubles in the Chinese economy, and efforts by Beijing and Washington to stabilize ties following a bilateral summit in November.

And while an escalation of military tension could increase the risks of accidents and miscalculations, it doesn’t necessarily portend an imminent conflict in the Taiwan Strait, analysts noted.

“Just because the DPP is in power doesn’t mean China’s going to war,” said Nachman.

“The last eight years have obviously been uncomfortable with the DPP in power, but it hasn’t led to war, they’ve been able to find an uncomfortable middle ground. And the hope is that even with a Lai presidency that we can continue to have this sort of uncomfortable silence without having to go to war.”