When South African startup Renergen bought the production and exploration rights for some grassy fields near Virginia, a town in the country’s Free State province, the founders were expecting to find small natural gas reserves that could power nearby mining opportunities.

They paid $1 for the rights in 2013, according to CEO Stefano Marani, and started to test the composition of the gas flowing from two rusted drill pipes that had been installed years before for mineral exploration. What they found was abnormally high concentrations of helium.

Beyond inflating party balloons, helium has a number of commercial applications. When condensed into a liquid form, it’s an essential cooling component used in the manufacture of microchips and in the operation of life-saving MRI scanning technology. Yet global helium prices are volatile and supplies erratic, with the gas produced in fewer than 10 countries in the world.

Renergen had unwittingly struck gold. Today, the company says it has proven helium reserves of more than 7 billion cubic feet at the Virginia Gas Project that could be worth more than $4 billion, and potentially up to $12 billion when including further possible reserves.

“We had humble, modest aspirations of setting up a small scale [gas] power station that could deliver a couple of megawatts to some nearby mining opportunities,” recalls Nick Mitchell, Renergen’s chief operating officer. “We had no idea of the extent and scale and the sheer world-class nature of this helium deposit.”

The company successfully produced liquid helium from the plant for the first time in January 2023. After delays throughout the year due to a leak in the vacuum seal of the helium cold box, it hopes to begin commercial operations within the next month, extracting helium alongside natural gas, then processing and distributing it to customers, such as Linde, a global engineering firm. 

Smaller footprint

What makes Renergen’s natural gas reserves so special is the unusually high concentration of helium. Marani says that it averages 3%, and in some places reaches as high as 12%. In contrast, the US, the world’s biggest supplier of helium, has an average concentration of 0.35%, and Qatar, another major player, averages 0.04%, according to the US Bureau of Land Management.

This could make Renergen’s helium more eco-friendly, according to Chris Ballentine, chair of geochemistry at Oxford University in the UK. Generally, helium is produced as a byproduct of liquefied natural gas (LNG) – a mix of gases that is primarily methane – he explains, and it’s only at a certain concentration (usually around 0.3%) that it becomes economically worthwhile to extract helium by itself.

This means that most of the time, helium supply is dominated by hydrocarbon producers that are extracting and selling helium on the side, and production is therefore linked to a high carbon footprint, he continues. But a higher helium concentration means less associated methane is produced, thereby reducing its carbon footprint.

“What makes the Renergen prospects so interesting is that (while) there are hydrocarbons associated with their helium production, it’s a much smaller footprint. They’ve effectively found a primary helium gas system,” he says.

Ultimately, Ballentine hopes the industry will move away from producing helium from LNG, and use sources such as gas fields where helium occurs alongside nitrogen, as explored in a recent study that he co-authored.

Another benefit of the high concentration is cheaper production. “We’re a much lower-cost producer of helium than most other players out there,” says Marani. “We drill very shallow wells, probably in the region of about 1,000 to 1,500 feet – low cost, small footprint – and then the gas comes out naturally of its own volition,” he says.

Africa’s supply point

With the global helium supply frequently disrupted, a new player in a different geographical region is very welcome, says Ballentine. “We are currently in a supply crisis, because we only have a few limited supply points … places like Renergen will certainly alleviate that,” he says.

Currently, none of the world’s helium is produced in Africa – helium-rich gas fields have been located in Tanzania, but are not yet in commercial production.

Marani notes that Renergen’s gas project was designated a “strategic integrated project” by the South African government, helping to speed up regulatory approval processes.

According to Mitchell, the company’s “phase one project,” a small pilot funded by the US government, will produce around 350 kilograms of helium per day – enough to satisfy all of South Africa’s requirements and still have excess. Its “phase two project,” which is anticipated to come online in 2027 and has received financing from the US government and South Africa’s Standard Bank, is expected to ramp up production to 4.2 tons per day – producing somewhere between 6% and 8% of the world’s global helium supply. With the global helium market predicted to be worth more than $6 billion in 2027, according to the firm Research and Markets, that would generate significant returns.

In December, the company announced it had sold 5.5% of the equity in Tetra4, Renergen’s subsidiary that owns and operates the Virginia Gas Project, for 550 million rand ($29 million) to Mahlako Energy Fund and Third Way Investment, two investment management firms based in Johannesburg. It plans to raise more equity via an initial public offering (IPO) on the Nasdaq stock market in the US. The company is already listed in South Africa and Australia.

“Building up confidence is going to take a very long time, I’ve got no illusions about that,” says Marani. “I believe that the helium turn-on is the first step in that process.”

Eleni Giokos, Michael Cross and Tom Bouchier Hayes contributed to this report.

Ukraine and Russia have exchanged over 200 prisoners of war in what Kyiv called the largest prisoner swap between the two countries since the war began in February 2022.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky announced the news in a social media post Wednesday, heralding the return of over 200 Ukrainian soldiers and civilians from Russian captivity.

Ukraine’s Coordination Headquarters for the Treatment of Prisoners of War (KSHPPV) described the swap as the “largest exchange of prisoners of war since the full-scale invasion took place.”

Among the group are seven soldiers who defended Snake Island, a rocky island in the Black Sea which became an evocative symbol of Ukrainian resistance in February 2022 when Ukrainian defenders managed to fend off a takeover from Russian soldiers.

Soldiers who defended the besieged southern city of Mariupol and its Azovstal steel plant were also exchanged alongside POWs detained in the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, according to the Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine, Andriy Yermak.

Posting on Telegram, Yermak called it a “difficult exchange after a long pause.” The last major exchange of prisoners was carried out in August 2023 with Yermak pledging Wednesday to keep working to secure the release of all detained Ukrainians.

In return, Russia said 248 Russian servicemen were returned from Ukrainian controlled territory. In a Telegram post, the Russian defense ministry credited the exchange to “the humanitarian intervention” of the United Arab Emirates.

The ministry pledged to provide all the “necessary medical and psychological assistance” to the returned servicemen, adding that they will receive treatment at ministry-operated medical facilitates.

Doron Katz Asher said her daughters can “remember every little detail” about October 7.

How they woke to the sound of sirens and hid in their shelter. How the gunshots got nearer. How, when the doors burst open, their grandfather rushed out of the shelter so Hamas gunmen wouldn’t see the rest of them hiding inside. How he was taken. How they left the door open to the shelter in the hope other attackers would think it had already been raided and move on. How that didn’t work.

Asher, her mother and daughters, 5-year-old Raz and 2-year-old Aviv, were thrown into the back of a tractor with other hostages from the kibbutz, before gunmen opened fire. Asher was shot in her back; Aviv was shot in the leg; her mother was shot dead.

Asher, 34, and her daughters were taken into Gaza, where they were kept first in a home, then in a hospital, before being released in November during a temporary ceasefire between Israel and Hamas.

Asher and her daughters were taken first to an apartment that belonged to a family in Gaza. “They stitched my wounds without anesthetic, on the couch while my girls were next to me,” Asher said.

After being exposed to the October 7 terror attack that she called a “war movie,” Asher said she tried to reassure her daughters the danger was over. “I told them there are no terrorists anymore and we’re with good people now who are guarding us until we can return home,” she said.

The three of them were watched over every hour of the day by children and grandchildren of the owner of the house. Asher never learned their names, but was able to communicate with the father, whom she said spoke Hebrew as he used to work in Israel.

While Asher and her daughters were not harmed physically, she said she was subjected to “psychological warfare.”

“They didn’t give us a lot of information, they mainly tried to say that Hamas wants to release us but in Israel no one cares about us,” Asher said. “That we won’t return to live in the kibbutz because it’s not our house – it’s not the place where we belong.”

But she said she did not believe them – and that the sound of fighting outside the building in Gaza was “how we knew that something was going on in order to get us back home, to put pressure on Hamas to release us.”

After 16 days, Asher and her daughters were taken from the apartment to what she described as a “so-called” hospital in the southern Gaza city of Khan Younis. Why “so-called”?

Because a hospital is “a place that is supposed to take care of people, but instead it was taken over by Hamas and they used it to hide hostages,” Asher said.

The Israeli military has repeatedly said Hamas hides terrorist infrastructure in and around civilian institutions in Gaza, such as hospitals – a claim denied by the militant group. The US has said that Hamas used the Al-Shifa Hospital, the largest in Gaza, as a command center and a place to hold hostages. Asher did not say where she was held.

Asher was joined by other hostages in the hospital complex – the first captives she had met since being taken into Gaza.

She said she received some medication when her daughters became sick while being kept inside, “but it wasn’t enough.”

When Aviv contracted a fever, Asher put her in the sink with cold water to bring her temperature down. “She was screaming. They would tell us to keep quiet, but the girl had a fever and I had to take care of her somehow.” They remained in the hospital for nearly five weeks.

Asked what her darkest moment was, Asher said “surprisingly, it was the day that we were released.”

When they were “smuggled” out of the hospital into a Hamas vehicle, she did not know where she was being taken. “No one told us that we were getting released,” she said, “so the drive through the streets of Gaza was very, very frightening.”

She said the streets were lined with thousands of people – including children and the elderly – trying to hit the car and knock on its windows. Asher said she feared she would be lynched.

“This is the first time that Raz said to me, after a month and a half of me protecting her, ‘Mommy, I’m scared,’” Asher said.

A total of 105 people were released by Hamas during a temporary truce with Israel, which began on November 24 and ended December 1. Videos capturing some of the moments the hostages were transferred to Red Cross staff often showed Hamas members acting kindly towards the hostages, holding the hands of elderly women, for instance, and helping them out of cars.

“It’s one big show,” Asher said. “Before I was released, my girls and I were barefoot for 50 days. We were cold because they were wearing short sleeves in November.” But before they were handed over to Red Cross staff, they were given shoes and Hamas members “put me in a nice dress,” Asher said.

Once they were back in Israel, Asher and her daughters were taken to a hospital in Tel Aviv before being discharged and returning home. The first thing her daughters did was “to go outside to feel the wind on their skin,” Asher said.

“We didn’t see daylight that entire time … for them, just to be able to run outside, here in our yard, that’s the first thing they did.”

Her family is now trying to regain some semblance of normality. But Asher said the trauma easily resurfaces.

“There was one day that they saw a tractor here and they asked if the evil men are here. I had to tell them no, the tractor doesn’t belong to the evil men,” Asher said. “The tractor isn’t the thing that hurt you, it’s something we work with in the field, in construction.”

Asher said she has been unable to mourn the death of her mother. “While we were hostages all of my energy was devoted to the girls, because if I were to get lost in grief there would be no one to take care of them,” she said. “I was acting on autopilot … I’m still on autopilot.”

And the relief she felt once released has been tainted by the knowledge that others remain in Gaza. As of December 29, 106 hostages remain in Gaza, as well as the bodies of 23 who have been killed, according to the Israeli Prime Minister’s Office.

Among them is Gadi Moses, Asher’s mother’s partner. “We’re waiting for him, he’s going to be 80, he’s without his meds,” Asher said.

The Quds Brigades, the armed wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad – another Islamist group operating in Gaza – released a video in December showing Gadi Moses and another hostage, Gadi Katzir, 47, speaking in front of the camera, asking the Israeli government to arrange their release. “He got very skinny – we saw him in the video,” Asher said.

“I can’t comprehend what has happened to my family, and I can’t comprehend the inhumanity of them. People who murder people in their beds. Who does that? That’s not human.”

Bianna Golodryga conducted the interview in Tel Aviv and Christian Edwards wrote from London.

Dozens of people were killed Wednesday in the Iranian city of Kerman after twin blasts near the burial site of slain military commander Qasem Soleimani, in what officials called a terror attack.

The blasts, at least one of which was caused by a bomb, state TV said, came on the fourth anniversary of Soleimani’s death in a US airstrike, and threaten to accelerate tensions in the region that have spiked since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

At least 84 people were killed and 284 others injured, according to state-run news agency IRNA, citing Jafar Miadfar, head’s of Iran’s national emergency agency. The toll was revised down due to the miscounting of body parts.

No group has claimed responsibility for the blasts, the deadliest to hit Iran since the 1979 revolution.

Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi blamed Israel for the explosions, saying it will pay a “heavy price.”

“I warn the Zionist regime, do not doubt that you will pay a heavy price for this crime and the crimes you have committed,” Raisi said in a televised speech from Tehran. Raisi, who is the head of the Iranian government, warned that Israel’s punishment will be “regrettable and severe.”

Analysts and a US official speculated that the blast had the hallmarks of a terrorist attack.

“I think it’s just based on the MO it does look like a terrorist attack, the type of thing we’ve seen ISIS do in the past. And as far as we’re aware, that’s kind of I think our going assumption at the moment,” the official said.

Iran has suffered major Islamist terror attacks before. In 2022, at least 15 people were killed and 40 others injured in the southern city of Shiraz. ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack swiftly afterwards, saying it targeted groups of “Sunni infidels.”

The first explosion was 2,300 feet (700 meters) from Soleimani’s grave, and the second was 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) away as pilgrims visited the site, IRNA reported.

Soleimani was killed by a US airstrike ordered by former President Donald Trump at Baghdad International Airport on January 3, 2020.

IRINN, another state television channel, reported that the first explosion near the grave of Soleimani was caused by a bomb placed in a suitcase inside a Peugeot 405 car, and appeared to be detonated remotely.

Iran’s Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the first explosion happened at 3:00 p.m. local time (6 a.m. ET) during an interview with Iran’s state news channel IRIB. Vahidi said the second, more deadly blast took place 20 minutes later, when other pilgrims came to help the injured.

Videos posted on Iranian state media showed large crowds running in the area after the explosion.

Footage also showed bloodied bodies being transported from the scene, and ambulances leaving the site through large crowds.

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Iran will have a “harsh response.” Addressing those behind the explosions, he wrote: “They should know that the bright soldiers of the path of Soleimani will not tolerate their wickedness and crimes.”

Iran declared Thursday a day of mourning following the blasts and Raisi canceled his upcoming trip to Turkey.

Formerly one of Iran’s most powerful men, Soleimani was head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, an elite unit that handles Iran’s overseas operations and was deemed to be a foreign terrorist organization by the US.

The Pentagon says Soleimani and his troops were “responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more.”

Known as Iran’s “shadow commander,” Soleimani – who had led the Quds Force since 1998 – was the mastermind of Iranian military operations in Iraq and Syria.

Gen. Ismail Qaani, Soleimani’s longtime lieutenant and his successor as the leader of the Quds Force, said the perpetrators were “desperate,” warning that “the Islamic Republic will not change the method of eradicating the Zionist regime.”

Blast comes at tense moment in region

The blast occurred amid heightened tensions in the region as Israel fights a three-month war against Hamas in Gaza prompted by the militant group’s October 7 attack on Israel.

That war has left more than 23,000 people dead in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health in the enclave, and has led to skirmishes beyond Israel and Gaza, often involving Iran-backed militias.

Last week, Iran and several of its armed proxies accused Israel of assassinating a senior Iranian commander in Syria, vowing retaliation. Israel didn’t comment on the matter.

In an address marking the anniversary of Soleimani’s death, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the killing of the Hamas official in Beirut “won’t go unpunished.”

Israel accuses Tehran of funding and arming Hamas. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last month that his country is in a “multi-arena war,” being attacked from seven arenas, including Iran. “We have already responded and acted in six of these decrees” he said.

On Wednesday, Russian President Putin condemned “terrorism in all its forms” in a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi after the blasts. Putin, who is the subject of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, has been accused by Kyiv and international bodies of numerous acts of terror during his war in Ukraine.

Both the European Union and the United Nations chief Antonio Guterres also condemned Wednesday’s blasts and called for the perpetrators to be held responsible.

The US has also stepped up its military involvement in the Middle East recently. Last month, the military carried out airstrikes on Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah and “affiliated groups” in Iraq after an attack injured three US troops.

And last week, US helicopters sank three boats belonging to Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea after coming under fire, killing those on board. The event marked the first time since tensions broke out earlier last year that the US killed members of the rebel group.

The White House said it wasn’t seeking a wider conflict. The Houthis have carried out several attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea in retaliation for Israel’s assault on Hamas, disrupting trade in one of the world’s most important waterways.

This story has been updated with additional developments.

January kicks off with the Quadrantids, one of the quickest yet strongest meteor showers of the year.

The shower is expected to peak overnight between January 3 and 4, according to the American Meteor Society. Sky-gazers in the Northern Hemisphere can best view the shower between the late-night hours of Wednesday and dawn on Thursday.

Meteors are leftover pieces from broken asteroids and comet particles that spread out in dusty trails orbiting the sun. Each year, Earth passes through the debris trails, and pieces of dust and rock create colorful, fiery displays called meteor showers as they disintegrate in Earth’s atmosphere.

The Quadrantid shower is notoriously hard to observe due to its brief peak of six hours. The peak has a limited duration compared with most meteor showers, which peak over two days, because the shower only has a thin stream of particles and Earth passes through the densest concentration of those particles quickly at a perpendicular angle, according to NASA.

Predictions for the shower’s peak range from 4 a.m. to 10 a.m. ET (9 a.m. to 3 p.m. Coordinated Universal Time), but meteors will be visible for hours beforehand. The American Meteor Society recommends keeping an eye out for meteors from 1 a.m. to 5 a.m. local time for those across North America.

The earlier time favors those along North America’s East Coast and the later time is more favorable for observers in Hawaii and Alaska. The Quadrantids usually aren’t visible in the Southern Hemisphere because the shower’s radiant point doesn’t rise that high in its sky before dawn.

Check Time and Date’s site to see what your chances are like to view the event.

What you’ll see

The peak can include more than 100 visible meteors per hour. You may even glimpse some fireballs during the meteor shower, which are bright blasts of light and color associated with larger particles that linger longer than typical meteor streaks, according to NASA.

Keep an eye on the north-to-northeastern sky. Stand or sit with the moon at your back from 2 a.m. local time onward and view the skies for at least an hour, the American Meteor Society advises.

Visibility will depend on any wintry inclement weather in the Northern Hemisphere. And the moon will be about 51% full, which may impact the visibility of the shower, but the society recommends trying to block the moon with a tree or building.

If you live in an urban area, you may want to drive to a place that isn’t full of bright city lights. If you’re able to find an area unaffected by light pollution, meteors could be visible every couple of minutes from late evening until dawn.

Find an open area with a wide view of the sky. Make sure you have a chair or blanket so you can look straight up. And give your eyes about 20 to 30 minutes to adjust to the darkness — without looking at your phone — so the meteors will be easier to spot.

Unusual origins

If the meteor shower’s name sounds odd, it’s probably because it doesn’t sound as if it’s related to a constellation. That’s because the Quadrantids’ namesake constellation no longer exists — at least, not as a recognized constellation.

The constellation Quadrans Muralis, first observed and noted in 1795 between Boötes and Draco, is no longer included in the International Astronomical Union’s list of modern constellations because it’s considered obsolete and isn’t used as a landmark for celestial navigation anymore, according to EarthSky.

Like the Geminid meteor shower, the Quadrantids come from a mysterious asteroid or “rock comet,” rather than an icy comet, which is unusual. This particular asteroid is 2003 EH1, which takes 5.52 years to complete one orbit around the sun and measures 2 miles (3.2 kilometers) across.

But astronomers believe a second object, Comet 96P/Machholz, may contribute to the shower, according to EarthSky. The comet orbits the sun every 5.3 years.

Scientists think a larger comet was gravitationally bound into a short orbit by the sun around 2000 BC. The comet left behind meteors for years before breaking apart sometime between the years 100 and 950. As a result, the comet left behind many celestial offspring known collectively as the Machholz Complex, which includes the Quadrantid meteor shower’s parent bodies Comet 96P/Machholz and asteroid 2003 EH1 as well as two different comet groups and eight meteor showers, according to EarthSky.

Meteor showers of 2024

After the Quadrantids, there is a bit of a lull in meteor shower activity, and the next one won’t occur until April.

Lyrids: April 21-22

Eta Aquariids: May 4-5

Southern delta Aquariids: July 29-30

Alpha Capricornids: July 30-31

Perseids: August 11-12

Draconids: October 7-8

Orionids: October 20-21

Southern Taurids: November 4-5

Northern Taurids: November 11-12

Leonids: November 17-18

Geminids: December 13-14

Ursids: December 21-22

Full moons and supermoons

Twelve full moons will occur during 2024, and September and October’s lunar events will also be considered supermoons, according to EarthSky.

Definitions of a supermoon can vary, but the term generally denotes a full moon that is closer to Earth than normal and thus appears larger and brighter in the night sky. Some astronomers say the phenomenon occurs when the moon is within 90% of perigee — its closest approach to Earth in orbit.

Each month’s full moon is associated with a specific name, according to the Farmers’ Almanac. But the full moons have a variety of names and meanings, according to different indigenous tribes.

Here are the full moons of 2024:

January 25: Wolf moon

February 24: Snow moon

March 25: Worm moon

April 23: Pink moon

May 23: Flower moon

June 21: Strawberry moon

July 21: Buck moon

August 19: Sturgeon moon

September 17: Harvest moon

October 17: Hunter’s moon

November 15: Beaver moon

December 15: Cold moon

Solar and lunar eclipses

Multiple eclipses will occur in 2024, including two types of lunar eclipses and two types of solar eclipses, according to the Old Farmer’s Almanac.

The most highly anticipated of these events is the total solar eclipse occurring on April 8, which will be visible to those in Mexico, the United States and Canada. A total solar eclipse occurs when the moon passes between Earth and the sun, completely blocking the sun’s face.

Those within the path of totality, or locations where the moon’s shadow will completely cover the sun, will see a total solar eclipse. People outside the path of totality will still be able to see a partial solar eclipse, in which the moon only obscures part of the sun’s face.

A total solar eclipse won’t be visible across the contiguous US again until August 2044.

An annular solar eclipse will occur in the sky on October 2 over parts of South America. This type of eclipse is similar to a total solar eclipse, except the moon is at the farthest point in its orbit from Earth, so it can’t completely block the sun. Instead, annular solar eclipses create a “ring of fire” in the sky as the sun’s fiery light surrounds the moon’s shadow.

Meanwhile, a penumbral lunar eclipse will be visible to many across Europe, North and East Asia, Australia, Africa, North America, and South America between March 24-25.

A lunar eclipse, which causes the moon to look dark or dimmed, occurs when the sun, Earth and moon align so that the moon passes into Earth’s shadow. A penumbral lunar eclipse is more subtle and happens when the moon moves through the outer shadow, or penumbra, of the Earth.

A partial lunar eclipse, when the Earth moves between the sun and the full moon without being perfectly aligned, will appear over Europe and much of Asia, Africa, North America and South America between September 17-18.

Check Time and Date’s website to see when each of these eclipses will appear.

A Japanese coast guard aircraft which collided with a passenger plane at Tokyo’s Haneda International Airport was instructed only to “taxi to holding point” and had not been cleared for takeoff, an official transcript of air traffic control communications released Wednesday suggests.

The fatal accident saw Japan Airlines flight 516 crash into the coast guard aircraft after touching down on the runway on Tuesday, causing it to erupt into a terrifying fireball.

All 379 people on the Japan Airlines (JAL) plane were safely evacuated. Five of the six crew members on the smaller coast guard aircraft died, according to Japanese transport minister Tetsuo Saito.

Saito on Wednesday released the transcript of more than four minutes of communications between air traffic controllers and the two planes immediately before the accident, which indicates the Japan Airlines flight had been given permission to land but does not show clear takeoff approval for the coast guard aircraft.

In a further development, publicly available records appeared to suggest that out-of-service warning lights – designed to stop pilots from erroneously taxiing onto the runway – could have been another factor in the crash.

Air traffic control gave the JAL passenger plane permission to land on runway 34R at 5:43:26 p.m. local time (3:43:26 a.m. ET), according to the transcript.

However, the transcript does not show clear takeoff approval for the coast guard aircraft, instead telling it to “taxi to holding point” at 5:45:11 p.m. (3:45:11 a.m. ET). The crew of the coast guard plane confirmed the instruction seconds later, according to the transcript.

About two minutes later, the JAL flight collided with the coast guard plane on the runway, according to the timestamp on airport surveillance video.

Transport Secretary Saito told reporters Wednesday that the incident is “still being investigated” and the next step will be to listen to the audio recording of the conversation between the coast guard pilot and flight control tower.

He added that the transport ministry is taking every precaution to prevent such an accident from occurring again.

In a briefing following Saito’s press conference, officials from the Japan Transportation Safety Board (JTSB) said they had retrieved the flight and voice recorders of the coast guard aircraft. However, they added that they were still looking for those of the JAL plane.

Another factor that could potentially be probed as part of the investigation into Tuesday’s collision is that the runway lights — known as runway stop bar lights and designed to stop pilots from erroneously taxiing onto the runway — may have been out of service, according to publicly available records.

A bulletin to pilots said stop bar lighting is “unserviceable” from taxiways C1 to C14, which includes the taxiway where Haneda tower controllers told the coast guard flight to hold and await takeoff clearance. The notice — or NOTAM — was first publicly posted on December 25, 2023, and remains active.

A JTBS official told reporters that the air traffic controller cleared the JAL plane to land on runway 34R and instructed the coast guard aircraft “to hold point.”

The release of the transcript comes after Japan Airlines said in a statement late Tuesday that its crew had been cleared to land by air traffic control prior to the collision.

Audio from LiveATC.net appears to detail the crew reading back a clearance order for runway 34, saying “cleared to land 34 right.”

Japan Airlines has pledged its full cooperation in the investigation to determine responsibility for the deadly crash.

Passengers who were onboard the Japan Airlines plane, an Airbus A350, as well as witnesses to the collision have described terror giving way to relief as it became clear everyone onboard survived.

Incredibly, Japan Airlines said only one person on board its plane received bruises, but 13 “requested medical consultation due to physical discomfort.”

Runway incursions, as incidents of this type are classed, are “rare but can be catastrophic,” according to Graham Braithwaite, professor of safety and accident investigation at the UK’s Cranfield University.

At least 103 people were killed Wednesday and 188 injured in the Iranian city of Kerman after twin blasts near the burial site of slain military commander Qasem Soleimani, in what officials called a terror attack.

The blasts, at least one of which was caused by a bomb, state TV said, came on the fourth anniversary of Soleimani’s death in a US air strike, and threatens to accelerate tensions in the region that have spiked since the start of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza.

The first explosion was 2,300 feet (700 meters) from Soleimani’s grave, and the second was 0.6 miles (1 kilometer) away as pilgrims visited the site, IRNA added.

Soleimani was killed by a US airstrike ordered by former President Donald Trump at Baghdad International Airport four years ago Wednesday.

IRINN, another state television channel, reported that the first explosion near the grave of Soleimani was caused by a bomb placed in a suitcase inside a Peugeot 405 car, and appeared to be detonated remotely.

Iran’s Interior Minister Ahmad Vahidi said the first explosion happened at 3:00 p.m. local time (6 a.m. ET) during an interview with Iran’s state news channel IRIB. Vahidi said the second, more deadly blast took place 20 minutes later, when other pilgrims came to help the injured.

Videos posted on Iranian state media showed large crowds running in the area after the explosion.

Footage also showed bloodied bodies being transported from the scene, and ambulances leaving the site through large crowds.

No group has claimed responsibility for the blasts, yet Iran’s President Ebrahim Raisi blamed Israel for the explosions, saying it will pay a “heavy price.”

“I warn the Zionist regime, do not doubt that you will pay a heavy price for this crime and the crimes you have committed,” Raisi said in a televised speech from Tehran. Raisi, who is the head of the Iranian government, warned that Israel’s punishment will be “regrettable and severe.”

Though analysts and a US official speculated that the blast had the hallmarks of a terrorist attack.

“I think it’s just based on the MO it does look like a terrorist attack, the type of thing we’ve seen ISIS do in the past. And as far as we’re aware, that’s kind of I think our going assumption at the moment,” the official said.

US State Department spokesperson Matt Miller said at a press briefing that the US does not “have any independent information” about the explosions, and that the State Department has “no reason to believe that Israel was involved.”

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei warned on X, formerly known as Twitter, that Iran will have a “harsh response.” Addressing those behind the explosions, he wrote: “They should know that the bright soldiers of the path of Soleimani will not tolerate their wickedness and crimes.”

Iran declared Thursday a day of mourning following the blasts and Raisi canceled his upcoming trip to Turkey.

Formerly one of Iran’s most powerful men, Soleimani was head of the Revolutionary Guards’ Quds Force, an elite unit that handles Iran’s overseas operations and was deemed to be a foreign terrorist organization by the US.

The Pentagon says Soleimani and his troops were “responsible for the deaths of hundreds of American and coalition service members and the wounding of thousands more.”

Known as Iran’s “shadow commander,” Soleimani – who had led the Quds Force since 1998 – was the mastermind of Iranian military operations in Iraq and Syria.

General Ismail Qaani, Soleimani’s longtime lieutenant and his successor as the leader of the Quds Force, said the perpetrators were “desperate,” warning that “the Islamic Republic will not change the method of eradicating the Zionist regime.”

Blast comes at tense moment in region

The blast occurred amid heightened tensions in the region as Israel fights a three-month war against Hamas in Gaza prompted by the militant group’s October 7 attack on Israel.

That war has left more than 23,000 people dead in Gaza, according to the Hamas-run Ministry of Health in the enclave, and has led to skirmishes beyond Israel and Gaza, often involving Iran-backed militias.

Last week, Iran and several of its armed proxies accused Israel of assassinating a senior Iranian commander in Syria, vowing retaliation. Israel didn’t comment on the matter.

In an address marking the anniversary of Soleimani’s death, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah said the killing of the Hamas official in Beirut “won’t go unpunished.”

Israel accuses Tehran of funding and arming Hamas. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said last month that his country is in a “multi-arena war,” being attacked from seven arenas, including Iran. “We have already responded and acted in six of these decrees” he said.

On Wednesday, Russian President Putin condemned “terrorism in all its forms” in a letter to Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and President Ebrahim Raisi after the blasts. Putin, who is the subject of an arrest warrant from the International Criminal Court, has been accused by Kyiv and international bodies of numerous acts of terror during his war in Ukraine.

Both the European Union and the United Nations chief Antonio Guterres also condemned Wednesday’s blasts and called for the perpetrators to be held responsible.

The United States has also stepped up its military involvement in the Middle East recently. Last month, the military carried out airstrikes on Iranian-backed Kataib Hezbollah and “affiliated groups” in Iraq after an attack injured three US troops.

And last week, US helicopters sank three boats belonging to Iran-backed Houthi rebels in the Red Sea after coming under fire, killing those on board. The event marked the first time since tensions broke out earlier last year that the US killed members of the rebel group.

The White House said it wasn’t seeking a wider conflict. The Houthis have carried out several attacks on merchant vessels in the Red Sea in retaliation for Israel’s assault on Hamas, disrupting trade in one of the world’s most important waterways.

As we enter 2024 what lies ahead on the global stage may seem more uncertain than it has in years.

To help you make sense of it, here are some key themes to watch.

1. Israel-Hamas war threatens to spill over

The new year begins with Israel pushing its offensive further into the Gaza Strip in response to Hamas’ October 7 attacks.

International pressure is mounting on Israel to limit the duration and intensity of its war amid global outcry over Gazans being trapped in mortal danger, without critical supplies or access to healthcare, as disease spreads through crowded humanitarian camps. Despite this, Israel has doubled down on its efforts and vowed its war on Hamas will rage for many months.

The risk of a wider Middle East conflict is escalating.

There are increasing cross-border exchanges between the Iran-backed, Islamist paramilitary group Hezbollah and the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) on the Lebanon-Israel border.

Proxy attacks by Iran-backed factions in Iraq – like the recent strike on the US embassy in Baghdad – are becoming bolder and more common. And further attacks by Yemen’s Iran-backed Houthi rebels on global shipping routes through the Red Sea and Suez Canal could make energy prices soar.

There’s also a risk of other extremist groups in the region being fueled by opportunism and/or grievances. It goes without saying that any formal normalization of ties between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a deal that appeared close before October 7, is now off the table.

The United States’ early unequivocal support of Israeli attacks on Gaza has damaged the image it projects as a guarantor of human rights and international law – a reputational hit from which Washington is unlikely to recover in the short term, despite a decisive shift in tone.

Going into 2024, the US and its allies must strike a balance between retaliation for and deterrence of proxy attacks, while keeping their responses under a threshold that would trigger a wider conflict.

2. Stalemate as Russia-Ukraine conflict enters third year

In February, Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine will enter its third year.

Neither Russia nor Ukraine shows any signs of achieving victory or a willingness to compromise on their incompatible objectives. Ukraine is fighting for its survival, territorial integrity and sovereignty, while Russia is intent on what it calls the “denazification” and demilitarization of Ukraine, and the prevention of its aspiration to join NATO and other Western bodies. The Russian framing of its unprovoked invasion as “denazification” has been dismissed by historians and political observers. 

Putin starts the year more confidently than he did the year before.

Ukraine’s long-anticipated 2023 counteroffensive did not recapture the momentum Kyiv had gained by the end of 2022. Russia’s war stockpiles are being replenished by both Iran and North Korea. Plus, the world’s largest-by-area country always has its numerical advantage to rely on in terms of troops, unlike Ukraine, which will suffer increasingly from a manpower shortage next year.

Europe is limited in the ammunition and military hardware it can supply to Ukraine, with its own sad stocks depleted. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s worst fears of cracks in Western unity have also materialized: Political division in the US and Europe is now obstructing the delivery of military and economic aid. Zelensky’s December trip to Washington, DC, resulted in $200 million – instead of the $61 billion he wanted – for new munitions because congressional Republicans wouldn’t budge on the border policy changes they demanded in return.

Days later, Hungary blocked a European Union aid package of 50 billion euros ($55 billion) to Ukraine. This trend will likely continue to stymie Ukraine’s military efforts next year as both the US and EU will prioritize domestic issues ahead of their elections.

Ukraine might then focus on a defensive approach, training new recruits, and defense production. Crimea, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014, will continue to be the strategic prize which Ukraine seeks to strike and challenge Russia’s Black Sea dominance.

Although Ukraine is now formally on its EU membership path , the rhetorical and institutional embrace from allies will likely continue to stand in contrast to their actual military and financial support at times.

Naturally, the future of this conflict hinges in large part on who is at the helm of Ukraine’s biggest source of financial and military aid – the United States. Moscow favors a return of the Republican frontrunner Donald Trump this fall.

3. Elections, certain and uncertain

Elections are always significant, never more so than when so many key players are on the ballots at a moment of global instability. In 2024 2 billion people will go to the polls in a bumper year for voting.

The United States’ elections on November 5 could potentially see Trump return to the White House. Trump has a commanding lead over his Republican rivals for their party’s nomination, but the Colorado Supreme Court judgment that he cannot run in the state due to the 2021 insurrection case, followed by a similar decision in Maine, may foreshadow the obstacles he will face.

There is no precedent for a candidate running under indictment. The mobilizing impact Trump’s claims of a legal “witch hunt” has had on his base is unlikely to translate to the wider electorate. However, President Joe Biden is not energizing Democrats – opinion polls suggest the majority of voters think the octogenarian is too old to be reelected and his approval ratings are low. As ever, the places to watch are the swing states.

India will hold the world’s largest democratic elections throughout April and May.

Incumbent Prime Minister Narendra Modi alongside his Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), is expected to secure a third term with a popular but religiously divisive brand of politics. Despite issues around inflation and purchasing power, Modi enjoys broad support among India’s Hindu majority based on patriotism and a confident foreign policy. Critics counter that India’s once secular and democratic founding ethos is taking a back seat and that minorities feel unsafe.

Russia goes to the polls on March 17. With prominent opposition leader Alexey Navalny incarcerated in a remote Siberian penal colony and comprehensive suppression of independent media, there won’t be any surprises here. However, the level of turnout will be revealing. If Russia’s elections offer limited indication of the government’s popularity, a low turnout could add pressure on the Kremlin and its stalling invasion of Ukraine. Fellow autocracies Belarus and Iran also hold elections.

There will be an early election flashpoint when, in less than two weeks, Taiwan votes, setting the tone with China for the next four years. If the winner is Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te, previously a hardline advocate of Taiwanese independence, relations with Beijing are expected to deteriorate or remain frozen. The competing Kuomintang (KMT) and Taiwan People’s Party candidates promise to create less friction with China although all three parties oppose the “one country, two systems” principle espoused by Beijing.

Elsewhere, for the first time since it came to power three decades ago, South Africa’s African National Congress (ANC) faces a real risk of losing its parliamentary majority in the 2024 elections. Unemployment, an unstable economy and crime have broken the ANC’s dominance. Party leader and President Cyril Ramaphosa, who took office in 2018 after his scandal-plagued predecessor Jacob Zuma was effectively pushed out of office, himself faced questions over alleged corruption, which he denied.

4. Territorial disputes

As the wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East show, we are at in inflection point in geopolitics.

The tilt toward authoritarianism and long-predicted fracturing of Western hegemony has finally come home to roost. There has been a definitive shift away from American unipolarity, with China and Russia taking advantage of this retreat. The geopolitical axes of power are loosely realigning, with the US and EU on one side and an anti-US axis of China, Iran, Russia, and North Korea on the other. This is leading to bolder, less predictable actions and a more dangerous and uncertain global environment.

We will continue to witness this shift, which could be exacerbated by the posturing of non-aligned countries and the rise of competitive blocs such as BRICS.

Territorial disputes and revanchism are on the rise. Azerbaijan’s lightning seizure of the long-disputed Nagorno-Karabakh region is just one instance.

India and China continue to fight about and militarize the world’s longest-disputed border, which separates them. Smaller powers can take advantage of the Western disengagement and the blind eye that ascendant great powers will turn to their expansionist ambitions.

All the while, the increased use of United Nations Security Council veto power is paralyzing and inspires little confidence in the ability of supranational institutions to deter or respond to a world experiencing the most conflict since the second world war.

The inability of regional and international policymakers to negotiate a rapid return to civilian rule in response to a wave of coups in Africa also signals an absence of effective sanctions and leadership.

This raises the risk of contagion, with other countries potentially following suit – especially with the world’s attention fixed on the Middle East and, to a lesser extent, Ukraine.

5. AI comes of age

2024 looks set to see a tension between exponential artificial intelligence (AI) growth and attempts to regulate it, from governing institutions notoriously lacking in tech savvy.

Generative AI – which generates new data, like text, images or designs, by learning from existing data – dates back to the 1950s (we have to give Alan Turing his props here.) But it is only now that we are truly witnessing the paradigm shift as AI technology is widely available and impacting all aspects of our lives.

What does that mean in practice? Huge progress in image generation, design, speech synthesis, translation and automation. The rise of AI assistants and personalizing your tech interactions. Instead of text models like ChatGPT, image-generating models like DALL-E 2, and speech models being separate, they will be combined for a more holistic interface.

As we know, the rapid advancement of AI also brings new ethical challenges.

As AI systems become more advanced, questions about privacy, bias, and accountability become increasingly pertinent. How do we ensure that AI systems respect human rights and freedoms? How do we monitor and prevent AI interference in democratic processes? How do we mitigate the risk of bias in AI decision-making? These are just some of the questions that policymakers, researchers, and society at large must grapple with.

Increasingly sophisticated AI systems require serious processing power – which will mean an industry emphasis on expensive chips and quantum computing. The latter of those is the next frontier in pioneering research which relies on the peculiar and counterintuitive principles of subatomic physics. The information processing speeds of quantum computing and its analysis of data is in a different stratosphere. The integration of quantum computing into AI will mean models are trained faster with far enhanced capabilities for self-evolution.

AI experts cannot even comprehend the future extent and implications of the technology – an unsettling thought given the pace of change and its pervasive impact on humanity. But baked in to the open-ended and uncertain, even the pessimistic, is the potential for surprise and unexpected progress. On the cusp of 2024, humanity can at least cling to that proven constant.

It’s all in the timing. On New Year’s Day, a little under three months since Hamas’ terrorist attacks, Israel’s Supreme Court issued a historic ruling. In an 8-7 decision, it struck down a controversial amendment to a Basic Law that removed the court’s own power to quash government decisions on the grounds of “reasonableness.”

The decision was unprecedented: never before had the court thrown out one of Israel’s Basic Laws, which act as an informal constitution, or an amendment to one. It did so, it said, because of the “severe” and “unprecedented” blow the law posed to the core characteristic of Israel as a democratic state. And so, the court will once again have the power to act against government decisions, as it did when it prevented a convicted tax fraudster from serving in cabinet.

“I don’t think he has the ability,” to respond, says Amit Segal, chief political analyst at Israel’s Channel 12. “Prior to the war, his allies (far-right ministers, Itamar) Ben Gvir, and (Bezalel) Smotrich would have demanded him to do so and dragged him to do it. Now they can’t because it’s a war and after the war, I think it will be the least of his problems.”

The judicial overhaul package was Netanyahu’s flagship policy in his latest stint as prime minister. Having the one law from it that he managed to pass thrown out by the Supreme Court is a blow against him personally, and against his right-wing government’s divisive policies.

But as Segal says, he has bigger problems right now. After October 7, Netanyahu’s reputation as “Mr. Security” has been shredded. As well as overseeing the fight against Hamas in Gaza, he’s fighting for his own political life: recent polling by Israel Channel 13 suggests that if an election were to be held tomorrow, he’d be out of the job.

And so it was left to Yariv Levin, Netanyahu’s Justice Minister and the architect of the judicial overhaul plans, to say something. But all he did was assail the timing of the decision (which wasn’t in the Supreme Court’s gift due to the impending retirement of two judges), saying it was the opposite of the unity the country now demanded.

“Instead of turning this into a crisis,” says Hazan, “the government is basically going to swallow this and continue trying to prosecute the war and not go back to polarizing the country.”

It helps that opponents of the bill also took the ruling in their stride. Benny Gantz, the leader of the National Unity political bloc who now sits in the war cabinet, said the verdict must be respected, and Israel had to avoid reopening the wounds of the past year. “We are brothers,” he said. “We all have a common destiny.”

Dong’s experience, both as head of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) as well as operational assignments in the Chinese military’s Eastern and Southern theater commands, gives him an “unprecedented background” in the defense minister position, according to a report from the China Maritime Studies Institute (CMSI) at the US Naval War College in Rhode Island.

His resumé “reflects serious joint and naval focus under Xi with growing potential applications to disputed sovereignty claims in the East and South China Seas — none more important than Taiwan,” CMSI analysts Andrew Erickson and Christopher Sharman wrote in their report.

Carl Schuster, a former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center, said Dong “has international, joint and extensive naval experience in the two theaters that have been in the forefront of leader Xi Jinping’s most aggressive assertions of Chinese territorial claims.”

Xi, who has made taking control of Taiwan a cornerstone of his broader goal to “rejuvenate” China to a place of power and stature globally, said last month that the “reunification” of Taiwan with China is “inevitable.”

China’s Communist Party claims Taiwan as its own territory, despite never having controlled it. Chinese officials say they aim for peaceful “reunification” but have not ruled out using force to take control of the island.

China’s military has ramped up diplomatic, economic and military pressure on Taiwan under Xi.

Chinese jets now frequently cross into Taiwan’s air defense identification zone as well as over the unofficial, but until recently largely adhered to, “median line” that runs down the Taiwan Strait.

Crossings of the median line by Chinese warships have also become much more frequent.

Beijing is engaged in other sovereignty disputes, too, with Japan over the Senkuku Islands – which China calls the Diaoyus – in the East China Sea and with a handful of governments over contested reefs, shoals and islands in the South China Sea, almost all of which Beijing claims as its territory.

Though the defense minister position in China is a largely ceremonial role, serving as the public face of military diplomacy with other countries, Erickson and Sharman said Dong, with his experience, will make “a potent interlocutor with foreign counterparts.”

Possible Asian flashpoints

Tensions are heating up around the region, and diplomacy is becoming ever more vital amid hardening stances and unpredictable events.

A presidential election in Taiwan this month could have huge ramifications on the island’s relations with China – and tensions across the Taiwan Strait.

In the South China Sea, the China Coast Guard has been in more aggressive encounters with Philippine vessels trying to resupply a Philippine military outpost on disputed Second Thomas Shoal.

And in the Senkaku chain, which is controlled by Japan but claimed by China, more than 100 China Coast Guard and other vessels are entering Japan’s contiguous zone around the islands monthly, according to statistics provided by Japan’s Foreign Ministry in December.

Meanwhile late last year, Beijing reopened a key military communication line with Washington that had gone dormant after the visit of then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan in 2022.

As both the Philippines and Japan are US mutual defense treaty allies – and as Washington is obligated to support Taiwan’s self-defense – Dong’s abilities to speak with US counterparts to avoid any military escalation in all three areas could be vital to peace.

But if hostilities did break out, Dong could be an important adviser to commander-in-chief Xi, the analysts said.

“Admiral Dong, one of the PLA’s most experienced joint commanders, has deep expertise at the operational level of war,” Erickson and Sharman wrote.

Schuster notes Dong’s years of experience in the Southern Theater Command, encompassing the South China Sea, including as deputy commander of all PLA forces in the Southern Theater and commander of the PLA Navy units there.

He was also deputy commander of the East Sea Fleet, which operates in the East China Sea and the Taiwan Strait, Schuster said.

That shows Dong embodies “Xi’s priority on experiences that may be critical to his plans for the South China Sea and Taiwan,” Schuster said.

And it wasn’t just Dong who Xi appointed last week that points to the Chinese leader’s priorities, the analysts said.

A focus on submarines

Days before Xi elevated Dong to defense minister, he appointed Adm. Hu Zhongming as overall commander of the PLA Navy.

Hu, a career submarine officer with operational and command experience in the South China Sea, is considered by analysts to be a sensible choice for the role.

Submarines are one key area where the PLA Navy is widely regarded to be behind its potential adversary the US Navy.

In general, Chinese submarines are considered to be louder and easier to track than their American counterparts.

“The US still dominates war under the seas,” Paul Dibb, an emeritus professor of strategic studies at the Australian National University, wrote on the website of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute in December.

“For example, China’s strategic nuclear submarines (SSBNs) do not provide Beijing with an assured nuclear second-strike force because they are very vulnerable to US attack submarines (SSNs),” he wrote.

China is also considered to be behind the US in anti-submarine warfare, but has been investing in improvements in recent years, according to Schuster.

Hu would seem to be the perfect person to make improvements to the PLA’s submarine forces, said Alessio Patalano, professor of war and strategy at King’s College in London.

“As a submariner with considerable experience in managing risks and improving training, Admiral Hu will make sure that China’s most important strategic capability is brought up to the highest standards,” Patalano said.

Hu’s command experience includes two instances in which he is credited with averting what could have been catastrophic events, which led him to develop training procedures designed to prevent repeat occurrences, according to reports in state-run Chinese media.

The analysts highlighted Hu’s experience as a theater commander, supervising PLA forces over broad regions.

“Multi-fleet experience gives Admiral Hu unique insights into each fleet’s strengths and weaknesses that will enable him to provide organizational and training improvements to ensure PLAN readiness, as well as to offer uniquely tailored guidance for PLAN operational and tactical improvements,” Sharman and Erickson wrote.

Favoring the navy

While Xi filled two positions within China’s military hierarchy, those appointments came as nine military figures were removed from their positions in the National People’s Congress, China’s rubber stamp legislature – a rare move that signaled a wider purge in the PLA.

And the analysts pointed out that before Dong’s appointment, the defense minister position had been vacant for two months, since Li Shangfu was removed from the role without explanation following an extended absence from public view.

Xi has been on a decade-long drive to crackdown on corruption in China’s military ranks so the dismissal of the nine military figures, in particular, is fueling speculation about their potential alleged involvement in corruption.

No charges have been announced, but the affiliations of the nine dismissed officials gives some clues into what might be happening in China.

Only one of the nine was from the navy. Most were from the PLA Rocket Force, which is responsible for the China’s land-based nuclear and conventional missiles.

In the tightly controlled hierarchy of the Chinese Communist Party, the signposting is clear, Patalano said.

“The appointment of two naval officers at these key posts, especially defense minister, strongly suggests two things: the navy is regarded as the most loyal service to Xi; and it’s also the one that combines technical and professional knowledge with the aims of keeping China projecting power in its immediate periphery.”