For the first time since his death in 1882, Charles Darwin’s impressive library has been virtually reassembled to reveal the multitude of books, pamphlets and journals cited and read by the influential naturalist.

The author of numerous works, Darwin is perhaps best known for his 1859 book, “On the Origin of Species,” which introduced the fundamental scientific concept of evolution to the world.

In honor of the 215th anniversary of Darwin’s birthday on February 12, the research team behind the Darwin Online project has released a 300-page catalog that compiles the original 7,400 titles and 13,000 volumes originally owned by Darwin. The catalog includes 9,300 links to copies of the library contents that are available for free online, inviting the public to peruse what Darwin read.

“This unprecedentedly detailed view of Darwin’s complete library allows one to appreciate more than ever that he was not an isolated figure working alone but an expert of his time building on the sophisticated science and studies and other knowledge of thousands of people. Indeed, the size and range of works in the library makes manifest the extraordinary extent of Darwin’s research into the work of others,” said project leader Dr. John van Wyhe, historian of science at the National University of Singapore.

Piecing together a lost library

When Darwin was alive, he kept meticulous records of his library, including a 426-page handwritten “Catalogue of the Library of Charles Darwin” compiled in 1875. Initially after Darwin died, his library was preserved and recorded. But over time, much of its contents were lost or ended up elsewhere.

Two main collections featuring 1,480 books were kept at the University of Cambridge and Down House, Darwin’s family home in Downe, England, that remains open to the public. But the collections only included an estimated 15% of the original library.

After receiving letters from researchers and the public asking about specific titles from Darwin’s library, van Wyhe and his colleagues began their project to recreate it virtually in 2007.

“Scholars have been researching Darwin’s life and works for over a century,” van Wyhe said. “One of the most important elements in understanding Darwin’s theories is his sources — the publications by others that he used in his research.”

Institutions such as the Down House museum, the Cambridge University Library and Christ’s College Cambridge, as well as private collections, were used to track down the materials during the painstaking 18-year process.

Despite his disciplined recordkeeping, Darwin used abbreviated or vague ways to refer to journals and pamphlets in his collection, with many entries missing authors, dates or sources.

The project team combed over each piece of paper turned up during its search, sifting through handwritten family documents and letters, Darwin’s reading notebooks, his wife’s diaries and lists from scholars written a century ago. By comparing all the documents, the researchers found thousands of previously unknown titles, including bound books and unbound volumes and pamphlets, and traced the journey of titles sold at auction over the past 100 years.

“It has been like 5,000 little detective stories — trying to find out which author or article Darwin noted having — it is a joy to strike gold and find the exact source he was referring to,” van Wyhe said. “We can now show that originally he had far more in his impressive library.”

A surprising collection

Darwin naturally had a wealth of titles concerned with his main scientific interests, such as biology and geology. He owned a copy of an article authored by the ornithologist John James Audubon called “Account of the habits of the Turkey Buzzard (Vultura aura), particularly with the view of exploding the opinion generally entertained of its extraordinary power of smelling.”

The article, sold at auction in 1975, served as the inspiration behind one of Darwin’s investigations while sailing on the HMS Beagle. He was hired in 1831 as a naturalist aboard the ship and voyaged around South America and the surrounding islands, including the Galápagos, to study and collect plants and animals.

He owned a copy of “Explorations and Adventures in Equatorial Africa,” authored by Paul Du Chaillu after the zoologist became the first European to describe gorillas in the wild during expeditions to Africa in the 1850s. Darwin’s collection also included a German periodical that revealed the first published photographs of bacteria in 1877.

But the naturalist’s library contained multitudes, showcasing his thirst for knowledge, van Wyhe said. Darwin also read philosophers, such as John Stuart Mill and Auguste Comte, and had a number of works about psychology, religion, art, history, travel, farming and animal breeding and behavior.

Nearly half the books were written in French, German, Italian, Dutch, Danish, Latin, Spanish and Swedish — a surprising revelation given that Darwin was known as a poor linguist with a bad ear for languages, van Wyhe said.

“He was a very highly educated person who learned ancient Greek and Latin in school as well as French,” van Wyhe said. “He later learned Spanish and some Portuguese for the voyage of the Beagle and he taught himself (with dictionaries) to read German and Italian and he somehow got through other languages in the same way. This shows how determined he was to find out what other men of science had published and to extract information relevant for his theories.”

There is also evidence that Darwin read travelogues from explorers and missionaries to understand the gestures used by different ethnic groups.

And Darwin enjoyed reading novels as well. In 2019, a copy of Elizabeth Gaskell’s “Wives and Daughters,” a serial published as a book in 1866, appeared at auction, bearing a note that said, “This book was a great favourite of Charles Darwin’s and the last book to be read aloud to him.”

Exploring Darwin’s eclectic library showcases different sides of the scientist and will allow people to gain insights into who he was as a person, van Wyhe said.

“This is exactly what the library can show,” he said. “Instead of basing one’s understanding on the authors Darwin read that are mentioned in biographies, etc., anyone can now scroll through his whole library. The impression this gives is that he was a voracious reader and he got through an astonishing number of works.”

When Mount Vesuvius erupted nearly 2,000 years ago, volcanic debris buried Pompeii and created a city forever frozen in time.

Researchers consider the doomed metropolis to be one of the world’s most poignant archaeological sites.

Pompeii’s well-preserved expanse holds a multitude of finds that continue to surprise archaeologists as they unearth more of the lost city.

Intact items such as chariots, frescoes and even graffiti have shed light on what ancient Roman life was like in the prosperous resort before the cataclysmic event — and provided evidence of when the eruption occurred.

And now, researchers investigating artifacts from the neighboring city of Herculaneum are using new technology to peek beneath Vesuvius’ blanket of ash and mud to uncover more of history’s best kept secrets.

The wonder

Artificial intelligence has revealed the first nearly complete passages to be decoded from the charred, brittle Herculaneum scrolls.

The hundreds of burnt papyrus scrolls, which managed to survive Vesuvius’ eruption inside what experts believe was likely the house of Julius Caesar’s father-in-law, appear as though they could crumble at any moment.

But technological advances are making it possible to virtually unwrap the scrolls for the first time since AD 79, allowing papyrologists to translate the words of the philosopher Philodemus.

“(In these passages) he’s persuading the people who are listening to him to sort of relax, find good friendships, spend your time living in the moment and enjoying pleasures,” said Roger Macfarlane, a professor of classical studies at Brigham Young University.

Ocean secrets

It’s known as the most dangerous and terrifying part of the ocean.

The Drake Passage, spanning 600 miles (965 kilometers) wide, is squeezed between South America and Antarctica.

Landmasses help to slow storms that gather strength across oceans. But there is nothing to stop screaming winds, towering waves and the world’s strongest storms that whip up in the deep waters of the Drake.

The marine region’s underwater mountains intrigue scientists, and it’s a crossing that ship captains ferrying tourists must make — and they do it with a healthy dose of fear.

Fantastic creatures

A serene image of a polar bear napping on an iceberg off Norway’s Svalbard archipelago has received the Wildlife Photographer of the Year People’s Choice Award.

“Whilst climate change is the biggest challenge we face, I hope that this photograph also inspires hope; there is still time to fix the mess we have caused,” said British amateur photographer Nima Sarikhani, who took the image.

The winning photo will be on display until June 30 at London’s Natural History Museum, along with finalist images showcasing a sweet moment of lion parenting and glowing moon jellyfish beneath the northern lights.

Curiosities

Australian scientists have discovered an unlikely ally in their quest to track endangered species: spiders.

Not only do the fine webs spun by the eight-legged critters trap prey such as flies, the silken structures also are capturing environmental DNA.

When researchers collected spiderwebs from Western Australia’s Perth Zoo and the Karakamia woodland sanctuary, they were able to identify genetic material from 93 animals.

“With only trace amounts of DNA needed to identify animals, this cheap and non-invasive method could be a game-changer in how we explore and protect our terrestrial biodiversity,” said Joshua Newton, a doctoral student at Curtin University’s School of Molecular and Life Sciences.

Meanwhile, a new finding could explain why insects cluster beneath bright artificial lights at night — and it’s not because they’re drawn to the glow like “moths to a flame.”

Other worlds

Mimas, one of Saturn’s tiniest moons, is known for a giant crater that gives the satellite an uncanny resemblance to the Death Star from the “Star Wars” films.

Now, astronomers think the cratered chunk of ice orbiting Saturn has a deep secret: a hidden ocean.

An international team of researchers analyzed data collected from NASA’s Cassini mission and noticed that Mimas’ spin and orbital motion have changed over time likely due to the presence of a global ocean beneath its icy crust.

The study team was surprised to discover that the ocean is relatively young, astronomically speaking, at only 5 million to 15 million years old. Mimas could change the way scientists understand ocean worlds across our solar system, which may harbor life beyond Earth.

Explorations

Share these fascinating reads with your friends:

— Archaeologists unearthed an ancient burial site, including a rare wooden bed used in a Roman funeral, during excavations in the heart of London.

— The PACE mission launched this week to study the “invisible universe” of Earth’s microscopic marine life and atmospheric particles from space.

— A “super-Earth”— plus evidence of a second Earth-size planet — has been spotted orbiting in the habitable zone of a star 137 light-years away.

— Researchers found a fresh clue that sheds light on how microscopic tardigrades, also called water bears, are able to survive in some of Earth’s most challenging environments.

— Curious about what April’s total solar eclipse will look like in your city? Check out our interactive map to see how much of the sun’s face will be blocked, based on your location.

Lengthy inspections, rejected humanitarian aid and Israeli bombs raining down. Those are some of the hurdles to relief reaching the 2.2 million Palestinians in war-torn Gaza.

The United Nations’ Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs and Emergency Relief, Martin Griffiths, has described the process as “in all practical terms, impossible.”

Gaza was placed under a complete Israeli siege on October 9, when Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said he would halt the supply of electricity, food, water and fuel to the enclave after Hamas attacked his country, killing 1,200 people and taking more than 250 hostages. Israel has since begun allowing some aid to enter.

Some four months since Israel began its retaliatory military campaign in Gaza, it is yet to complete its objective of destroying Hamas and the war rages on, leaving most of Gaza’s civilian population at the mercy of aid that must be approved by Israel.

While aid reaching the Gaza Strip was insufficient even before October 7, according to the UN, the humanitarian situation has been greatly hit by the conflict, which has killed more than 27,000 people, according to the Hamas-run health ministry in the enclave, and displaced more than 1.9 million others.

Getting any form of relief into Gaza is a long and arduous process, aid workers and the UN say.

An average of 95 aid trucks per day entered Gaza between October 10 and February 1, according to the Palestinian Red Crescent, down from 500 commercial and aid trucks a day before the war, when Palestinians weren’t facing mass displacement and starvation. Some 2 million Gazans are dependent on UN aid now.

Relief operations are expected to be further hampered after the United States and other top donors suspend funding for UNRWA, the main agency responsible for aid distribution in Gaza. The donors pulled their funding over allegations by Israel that some of its staff were involved in the Hamas attacks.

UNRWA has warned it may be forced to halt its operations by the end of the month due to lack of funds. And on Thursday, UNRWA Commissioner-General Philippe Lazzarini said the agency has not been able to deliver food into Gaza since January 23, adding that since the beginning of the year, “half of UN’s aid mission requests to the north were denied.”

“The UN has identified deep pockets of starvation and hunger in northern Gaza where people are believed to be on the verge of famine,” Lazzarini said on X.

Israel has also been accused of deliberately obstructing aid. Egypt, which shares a border with Gaza, has charged that the policy is “systematic, and aimed at pushing Palestinians to leave Gaza under the continued bombing and siege,” an Egyptian foreign ministry spokesperson said in November.

Israel maintains that it is working to respond to the needs on the ground in Gaza, saying that “it is at war with Hamas and not the people of Gaza.” Last month, it told the International Court of Justice that “there is no limit on the amount of food, water, shelter or medical supplies that can be brought into Gaza.”

Here’s why aid is slow to get into Gaza:

Limited entry points

Before the war started, Israel restricted all access to and from Gaza by sea and air and had land crossings under tight control. It had two functional crossings with the enclave: Erez, which was for the movement of people, and Kerem Shalom, for goods.

Movement through all three crossings was already heavily restricted before the war, as Israel imposed a blockade of the territory with Egypt 17 years ago. After the current war began, Erez and Kerem Shalom were shut for several weeks. On October 21, Rafah began allowing aid to trickle in.

In mid-December, Israel began conducting security checks on aid for Gaza at its own crossings before it was sent to Rafah. It said at the time that the move would double the volume of aid delivered through Rafah, but aid workers have said the additional inspection points were insufficient, according to the UN. Egypt criticized the measures as unreasonable, saying it hinders the flow of aid. Following pressure from the US, Israel began allowing aid trucks to pass through Kerem Shalom in late December.

Aid delivery through Egypt is also hampered by the fact that the Rafah crossing is designed as an entry point for people, not goods, making it difficult for large convoys to pass through.

Long inspections, rejected items

The war has prompted Israel to conduct more stringent checks on aid as it seeks to prevent the entry of what it calls “dual-use equipment,” products it says are “intended for civilian use but liable to serve military needs for the strengthening of Hamas.”

Trucks carrying aid must pass through three layers of inspection before they can enter the enclave, Griffiths, the UN under-secretary-general, has said.

The long queues for inspection have led to bottlenecks at the Rafah crossing, the UN’s World Food Programme (WFP) said last month, adding that among items deemed “dual use” by Israel are power generators, crutches, field hospital kits, inflatable water tanks, wooden boxes of children’s toys and, “perhaps most depressingly, 600 oxygen tanks.”

The list of rejected items is only growing, Griffiths said.

Protesters blocking trucks

Israeli protesters have more than once blocked trucks carrying humanitarian aid for Gaza via Israeli crossings. They have demanded that the aid only be delivered in exchange for the release of the hostages. The protesters are with the “Tsav 9’” movement, a grouping of families of hostages, fallen soldiers, demobilized reservists, and displaced Israeli civilians.

Israel says more than 100 hostages are still held captive in Gaza.

Some of the protests have caused aid disruptions lasting days, UNRWA said.

Following the protests, Israel declared Kerem Shalom and the Nitzana crossing with Egypt military zones, a move that led to some arrests, according to Israeli media.

Disruptions were renewed this week as hundreds of Israeli protesters returned to Kerem Shalom Tuesday.

Risk of bombardment

Once relief enters Gaza, Israeli bombardment, damage to roads from airstrikes, communications blackouts and mass displacement impede distribution within the enclave.

“It becomes very difficult to make phone calls to coordinate, to organize the delivery of humanitarian assistance,” Touma, the UNRWA spokesperson, said. In the wake of the war, Israel cut electricity to Gaza and service providers said airstrikes destroyed vital communications network infrastructure. The territory has since experienced multiple communication blackouts, leaving Palestinians unable to contact each other or the outside world.

“It is extremely difficult to deliver humanitarian assistance under fire,” Touma said on Monday. “We fear for (workers’) lives because no place is safe in Gaza.”

In recent days, Israel has pressed its military offensive further into central, southern and in neighborhoods across northern Gaza – where UN agencies have struggled to reach displaced civilians facing starvation, dehydration and deadly disease.

On Friday, the World Food Programme said it had been unable to reach northern Gaza City for the third time in a week, as a  full-scale famine looms. Touma says Israeli authorities must approve humanitarian convoys waiting to enter the north at the Wadi Gaza checkpoint that separates the north and south of the strip. Beyond that, she said, there are around 300,000 people “living in desperate conditions.”

“Then you have overwhelming needs on the ground that are way, way beyond the capacity of humanitarian agencies because not much aid is coming in,” Touma said, adding that Gazans are “absolutely tired, fatigued, desperate and so quite often what happens is that people come to the humanitarian convoys, and they help themselves to the convoys.”

Italy has been shaken by the alleged gang rape of a 13-year-old girl in front of her boyfriend in a public park in the Sicilian city of Catania, the latest in a string of shocking sexual attacks in the country.

The case is reminiscent of two alleged gang rapes last summer. A group of seven men and teenage boys between the ages of 15 and 18 are currently on trial for the alleged rape of a 19-year-old girl in Palermo in August.

Weeks later nine young men were arrested and charged with allegedly raping two cousins aged 10 and 12 near Naples and broadcasting the attack live on social media. They, too, are facing trial.

The case was soon seized upon as evidence that migrants should be blocked from entering the country.

Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, came to power in September 2022 on an anti-immigration platform, but her efforts to curb irregular migration into the country have so far been unsuccessful.

The men accused in the latest Sicilian case entered Italy by boat in 2021 and 2022 as unaccompanied minors, according to Catania police. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, one of the country’s most visible far-right figures, said on X that they should not have been allowed to stay.

Meanwhile, during a visit to Catania, Meloni expressed her solidarity with the alleged rape victim and her family.

“The state will be there, and the state will guarantee that justice will be done,” she said.

The ways in which the cases between those with Italian suspects and those with Egyptian suspects are being handled are already drawing scrutiny.

Those who were now over the age of 18, and therefore not categorized as unaccompanied minors, no longer had the right to stay in the country because Egyptians do not qualify for asylum in Italy.

Italy’s interior ministry has called for a thorough review of all centers housing unaccompanied minors to see if similar cases exist.

Migration blamed

Italy has long struggled with the problem of gender-based violence.

In November, both houses of parliament unanimously passed a new measure strengthening punishments against perpetrators of gender-based violence and increasing protective measures for women who fear for their lives.

The legislation was inspired by the case of Giulia Cecchettin, a 22-year-old woman murdered by an ex-boyfriend. She was one of 118 femicides in Italy last year. In 2022, women were the victims of 91% of homicides committed by family members, partners or former partners, according to the European Data Journalism Network.

“Violence against women is a phenomenon that’s more or less present in all countries, caused by structural causes like the disparity between men and women, stereotypes and prejudices,” Elena Biaggioni, vice president of D.i.Re, a national association that coordinates anti-violence centers and women’s shelters, said last June.

Speaking at a protest after a pregnant woman was allegedly stabbed to death by her partner, she added:  “But of course in countries where there’s a macho culture and sexism is stronger, like Italy, this violence is justified in a different way.”

Yet in the latest case, officials have centered their attention on the background of the alleged perpetrators.

The judge investigating the most recent case, Carlo Umberto Cannella, said the suspects were likely to reoffend because they were not “accustomed to civilization.”

He ruled that they should all remain in prison while the investigation is underway.

“It appears clear that there is a danger of repetition of the crime also in light of the fact that the horror only ended thanks to the girl’s attempt to free herself,” Cannella said  Wednesday as he ruled that the suspects should not be released on bail, according to a court spokesperson.

In a scathing op-ed in the right-leaning newspaper Il Giornale, which was founded by the family of the late former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, the editors also blamed migration for the alleged Sicily rape.

“Why are these individuals, without any requirement to access international protection, still in Italy and have not been subject to expulsion?” the editors wrote.

“Because upon arrival in our country they declared themselves minors and the law prevents the rejection of irregular immigrants who have not yet reached the age of majority. Now they will go to trial for rape but, in the meantime, that little girl will forever carry with her the pain and trauma of rape, suffered at just 13 years old. This is not the first case of non-EU minors being welcomed into Italian facilities and then engaging in criminal activities.”

Italy has been shaken by the alleged gang rape of a 13-year-old girl in front of her boyfriend in a public park in the Sicilian city of Catania, the latest in a string of shocking sexual attacks in the country.

The case is reminiscent of two alleged gang rapes last summer. A group of seven men and teenage boys between the ages of 15 and 18 are currently on trial for the alleged rape of a 19-year-old girl in Palermo in August.

Weeks later nine young men were arrested and charged with allegedly raping two cousins aged 10 and 12 near Naples and broadcasting the attack live on social media. They, too, are facing trial.

The case was soon seized upon as evidence that migrants should be blocked from entering the country.

Italy’s prime minister, Giorgia Meloni, came to power in September 2022 on an anti-immigration platform, but her efforts to curb irregular migration into the country have so far been unsuccessful.

The men accused in the latest Sicilian case entered Italy by boat in 2021 and 2022 as unaccompanied minors, according to Catania police. Italian Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini, one of the country’s most visible far-right figures, said on X that they should not have been allowed to stay.

Meanwhile, during a visit to Catania, Meloni expressed her solidarity with the alleged rape victim and her family.

“The state will be there, and the state will guarantee that justice will be done,” she said.

The ways in which the cases between those with Italian suspects and those with Egyptian suspects are being handled are already drawing scrutiny.

Those who were now over the age of 18, and therefore not categorized as unaccompanied minors, no longer had the right to stay in the country because Egyptians do not qualify for asylum in Italy.

Italy’s interior ministry has called for a thorough review of all centers housing unaccompanied minors to see if similar cases exist.

Migration blamed

Italy has long struggled with the problem of gender-based violence.

In November, both houses of parliament unanimously passed a new measure strengthening punishments against perpetrators of gender-based violence and increasing protective measures for women who fear for their lives.

The legislation was inspired by the case of Giulia Cecchettin, a 22-year-old woman murdered by an ex-boyfriend. She was one of 118 femicides in Italy last year. In 2022, women were the victims of 91% of homicides committed by family members, partners or former partners, according to the European Data Journalism Network.

“Violence against women is a phenomenon that’s more or less present in all countries, caused by structural causes like the disparity between men and women, stereotypes and prejudices,” Elena Biaggioni, vice president of D.i.Re, a national association that coordinates anti-violence centers and women’s shelters, said last June.

Speaking at a protest after a pregnant woman was allegedly stabbed to death by her partner, she added:  “But of course in countries where there’s a macho culture and sexism is stronger, like Italy, this violence is justified in a different way.”

Yet in the latest case, officials have centered their attention on the background of the alleged perpetrators.

The judge investigating the most recent case, Carlo Umberto Cannella, said the suspects were likely to reoffend because they were not “accustomed to civilization.”

He ruled that they should all remain in prison while the investigation is underway.

“It appears clear that there is a danger of repetition of the crime also in light of the fact that the horror only ended thanks to the girl’s attempt to free herself,” Cannella said  Wednesday as he ruled that the suspects should not be released on bail, according to a court spokesperson.

In a scathing op-ed in the right-leaning newspaper Il Giornale, which was founded by the family of the late former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi, the editors also blamed migration for the alleged Sicily rape.

“Why are these individuals, without any requirement to access international protection, still in Italy and have not been subject to expulsion?” the editors wrote.

“Because upon arrival in our country they declared themselves minors and the law prevents the rejection of irregular immigrants who have not yet reached the age of majority. Now they will go to trial for rape but, in the meantime, that little girl will forever carry with her the pain and trauma of rape, suffered at just 13 years old. This is not the first case of non-EU minors being welcomed into Italian facilities and then engaging in criminal activities.”

A crucial system of ocean currents may already be on course to collapse, according to a new report, with alarming implications for sea level rise and global weather — leading temperatures to plunge dramatically in some regions and rise in others.

Using exceptionally complex and expensive computing systems, scientists found a new way to detect an early warning signal for the collapse of these currents, according to the study published Friday in the journal Science Advances. And as the planet warms, there are already indications it is heading in this direction.

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (the AMOC) — of which the Gulf Stream is part — works like a giant global conveyor belt, taking warm water from the tropics toward the far North Atlantic, where the water cools, becomes saltier and sinks deep into the ocean, before spreading southward.

The currents carry heat and nutrients to different areas of the globe and play a vital role in keeping the climate of large parts of the Northern Hemisphere relatively mild.

For decades, scientists have been sounding the alarm on the circulation’s stability as climate change warms the ocean and melts ice, disrupting the balance of heat and salt that determines the currents’ strength.

While many scientists believe the AMOC will slow under climate change, and could even grind to a halt, there remains huge uncertainty over when and how fast this could happen. The AMOC has only been monitored continuously since 2004.

Scientists do know — from building a picture of the past using things like ice cores and ocean sediments — the AMOC shut down more than 12,000 years ago following rapid glacier melt.

Now they are scrambling to work out if it could happen again.

This new study provides an “important breakthrough,” said René van Westen, a marine and atmospheric researcher at the University of Utrecht in the Netherlands and study co-author.

The scientists used a supercomputer to run complex climate models over a period of three months, simulating a gradual increase of freshwater to the AMOC — representing ice melt as well as rainfall and river runoff, which can dilute the ocean’s salinity and weaken the currents.

As they slowly increased the freshwater in the model, they saw the AMOC gradually weaken until it abruptly collapsed. It’s the first time a collapse has been detectable using these complex models, representing “bad news for the climate system and humanity,” the report says.

“But we can at least say that we are heading in the direction of the tipping point under climate change,” van Westen said.

The impacts of the AMOC’s collapse could be catastrophic. Some parts of Europe might see temperatures plunge by up to 30 degrees Celsius over a century, the study finds, leading to a completely different climate over the course of just a decade or two.

“No realistic adaptation measures can deal with such rapid temperature changes,” the study authors write.

Countries in the Southern Hemisphere, on the other hand, could see increased warming, while the Amazon’s wet and dry seasons could flip, causing serious disruption to the ecosystem.

The AMOC’s collapse could also cause sea levels to surge by around 1 meter (3.3 feet), van Westen said.

Stefan Rahmstorf, a physical oceanographer at Potsdam University in Germany, who was not involved with the study, said it was “a major advance in AMOC stability science.”

Previous studies finding the AMOC’s tipping point used much simpler models, he said, giving hope to some scientists that it might not be found under more complex models.

This study crushes those hopes, Rahmstorf said.

Joel Hirschi, associate head of marine systems modeling at the National Oceanography Centre in the UK, said the study was the first to use complex climate models to show the AMOC can flip from “on” to “off” in response to relatively small amounts of freshwater entering the ocean.

But there are reasons to be cautious, he added. Even though the study used a complex model, it still has a low resolution, he said, meaning there could be limitations in representing some parts of the currents.

This study adds to the growing body of evidence that the AMOC may be approaching a tipping point — and that it could even be close.

A 2021 study found that the AMOC was weaker than any other time in the past 1,000 years. And a particularly alarming — and somewhat controversial — report published in July last year, concluded that the AMOC could be on course to collapse potentially as early as 2025.

Yet huge uncertainties remain. Jeffrey Kargel, senior scientist at the Planetary Science Institute in Arizona, said he suspected the theory of a potentially imminent shutdown of the AMOC “will remain somewhat controversial until, one year, we know that it is happening.”

He likened its potential collapse to the “wild gyrations of a stock market that precede a major crash” — it’s nearly impossible to unpick which changes are reversible, and which are a precursor to a disaster.

Modern data shows the AMOC’s strength fluctuates, but there is no observed evidence yet of a decline, Hirschi said. “Whether abrupt changes in the AMOC similar to those seen in the past will occur as our climate continues to warm is an important open question.”

This study is a piece of that puzzle, Rahmstorf said. “(It) adds significantly to the rising concern about an AMOC collapse in the not too distant future,” he said. “We will ignore this risk at our peril.”

The worst kept secret in Kyiv has finally been confirmed: the man who led Ukraine’s armed forces for two years is out of his job.

President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced General Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Thursday, after 10 days of rumor and speculation – and months of a fraying relationship.

The announcement comes at a critical moment in the war with Russia and is likely to herald a change in Ukrainian strategy. But it is also hazardous.

The removal of Zaluzhnyi from his position as commander-in-chief comes as Ukrainian units are on the backfoot in several parts of the long front line, especially in the eastern Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. They are desperately short of shells and other munitions and running short of experienced soldiers.

The Russian war machine is running at full tilt and has a much larger pool of men to draw from than Ukraine to replenish its ranks. Russia is skirting international sanctions and its oil revenues help fund plentiful war spending.

Zelensky said he and Zaluzhnyi had a “frank discussion about what needs to be changed in the army. Urgent changes.” He added that “the feeling of stagnation in the southern areas and the difficulties in the fighting in Donetsk region have affected the public mood.”

The public mood is indeed gloomier. According to a recent survey in Ukraine, those who believe that events are going in the wrong direction increased from 16% in May 2022 to 33% in December 2023.

It’s unlikely that Zaluzhnyi’s replacement, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, will offer a radical change of style but he is thought to be closer to Zelensky.

Syrskyi has been in command of land forces since the Russian invasion but was criticized for extending the defense of Bakhmut at great human cost. Subordinates have described him as lacking empathy and some soldiers took to calling him “General 200” (200 is the military code for killed-in-action.)

“Syrskyi is seen a consensus choice,” says Matthew Schmidt, director of the International Affairs program at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.

“Some say he’s too Soviet, meaning unimaginative but capable, some say he doesn’t take uncomfortable truths well – something Zaluzhnyi did – and some say he’s the best of the worst kind of general.”

Schmidt says there are few options right now. “Maybe it’s a phase in the war where a safe choice is the right move.”

Syrskyi’s most urgent task will be to stabilize the front lines. Also in his inbox: how to replenish the depleted ranks of some of Ukraine’s best brigades and how to expedite the arrival of Western munitions at the front lines – and how to cope until that happens.

Other priorities include: what stress to place on longer-range strikes against Russian infrastructure such as fuel depots and military bases, integrating F-16 combat aircraft into battle plans, and the rapid development of the next generation of unmanned systems.

Shortages on the frontlines

Amid persistent Russian attacks around Avdiivka and Kupyansk, “the first priority is make sure you can hold the current line of contact,” Schmidt says.

“Putin’s tactical weakness doesn’t mean he can’t kill thousands of his soldiers in an attempt to take significant chunks of territory. Any new chief of staff has to respect that risk,” he adds.

“It’s better than no shells,” one soldier said.

With the Biden administration’s package of $61 billion in military aid blocked in Congress, the US has been sending smaller packages for several months, and the slowdown has already begun affecting the Ukrainian military’s planning and operations, according to US officials.

Schmidt says “the immediate priority is to get enough artillery shells to the front to keep the Russians from exploiting the pause in US aid. Each artillery shell that’s available to fire equates to needing fewer infantry to hold the line.”

Unclogging the pipeline of US military aid and boosting European production of munitions are critical priorities if Ukraine is to move from hanging on to fighting back. The EU has acknowledged it will fall far short of its goal of producing one million artillery shells for Ukraine in the year to March, estimating the number will be roughly half of that.

This week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “If you ask a soldier at the front what he needs most right now, he will say shells. This answer was the same yesterday, a month ago, six months ago and a year ago.”

“The main goal is to ensure that the shell shortage never turns into a shell famine,” he added.

Outnumbered

Ukraine’s more professional units are exhausted by two years of non-stop combat, their ranks thinned by casualties. Ukraine does not publish figures, but US officials estimate that as many as 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and nearly twice that number injured.

The scale and speed of additional mobilization in Ukraine is a thorny political question, and one source of the rift between Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, who said the military needed another half-million soldiers and criticized “gaps in our legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities.”

A bill passing through the Ukrainian parliament would lower the minimum age for the draft to 25 from 27 (a provision Zelensky did not sign last year) and introduce harsh punishments for people who flout mobilization rules. Citizens of military age would be obliged to carry military registration documents with them.

A more ambitious version of the bill was withdrawn amid public criticism, and it remains to be seen how effective the new measure is in addressing serious shortfalls. Zelensky is concerned about the government’s ability to pay for a larger standing army (frontline pay is six times the average Ukrainian wage at $3000 per month) and about the political risk.

“The population is still committed to the fight, we see that in opinion surveys, but they’re exhausted,” Schmidt says.

Unmanned systems

Zaluzhnyi has persistently argued that given Russia’s higher pool of manpower and armor, Ukraine needs a step-change in its battlefield technology: more sophisticated drones and other unmanned systems would provide real-time intelligence and accurate targeting information, for example.

In his recent essay Zaluzhnyi suggested that turbo-charging such investment, as well as embracing cyber technology, could produce results within five months.

Time is of the essence. The Russian military continues to make mistakes, but it is learning and adapting, especially in the exploitation of attack and reconnaissance drones and electronic warfare.

The Russian military has also exploited glide technology to deliver aerial bombs more accurately, one reason that the Ukrainian offensive in the south faltered last summer.

Put simply, Ukraine needs to widen the technological gap, as Zelensky acknowledged in his address announcing the leadership shake-up. Its rapidly expanding domestic drone industry will be critical in that effort and is already showing results.

First person, or ‘FPV’ drones deployed in the Avdiivka area have had a devastating effect on Russian attempts to encircle the town, inflicting heavy losses on tanks and munitions vehicles. Lt. Gen. Serhii Naiev, Commander of Ukraine’s Joint Forces, says they are a “much cheaper but no less effective means of destroying enemy equipment and manpower than anti-tank missile systems and artillery ammunition.”

The introduction of F-16s, expected at the earliest this spring, should erode the Russians’ edge in the skies, but Zaluzhnyi’s stated goal of achieving absolute air superiority to enable Ukraine to go on the offensive seems a distant prospect. Meshing the new combat planes into an overall battle strategy will be a critical task for Syrskyi.

One area where the Ukrainians have been successful in recent months is in extending their attacks against Russian military infrastructure, transport links and refineries, as far away as St Petersburg and the Russian Far East.

The recent drone or UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) strike on a refinery in Volgograd was the latest win in a series of targeted strikes.

More significant still, and despite having virtually no navy of its own, the special operations run by Budanov and the Security Service (SBU) have “allowed Ukraine to bottle up the Russian Black Sea Fleet in port…while also destroying multiple air-defense and ammunition sites in Crimea,” according to the US Naval Institute.

Ukraine has pioneered the development of maritime drones to take out several of the Black Sea Fleet’s warships. Aerial drones, missiles and sabotage operations have at least disrupted Russian logistics.

“They need to interdict Russia supply lines in Ukraine and make the Russian public feel the war in their daily lives. If Putin has to move resources to protect his rear, that means less to go on the attack with,” in Schmidt’s view.

Big shoes to fill

Over the past year, a sense of optimism among Ukraine’s allies and frontline commanders alike has given way to a darker mood, as Zelensky has acknowledged. Zaluzhnyi’s gloomy assessment in December was that “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” a comment that did not endear him to the presidency.

Exhaustion at home, squabbles among allies (the EU versus Hungary) and the paralysis in Congress have added to what is a bleak outlook. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been buoyed by the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House.

Filling Zaluzhnyi’s shoes won’t be easy.

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general who has visited Ukraine and met with senior officials, describes him as a “charismatic and popular military leader who anticipated and prepared in the weeks before the Russian large-scale invasion.”

Syrskyi has his own achievements, especially the defense of Kyiv in the early days and the lightning offensive that recovered swathes of Kharkiv in September 2022.

But the conflict has changed vastly since then.

In the immediate future, the Ukrainian leadership must show unity after what has been a messy changeover. Myhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the office of the President, said that “during a war, political competition, especially at the level of the army, generals, and politicians, doesn’t look so good.”

Instilling a new sense of purpose is all the more important as Ukraine faces a window of vulnerability.

As Matthew Schmidt puts it, Putin “can throw bodies at the enemy, using Russian quantity to overcome Ukrainian quality. It’s a very Stalinist approach to the battlefield, and it’s built into Russian strategic culture.”

The worst kept secret in Kyiv has finally been confirmed: the man who led Ukraine’s armed forces for two years is out of his job.

President Volodymyr Zelensky replaced General Valerii Zaluzhnyi on Thursday, after 10 days of rumor and speculation – and months of a fraying relationship.

The announcement comes at a critical moment in the war with Russia and is likely to herald a change in Ukrainian strategy. But it is also hazardous.

The removal of Zaluzhnyi from his position as commander-in-chief comes as Ukrainian units are on the backfoot in several parts of the long front line, especially in the eastern Donetsk and Kharkiv regions. They are desperately short of shells and other munitions and running short of experienced soldiers.

The Russian war machine is running at full tilt and has a much larger pool of men to draw from than Ukraine to replenish its ranks. Russia is skirting international sanctions and its oil revenues help fund plentiful war spending.

Zelensky said he and Zaluzhnyi had a “frank discussion about what needs to be changed in the army. Urgent changes.” He added that “the feeling of stagnation in the southern areas and the difficulties in the fighting in Donetsk region have affected the public mood.”

The public mood is indeed gloomier. According to a recent survey in Ukraine, those who believe that events are going in the wrong direction increased from 16% in May 2022 to 33% in December 2023.

It’s unlikely that Zaluzhnyi’s replacement, General Oleksandr Syrskyi, will offer a radical change of style but he is thought to be closer to Zelensky.

Syrskyi has been in command of land forces since the Russian invasion but was criticized for extending the defense of Bakhmut at great human cost. Subordinates have described him as lacking empathy and some soldiers took to calling him “General 200” (200 is the military code for killed-in-action.)

“Syrskyi is seen a consensus choice,” says Matthew Schmidt, director of the International Affairs program at the University of New Haven in Connecticut.

“Some say he’s too Soviet, meaning unimaginative but capable, some say he doesn’t take uncomfortable truths well – something Zaluzhnyi did – and some say he’s the best of the worst kind of general.”

Schmidt says there are few options right now. “Maybe it’s a phase in the war where a safe choice is the right move.”

Syrskyi’s most urgent task will be to stabilize the front lines. Also in his inbox: how to replenish the depleted ranks of some of Ukraine’s best brigades and how to expedite the arrival of Western munitions at the front lines – and how to cope until that happens.

Other priorities include: what stress to place on longer-range strikes against Russian infrastructure such as fuel depots and military bases, integrating F-16 combat aircraft into battle plans, and the rapid development of the next generation of unmanned systems.

Shortages on the frontlines

Amid persistent Russian attacks around Avdiivka and Kupyansk, “the first priority is make sure you can hold the current line of contact,” Schmidt says.

“Putin’s tactical weakness doesn’t mean he can’t kill thousands of his soldiers in an attempt to take significant chunks of territory. Any new chief of staff has to respect that risk,” he adds.

“It’s better than no shells,” one soldier said.

With the Biden administration’s package of $61 billion in military aid blocked in Congress, the US has been sending smaller packages for several months, and the slowdown has already begun affecting the Ukrainian military’s planning and operations, according to US officials.

Schmidt says “the immediate priority is to get enough artillery shells to the front to keep the Russians from exploiting the pause in US aid. Each artillery shell that’s available to fire equates to needing fewer infantry to hold the line.”

Unclogging the pipeline of US military aid and boosting European production of munitions are critical priorities if Ukraine is to move from hanging on to fighting back. The EU has acknowledged it will fall far short of its goal of producing one million artillery shells for Ukraine in the year to March, estimating the number will be roughly half of that.

This week, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said: “If you ask a soldier at the front what he needs most right now, he will say shells. This answer was the same yesterday, a month ago, six months ago and a year ago.”

“The main goal is to ensure that the shell shortage never turns into a shell famine,” he added.

Outnumbered

Ukraine’s more professional units are exhausted by two years of non-stop combat, their ranks thinned by casualties. Ukraine does not publish figures, but US officials estimate that as many as 70,000 Ukrainian soldiers have been killed and nearly twice that number injured.

The scale and speed of additional mobilization in Ukraine is a thorny political question, and one source of the rift between Zelensky and Zaluzhnyi, who said the military needed another half-million soldiers and criticized “gaps in our legislation that allow citizens to evade their responsibilities.”

A bill passing through the Ukrainian parliament would lower the minimum age for the draft to 25 from 27 (a provision Zelensky did not sign last year) and introduce harsh punishments for people who flout mobilization rules. Citizens of military age would be obliged to carry military registration documents with them.

A more ambitious version of the bill was withdrawn amid public criticism, and it remains to be seen how effective the new measure is in addressing serious shortfalls. Zelensky is concerned about the government’s ability to pay for a larger standing army (frontline pay is six times the average Ukrainian wage at $3000 per month) and about the political risk.

“The population is still committed to the fight, we see that in opinion surveys, but they’re exhausted,” Schmidt says.

Unmanned systems

Zaluzhnyi has persistently argued that given Russia’s higher pool of manpower and armor, Ukraine needs a step-change in its battlefield technology: more sophisticated drones and other unmanned systems would provide real-time intelligence and accurate targeting information, for example.

In his recent essay Zaluzhnyi suggested that turbo-charging such investment, as well as embracing cyber technology, could produce results within five months.

Time is of the essence. The Russian military continues to make mistakes, but it is learning and adapting, especially in the exploitation of attack and reconnaissance drones and electronic warfare.

The Russian military has also exploited glide technology to deliver aerial bombs more accurately, one reason that the Ukrainian offensive in the south faltered last summer.

Put simply, Ukraine needs to widen the technological gap, as Zelensky acknowledged in his address announcing the leadership shake-up. Its rapidly expanding domestic drone industry will be critical in that effort and is already showing results.

First person, or ‘FPV’ drones deployed in the Avdiivka area have had a devastating effect on Russian attempts to encircle the town, inflicting heavy losses on tanks and munitions vehicles. Lt. Gen. Serhii Naiev, Commander of Ukraine’s Joint Forces, says they are a “much cheaper but no less effective means of destroying enemy equipment and manpower than anti-tank missile systems and artillery ammunition.”

The introduction of F-16s, expected at the earliest this spring, should erode the Russians’ edge in the skies, but Zaluzhnyi’s stated goal of achieving absolute air superiority to enable Ukraine to go on the offensive seems a distant prospect. Meshing the new combat planes into an overall battle strategy will be a critical task for Syrskyi.

One area where the Ukrainians have been successful in recent months is in extending their attacks against Russian military infrastructure, transport links and refineries, as far away as St Petersburg and the Russian Far East.

The recent drone or UAV (unmanned aerial vehicle) strike on a refinery in Volgograd was the latest win in a series of targeted strikes.

More significant still, and despite having virtually no navy of its own, the special operations run by Budanov and the Security Service (SBU) have “allowed Ukraine to bottle up the Russian Black Sea Fleet in port…while also destroying multiple air-defense and ammunition sites in Crimea,” according to the US Naval Institute.

Ukraine has pioneered the development of maritime drones to take out several of the Black Sea Fleet’s warships. Aerial drones, missiles and sabotage operations have at least disrupted Russian logistics.

“They need to interdict Russia supply lines in Ukraine and make the Russian public feel the war in their daily lives. If Putin has to move resources to protect his rear, that means less to go on the attack with,” in Schmidt’s view.

Big shoes to fill

Over the past year, a sense of optimism among Ukraine’s allies and frontline commanders alike has given way to a darker mood, as Zelensky has acknowledged. Zaluzhnyi’s gloomy assessment in December was that “There will most likely be no deep and beautiful breakthrough,” a comment that did not endear him to the presidency.

Exhaustion at home, squabbles among allies (the EU versus Hungary) and the paralysis in Congress have added to what is a bleak outlook. Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been buoyed by the possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House.

Filling Zaluzhnyi’s shoes won’t be easy.

Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general who has visited Ukraine and met with senior officials, describes him as a “charismatic and popular military leader who anticipated and prepared in the weeks before the Russian large-scale invasion.”

Syrskyi has his own achievements, especially the defense of Kyiv in the early days and the lightning offensive that recovered swathes of Kharkiv in September 2022.

But the conflict has changed vastly since then.

In the immediate future, the Ukrainian leadership must show unity after what has been a messy changeover. Myhailo Podolyak, an adviser to the office of the President, said that “during a war, political competition, especially at the level of the army, generals, and politicians, doesn’t look so good.”

Instilling a new sense of purpose is all the more important as Ukraine faces a window of vulnerability.

As Matthew Schmidt puts it, Putin “can throw bodies at the enemy, using Russian quantity to overcome Ukrainian quality. It’s a very Stalinist approach to the battlefield, and it’s built into Russian strategic culture.”

In his first public comments since his cancer diagnosis, King Charles III expressed gratitude to the public for their support, saying it brought him “the greatest comfort and encouragement,” according to a statement.

“I would like to express my most heartfelt thanks for the many messages of support and good wishes I have received in recent days. As all those who have been affected by cancer will know, such kind thoughts are the greatest comfort and encouragement,” the statement read.

The King added his diagnosis has strengthened his admiration for organizations helping cancer patients. “My lifelong admiration for their tireless care and dedication is all the greater as a result of my own personal experience,” the statement added.

On Monday, Buckingham Palace announced Charles, 75, had been diagnosed with an undisclosed form of cancer and will step back from public-facing duties while he undergoes treatment.

He was advised by doctors to step away from public-facing duties, but the palace stressed he would continue state duties and paperwork.

On Tuesday afternoon the King was seen leaving the capital by helicopter from Buckingham Palace. A short time before, Prince Harry was seen arriving at Charles’ London home.

Though all the signals coming from the palace have been positive so far, the news is disconcerting. It has been only about 17 months since Charles acceded to the throne following the death of his mother Queen Elizabeth II.

Prince William, Charles’ son and the heir to the throne, and Queen Camilla are expected to take on more public engagements to account for Charles’ absence.

Scattered around a huge crater are the remnants of a life that is gone. Random pieces of clothing and a red makeup bag lie in the mud. Nearby, an English language textbook, bits of broken furniture and a pillow with floral embroidery are jumbled together in one large pile.

The crater sits right in the middle of a residential neighborhood in central Khan Younis, the besieged city in southern Gaza that is the current epicenter of the war between Israel and Hamas.

The city is the hometown of Hamas’ leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, and, according to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), a major Hamas stronghold. It’s also an area to which the Israeli military urged large numbers of civilians to flee in the early days of the war, when northern Gaza was the focus of Israel’s operations.

Looking around, it’s clear that the IDF went into Khan Younis with full force.

According to the IDF, the crater is all that is left of a building similar to the others in the area. The military said it was flattened because it sat on top of an entrance to a vast underground tunnel complex.

The IDF says the complex has been used by Sinwar and other Hamas officials to hide since the war began and some of the hostages kidnapped from Israel by Hamas on October 7 were held there. It’s not clear for how long.

Being accompanied by the IDF meant the journalists were only able to see what it allowed them to see.

Driving from the border fence to the heart of Khan Younis in a military vehicle offered a limited vantage point, but there didn’t seem to be a single building that was untouched by the war.

Many buildings have been completely destroyed and the rubble bulldozed away. The ones that are left standing appear damaged beyond any chance of repair. Some look like the ruins of medieval castles – lone walls with holes where windows used to be.

The scale of the bulldozing is apparent when driving through. In some areas, the roads are lined with banks of rubble that are so high that the military vehicle is completely boxed in, driving below the “street level.”

Heavy price

Early in the war, the Israeli military designated Khan Younis as a safer zone and told residents from northern Gaza to seek shelter there. But as the IDF pushed to the south, the city became its next focus. The IDF says Khan Younis is a Hamas stronghold, adding that the tunnel network underneath civilian buildings in the city was likely where Hamas planned the October 7 attacks from.

Many had nowhere else to go and remained sheltering in medical centers and UN facilities in Khan Younis, including the Nasser Medical Complex, Al Amal Hospital and the Palestine Red Crescent Society headquarters. The UN said thousands are still there, and those facilities have also come under attack, according to Hamas-run Palestinian health officials.

The IDF has repeatedly asserted that it seeks to minimize harm to civilians but has come under pressure from the United States and others to do more.

Standing inside the massive crater in Khan Younis on Sunday, Goldfuss admitted the destruction was significant. But he blamed it on Hamas.

Goldfuss said the tunnel network was used by the Hamas leadership to plan the attacks in which Hamas and Islamic Jihad killed more than 1,200 people and abducted more than 250 others to Gaza. Some of the hostages are still likely being held inside the tunnels, he said.

“I’ve (been) asked many questions about the price that Gaza, Khan Younis pays, the houses… yes, definitely, there is a price that has been paid,” Goldfuss said.

“But look around. We are in an ordinary neighborhood and there is a shaft in every place you can find. There’s a shaft in the kindergarten, there’s a shaft in the school, there’s a shaft in the mosques, there’s a shaft in the supermarket, everywhere you go,” he said.

Even this limited glimpse of Gaza makes it clear that four months of Israeli military operations have completely transformed the enclave.

Seen from above, Gaza used to be green and gray: large swaths of fields alternating with densely populated cities. Now, satellite images show a land that’s mostly brown – bombed out and bulldozed over.