In Africa, demand for beauty and personal care is growing fast but there’s still a gap in what’s available for consumers. Fake cosmetics and skin-whitening products can put consumers at risk, while the global brands that import to the continent are often expensive and not tailored towards Black skin.

Uncover – a startup founded by three women in Kenya in 2020 – wants this to change. It has developed a range of cosmetics that serve the needs of African women, says Sneha Mehta, the company’s CEO and co-founder. With each product tried and tested by focus groups in either Kenya or Nigeria (where the startup is currently active), she says it has a high chance of creating something that’s popular in the African market.

For instance, Uncover’s sunscreen, one of its best-selling products. Jade Oyateru, the startup’s COO and co-founder, explains that while demand for sunscreen is growing among African women, they often complain that it leaves a ghostly white layer on their skin. Uncover responded by formulating a hydrating and fast-absorbing sunscreen that doesn’t leave a white cast, she says.

The African identity carries through to the product’s ingredients, with each one containing a plant grown on the continent. The sunscreen includes cooling aloe vera, while the vitamin C serum uses baobab that helps to reduce redness and the toner has rooibos leaf extract that is said to be anti-ageing.

Currently, Uncover’s products are manufactured in laboratories in South Korea, a world leader in beauty technology. Mehta says that in the next 10 years, she would love to start manufacturing in Africa, but currently the infrastructure is not up to standard and she doesn’t want to compromise on quality.

According to Technavio, a global market research firm, Africa’s beauty and personal care market is expected to grow by more than $5 billion from 2021 to 2026. This potential has attracted global players such as L’Oréal and Rihanna’s Fenty Beauty to sell on the continent, but their products are still predominantly focused on Western markets, says Mehta.

Rubab Abdoola, a consultant at Euromonitor International, which has also carried out research into Africa’s beauty industry, believes that developing skincare products for African consumers will help homegrown brands like Uncover differentiate themselves from global cosmetic giants.

“Although multinational brands still have a strong reputation on the continent and are perceived as being a status symbol in some cases, very often one of the complaints that consumers have is that these companies do not have products that have been developed by taking into account the skin of the African woman and the African climate,” she says.

Pan-African skincare

Urbanization and a young population are some of main drivers behind the booming African beauty market, but there is still a big gap in knowledge, says Uncover’s Oyateru. “Women know that they want to get into skincare and beauty and cosmetics, but they struggle to find the right products and the right information,” she says.

Uncover hopes to help solve this through digital tools on its website and engaging social content. Consumers can book virtual consultations with an in-house aesthetician and there is also a free skin quiz on the site, which can recommend products and nutrition tips based on a few questions.

The quiz provides useful marketing information. “Based on the data we’ve been able to collect, we understand women who have acne-prone skin, we understand women who have dry skin, and the kinds of products they buy,” says Oyateru, adding that the company tailors email newsletters towards skin types.

So far, this method seems to be working. Since 2020, Uncover has amassed a digital audience of more than 170,000 and raised $1.5 million in funding. While it is focusing its attention on Kenya and Nigeria it has also seen demand from other African countries, as well as diaspora communities across the world.

In the next two to five years, the startup will look to expand into other countries such as South Africa and Ghana, says Oyateru, with the aim of becoming a pan-African brand. The long-term mission is to change beauty standards across the continent.

Our products don’t just “address how you look, but (also) how you feel,” says Mehta. “We’re building a brand … to ensure that anyone – whether it’s a woman of color, somebody with acne or somebody with hyperpigmentation – loves the skin they’re in.”

Owning a car in Singapore, one of the world’s most expensive countries, has always been something of a luxury. But costs have now soared to an all time high.

A 10-year Certificate of Entitlement – a license people in the wealthy city state must purchase before they are even allowed to buy a vehicle – now costs a record minimum of $76,000 (104,000 Singapore dollars), more than four times what it did in 2020, according to Land Transport Authority figures.

And that just buys the right to purchase a standard Category A car, with a small to medium-sized engine of 1,600cc or below.

Those who want something bigger or flashier – like an SUV – will have to fork out $106,630 (146,002 Singapore dollars) for the Category B license – up from $102,900 (140,889 Singapore dollars).

Then there are the costs of the vehicle itself to think about.

The quota system was introduced in 1990 to minimize traffic and reduce emissions in a space-starved city state that is home to 5.9 million but boasts an impressive public transport network.

It has put cars out of reach for the average resident of Singapore, where the median monthly household income in 2022 was $7,376 (10,099 Singapore dollars), according to the Department of Statistics.

Wong Hui Min, a mother of two, said she might need to rethink her reliance on her car despite using it mostly for her family.

“I run around a lot, sending my kids to and from school, also for other activities like swimming lessons and tuition. I need my car. Taking taxis or shared rides everywhere is just not convenient for me,” she said.

“A Singaporean family on average has to save up years just to buy a car to help with their needs,” Wong continued, adding, “I don’t know if I can afford to keep my car in the long run.”

For some, the announcement is just the latest financial blow.

Locals say living in Singapore, already ranked the world’s most costly city, has gotten extraordinarily expensive in recent years amid persistent inflation, rising costs of public housing and a slowing economy.

But supporters of the quota system say it has helped spare Singapore the sort of congestion that routinely snarls up other Southeast Asian capitals such as Bangkok, Jakarta and Hanoi.

Those who can’t afford a Certificate of Entitlement can also make use of Singapore’s extensive public transport system they point out.

Failing that, there is the option of getting a motorbike – permits for which are a relative snip at $7,930 (10,856 Singapore dollars).

Parasto Hakim was startled by a knock at the front gates.

She scanned her classroom for a quick headcount – all the girls were already in attendance. It could only be the Taliban.

Her heart pounding, she opened the door to find at least five members of the Afghan militant group demanding to check if she was breaking any rules. She was. This was a secret school, set up to teach girls despite the bans on female education imposed by the Taliban since they retook control of Afghanistan two years ago.

Hakim immediately employed the school’s security protocols. In order to ensure her staff and students’ safety, she had instructed them on how to respond to a Taliban inspection.

“I told the girls to ‘stay silent, keep your eyes down and don’t talk’ even if the Taliban speak to you directly,” Hakim said from an undisclosed location outside Afghanistan.

“So when they (the Taliban) were asking them questions, the girls were just looking at me and I had to reply – I was so scared.”

Hakim says the Taliban tried to bribe the girls into talking, but they remained silent. The militants then started shouting at her and tried intimidating her and another teacher with their questions, she said. But after getting nowhere, they left.

Broken promises

In the summer of 2021, Hakim watched in horror as the Taliban’s tanks rolled into Kabul amid the United States’ chaotic final withdrawal from the country. This time the group vowed a more progressive government than its previous fundamentalist rule between 1996 and 2001.

At a news conference held shortly after the takeover, senior Taliban leadership insisted women and girls would be protected from violence and that education would remain a right for all. Hakim did not believe a word of it, she says.

“They said the exact same words as before, saying they will make (Afghanistan) an environment according to the Sharia law and Islamic values, that they would have girls back at school and women would be able to work and attend university,” Hakim said.

“I thought to myself, they are lying, they won’t change, and they will never ever allow girls to go to school again.”

The Taliban’s promises were soon broken. Girls are not allowed to go to school beyond the 6th grade and are barred from attending university.

Women are being erased from Afghan public life by the all-male government. Last December, all local and international non-governmental organizations (NGOs), including the United Nations, were ordered to stop their female employees from coming to work. This year the Taliban closed all beauty salons across the country, an industry that had employed roughly 60,000 women.

The UN described the Taliban’s draconian restrictions as “discriminatory and misogynistic” in a report published in June this year and said their rule could amount to “gender apartheid” and a “crime against humanity.”

Hakim says she came to the conclusion that continuing to provide girls with an education was the only way to fight back against the Taliban. In the face of history repeating itself, she turned to the example set by Afghan women who defied the odds more than 25 years ago, the last time the Taliban seized control.

“I was asking myself, what was the young generation doing in 1996 when the Taliban were in power? How were they living?” she said.

‘I wanted to scream, but I couldn’t’

Inspired, in part, by a 1996 Christiane Amanpour documentary titled “Battle for Afghanistan,” Hakim decided to create secret schools for a new generation of Afghan girls.

That night, Hakim says she made a series of frantic calls to her contacts, asking for help. Among them was her old friend, Maryam.

“We have to start at least something for girls to gather together and have their own indoor community, in underground spaces to learn and be educated,” Hakim recalled telling Maryam. “I have all the resources you need; I just need you (Maryam) to expand it,” she continued.

“I was working so I could afford to buy books, notepads and everything we need for underground classes.”

Maryam, a trained educator, said that when she heard from Hakim, she was eager to help and wanted to break free of the Taliban’s restrictions.

After the militant group imposed the bans on girls’ education, Maryam says she was trapped at home and felt like a “zombie,” with nothing to do and nowhere to go. The situation led to her suffering from severe anxiety and depression, she said.

“I was in a situation where I wanted to scream, but I couldn’t, it was some of the worst days of my life,” she said.

Maryam says as word of the school got around, more students began to enroll, and she found girls were relieved to attend to escape the pressure of being at home.

“Some girls refuse to stay home on government holidays, even if there’s no teacher at the school, they ask me to let them come in,” Maryam said.

“That shows how desperate they are to escape the stress of sitting at home and thinking about how they are deprived of their rights.”

“The school is like a light for me, it’s like a road where I can see happiness and sunrise at the end of it,” Maryam said.

“It gives me hope that one day regular schools will reopen, and every girl will be free to go back to school and women will be able to go back to their jobs.”

Such hope is sorely needed in Afghanistan. Rates of anxiety, depression and suicide among women are on the rise in Afghanistan since the group’s return to power, according to the UN.

‘It felt like being a prisoner’

One of Maryam’s students, 16-year-old Fatima, was among the many girls and women feeling depressed and anxious while confined to their homes by the Taliban’s prohibitions, their future opportunities tragically curtailed.

“I thought I was being thrown out of society,” Fatima recalled. “It felt like being a prisoner, like a prisoner who is only allowed to eat and drink, but not allowed to do anything else.”

“By sitting uneducated at home, we can’t achieve anything,” she continued. “I didn’t want to be a burden on my family and society, and by getting an education, I want to fulfill my dreams.”

With the support of her family, she discovered the underground classes taught by Maryam and others and found her passion. She loves tailoring and dreams of becoming a famous fashion designer.

“I want to be a woman who is well known amongst people,” she said. “I don’t want to be behind a mask forever, I want to be able to show my real face.”

For Yalda, another student, resuming her education proved to be a lifeline. She had nearly given up on her goal of becoming an engineer.

“It was an escape from the anxiety and depression I felt sitting at home,” the 14-year-old said about going back to school, even in this limited way.

Yalda, Fatima, Maryam and countless others are dreaming of a future without the Taliban and preparing for the day they can step out of the darkness.

“Even if the Taliban stay seven or eight more years, they will eventually go and then we can go to university and continue our education,” Yalda said.

‘Half a human being’

Fawzia Koofi, a women’s rights activist and pioneering Afghan lawmaker under the previous internationally backed administration, remembers living through a similar regime change when the Taliban first came to power.

Speaking from exile, Koofi says women then faced the same restrictions on movement and education that they face today. And back in 1997, she – just like Hakim – started a secret school, but with a few differences.

“It was always a small number of girls, maybe six or seven, I only taught them English and science, not to arouse suspicion (from the Taliban),” Koofi said. “We still had to be very careful and take precautions to prevent them from detecting us.”

Koofi had been accepted into medical school but was confined to her home when the Taliban took power in 1996.

“When you’re outside, the Taliban would look at you as if you are half a human being; telling you to cover your face,” she said. “It was never about what you can contribute to society or how talented you are, it was only about what you wore.”

During her subsequent political career, Koofi made history in 2005 by becoming the first woman elected to Afghanistan’s parliament and then the country’s first female deputy speaker.

After the Taliban returned in 2021, she fled the country, hoping one day to return.

Hope stronger than fear

Back at the secret school, Maryam learns the Taliban are checking neighborhoods for illegal activities and fears they risk being caught. She still feels gut-wrenching nerves at the prospect of a visit from the militants.

“I am scared, I experience fear at every moment,” she said. “But at the same time, I move on with the hope that tomorrow will be better than today.”

“There is a power stronger than fear, that is our hope for the future.”

The future is something Fatima also keeps in mind while making her journey to school every morning.

She says she worries that she could be arrested by the Taliban but, to her, it’s worth the risk.

“If they detain me, I will tell them I just want to be educated,” Fatima said. “I don’t want to sit at home and that is not a crime.”

Ugandan opposition leader Bobi Wine was arrested at Entebbe International Airport near the capital Kampala on Thursday as he returned to the country, according to his party the National Unity Platform.

The National Unity Platform (NUP) said in a social media post that Wine was “violently arrested upon his return to Uganda. We are yet to establish his whereabouts.”

The party released video showing several men grabbing Wine on the tarmac, while one of his associates repeatedly yells, “Where are you taking him?”

The arrest appears to be an attempt to stop a planned procession outside the airport by Wine’s supporters as police issued a warning ahead of his arrival urging them to cancel the march.

Opposition frontrunner

Wine, a popstar-turned-politician whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, was the main opposition frontrunner in the presidential elections in January 2021 and lost to President Yoweri Museveni.

Museveni claimed he had been re-elected for a sixth term despite widespread allegations of fraud and intimidation. Wine rejected the election results, saying he had evidence of fraud and intimidation.

On Thursday, as Wine returned to the country, the National Unity Platform also claimed its headquarters was “under siege.”

His party also said on ‘X,’ formerly known as Twitter, that military choppers have been filmed hovering over Wine’s home in Magere, Uganda, adding that “security operatives have been deployed all round his perimeter fence.”

Wine has faced multiple arrests by Ugandan security forces over the years, particularly in the lead up to Uganda’s controversial elections.

As he prepared to return to Uganda, Wine posted on social media in the early hours of Thursday, saying, “Even though I walk through the valley of the shadow of death, I shall fear no evil for the Lord is with me — Psalms 23:4. I am coming home!”

Uganda Police Force released a statement Wednesday saying they had received information about a planned procession starting at Entebbe International Airport on Thursday, involving “a group of political activists, associated with the National Unity Platform (NUP).”

Police encouraged the organizers to cancel the march to avoid traffic disruption and the risk of attracting “criminal activities, posing risks to bystanders, motorists, passengers, and businesses through acts of theft or other criminal activities.”

“We also advise members of the public who may have been mobilized, to refrain from participating in these illegal activities,” the police statement released Wednesday said.

“The Security Agencies will take all necessary measures to ensure that individuals involved in illegal activities are arrested and brought before the courts of law.”

Marina Ovsyannikova, a Russian journalist who staged a daring protest against the Ukraine war live on state-run television, has been sentenced to eight and a half years in prison in absentia by a Russian court.

Ovsyannikova was found guilty of “public dissemination of knowingly false information about the use of the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation,” according to a statement posted by the press service of Moscow’s district court on Telegram Wednesday.

“This is just fake justice because you know, in Russia, we don’t have independent courts, Putin destroyed all independent courts.”

Ovsyannikova said relatives in Russia have turned against her, even testifying against her. “They gave evidence against me in the court, and I was shocked when I read about it.

“They live in another information reality. If you come to Russia, you start thinking in another way. My Russian relatives are thinking that Russia is surrounded by enemies. They believe Putin and they are thinking I’m the traitor.”

She continued that she was “very worried” about the future of Russia.

“If I return to Russia I will be immediately in jail. I’m very worried about the future of my country and I want to fight for a better future.”

Ovsyannikova escaped house arrest with her daughter last year and is now in Paris, according to her assistant.

The 44-year-old journalist shot to international fame last year when, as an editor at Russia’s state-controlled Channel One television station, she stood behind an anchor and held up a sign that read “No War” during a live broadcast.

Five climate protesters from the activist group Just Stop Oil disrupted a performance of the musical “Les Misérables” at the Sondheim Theatre in London’s West End on Wednesday night.

The demonstrators entered the stage during the performance of the song “Do You Hear The People Sing?” carrying orange banners that read “Just Stop Oil” and “The Show Can’t Go On.”

London’s Metropolitan Police posted on social media that local officers were quickly on the scene and arrested five people.

Just Stop Oil said the protesters locked themselves to the set using flexible bicycle locks at around 8:50 p.m. local time, which theater technicians were unable to remove. The performance was halted, and the theater was evacuated by 9:10 p.m.

In a video Just Stop Oil posted to X, formerly known as Twitter, the audience can be heard booing at the protesters and telling them to get off the stage.

“Like the citizens of Paris in 1832, you have locked your doors, while the young face slaughter on the streets. We will inherit a scorched earth, unfit to live in and our politicians will be long gone,” Just Stop Oil said. “We cannot let this stand. The show cannot go on.”

The activist group has also disrupted several major sporting events in England this year, including The Open Championship, Wimbledon, The Ashes and the World Snooker Championship.

More than 100 people are missing in India’s northeast after heavy rain caused a glacial lake to burst, leading to flash floods which ripped through the Himalayan state of Sikkim Wednesday, killing at least 14 and washing away roads and bridges, according to the state government.

A “sudden cloudburst” over Lhonak Lake, in the northern part of the state, sent fast-moving torrents of water surging down the Teesta River in Sikkim’s Lachen valley, raising water levels 15-20 feet higher than normal, the Indian Army said in a statement. A cloudburst is a very sudden and destructive rainstorm.

Chungthang Dam, also known as the Teesta 3 dam and part of a major hydropower project in the state, was “washed away,” according to a statement issued by the National Disaster Management Authority on Wednesday night.

Drinking water supplies and sewage treatment plants have been “totally damaged” across affected districts, according to the state government.

Video from the north of the state shows a muddy deluge rapidly overflowing the river, and flooded houses caked in dirt and debris, while images show search teams using excavators to uncover army vehicles buried deep in the mud.

Rescue and restorations operations are underway with both state and national disaster personnel involved, the government said.

Known as the rooftop of the world, the ecologically-sensitive Himalayan region is prone to flash floods and landslides, and flooding is not unusual in Sikkim.

But scientists are clear that extreme weather is becoming more frequent and more intense as the human-caused climate crisis accelerates.

As search efforts continued Wednesday, the Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) released dramatic images showing the volume of water which had been released from Lhonak Lake following the cloudburst.

Lhonak Lake is a large glacial bullet-shaped water body that sits at the foot of a melting glacier.

An analysis of the images shows more than 60% of the water held in the lake drained out after the extreme rainstorm triggered a glacial lake outburst. This phenomenon happens when a glacial lake rises too high or the surrounding land or ice gives way and the lake bursts, sending water and debris rushing down mountains.

One satellite image shows the lake holding about 167.4 hectares of water on September 28, while another dated October 4 shows the lake reduced by more than half – holding approximately 60.3 hectares of water in it.

“It is observed that lake is burst and about 105 hectares area has been drained out … which might have created a flash flood downstream (in the Teesta River),” ISRO said in text accompanying the images.

Scientists have long studied Lhonak Lake, identifying it as one of the fastest swelling glacial lakes in the region with a high risk for a potential glacial outburst, according to multiple studies.

In recent years, the state’s Disaster Management Authority led several expeditions to the site, concluding that a glacial lake outburst would “cause huge devastation downstream” and that “loss of life and property” were likely. Pipelines were installed at the lake to siphon off the water as a short-term solution.

And last May, the state government held a consultation workshop on such a risk, with the director of Sikkim’s Department of Science and Technology highlighting the “urgent need for an early warning system for these glacial lakes in Sikkim.”

Search efforts hampered by heavy rain

The Sikkim city of Pakyong was the worst affected with seven people killed in the floods and 59 people missing, the Sikkim government said.

Among those unaccounted for are dozens of members of the Indian Army. A “massive” search and rescue operation to find the missing soldiers has been launched but efforts were hampered by “incessant rains” and flooding that had cut off roads and washed-out bridges, the army said.

On Wednesday evening, one soldier was rescued and is in a stable condition but 22 others remain missing, according to the army.

At least 11 bridges collapsed in the flooding, impeding rescue efforts and cutting off remote areas, the government said.

In the state capital and largest city Gangtok, three deaths were reported and 22 people missing, it added.

More than 2,000 people have been evacuated and relief camps have been set up across the state to help more than 22,000 people affected by the flash floods.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast heavy rainfall to continue across the country’s east and northeast, including Sikkim, for the next two days.

Sikkim’s chief minister Prem Singh Tamang said in a post on X, formerly Twitter, that emergency services have been mobilized to the affected areas, and he has “visited Singtam to assess the damages and engage with the local community.” Singtam is a town affected by the flooding about 30 kilometers (18 miles) from Gangtok.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi called the situation an “unfortunate natural calamity” and offered “all possible support in addressing the challenge.”

“I pray for the safety and well-being of all those affected,” he wrote on X.

Glacial outbursts will affect millions

The Himalayan region is highly vulnerable to the climate crisis.

Himalayan glaciers feed into rivers that provide freshwater to two billion people and many communities depend on the glacial waters to irrigate their crops.

But a recent report warned the glaciers could lose up to 80% of their ice by 2100 as temperatures rise, heightening the likelihood of floods, landslides, avalanches and also drought.

As glaciers around the world melt at an alarming rate, about 15 million people who live near glacial lakes are at risk from catastrophic glacial lake outbursts, with more than half concentrated in just four countries – India, Pakistan, Peru and China – according to a study earlier this year.

The ensuing floods happen with little to no warning and previous glacial lake outbursts have killed thousands of people and destroyed property and critical infrastructure.

A 2020 study of the Teesta River basin by scientists from the Indian Institute of Technology Guwahati, found a increase in rainfall and temperatures this century and that Sikkim’s many glacial lakes are expanding due to glacier and snow melt as temperatures rise.

The researchers warned that heavy rainfall events can cause the sudden expansion of lakes, risking glacial outburst floods, and it was “critical” that state disaster management departments are properly equipped to respond to such disasters and that policy makers implement climate change adaptation strategies.

In 2021, a Himalayan glacier collapsed in Uttarakhand, sending an avalanche of water, dust and rocks down a mountain gorge, and crashing though two hydroelectric projects, killing at least 38 people.

In India’s north, communities have warned for decades about unregulated commercial development, deforestation and back-to-back dam building in the fragile region, increasing the risk of disasters, flooding and landslides.

As the world rapidly urbanizes, the amount of building in flood-prone areas is soaring, according to new research, sparking concerns about people’s vulnerability to disasters as the climate crisis escalates.

Between 1985 and 2015, the number of settlements – from small villages to mega-cities – with the highest flood hazard exposure increased by 122%, according to the study published in the journal Nature on Wednesday.

Researchers analyzed global flood hazard datasets and annual settlement footprint data covering the three decades between 1985 and 2015 to understand the populations most affected by flood risk.

They found over this period, as the world’s settlements grew by 85%, urbanization happened much more rapidly in high-hazard flood zones than in areas with low flood risk.

In 2015, more than 11% of built-up areas globally faced high or very high flood risk, meaning areas at risk of flooding depths of at least 50 cm (17 inches) during 1-in-100-year flooding events, according to the report.

Exposure to all types of flooding is increasing, but vulnerability to coastal flooding is increasing at the fastest pace, the report found.

The researchers concluded that flood risks are substantial across all regions of the world and all income groups, but some face higher risks than others. Exposure is highest in East Asia and the Pacific region, and lowest in North America and sub-Saharan Africa, according to the report.

Upper-middle income countries had the largest proportion of new human settlements in the highest flood risk zones, the report found. These results were driven by China, which has experienced very swift urbanization, and is home to nearly half of all new settlements built in high flood hazard areas between 1985 and 2015.

While higher income countries mostly saw relatively slow growth in flood-prone zones over the 30 year period, many – including the US, Japan and the Netherlands – already had many settlements in areas at high risk of flooding before 1985 and have had to spend large amounts to protect them, according to the report.

Why choose to build in flood zones?

There are many reasons why the amount of building on land vulnerable to flooding is shooting up, but scarcity is a major driver.

Land that is safer from floods has largely been built on already, meaning new development is disproportionately happening in floodplains and other areas that would have previously been avoided.

In Vietnam, for example, where around one-third of coastal land is built on, new developments are being forced into hazardous land, the report found.

Sometimes the economic opportunities are assumed to outweigh the risk of disaster, such as for major port cities, beachfront communities or tourist areas. Other reasons include a lack of flood data, poor urban planning or weak regulation.

Southwest Florida, at risk from increasingly severe hurricanes, has seen populations explode due to its sunny weather and relative cheapness. That growth came as the state loosened regulations around building in high-risk and low-lying areas.

The report recommended a number of actions for policymakers and planners, including investment in disaster preparedness, early warning systems and evacuation plans in areas where flood risk is already high, as well as revising land use plans and building codes in areas where the risk is growing.

Robert Nicholls, professor of climate adaptation at the University of East Anglia who was not involved in the study, said the report’s methodology was robust and its findings were “new but not surprising.”

“This is concerning as development patterns are enhancing risk without climate change – climate change will further exacerbate these risks in the future.”

British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak got up to speak from a podium bearing the words “Long-Term Decisions for a Brighter Future” – the slogan for this year’s Conservative Party conference. But over the past three days on the fringes of the governing party’s annual meeting, members have been planning their own long-term future – and in some cases for one that doesn’t involve him.

This year’s gathering, in Manchester, a historic city that was formerly the industrial powerhouse of northern England, held extra significance as it is likely the last to take place before the next general election. It was a golden opportunity for Sunak to unite his party after the battering his party’s credibility took from his two immediate predecessors – the scandal-hit era of Boris Johnson and the economic tumult of Liz Truss.  

However, despite the fact Sunak – who has been in office for less than a year – has exceeded expectations by steadying the ship and restoring some calm to British politics, many members of his own party members spent this week settling old scores and resigning themselves to defeat.

Sunak is seeking a historic fifth successive term for the Conservative Party, which has been in power since 2010 – first in coalition and from 2015 alone. 

Those 13 years have been some of the most consequential in modern British politics. From Brexit to the Covid-19 pandemic, Johnson’s transgressions and Truss’s turmoil, Sunak inherited an unpopular mess of a party that, according to opinion polls, looks doomed.  

Nevertheless, Sunak and his team are optimistic that they can pull the party together before the next election, which must take place by January 2025. And their strategy for achieving this aim appears to involve shifting further to the right, with policies and rhetoric that are tailor-made for Conservative members rather than the broader public.

Curious optics

One of the clearest signs this week that Sunak feels the need to appeal to the right-wing of his base was the presence at the conference of Nigel Farage, one of Britain’s most famous Brexiteers and perma-scourge of the Conservatives.  

It was Farage, as then-leader of the Euroskeptic UK Independence Party, who drove the political narrative that eventually forced the Conservatives to hold a referendum on leaving the European Union in 2016. While the party establishment loathes Farage, Conservative members greeted him with open arms and requests for selfies after he arrived on Monday afternoon. In many ways, he was the star of the show here in Manchester. 

It’s instructive, then, to see Sunak’s strategy through that lens. 

Last week, the PM announced a controversial U-turn on green policies, including a delay on a plan to boost the number of electric cars on Britain’s roads.   He has criticized the opposition Labour Party for endorsing lower speed limits for drivers. Many of his Cabinet ministers have hinted at the prospect of leaving the European Convention on Human Rights, which they regard as hindering efforts to curb immigration to the UK, particularly by refugees. 

The health minister said transgender patients could be banned from hospital wards that corresponded to their lived gender. Business Secretary Kemi Badenoch railed against trans rights activists, repeating an attack line that Labour MPs don’t “know what a woman is.” 

And in his closing speech, Sunak scrapped an expensive, high-speed rail project in the north of England, which he claimed would save taxpayers £36 billion – which, he said, would be reinvested instead in “hundreds of new transport projects” in the North and Midlands, both rail and road.   

The optics of this were curious, as the scrapped project, known as HS2, would have provided Manchester, the conference’s host city, with faster links to London and the wider region with better rail capacity and connections.

Most of this is broadly attractive to Conservative members and it would be reasonable to assume that it would give them a reason to rally behind Sunak.  

But there was not much sign of unity this week. Quite the opposite, in fact. The Conservative Party has always been a broad church, with competing factions jostling for supremacy. But these factions appear more splintered than ever.

Walking around the conference centre, it was striking to see groups of Conservatives who in various ways represented every iteration of the party since 2010. And quite a lot of those factions sincerely dislike one another and have serious disdain for each other’s vision for the future of the party.

True Conservative talisman?

The most high-profile rebellion came from Sunak’s immediate predecessor, Truss, who spoke at a rally at the same time as Jeremy Hunt, Sunak’s finance minister, gave his conference speech on the main stage.  

Truss, along with others on the libertarian right, called for a complete rethink of the tax system and size of the state. Her speech was made almost a year to the day that her own tax-cutting plans caused markets to crash and sank the pound to its worst low ever against the dollar. 

You might assume that less than 12 months since her disastrous premiership came to an end, the public might not be that interested in Truss’s thoughts. But Conservative Party members are rather different to the general public. In stark contrast to Hunt’s speech taking place on the main stage, Truss’s rally – held in a side room of a hotel next to the main conference center – was standing-room only.

But other factions within the party believe the true Conservative talisman to be another former PM: Boris Johnson.

Superficially, the Johnsonites are on the same wing of the party as Truss and her acolytes. However, the most passionate of his supporters are the so-called “red wall” voters: People typically from the north of England from poorer backgrounds who supported Brexit and, in many cases, voted Conservative for the first time because of Johnson. (The red-wall name is derived from the color most associated with the opposition Labour Party, which historically held sway in these areas.)

Unfortunately for Sunak, many of these members didn’t have a much better view of him. While broadly they supported lots of his recent announcements – they simply don’t believe he is serious about them.  

“He’s out-of-touch. He is a liberal. He won’t do it properly,” said one of the red-wall members.   

On the opposite wing of the party, the moderates are uncomfortable with some of the rhetoric they are hearing from cabinet ministers and the prime minister on issues like migration and LGBT+ rights – especially Suella Braverman, the home secretary, whose hardline stance worries even some on the right of the Conservative Party – including within the cabinet.

‘We really can win this thing’

The most optimistic group of Conservatives currently are those within Sunak’s orbit. This group sincerely believes that, despite the polls,  Sunak stands a very decent chance of remaining prime minister after the next election. There is some merit to this view: since Sunak’s green U-turn he has seen an improvement in his poll numbers and his personal approval ratings are better than those of anyone else in his party, according to the pollster YouGov. 

The frustration for Sunak’s allies is that despite their optimism, so many of the party’s other factions have already decided that the next election is lost, and are digging into their respective trenches before the post-election blame game starts.

Adding to the sense of inevitable loss was the open and obvious debate about the future of the party beyond Sunak. Events like the one Truss attended were, in the eyes of many members, the starting gun for a battle over the party’s soul once in opposition.  

Indeed, many of the frontrunners to succeed Sunak should he lose – including members of his own cabinet – spoke at an unusually high number of cosy, “in-conversation” style events with friendly hosts, playing for the applause of party members in the audience. 

Despite all of this, Sunak could reasonably call this year’s conference a success, if you compare it to other conferences in recent years. He has improved the party’s prospects since taking office and there wasn’t the same sense of doom that lingered over last year’s meeting. 

It’s more that this is a party that feels tired, confused and is at times acting desperately with its hotchpotch of red-meat policies and populist rhetoric. It might not be fair and it might not even be accurate, but the general sense of deflation was more potent than that of optimism. 

Pakistan, home to more than 1.7 million people who have fled violence in neighboring Afghanistan, is launching a mass deportation of “illegal immigrants,” authorities said Tuesday.

In a news conference, caretaker Interior Minister Sarfraz Bugti announced a November 1 deadline for those residing in the country illegally to leave, after which “all law enforcement agencies would deport them,” he said.

As of the end of 2022, Pakistan hosted more than 1.3 million registered Afghan refugees and 427,000 people in “refugee-like situations” from Afghanistan, according to the United Nations’ refugee agency.

But their presence in Pakistan has long been controversial, with police crackdowns and threats of deportation in previous years. Hundreds of Afghans have already been deported from Pakistan this year, according to volunteer groups, citing local records.

At the news conference Tuesday, Bugti claimed that Afghan nationals carried out 14 of the 24 major terrorist attacks that have taken place in Pakistan this year.

“There are attacks on us from Afghanistan and Afghan nationals are involved in those attacks. We have evidence present for that,” he added.

Businesses and properties of “illegal aliens will be confiscated, and illegal business operators and their facilitators will be prosecuted” in the crackdown, Bugti said.

“Strict legal action will be taken against any Pakistani citizen or company providing accommodation or facilities to illegal aliens” residing in Pakistan after the deadline, he added.

The decision was made by the National Apex Committee, which met earlier on Tuesday. A task force has also been formed to “seize people with fake identity cards and illegal properties built on their fake documents,” while the country’s national database and registration body has been ordered to cancel any “fake identity cards” and confirm any cases with DNA testing, authorities said.

Pakistan is home to one of the world’s largest refugee populations – the vast majority of them from Afghanistan. Given the two countries’ shared border and deep cultural ties, their fates have always been linked – with years of conflict and humanitarian crises in Afghanistan inevitably spilling into Pakistan.

Many Afghans fled the Soviet invasion of their country in 1979, settling in Pakistan during the biggest refugee crisis in the world at the time. Another wave took place in 2021 after the Taliban retook Kabul, with thousands of Afghans crossing the Pakistan border, often with incomplete paperwork while waiting for visas to third countries, such as the United States.

“Many Afghans living in fear of persecution by the Taliban have fled to Pakistan, where they have been subjected to waves of arbitrary detentions, arrests, and the threat of deportation,” Nonprofit organization Amnesty International said in a statement Monday.

“It is deeply concerning that the situation of Afghan refugees in Pakistan is not receiving due international attention.”

Advocacy group Refugees International said it was “especially concerned” for the fate of Afghans who fled their country in 2021 due to fear of the Taliban.

“Pakistan has a long history of generously hosting their Afghan neighbors when they have been unsafe. Now is not the time to stop,” it said.