The smell of burning wood and plastic hits us as we step out of the van. Smoke from campfires meets the cloud of dirt kicked up by our tires, stinging our eyes and leaving a scratch in our throats. In the near distance, you can hear children splashing and playing in the Suchiate River, which separates Mexico – where we are – from Guatemala.

We head toward the murky brown water, walking under tall, thick trees shielding us from the day’s brutal sun. We’re mindful of where we step, dodging scraps of cardboard used for beds and ducking under clothes hanging out to dry, careful not to intrude on someone’s personal space or modest belongings. It strangely feels more like a community rooted here for centuries, rather than a migrants’ campground.

And after the assault on the senses, comes the assault on the mind and the heart.

Stories abound from the people here, most originally from Venezuela, of why they left their homes and what they’ve gone through so far on their journeys to Ciudad Hidalgo. The adults sometimes become emotional but more shocking is the calm, matter-of-fact, narration from the children.

They had seen many dead people in the treacherous muddy jungle passage of the Darién Gap from Colombia to Panama, a group of young cousins tells me.

“I saw a woman, she had yellow hair and this part of her face was covered in blood,” says 9-year-old Mathias, gesturing to his right cheek.

I catch myself mid-interpretation from Spanish to English, realizing I am talking to children between the ages of 6 and 12 as they describe in vivid detail what they’ve experienced along the way.

“You get desperate in the jungle, you think you’re going to die in there,” Mathias says.

His 12-year-old cousin Sofia adds: “We ran out of food. We were starving for a night. … We all lost weight.” Her little brother Joandry lifts his shirt to show us his belly, as if to corroborate his sister and cousin’s accounts.

“It was hell,” Sofia says. “And every time you saw the end of the road, there was more to walk and we saw some dead people … lying on the ground.”

“It was hell,” 6-year-old Joandry corroborates again, looking at me with eyes that have seen far more than most adults.

Bonded by experience, where they’ve been and their hopes

The trauma from the trek they’ve endured already, mixed with the shared dreams of making it to the United States, bond many of the people on the banks of the Suchiate, especially the kids.

Sofia was the first to get our attention as she asks confidently and curiously what we’re doing here. We tell her we’re journalists. Her attention shifts to the water, and she excitedly points out to the river and one of the many rafts. “That’s my dad!” she tells us proudly. “He’s helping others come across.”

A few feet away, sitting on the ground and leaning up against a tree is Sofia’s mom, Susana. She’s holding her 2-year-old son as Sofia’s other younger siblings play close by. At first, Susana is more reserved – nodding for Sofia to answer our questions instead of her. But slowly she starts to open up, seemingly wanting to share their story.

Still in conversation with Sofia and Susana, I sit down on a concrete step under an open-air structure used for storing goods that are illegally moved across the river from Mexico to Guatemala. Sofia sits next to me as we look out to the armada of rafts going back and forth, with dozens more chained up and ready to deploy. They’re made of two large black inner tubes, tied together with rope and planks of wood across them to support goods and people.

Sofia’s dad, Jeandry, is one of the men who – like a gondolier on the canals of Venice – stands on the back with a long piece of wood steering the raft. At any given time, you can see across the river to Guatemala as up to a couple dozen migrants pile onboard and make the roughly 8-minute trip, illegally crossing into Mexico. Police are stationed a few hundred feet away, and the official crossing is within eyesight down river, but there’s no enforcement along the border just a near-constant free flow back and forth.

Sofia and her family say they took one of the rafts five days earlier. They’ve stayed on the riverbank instead of immediately continuing north to save up money, with Sofia’s dad working the rafts and the family asking for donations in the nearby town.

As I pull out a microphone, and my team starts recording with their cameras, Sofia’s siblings, aunt, uncle and cousins – who made the journey with them – crowd around. Little Joandry doesn’t want to miss out and hurries over with shampoo still in his hair, cackling as his older sister tries to clean it out.

“We’re thinking about Philadelphia [or] Chicago,” Sofia tells me, when I ask where in the US they’d like to go. Her 9-year-old cousin, Mathias, chimes in, “I’m thinking about New York or Florida.” Their parents look on, smiling as they’d told me moments earlier they had no idea where they’d end up; they just want to claim asylum and enter the US legally.

The kids smile too as they talk about their dreams to go to school. Sofia and Mathias want to be doctors, though Mathias might also want to be a lawyer, he tells me. When I ask what it’s been like traveling as a family, their faces turn expressionless for a moment. Solemn blank stares.

A difference in tone

The families have been on the road for nearly two months, having left Colombia, where they lived for the past six years.

“We had to leave,” Sofia says. “We couldn’t stay poor there because every day we ate the same thing. There were times when we couldn’t eat at all because there was no money.”

Before Colombia, the families fled Venezuela, to get away from the corruption and crime. “And a bad economy,” Joandry explains, taking the microphone out of my hand as if taking over the interview.

As we talk and film, my team and I recognize a subtle difference in the migrants’ tone here in southern Mexico compared with those who we’ve met on multiple trips to cities bordering the US hundreds of miles farther north.

For everything they’ve been through, those in the south have yet to experience the extortion and threats from cartel-backed smugglers or the treacherous rides on top of freight trains. Looking at the parents’ eyes, I can sense they have heard murmurs of what’s ahead. Loved ones and friends have gone ahead of them and warned of the horrors.

But they manage to strike a hopeful tone. “It’s better than what’s behind us,” Mathias’ mom tells us. “We don’t go backwards; we move forward with God’s blessings.”

As we thank the children and their parents for their time, Sofia and Mathias excitedly ask if we want to swim with them. “I have to stay dry to work,” I tell them. “OK!” they shout, sprinting toward the water like any other boisterous children, their trauma buried, for now. Each one echoes the other as we part: “Nos vemos! See ya later!”

Massive crowds descended on the Polish capital of Warsaw on Sunday for a rally organized by the country’s opposition party ahead of elections that could determine Poland’s future in Europe later this month.

Organizers said that 1 million people attended the “March of a Million Hearts,” though Polish press agency PAP quoted local police saying about 100,000 people participated.

Leaders of the opposition Civic Platform (PO) party are hoping to use Sunday’s gathering to build momentum ahead of the October 15 vote and regain political control from the conservative Law and Justice (PiS) party that has ruled Poland since 2015.

Donald Tusk, the former European Council president now leading the PO, told crowds that the size of Sunday’s gathering showed that there was nothing that could stop the growing liberal political movement.

“This giant has awakened,” he said. “This change is inevitable, for the better.”

The upcoming election pits two parties with very different policy prescriptions for Poland’s future: the more nationalist, inward-looking, anti-immigration vision of the PiS versus the liberal, pro-Europe government being pitched by Tusk’s PO.

Tusk has alleged that the PiS is positioning Poland to leave the European Union, a charge which it denies.

But Poland’s conservative government has found itself repeatedly at odds with the EU in recent years.

That conflict reached fever pitch two years ago when Poland’s high court deemed EU rules were subordinate to Polish law, defying the primacy of EU law – a principle has bound together the union for decades.

The PiS has also shifted right culturally, hoping to woo conservative voters by promoting a nationalist Catholic image. That has seen the party take aim at LGBTQ groups. The country’s anti-abortion laws are the strictest in Europe.

Warsaw Mayor Rafal Trzaskowski said that he hoped that Sunday’s event was the beginning of a march “toward a completely different Poland.”

“Millions have woken up,” Trzaskowski said. “We are moving full of courage and determination towards the future, towards a Poland that is tolerant, diverse, European and smiling.”

At least 13 people have been killed in Spain’s deadliest nightclub fire in decades, with fears the toll could rise further as emergency services search for more victims.

The cause of the blaze, which broke out early on Sunday at the Teatre venue in the southeastern city of Murcia, is not yet known.

Four others were injured: two women, aged 22 and 25, and two men, aged 41 and 45, who were all taken to the hospital due to smoke inhalation, the Murcia emergency services website said.

Survivors gathered outside the nightclub described the scene to journalists as emergency services carried out their work.

“I think we left (the club) 30 seconds – 1 minute before the alarms went off and all the lights went out the screams saying there was a fire. I was at place at that time where I could get out, but five family members and two friends are missing,” an unidentified survivor told Reuters.

“We don’t know anything, we are waiting for news to see whether some of our family members have come out alive,” said another man at the scene.

Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez sent his condolences.

“My love and solidarity with the victims and families of the tragic fire that occurred this morning in a nightclub in Murcia. I have just conveyed to the president of the Murcia region all our support and collaboration,” Sanchez posted on the social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

At the time of the incident, emergency services were dispatched, with local firefighters calling in helicopter help to tackle the blaze.

“The General Director of Security and Emergencies, Ricardo Villalba, is on-site coordinating with the Murcia City Council the necessary means to manage this tragedy,” the emergency services said.

“The Vice President and Minister of the Interior, Emergencies and Territorial Planning, Jose Ángel Antelo, is expected to arrive at the site,” they added.

The fire in Murcia marks the deadliest nightclub fire in Spain in 33 years. A blaze in 1990 at a nightclub in northeastern Zaragoza left 43 dead.

In December 1983 81 people were killed in a nightclub blaze in Madrid, with smoke, a failure in the lighting system and a closed emergency door all contributing to the disaster.

Three days of mourning have been declared in the city of Murcia for “those who died in the fire that occurred at the Teatre de Atalayas nightclub”, Murcia mayor José Ballesta said on X.

An information area for relatives of the victims was set up in the nearby Palacio de los Deportes, where a team of psychologists will be tasked to provide assistance.

At least 10 Cuban migrants died and 17 others were injured when the truck they were traveling in overturned in southern Mexico on Sunday, Mexican authorities say.

The truck was “irregularly” transporting 27 Cuban nationals on the Pijijiapan-Tonalá highway in the southern state of Chiapas when the accident occurred, Mexico’s National Migration Institute (INM) said in a statement.

Officials said initial reports suggested the driver had been speeding and lost control of the unit, fleeing the scene after it overturned.

The 10 victims were female and included a minor, authorities said. All the injured are being treated in hospital.

“The INM will establish communication with the consular authorities to initiate the administrative process for the repatriation of the bodies to their country of origin and is aware of the evolution of the health status of those seriously injured,” the statement said.

Migrants from Central America and the Caribbean sometimes travel through Mexico in trucks and trailers in the hope of reaching the United States.

In 2021, 55 people were killed and more than 100 injured when a truck also believed to be carrying migrants overturned in Chiapas state, which borders Guatemala.

At least one person was killed and two others were injured in a bombing attack outside Turkey’s Interior Ministry building in Ankara on Sunday.

The ministry said in a Sunday statement that two attackers murdered a civilian and stole his vehicle in the country’s capital ahead of the opening of parliament. Two police officers reportedly received non-life-threatening injuries.

The attackers arrived in a light commercial vehicle in front of the building’s entrance at about 9:30 a.m. local time, Yerlikaya. One assailant blew himself up and the other was “neutralized.”

Investigators found four different types of guns, three hand grenades, one rocket launcher, and C-4 explosives at the scene.

The ministry confirmed at least one of the two attackers is a member of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, known as the PKK. The second attacker has yet to be identified.

The PKK, a Kurdish militant group classified as a terrorist organization by Turkey, the United States, and Europe, issued a statement earlier claiming responsibility for the bomb, pro-PKK newsgroup Firat News Agency reported. The group said the attack was “carried out according to plan and without any obstacles.”

Just hours after the fatal explosion, Turkey destroyed twenty PKK targets in northern Iraq, according to a statement released by the country’s National Defense Ministry.

Turkish warplanes carried out airstrikes in the Metina, Hakurk, Kandil, and Gara regions at 9 p.m. local time, destroying caves, bunkers, shelters and warehouses used by the PKK, the defense ministry wrote.

According to Firat News Agency, a PKK unit dubbed the “Brigade of Immortals” explicitly targeted the opening of the parliament and the ministry building, saying it is considered “a massacre and torture center.”

“Every person should know that the members of the Brigade of Immortals could have achieved a very different result with only a small change in their timing if they had wanted to,” the statement attributed to PKK reads.

In the statement, the PKK’s People’s Defense Center Headquarters Command justified the attack due to what it called the “disregard of human rights, the inhuman practice and policy of isolation in Turkish and Kurdish jails, the use of chemical weapons against KPP guerrilla forces, ecocide in Kurdistan, and the oppression of the Kurdish people.”

Security footage of the incident obtained by Reuters shows a vehicle slowing down on the street near the building’s gated entrance.

The vehicle comes to a stop then the driver’s side door slowly opens. One individual exits as a second emerges from the other side of the car. The second person approaches the entrance in a tactical stance, though it’s unclear if the attacker is holding a firearm, while the first hides behind the car. The assailant in motion hurries quickly past what appears to be a guard tower. A large explosion then strikes.

After, through the smoke, the contours of what appears to be the first attacker move toward the gate before the 40-second clip ends.

A bomb found on the body of the neutralized terrorist was set off after the attack in a controlled explosion, one of at least two that could be heard on television footage.

Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc said that an investigation has been launched into the incident.

“These attacks will in no way hinder Turkey’s fight against terrorism,” Tunc said on X. “Our fight against terrorism will continue even more determinedly.”

The bombing took place just hours before lawmakers were set to return to work after the summer break at 2 p.m.

In his address to lawmakers, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan vowed that Turkey would continue its fight against terrorism “until the last terrorist is eliminated domestically and abroad” following Sunday’s attack.

“The vile people who took aim at the peace and security of our citizens did not reach their goal and they never will,” he said.

The PKK has been waging an insurgency against Ankara for four decades.

In recent years, Turkey has carried out a steady stream of operations against the group domestically as well as cross-border operations into Syria, where a PKK-affiliated Kurdish group controls large swaths of territory.

In November 2022, Ankara blamed the PKK for a bomb attack on a central pedestrian boulevard in Istanbul which killed six and injured dozens.

Terror attacks in Turkey were tragically common in the mid to late 2010s, when the insecurity from war-torn Syria crept north above the two countries’ shared border.

Ankara saw two attacks by Kurdish assailants in 2016, one which targeted military personnel on a bus and another at a bus stop.

Twin bombings in 2015 that targeted a peace rally near the capital’s main train station claimed the lives of nearly 100 people.

Erdogan said Sunday’s attack marked the “final flutters of terrorism” in the country in his speech to parliament.

Carried by a wave of shouting supporters and wielding a chainsaw at the open sky, the man of the hour approached center stage.

He looked around and angrily screamed “Chainsaw! Chainsaw!” – a war cry quickly picked up by his supporters calling for carnage.

All around him, shouts, chants, and traffic horns blasting loud.

This was not a WWE wrestling show, but the 2023 presidential race in Argentina where political outsider Javier Milei is the leading candidate. His repeated appearances wielding a chainsaw at campaign stops – as he did at the rally described above in the seaside city of Mar del Plata on September 12 – symbolize promises to drastically cut government expenses, eliminate public subsidies and “break up with the status quo.”

Milei, an economist and former political commentator, surprised Argentina’s political scene in August, when he won the largest share of a coalition primary vote that most observers consider indicative of the upcoming presidential contest, set for October 22.

Argentine politics have largely been dominated by the same groups for the past 20 years, and Milei represents a new outside force that is aggressively targeting traditional powerbrokers on both sides of the aisle. It’s a familiar tale that draws comparisons to the rise of other far-right stars like former US President Donald Trump and former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro.

Like Bolsonaro, Milei rose to fame at a time of great economic crisis in his country – Argentina’s yearly inflation reached 124% in August, its highest level in over 32 years, and food prices in particular grew 15% from the previous month, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses INDEC. And like Trump, Milei has been able to channel a sentiment of anger towards a political class perceived as distant and ineffective.

To the Trumpian slogan, ‘Drain the swamp’, Milei’s supporters shout “¡¡Qué se vayan todos!!” which translates as “May they all leave!” – an expression of fury at politicians from both sides of the spectrum. Argentina’s left is currently in government, following rule by the right from 2015 to 2019.

Milei is presenting himself as the candidate of renewal – an offer that clearly struck a chord with people in the primary vote. The question now is whether his strategy will hold through the national vote next month.

“I’ll vote for Milei because I think he’ll change things,” says Eduardo Murchio, a taxi driver in Argentina’s capital Buenos Aires. “I’m tired of the same faces, of the same governors […], I am 40 years old and it’s always the same story,” he told Reuters.

What a Milei presidency might look like

Milei, who is unmarried and lives with five English mastiffs – one of them named after neoliberal economist Milton Friedman – describes himself as a libertarian and “anarcho-capitalist.” He has promised to slash public subsidies and get rid of the ministries of culture; education; environment; and women, gender, and diversity; among several others.

Perhaps Milei’s most significant proposal is to dollarize Argentina, a radical plan that he claims is the ultimate solution to the country’s chronic inflation troubles. Replacing the peso with the US dollar and giving up on a sovereign monetary policy would hardly be a new approach in Latin America, where Ecuador, El Salvador and Panama all use the US dollar – but it is untested in a country as big as Argentina.

But Milei’s skill as a macroeconomic strategist is also untested; he worked as financial analyst in the private sector before entering politics.

“To open the economy without any protection barrier has never happened in Argentina,” said Javier Marcus, a professor of finance at the Rosario National University in Buenos Aires. While other countries have effectively stabilized prices thanks to dollarization, giving up monetary policy would mean effectively giving up Argentina’s ability to influence its own country’s finances.

Marcus points out that dollarizing would further expose Argentina to foreign economic troubles – a significant break with other populist leaders. “That’s a big difference because both Trump and Bolsonaro always talk of putting their country first and supporting local manufacturing,” he says. “But if you look at Milei, you can see he always talk of opening Argentina towards the world.”

Much less palatable for many, however, is Milei’s tendency toward extreme personal attacks, often seen as sexist. Once in 2018, responding to a question about economic strategies by local journalist Teresa Fria, Milei shouted: “It’s not that I am a totalitarian. I’m just saying that you are a she-donkey, and you talk of things you don’t know. You just talked like a donkey and what I am doing now is un-donkeying you!”

He has also taken political risks with his passion for targeting Pope Francis, even referring to the Pope as “an envoy of Satan” in November 2020 – though Milei has in recent months distanced himself from those views. Argentina remains a profoundly Catholic country with over 60% of the population identifying as Roman Catholic, according to the CIA fact book.

Facing off with Patricia Bullrich and Sergio Massa

But despite his headline-grabbing rhetoric and shock success in the primary, Milei’s run for president is far from a done deal. Argentinian presidents are elected in a two-round system that favors coalition-building and is designed to keep extremism to the sides.

Recent polls show the vote split three ways with Milei slightly ahead of traditional center-right aspirant Patricia Bullrich and leftist Sergio Massa, the current economic minister.

Massa, seen as Milei’s top rival, has been trying to position himself as a more pragmatic voice from the left compared to the current government coalition. He has worked to distance himself politically from Argentina’s high-profile vice-president Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner without alienating her power base.

Neither Massa nor Bullrich is expected to deal with Milei at this point in the campaign, and both traditional coalitions were quick to criticize his lack of government experience and the risks of undoing Argentina’s existing economic structures.

On Sunday, candidates will hold a first debate with mandatory participation. A first round of voting will follow three weeks later. If no candidate wins 45% of the vote (or more than 40% with a difference greater than 10% with the candidate that follows in vote total), the two highest-placed candidates will proceed to a runoff vote in November.

“(Milei’s) challenge — with a view toward the second round — is to prevent fear or uncertainty among the vast majority (of voters), who might end up voting for a candidate they never thought of, just to prevent Milei from getting into power,” he said.

More than a hundred dolphins have been found dead in the Brazilian Amazon amid an historic drought and record-high water temperatures that in places have exceeded 102 degrees Fahrenheit.

The dead dolphins were all found in Lake Tefé over the past seven days, according to the Mamirauá Institute, a research facility funded by the Brazilian Ministry of Science.

The institute said such a high number of deaths was unusual and suggested record-high lake temperatures and an historic drought in the Amazon may have been the cause.

The news is likely to add to the concerns of climate scientists over the effects human activity and extreme droughts are having on the region.

The Amazon River, the world’s largest waterway, is currently in the dry season, and several specimens of river fauna are also suffering from record-high temperatures.

The drought in the Amazon is impacting the economy as well.

Below average levels of water have been reported in 59 municipalities in Amazonas State, impeding both transport and fishing activities on the river.

Ukraine will soon face its second winter at war, and the bold campaigns of a year ago that saw significant gains in Kharkiv and Kherson seem a distant memory.

The Ukrainian military is now waging a war of intense attrition against stubborn and larger Russian forces along a front of nearly 1,000 kilometers. It is still desperately short of air power, and offensive action will be disrupted by the deteriorating weather.

The Russians are likely to launch another campaign to cripple Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, plunging its people into a dark winter. On the battlefield, the Russians have adapted. Next year’s defense budget will be 70% higher than this year’s. They are in this for the long haul.

But the Ukrainians are also adapting, after a stuttering start to the counteroffensive.

As Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman argued in The Economist, “Ukrainian soldiers’ ability to master Western tech quickly led to misplaced optimism that the time it takes to develop cohesive fighting units could be short-circuited.”

Now they’ve returned to a style of warfare they know best, using small groups of mobile infantry to test entrenched Russian defenses. It’s also appropriate to the circumstances now, because scores of Russian drones spotted any concentration of forces and directed massive artillery fire against them.

Small and nimble is the answer.

Ukraine is not prepared to risk the casualties that an ambitious mechanized offensive would bring.

This style of warfare will be less affected by the mud and mist of the winter months. “The weather can be a serious obstacle during an advance. But considering how we move forward, and we mostly advance without using the vehicles, I don’t think it will heavily influence that stage of counteroffensive,” Tarnavsky added.

That style of warfare is at one end of the spectrum. But the Ukrainians are also taking advantage of western supplies of longer-range artillery, both in the south and the east. And Kyiv has dramatically increased long-range missile and drone attacks against Russian military hubs: command centers, fuel and ammunition supplies, transport hubs.

Starve, stretch and strike

The chief of the UK’s defense staff, Admiral Tony Radakin, has dubbed this strategy as “starve, stretch and strike” – though much of the striking is currently done at a long distance.

Crimea has become a consistent target – the goal being to disrupt Russian supply lines and degrade the Black Sea Fleet.

Such attacks will likely continue and escalate as winter weather makes progress on the ground still more challenging. High-profile operations, like those this month against the Sevastopol shipyard and the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet, are both a morale-booster and serve to remind Ukraine’s allies that it’s still on the front foot.

The expected introduction of German long-range Taurus missiles and US Army Tactical Missile System (ATACMs) will accentuate Ukraine’s focus on mauling the Russians infrastructure (though not beyond Ukrainian territory.)

As the online military publication WarZone observes: “The ability to deliver a 500-pound warhead with incredible force over long distances would spell big trouble for critical Russian logistics nodes and related infrastructure like bridges, as well as fortified command and control centers, all far behind the front lines.”

Over the past few months, Ukrainian forces have focused on degrading Russian air defenses, forcing the enemy to make painful choices about what to defend, especially as more defenses have been deployed in the Moscow region in the face of a persistent and irritating (if not very destructive) drone campaign.

If as expected Ukraine receives ATACMs with multiple warheads, it will be able to inflict far greater damage on distant Russian targets such as air bases. The head of the Defense Intelligence of Ukraine, Lt Gen. Kyrylo Budanov told War Zone: “Fighting Russian aviation using air defense systems is very costly and ineffective. Aviation should be taken out at the air bases.”

Removing them is going to be a titanic task. Russia’s military has learned from its mistakes.

Nevertheless, some of the best Russian units have suffered at the hands of the growing pipeline of western weapons entering Ukraine, especially extended-range artillery and cluster munitions sent from the US.

The UK Defense Ministry says that parts of Russia’s newly formed 25th Combined Arms Army (CAA) have been deployed to bolster units in the north, essentially plugging holes in an area where neither side is making any progress.

“With 25 CAA apparently being deployed piecemeal to reinforce the over-stretched line, a concerted new Russian offensive is less likely over the coming weeks,” the ministry said last week.

“The degree to which Ukraine can inflict disproportionate casualties and destruction on the Russians in the coming offensives will be an important measure of success,” says Mick Ryan, a former Australian general and author of Futura Doctrina, who has recently been in Ukraine.

Russian morale is hard to gauge. Ukrainian officials say many Russian prisoners of war have little sense of why they were fighting, and discipline is frequently poor. There is anecdotal evidence of this from other sources, but not to the degree that the Russian military machine would be damaged.

However, it’s been frequently (and wrongly) asserted that the Russians are running out of missiles and other munitions. True, Ukrainian officers have reported a sharp decline in incoming artillery fire in some places. But the coming winter will likely see a renewal of missile and drone attacks against Ukrainian energy infrastructure as the “heating season” begins.

Last year, Russian missile barrages damaged or destroyed some two-thirds of Ukraine’s energy facilities – yet failed to break civilian resolve. A series of strikes this month suggests another campaign is imminent.

But just as they seek to degrade Russian air defenses, the Ukrainians have made strides in improving their own.

“Last year, there was no Patriot, NASAMS, IRIS-T, SAMP-T or many other systems,” Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said last week. “Our air defense system has become even more comprehensive and experienced … By the winter, it will become even stronger.”

Energy production has increased too. There are now seven nuclear power reactors working, with two more due to come online. More electricity can be imported from the EU than previously. Domestic production of natural gas has increased.

Distribution remains a problem. Autotransformers are in short supply, and there will still likely be power outages this winter. But the Ukrainian grid is more resilient than it was a year ago.

The long run

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and others have spoken of “steady progress” for Ukraine on the battlefield, but among many western analysts and officials there is a sense of impending stalemate.

More and more, the talk is of the conflict stretching into 2025. History shows that beyond their opening stages wars tend to ossify. That is what happened after the so-called separatist conflict erupted in Donbas in 2014.

Ryan, the former Australian general, says Ukraine’s western partners must recognize and plan for this.

“By committing to support Ukraine for the duration of the conflict, the West can undermine Putin’s efforts to outlast Ukraine’s patrons,” he said.

US Army Maj. Robert Rose, writing in War on the Rocks, concurs. “Ukraine does not have the luxury of conducting maneuver (fast offensive actions). It needs to pursue unglamorous attrition, and we must be prepared to support it until it exhausts the Russian invaders.”

Europe and the United States do remain committed to supporting Ukraine on the battlefield and with financial support. But there are signs of fatigue. Doubts and squabbles percolate.

Ukraine’s recent spat with the Polish government over grain exports showed that it is vulnerable to shifting political moods among allied countries. The election campaign in the US is underway among rival Republicans, and the extent of support for Ukraine is a divisive issue

The spring of 2024 is shaping up to be a potentially important phase in the conflict. Both sides will use the winter to re-tool. Then the first Ukrainian F-16s will be deployed, along with perhaps more ATACMs and other longer-range missiles (besides the growing indigenous production lines in Ukraine.)

That’s why the supply of western arms must accelerate, according to Max Boot at the Council for Foreign Relations.

“Failing to send sufficient weaponry to Ukraine simply increases the odds of the conflict dragging on indefinitely,” Boot said.

The Ukrainians will also be reading the political tea-leaves in the US and among those it regards as less enthusiastic European allies, assessing the state of the “coalition of the willing.”

In Russia, next year may see the war inflict greater economic consequences.

The Kremlin has forced home the narrative that defense of the motherland is in an existential battle; there is no public dissent. Sanctions have hurt but are not yet crippling; the price of oil is helping to limit damage to the state budget.

But with an economy increasingly devoted to sustaining the war machine (at least 6% of GDP will be spent on the military next year), there are growing stresses: labor shortages and inflation as well as a persistently weak ruble. Vladimir Putin will not want to cut social spending ahead of next spring’s election, when most analysts expect oil and gas prices to moderate.

Many variables will shape the future of this conflict next year. First, both sides must endure the mud, frost and mist of the winter months

A US State Department report that accuses the Chinese government of expanding disinformation efforts is “in itself disinformation,” Beijing’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs claimed Saturday.

The ministry shot back after the State Department issued a striking report this week in which it accused the Chinese government of expanding efforts to control information and to disseminate propaganda and disinformation that promotes “digital authoritarianism” in China and around the world.

The US report, issued by the Global Engagement Center on Thursday, alleged that China spends billions of dollars a year on foreign information manipulation and warned that Chinese leader Xi Jinping had “significantly expanded” efforts to “shape the global information environment.”

It also underlined US concerns about China as a main military competitor and key rival in the battle over ideas and global disinformation.

Two days later, China hit back.

“The relevant center of the US State Department which concocted the report is engaged in propaganda and infiltration in the name of ‘global engagement’ – it is a source of disinformation and the command center of ‘perception warfare’,” the ministry said on Saturday.

Referring to wars in Iraq and Syria as well as US reports alleging human rights abuses in China’s Xinjiang as examples, the ministry claimed that the US is “an ‘empire of lies’ through and through.”

“No matter how the US tries to pin the label of ‘disinformation’ on other countries, more and more people in the world have already seen through the US’s ugly attempt to perpetuate its supremacy by weaving lies into ‘emperor’s new clothes’ and smearing others,” the ministry said.

Rishi Sunak will gather with members of his governing Conservative Party on Sunday for what is likely to be their final party conference before the UK’s next general election, which Sunak is currently projected to lose. 

The Conservatives come together for their annual meeting with little good news to celebrate. The party is trailing the opposition Labour Party in the polls by a significant distance. 

Sunak has been criticized by moderates in the party for tacking to the right on key issues like immigration and commitments to reducing carbon emissions. He is also being attacked from the party’s right for what they perceive to be an anti-conservative approach to taxation and public debt. 

As if Sunak’s job uniting his party this week wasn’t hard enough, the Institute for Fiscal Studies, the leading economic research institute in the UK, published a report projecting that taxes will account for around 37% of national income by the next election – the highest level since World War II. 

Party conference season is an important date fixture in the annual British political calendar. Taking place in the early fall, these jamborees are the principal forums for each party to outline its priorities for the next 12 months. 

For the governing party, conference is typically a time when members rally around the leadership and unite against the opposition, insulated from whatever is happening in the wider world of politics. 

This should be especially true as an election approaches. However, Sunak, who wasn’t even the Conservatives’ leader this time last year, has inherited a broken party that has been in power for so long it seems out of ideas and already preparing for the post-mortem and blame game that follows any election loss. 

And factions on both the left and right of the party are already publicly criticising Sunak on a range of issues. 

Examples coming into this year’s conference: 

Former cabinet minister Priti Patel told British channel GB News on Friday that the tax burden was “unsustainable” before unfavourably comparing Sunak to tax-cutting former PM, Margaret Thatcher. 

The Conservative-supporting Daily Mail newspaper ran a column titled: “Didn’t the Tories used to be party of tax CUTS?”

Sunak can also expect vocal criticism from the environmental wing of his party after a significant U-turn last week on climate policy. Sunak delayed a planned moratorium on the sale new gasoline and diesel cars from 2030 to 2035 and pushed back on plans to phase out gas boilers in homes. 

Some Conservatives who support action on the climate crisis, not least former PM Boris Johnson, criticised Sunak, saying the UK “cannot afford to falter now” or “lose our ambition.” 

Such a direct criticism of a sitting PM by a former PM is highly unusual. What makes it particularly painful for Sunak is that Johnson is at the heart of perhaps the most crucial internal battle within the Conservative Party. 

Johnson was forced to resign from office because of a range of scandals last summer. However, Johnson’s most loyal acolytes believe that Sunak’s decision to quit as Johnson’s finance minister was the straw that broke the camel’s back and made Johnson’s position untenable. They believe he was motivated by the opportunity to take a run at the top job himself, something Sunak denies. 

This battle between Sunak and Johnson has created a very strange dynamic within the party. 

Johnson, darling of the Conservative right since the Brexit referendum, is in many ways politically to the left of Sunak. However, his pragmatism over Brexit and cautious economics has led to his allies painting Sunak as a Conservative sellout.

They also believe that Sunak’s betrayal of Johnson and apparent wish-washy centrism is what will ultimately cost the Conservative Party the next general election – ignoring the damage that Johnson did to the party and its standing in the polls through his scandal-ridden premiership. 

Sunak has made attempts to counter these attacks by throwing red meat at Conservative MPs and voters. The U-turn on climate policies is just the most recent example. He’s made a crackdown on immigration – particularly the route across the English Channel from France in so-called small boats – a key plank of his agenda since taking office. 

He’s been accused of sowing division over over the complex issue of trans rights in attempts to win over his own MPs and has leant into the Johnsonite position of attacking “lefty lawyers” over opposition to his plans, including those on immigration.

His hard-line shift doesn’t necessarily resonate with the public, most polls show. Which is why experts believe that Sunak is doubling down on his Conservative base, which might be his only real path to retaining power at the next election. 

“Sunak’s strategy of taking on issues like net zero and small boats is very much a ‘core vote’ strategy, aimed at securing the Conservative base,” says Will Jennings, professor of politics at the University of Southampton. 

“This is not without risk – firstly because it’s not clear how large that core vote is without Boris Johnson, Brexit and Jeremy Corbyn (the controversial, hard-left former Labour leader) and also because voters have other concerns right now – most notably the economy,” he adds. 

If you talk to senior Conservatives right now, there is a quiet acceptance that a loss is the most likely result of the next election. Most agree that not only does this look like a government in its death throes, but also that everyone is already thinking about who will replace Sunak after his defeat. Factions on the right and left of the party are already forming and people on both sides are already talking about how to win the battle for the soul of their party. 

While the next election may not be a foregone conclusion, the next few months will be critical if Sunak is to start turning the polls around and make the comeback of all comebacks. All of that starts this week in Manchester: a good conference could lift the mood and rally the troops; a bad conference could be the kiss of death to any hope his party had left.