The brunt of extreme heat that has been choking the Northeast and mid-Atlantic regions this week is expected to end late Saturday, but many in southern US are set to endure suffocating temperatures for a few more days as heat-related deaths rise.

Various heat alerts persist for millions stretching from Missouri to Virginia and New Jersey, but most of them are expected to expire Saturday night. During the day, temperatures will not let up.

“Many places are set to break their temperature records for daytime highs as well as warm nighttime lows through Saturday morning,” the National Weather Service said, adding that some areas in the Northeast and mid-Atlantic can expect their highest temperatures so far this year.

The dangerously high temperatures have proven deadly in Arizona, Illinois and Texas as the expansive heat wave spread across much of the country, with humidity also playing a role in exacerbating the physical impacts on humans, animals and plants.

Experts agree that human-induced climate change is a main factor leading to record high temperatures, and scientists say July will be the planet’s hottest month on record.

Heat indexes – a measure of what the temperature feels like on the skin when accounting for relative humidity – are expected to hover around 100 and 110 degrees Saturday over parts of the Midwest, mid-Atlantic and Northeast.

But relief is on the way for some: On Sunday, a cold front will progress through the mid-Atlantic, ultimately ending the heat wave for much of the East Coast.

Meanwhile, the Southwest is expected in a heat wave for several days before some ease sets in. Phoenix may end its dayslong streak of highs above 110 degrees on Sunday, while Las Vegas is expected to see highs exceeding 100 degrees into early next week. Another heat wave is expected to build early next week across the South and Gulf Coast.

Here’s how the heat has been impacting communities across the country:

• Heat-related deaths rise in US: In Illinois, a 53-year-old woman died Thursday in her Peoria apartment, which didn’t have air conditioning because power had been disconnected there, the Peoria County coroner’s office said. She died from “an exacerbation of her chronic medical conditions due to the excessive heat in the apartment,” the coroner’s office said. In Texas, a 66-year-old woman died early Tuesday from the extreme heat after being taken to a hospital from her apartment in North Richland Hills, police said.

• Heat alerts: Washington, DC, and parts of Maryland and Virginia along with St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri, are under an excessive heat warning Saturday. Philadelphia, New York City, and Newark, New Jersey, are under heat advisories.

The extreme heat has taken a toll on animals in Tennessee this week. Authorities rescued 21 dogs from a garage and a concrete shed-like structure on the premises of a Lawrenceburg home that’s “unfit for human or animal lodging” the Lawrence County sheriff said. Temperatures in the area were in the 90s, and the dogs had no food or water. The dogs were removed from the property and received treatment.

In Arizona this week, some cactuses have died at a Phoenix botanical garden from soaring temperatures, and officials in the state also were reporting emergency room visits for extreme heat burns after people fall to the ground.

As Israel plunges deeper into crisis after the country’s parliament passed the first bill of a controversial judicial overhaul, thousands of Israeli army reservists – the backbone of the Israeli military – are threatening not to show up for work. And Israel’s leaders are sounding alarms about the country’s readiness for war.

The law that came into effect on Wednesday took away the court’s power to veto government decisions based on them being “unreasonable.” Millions opposed the change, according to opinion polls, which critics said would erode the independence of the courts and harm Israel’s democracy.

“At the current point in time, the IDF (Israel Defense Forces) is competent,” IDF Chief Spokesperson Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari told reporters on Tuesday, but he acknowledged that the country’s military readiness could be affected.

“If reservists do not show up for a long time, there will be damage to the army’s competence. It is a gradual process that will be affected according to the presence of the reservists,” he said.

The threat is unprecedented in its scope, experts say, and the military has pleaded with reservists to remain in their posts.

“The IDF needs you – only together will we protect our common home,” IDF Chief of General Staff Herzi Halevi said Tuesday, addressing reservists who refused to show up for service.

Nearly 10,000 military reservists said before the passage of the controversial “reasonableness” bill on Monday that they would refuse to volunteer for duty if it was passed. And the number of refusers is growing, according to Hagari.

US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke by phone with Israeli Minister of Defense Yoav Gallant and reiterated the US’ commitment to Israel’s security. But he also said that “broad consensus through political dialogue” was critical to maintain democracy.

Chuck Freilich, a senior researcher at The Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv who served for over 20 years in Israel’s national security establishment, said that Israel is at a historical “inflection point,” in which “extreme measures may have to be taken to endure Israel’s fundamental character of democracy.”

Speaking about reservists refusing, Freilich said that “on the one hand, it is admirable.” But on the other hand, he said, “it is a horrible thing for the IDF.” It was remarkable, he added, that one of the world’s better militaries “is threatening to come apart at the seams over domestic changes.”

When the vote passed on Monday, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called on the IDF to “stay out of any political controversy,” saying that “the call for refusal harms the security of all citizens of the country.”

The ‘backbone’ of Israel’s military

A country that went to war shortly after its founding in 1948, Israel has fought seven wars and engaged in several other smaller conflicts with its neighbors.

Every Israeli over the age of 18 who is Jewish, Druze or Circassian must serve in the military, an institution that is deeply entrenched in many Israelis’ sense of identity and nationhood. Palestinian citizens of Israel and ultra-Orthodox Jews are exempt from swerving, among some others.

Yiftach Golov, a disabled IDF veteran and a leading member of Brothers and Sisters in Arms, the IDF reservists and veterans protest movement, said that “by definition, the reservists are the backbone of the IDF.”

After completing their mandatory service, soldiers can remain part of the country’s reserve army – a force of some 400,000 soldiers who can at any moment be called to serve. Israelis can remain part of the reserve until their forties or sometimes beyond.

Among those threatening to quit are more than 1,000 reservists in the Israeli Air Force, whom Golov describes as one the military’s “main, major forces,” defining its aerial abilities. The Israeli Air Force makes up one third of the IDF’s manpower.

Another reservist called on the government to “stop the madness, stop the destruction of the army.”

The military remains a huge part of Israeli society, even while that influence has faded a bit over the years, Freilich said, with more than half of Israeli society today having had some experience in the IDF. For many Israelis, military service is a rite of passage.

Freilich says that reservists are likely to return to duty if there is a real national security threat, but their protest nonetheless harms the IDF.

“This isn’t a refusal to serve,” he said. “These are people who are totally committed to Israel’s defense, and if there was some sort of security emergency tomorrow, they will all report for duty instantaneously.”

“What they’re saying is that this crisis is so important there is a higher morality they have to report to,” he added.

Volatile surroundings

Israel’s domestic crisis takes place amid increased tensions at its borders.

The country is still formally at war with several of its neighbors, including Lebanon and Syria. Violence regularly flares up between Israeli forces and Palestinians in East Jerusalem and in the occupied West Bank as well as with Palestinian militants in Gaza.

After years of calm, tensions also rose across Israel’s northern border with Lebanon earlier this year, when Israel and militants in southern Lebanon exchanged a barrage of rockets in April. The escalation was the worst between the two sides since 2006. Israel blamed Hamas for the rockets.

Some of Israel’s enemies have been watching the crisis closely.

Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah said Monday in a televised speech that Israel is “on a path of collapse, fragmentation, and disappearance,” Reuters reported.

“Today, in particular, is the worst day in the history of the entity (Israel), as some of its people say.”

Netanyahu and others have warned of the dangers of not showing up for military duty, but Golov of Brothers and Sisters in Arms says that this is a “divide and conquer” tactic by the prime minister.

The government will try to create a sense of “an opposite world,” said Golov, “when the patriots become traitors.”

Freilich said that Nasrallah, Iran, Gaza and the West Bank, would find “a lot of joy in watching Israel potentially tear itself apart.”

“But the problem is not with the protesters. The problem is with the government and the prime minister that caused this,” he said. “He (Netanyahu) is willing to pay any price to move forward with this.”

Golov sees reservists threatening not to serve as a sign of something much bigger.

“Now it is only the beginning,” Golov said. “But you will see this movement now penetrating into the masses of the ground brigades, also known as the army.”

A singer who pulled down his pants during a performance at a rock festival in northern China has been detained by authorities, the latest incident highlighting the fine line artists must tread in a country where the space for free expression is highly limited.

In a statement Monday, the local culture bureau of Shijiazhuang city said the singer – identified by the surname Ding – was detained by police for “damaging social morality.” Meanwhile, a show organizer was fined $28,000 and suspended from hosting concerts, it added.

Videos on Chinese social media show the frontman of the band Violent Champagne drop his shorts during a gig at the Rock Home Town festival in the city on Saturday.

“Drop the briefs!” audience members can be heard chanting in the videos. But the footage shows the singer keeping his underwear on.

The recent return of live performances after years of pandemic lockdowns has been welcomed by music lovers in China.

But as the events in Shijiazhuang have showed, authorities keep a close watch and react to anything perceived to cross unacceptable political or moral lines.

Shijiazhuang, the capital of the Hebei province surrounding Beijing, has been known for its indie music scene, something city officials have been keen to capitalize on.

Earlier this month the city announced it would host the Rock Home Town festival until October to help attract tourists and boost consumption amid China’s sluggish post-Covid economic recovery.

But many commentators online questioned how dedicated officials really were to the ethos of rocking out in the wake of the singer’s detention.

“Shijiazhuang wants to be the City of Rock, but do you have that gene?” said a comment on China’s Twitter-like Weibo following the singer’s detention.

“Before you start to rock, you are rolled away,” another quipped.

The Shijiazhuang culture bureau said Violent Champagne were not part of the festival’s official lineup, according to a report in state-run Jimu News.

In its statement Monday, the bureau said it would “strengthen supervision of performances” at the event.

“We hope that performers and staff will consciously abide by laws and regulations, strengthen morality, and provide healthy and positive entertainment for audiences,” it said.

Shijiazhuang was put on the music map in 2010 when the song “Kill the One from Shijiazhuang” by local band Omnipotent Youth Society was released and became a hit.

The melancholic tune carried lyrics depicting a man’s frustration with the banality of life – a sentiment that resonated among many in the predominantly working class province known for its iron and steel industries.

The song came back into the limelight again in 2021 when the Communist Youth League of Hebei changed the title to “The Shijiazhuang man that can’t be killed,” recasting the lyrics glorifying China’s resilience and its rapid economic development in the past decades.

That rendition received an immediate backlash on China’s video sharing platform Bilibili, with many netizens criticizing the awkward instillation of “positive energy” by party officials into a song that originally had a very different sentiment.

Four Australian defense personnel are missing in the water off the east coast of Australia after they were forced to ditch their Taipan helicopter in the sea during joint wargame drills with the United States late Friday.

Speaking at a press conference in Brisbane on Saturday, Defense Minister Richard Marles said the search was ongoing for the four crew of the Australian Army helicopter.

“We meet this day with a heavy heart. Last night, just after 10.30, an Australian Army helicopter, an MRH-90, ditched in waters close to Hamilton Island. The helicopter was engaging in a two-helicopter mission,” Marles said.

“There were four air crew aboard. Because there was another helicopter present, a search and rescue was able to commence immediately. As we speak to you now, the four-air crew are yet to be found. The search and rescue continues,” he added.

The aircraft “impacted waters” near the Lindeman Island, off the coast of the state of Queensland. A search operation involving both search and rescue aircraft and sea vessels is under way, according to the Australian Defense Ministry.

Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said their “thoughts are with loved ones of the missing” in a joint statement with his Marles, also the deputy prime minister.

“All Australians hold them in our hearts and we hold onto hope as the search and rescue teams go about their work right now. We have the utmost confidence in their professionalism and skill,” it said.

The mission was a part of large-scale military drills involving the United States, known as Talisman Sabre. The drills are held every other year, alternating between the two countries, and also often involve other allied forces.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin, who are both in Australia, spoke of those missing in the crash.

“We are thinking of the families, their friends, comrades,” Blinken said. “For everything they’ve been doing to the freedom that we share, and that is what unites us more than anything else and we are stepping up with assistance,” he added.

Austin said it’s “always tough” to encounter accidents in training. “But the reason that we trained to such high standards is so that we can be successful and we can protect lives when we are called to answer any kind of crisis,” he said.

The exercises have been paused to allow all participants “regardless of their nation, to reach out and let their families know what is going on,” Talisman Sabre Exercise Director Brigadier Damien Hill said at the Brisbane press conference.

Marles said the families of the four-missing crew “have been notified of this incident and our hopes and our thoughts are very much with the air crew and their families. Our hopes are very much with the efforts of the search and rescue crews as they go about their work right now.

Friday’s crash is the second time this year the Australian Army has been forced to ditch an MRH-90 Taipan into the sea. Two injuries resulted from the previous incident in March, which was put down to engine failure.

In 2019 the Australian government announced it would retire its entire fleet of Airbus-manufactured Taipans years ahead of schedule, describing the Taipans as a “project of concern for the last decade.”

Less than one year before India takes to the polls to elect its prime minister, dozens of the country’s opposition parties have joined hands to form an alliance in a bid to unseat one of the most popular leaders the nation has ever seen: Narendra Modi.

The leaders of 26 political parties formed the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, known as INDIA, during a meeting in the southern city of Bengaluru last week, marking a significant step in the months leading up to the general election.

Modi, the populist leader of the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has tightened his grip on India’s democratic institutions in way not seen since 1970s, when Indira Gandhi ruled the country with an iron fist, pushing it toward autocracy.

Since Modi’s rise to power nearly a decade ago, critics say the once secular and democratic founding ethos of the world’s largest democracy is crumbling at alarming speed, with minorities feeling persecuted under the BJP’s majoritarian policies and any criticism of the government facing censorship and punishment.

In the years since becoming prime minister in 2014, Modi has grown only more powerful and popular, while his opponents have been pushed further to the side.

Now, it appears as if their only chance of winning is to join forces and consolidate their influence.

Next year’s vote is a “fight between Narendra Modi and INDIA,” Rahul Gandhi, the embattled former chair of the main opposition party, the Indian National Congress, told reporters after the alliance was formed last week.

While Indian elections remain competitive, taking on the ruling BJP will be a tough challenge, even for the most united of alliances.

The star power of Modi, his divisive but popular rhetoric among India’s Hindu majority, the lack of alternatives and the historic infighting of opposition, means the BJP are well placed to fight off challenges.

But despite previous personality clashes and power ambitions, the 26 opposition leaders appear unified in one goal: to overturn Modi.

Analysts say the BJP might have a reason to worry.

“The meeting should be seen as a serious attempt to form a united front to stop PM Modi’s BJP winning again,” said Niranjan Sahoo, a senior fellow at New Delhi’s Observer Research Foundation.

“Many regional parties sense a fighting chance vis-a-vis a hegemonic BJP under PM Modi.”

On Wednesday, the alliance made its first attempt by tabling a no-confidence motion against Modi for his inaction in the restive state of Manipur, which has seen an eruption of deadly ethnic violence.

The motion is unlikely to succeed, but it carries a symbolic message of an opposition united.

Gathering of important parties

Coined to evoke a sense of nationalism ahead of the 2024 general election, the INDIA alliance in a statement last week emphasized its goal of upholding the country’s democratic institutions.

“The character of our republic is being severely assaulted in a systematic manner by the BJP,” the statement said. “We resolve to fight the systemic conspiracy by BJP to target, persecute and suppress our fellow Indians.”

A key success of the new alliance has been to persuade other regionally important opposition parties to join Congress. That includes the Trinamool Congress, which is influential in West Bengal; the Samajwadi Party, which has a significant voting bloc in India’s largest state, Uttar Pradesh; and the Aam Admi Party, which governs Delhi.

It “gathers some of the most important regional opposition parties, as well as a number of smaller formations,” said Gilles Verniers, assistant professor of Political Science at Ashoka University and Co-Director of the Trivedi Centre for Political Data, adding it offers a “powerful symbol” of unity.

The coming together of these parties, many of whom have been competing against one another for decades, is significant, and that its leaders are willing to put to their own prime ministerial ambitions to one side, is noteworthy, analysts say.

Sahoo said it was “formidable” that these leaders “have shown a willingness to patch up with their rivals” to defeat the BJP.

“These parties led by Congress can put up a direct fight with the BJP in nearly two-third seats of Lok Sabha elections in 2024.” Sahoo said. “They can share resources and logistics to bridge the wide asymmetry with BJP.”

Millions of new voters

While the opposition parties got together in Bengaluru last week, the BJP and its allies also gathered in the capital New Delhi to celebrate nine years in power.

Modi described the INDIA alliance as a “hardcore corruption convention,” adding the BJP was on course to clinch another victory in 2024.

But analysts say there are signs of anxiety within the BJP, especially after it lost state elections to the Congress in the significant southern state of Karnataka earlier this year – a sign that its divisive Hindu-nationalist policies are not always a guaranteed vote-winner.

The election in Karnataka was the first significant gauge of voter sentiment since former Congress chief Rahul Gandhi embarked on a 4,000-kilometer (2,500-mile) trek across India to revive interest in his once powerful party.

“They are already worried,” Sahoo said. “This is clearly visible from the fact that the BJP brought as many as 38 partner allies to fight the Lok Sabha elections (lower house elections) next year.”

Verniers, from Ashoka University, noted “there will be millions of new voters,” to convince at the next election.

“The BJP must answer for the extraordinary concentration of wealth and for the economic distress that is prevalent in the country,” he said.

Still, Modi remains the face of India. Under his leadership, the country’s influence on the global stage has appeared to grow, with Western allies courting New Delhi and global companies looking to expand their footprint in the world’s most populous nation.

“After 10 years in power, the BJP now represents the establishment, and no longer the outsider force that would transform how politics is done in India,” said Verniers, adding however: “They do have reasons to be worried.”

No clear leader

While the BJP can bank on the popularity of Modi, the INDIA alliance has not yet put forward a leader to challenge him next year.

Gandhi, the former Congress chief and great-grandson of India’s first prime minister, is perhaps the only candidate with the same level of star power, or name recognition, to take on Modi.

But Gandhi remains mired in a legal dispute his allies say is politically motivated, and has seen his status as a lawmaker revoked, leaving him unable to stand in the election next year.

“Having an acceptable PM face is going to be the biggest challenge for the new coalition given they will be campaigning against a popular and demagogic prime minister,” said Sahoo, from Observer Research Foundation.

Gandhi, who was convicted in March of defamation, is challenging that judgment in India’s Supreme Court. A ruling in his favor would see him get reinstated and able to run for prime minister.

It remains a challenge for INIDA to take on the BJP and its allies, but analysts say the new alliance has shaken the ruling order and sets the stage for a dramatic showdown next year.

“This has huge symbolic values which has brought shivers in the (BJP) camp,” Sahoo said. “Regionalism is a major issue in continent-sized democracy and regional parties have the ability to check the national party with deeply unfederal impulses.”

The Ukrainian military is doubling down on efforts to break through thick Russian defenses in its counteroffensive in the south, which has struggled to gain momentum since being launched at the beginning of June.

Ukrainian officials have said little about what fresh units are being committed to the offensive, but the military has clearly added recently-minted units equipped with western armor in at least one important segment of the southern front.

The challenges faced by the Ukrainians are perhaps less to do with numbers and more to do with capabilities, training and coordination, factors that are critical when an attacking force is faced with such an array of defenses.

Fragments of geolocated video show that western armor such as Bradley fighting vehicles have been part of the renewed assault and that experienced units have been brought into the fray. But tight operational security on the part of the Ukrainians precludes a full assessment of what is being done to reboot the counteroffensive – and where.

There’s still debate about the size of the additional effort.

A Ukrainian brigade is roughly 3,000 troops.

Mines and more mines

For weeks Ukrainian forces have struggled to break through Russian lines because of layers of defenses: tank traps, other obstacles and dense minefields. According to some Ukrainian accounts, they have resorted to using small groups of military engineers working through forested areas to cut a path through or evade these minefields.

But navigating them will not break the back of Russian defenses. Satellite imagery shows multiple layers of Russian fortifications, sometimes 20 kilometers deep: breach one and another awaits.

Despite hurried training, some of it in western Europe, Ukrainian forces appear to be struggling to carry out combined arms operations: the use of multiple different assets to suppress and degrade Russian defenses both in the air and on the ground.

“Russian attack helicopters and fighter-bombers are exploiting weaknesses in Ukraine’s air defenses, enabling the Russians to strike Ukrainian ground forces. Conducting a mechanized penetration of this magnitude while the adversary has air superiority is extremely difficult,” says Barros at the ISW.

“Operations are more sequential than synchronized,” says analyst Franz-Stefan Gady after a visit to the front lines and extensive conversations with the Ukrainian military.

“Ukraine will have to better synchronize and adapt current tactics, without which western equipment will not prove tac[tically] decisive in the long run. This is happening but it is slow work in progress.”

Gady says that in addition, Ukrainian troops he spoke with “are all too aware that lack of progress is often more due to force employment, poor tactics, lack of coordination (between) units, bureaucratic red tape/infighting, Soviet style thinking etc.”

He says that makes the Ukrainians more vulnerable as they try to advance, and there is some evidence of that in the few videos that have emerged on social media.

“It’s not just about equipment. There’s simply no systematic pulling apart of the Russian defensive system that I could observe,” Gady tweeted. “Weakening Russian defenses to a degree that enables maneuver,” which will include the use of cluster munitions, is a critical task in the weeks ahead.

The commitment of new units this week does appear to have enabled the Ukrainians make modest advances south of the town of Orikhiv, edging closer to the important Russian hub of Tokmak some 20 kilometers to the south of the current frontline.

There are other modest successes further east, but the few frontline accounts to have emerged speak of unceasing Russian aviation and artillery strikes.

Kostyantyn Denysov, a member of the Freedom Legion, said the fighting was relentless.

“In a word, it’s hell,” he told RFE/Radio Liberty this week. “There are small arms battles along the entire contact line, counter-battery fighting.”

“Their helicopters are flying here in pairs and shelling our positions, Su-25 assault aircraft are working, dropping bombs on our guys’ heads. Many units have been brought here to try not only to stop our movement, but also to recapture lost positions in certain areas.”

The Ukrainian military’s critical need is to gain momentum – and force Russian commanders to make painful choices about where and how to deploy their units.

It is far too early to tell whether the Ukrainian counteroffensive has entered a more dynamic phase. The ISW cautions that “this kind of penetration battle will be one of the most difficult things for Ukrainian forces to accomplish.”

Nor can the Ukrainians focus their entire effort on the south. The Russians still hope to make tactical advances of their own in the north and eastern fronts, so the Ukrainians have to retain substantial and capable forces along the straggling northern front.

As former Australian general Mick Ryan writes: “General Gerasimov, who we assume retains overall command of the Russian special military operation in Ukraine, is implementing a defensive strategy. But concurrently he is conducting offensive activities at the tactical and operation levels,” especially along the front that leads north from Kreminna to Kupyansk.

The Kremlin has seized upon the slow progress of the Ukrainian counter-offensive: a rare opportunity to go beyond damage limitation.

President Vladimir Putin said on July 21 that it was “clear today that the Western curators of the Kiev regime are certainly disappointed with the results of the counteroffensive that the current Ukrainian authorities announced in previous months.”

But this conflict has been a graveyard of premature declarations.

There are factors that may work in Ukraine’s favor.

George Barros at the ISW says the Ukrainians may be able to exploit geographical advantages.

“Russian defensive lines are not all contiguous or uniformly suited for strong defence. Some lines are bisected by water features or difficult terrain. Some lines are arrayed in such a manner that it could make a controlled withdrawal from one prepared defensive line to the other difficult.”

Pointing to successful Ukrainian attacks along the Mokri Yaly river, Barros says that “many such exploitable terrain intricacies exist along the southern frontline.”

Russian units are suffering battle fatigue, with insufficient rotation or relief even as reinforcements are brought forward. Elements of the 58th Combined Arms Army have been fighting in Zaporizhzhia non-stop for nearly two months.

Its commander, Major General Ivan Popov, was dismissed earlier this month for complaining to the Russian Defense Ministry about the situation.

Most observers say that in contrast, Ukrainian morale remains robust.

Even so, Gady contends that “Russian forces, even if severely degraded and lacking ammo, are likely capable of delaying, containing or repulsing individual platoon- or company-sized Ukrainian advances unless these attacks are better coordinated & synchronized along the broader frontline.”

The long road

Some Ukrainian officials have complained that allied expectations have been unreasonable given the depth of Russian defenses and Russian air superiority – and the speed with which they have had to stand up new brigades.

While grateful for Western equipment such as mine engineering vehicles and cluster munitions, they say much more is needed. F16s would neutralize Russia’s air superiority; longer-range artillery would accelerate the damage to the Russian military’s logistics.

Absent an unexpected collapse of Russian lines, Ukrainian gains “are likely to occur over a long period of time and interspersed with lulls and periods of slower and more grinding efforts as the Ukrainians come to successive Russian defensive lines and themselves require relief and rotation,” says the ISW.

Gady concurs. “I suspect this will remain a bloody attritional fight with reserve units being fed in incrementally in the coming weeks and months,” he tweeted.

If that is the case, and this conflict begins to resemble the static frontlines that began to solidify in Donbas in 2015-16, when Russian-backed forces captured Ukrainian territory, other questions arise.

Will western governments begin to exert pressure on Ukraine to seek a settlement? And given the losses suffered thus far, Russia’s ability to generate reinforcements and the uncertainties surrounding the US presidential election – will the Ukrainian government’s own calculations shift?

A number of F1 drivers have raised concerns about safety at this weekend’s Belgian Grand Prix, after inclement weather was forecasted.

On the day of the Belgian GP, there is a 40% chance of rain. The bulk of that rain is likely to fall in the afternoon and evening, otherwise there will be mostly cloudy skies.

The track at Spa-Francorchamps has a history of crashes. Earlier in July, 18-year-old Dutch driver Dilano van ’t Hoff died as the result of a collision during a Formula Regional European Championship by Alpine (FRECA) race at the track.

In 2019, Formula 2 driver Anthoine Hubert died after being hit at high speed at Spa-Francorchamps.

Alpine driver Pierre Gasly, a friend of Hubert, has led tributes to his fellow Frenchman whenever F1 has returned to the track.

Meanwhile Mercedes driver George Russell has called on the Federation Internationale de l’Automobile (FIA), motorsport’s governing body, to make “bold” decisions in regards to calling off the race should the weather deteriorate.

“At the moment it’s constant communication with the FIA following the tragic passing of Dilano in FRECA. The two questions are: Is Spa safe enough? Then, it’s a question of the conditions. Motorsport will always be dangerous when you’re travelling at this speed,” Russell said, per Sky Sports.

“If you were to put a ranking of risk of all of the circuits, for sure Spa is one of the riskier circuits along with Jeddah, Monaco and Suzuka to a degree. Then the combination of the weather, it’s very challenging.

“We just have no visibility whatsoever. The way I describe it is driving down a motorway in pouring rain and turning your windscreen wipers off. So not really any short-term solutions. I personally think Spa is safe enough, we just need to find a solution for the visibility.”

Two years ago, the race was canceled due to poor weather after just three minutes and 27 seconds of racing.

Russell, who is also a director of the Grand Prix Drivers’ Association, added: “Fortunately the weather looks better on Sunday, so that will be going ahead. But following recent events, I think the FIA have to be bold with their decisions when it comes to safety and visibility.

“We all want to race but when you’re going down that straight at over 200mph and you can’t see 50 meters in front of you, there will be huge incidents. So they have a big responsibility this weekend.”

Other drivers – including Carlos Sainz, Valtteri Bottas and Fernando Alonso – have echoed Russell’s concerns about the safety of driving on the track in poor weather.

Eau Rouge

Ferrari driver Charles Leclerc also said changes can be made to the track to make it safer.

“The walls in the straights after Eau Rouge I think could be … we should have a bit more space on the left and right where, if you lose control of the car,” Leclerc told reporters during his pre-race press conference.

“I think the way it is done at the moment, you are bouncing on the walls, and you have very high chances of finding yourself in the way again, and I think this is probably a change that we should consider in the future.”

Eau Rouge, named after the stream which runs underneath it and its reddish hue, is one of motorsport’s most famous corners. The corner has evolved over the years, with the safety measures implemented, such as barriers being moved back, as cars get faster.

Leclerc added: “Then the two biggest problems after that is visibility. It’s really difficult to put into words what we are seeing, apart from saying that we are seeing nothing.

“But we are not exaggerating, when we say we don’t see anything: we really don’t see anything when it’s raining.

“And this is a really big problem for Formula 1, for motorsport in general, any single-seaters. Now, we have quite a bit of downforce, there’s quite a lot of spray. And then this causes quite a lot of incidents, just because we cannot react to what there is in front. So easy to say that, much more difficult to find a solution for that.

“But I know that the FIA is on it, and is obviously trying to do the best on that. When is it safe to start a race, and this is another topic for the FIA to look closely, especially on a weekend like this, where it seems we will have quite a lot of rain throughout the whole weekend, to not feel the pressure of starting a race.”

“But at the end … safety comes first. And this needs to be the priority and people, and first of all, us drivers, we shouldn’t complain if we don’t have any laps because it is not safe to do so, with everything that has happened.”

The leader of Ukraine’s national fencing team, Olga Kharlan, said she “acted with my heart” following her disqualification from the world championships for refusing to shake hands with a Russian opponent.

The four-time individual world champion and four-time Olympic medalist also called for a rule change regarding the disqualification of athletes who refuse to shake hands with opponents.

An athlete’s refusal to shake hands after a contest results in a black card and expulsion, according to International Fencing Federation rules.

“The rules have to change because the world is changing,” Kharlan said in a video message posted on Instagram on Thursday, during which she also thanked her supporters.

Kharlan had just beaten Russian Anna Smirnova, who was competing as an individual neutral athlete, at the world championships in Milan when the Ukrainian fencer offered her sabre to tap blades rather than shaking hands.

Smirnova then walked away before staging a sit-down protest for about 45 minutes.

“I did not want to shake hands with that athlete and I acted with my heart,” said Kharlan.

“So when I heard that they were going to remove me from the competition, disqualify me and give me a black card, of course it killed me. It killed me so much that I was screaming in pain.”

She added that she came “back to life” thanks to messages of support from the public, “especially the support from our fighters who are defending us.”

On Friday, the International Fencing Federation announced that it is permitting Kharlan to participate in the sabre team competition at the world championships.

“We have discussed this issue and decision thoroughly, and we have met with Ms. Kharlan,” the federation’s interim president Emmanuel Katsiadakis said as part of a press release.

“Furthermore, and after consultation with the International Olympic Committee, we believe this decision is made in keeping with the Olympic Spirit. It also sends a message of sensitivity and understanding to our members and all sports federations, as the world faces tremendous challenges.”

In the press release, Kharlan said that she was grateful for the decision, adding: “The most important thing for an athlete is to be able to compete, for my family, my team, my country and all the people who support me. During these difficult few days, I appreciate all the support I’ve had from around the world.”

The issue of Ukrainians and Russians not shaking hands in sport is not new. Ukrainian tennis stars – namely Elina Svitolina, Marta Kostyuk, and Lesia Tsurenko – have all refused to shake hands with Russian opponents.

Svitolina, a semifinalist at Wimbledon this month, offered her support to Kharlan, writing on social media on Thursday: “We are not shaking hands with Russian and Belarusian athletes. That is our position! I call on international sports organisations and federations to respect our decision!”

Scorching temperatures will reach peak intensity for millions from the Midwest to the Northeast on Friday into Saturday, as other areas that have been suffering for weeks take grim steps to deal with the rising human cost of a record-long heat wave during the planet’s hottest month in more than 100,000 years.

The number of people dying from heat-related complications is rising. In Arizona, the Maricopa County Medical Examiner’s Office in Phoenix brought in 10 refrigerated containers to handle a possible overflow of heat-related deaths.

The county has reported 25 heat-associated deaths so far this year as of Monday, with dozens of other deaths still under investigation for a potential link to heat.

Arizona officials are also reporting emergency room visits for extreme heat burns after people fall to the ground – and even cactuses are wilting and dying from the persistent triple-digit temperatures.

Animals are also suffering. Twenty-one dogs were rescued from high heat in a garage and a concrete shed-like structure on the premises of a home “unfit for human or animal lodging” in Lawrenceburg, Tennessee, the Lawrence County Sheriff said. Temperatures in the area were in the 90s and the dogs had no food or water. The dogs were all removed from the property and are being treated, some for “physical injuries.”

More than 150 million people from Southern California to New England now face dangerous heat for the second consecutive day after it expanded north and east. Record-high temperatures were reported on Thursday in Arizona, California, Texas, Louisiana and Washington, DC.

Heat indexes – a measure of what the temperature feels like on the skin when accounting for relative humidity – are expected to be between 105 and 110 degrees on Friday, particularly over the mid-Atlantic and Central Plains.

Overnight temperatures won’t dip below the 80s in places like St Louis and Kansas City – a particularly dangerous forecast since nighttime heat limits the opportunity for the body to cool off and protect itself from heat illness.

Here’s how some communities have taken heat precautions to try to keep people safe:

The heat is also taxing power infrastructure in many parts of the country.

Energy provider Con Edison has asked New York residents to reduce their consumption. “Intense heat and increased demand for air conditioning can cause strain on the electric system and may lead to localized outages,” the utility said in a news release.

And PJM Interconnection – the nation’s largest power grid system – on Thursday declared an emergency alert, which instructs all systems to be online, including those with planned outages. The utility coordinates electricity for more than 65 million people in all or parts of Delaware, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Maryland, Michigan, New Jersey, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia and Washington, DC, according to its website.

When will it end?

Residents of Chicago will see a triple-digit heat index Friday, but temperatures are expected to cool Saturday when a downright cool high in the upper 70s is forecast.

That relief will spread to the mid-Atlantic and Northeast by Sunday as a cold front arrives, including in New York where a high in the low 80s is forecast on Sunday and Washington, DC, where the heat index will exceed 100 degrees Friday and Saturday before highs drop back into the upper 80s by Sunday.

Relatively cooler temperatures are finally headed to Phoenix, too. The record long streak of 28 consecutive 110-plus degree days could finally end by Sunday or Monday.

Unfortunately, the heat won’t disappear entirely. Several locations along the Gulf Coast and in Texas like New Orleans, Houston and Dallas could threaten record high temperatures on Monday and Tuesday.

Outdoor recreation is on track for another record-setting year. In 2022, US national parks logged more than 300 million visits – and that means a lot more people on roads and trails.

While research shows that spending time outside is good for physical and mental health, long lines and gridlocked roads can make the experience a lot less fun. Crowding also makes it harder for park staff to protect wildlife and fragile lands and respond to emergencies. To manage the crowds, some parks are experimenting with timed-entry vehicle reservation systems and permits for popular trails.

For all of their popularity, national parks are just one subset of US public lands. Across the nation, the federal government owns more than 640 million acres (2.6 million square kilometers) of land. Depending on each site’s mission, its uses may include logging, livestock grazing, mining, oil and gas production, wildlife habitat or recreation – often, several of these at once. In contrast, national parks exist solely to protect some of the most important places for public enjoyment.

In my work as a historian and researcher, I’ve explored the history of public land management and the role of national parks in shaping landscapes across the Americas. Many public lands are prime recreational territory and are also becoming increasingly crowded. Finding solutions requires visitors, gateway communities, state agencies and the outdoor industry to collaborate.

Alternatives to national parks

The US government is the nation’s largest land manager by far. Federal property makes up 28% of surface land area across the 50 states. In Western states like Nevada, the federal footprint can be as large as 80% of the land. That’s largely because much of this land is arid, and lack of water makes farming difficult. Other areas that are mountainous or forested were not initially viewed as valuable when they came under US ownership – but values have changed.

Public lands are more diverse than national parks. Some are scenic; others are just open space. They include all kinds of ecosystems, from forests to grasslands, coastlines, red rock canyons, deserts and ranges covered with sagebrush. They also include battlefields, rivers, trails and monuments. Many are remote, but others are near or within major metropolitan areas.

Many people who love hiking, fishing, backpacking or other outdoor activities know that national parks are crowded, and they often seek other places to enjoy nature, including public lands. That trend intensified during the Covid-19 pandemic, when lockdowns and social distancing protocols motivated people to get outside wherever they could.

The rise of remote work has also fueled a population shift toward smaller Western towns with access to open space and good internet access for videoconferencing. Popular remote work bases like Durango, Colorado, and Bend, Oregon, have become known as “Zoom towns” – a fresh take on the old boomtowns that brought people west in the 19th century.

With these new populations, gateway communities close to popular public lands face critical decisions. Outdoor recreation is a powerful economic engine: In 2021, it contributed an estimated US$454 billion to the nation’s economy – more than auto manufacturing and air transport combined.

But embracing recreational tourism can lead local communities into the amenity trap – the paradox of loving a place to death. Recreation economies that fail to manage growth, or that neglect investments in areas like housing and infrastructure, risk compromising the sense of place that draws visitors. But planning can proactively shape growth to maintain community character and quality of life.

Broadening recreation

People use public lands for many activities beyond a quiet hike in the woods. For instance, the Phoenix District of the federal Bureau of Land Management operates more than 3 million acres across central Arizona for at least 14 different recreational uses, including hiking, fishing, boating, target shooting, rock collecting and riding off-road vehicles.

Not all of these activities are compatible, and many have not traditionally been rigorously managed. For example, target shooters sometimes bring objects like old appliances or furniture to use as improvised targets, then leave behind an unsightly mess. In response, the Phoenix District has designated recreational shooting sites where it provides targets and warns against shooting at objects containing glass or hazardous materials, as well as cactuses.

Skiing also can pose crowding challenges. Many downhill skiing facilities in the West operate on public land with permits from the managing agency – typically, the US Forest Service.

One example, Bogus Basin Mountain Recreation Area is a nonprofit ski slope 16 miles from Boise, Idaho. Demand surges on winter weekends with fresh powder, creating long lift lines and crowded slopes.

The mountain is open for 12 hours a day, and Bogus Basin uses creative pricing structures for lift tickets to spread crowds out. For example, it draws younger skiers with discounted night skiing and retired skiers during the week. As a result, the parking lot only filled up once in the 2022-2023 season.

Local governments can help find ways to balance access with creative crowd management. In Seattle, King County launched Trailhead Direct to provide transit-to-trails services from Seattle to the Cascade Mountains. This approach expands access to the outdoors for city residents and reduces traffic on busy Interstate 90 and crowding in trailhead parking lots.

Other towns have partnered with federal land agencies to maintain trail systems, like the Ridge to Rivers network outside Boise and the River Reach trails near Farmington, New Mexico. This helps the towns provide better nearby outdoor opportunities for residents and attract new businesses whose employees value quality of life. Creating corridors from the “backyard to the backcountry,” as the Bureau of Land Management puts it, can help create vibrant communities.

A less-extractive view of public lands

For many years, Western communities have viewed public lands as places to mine, log and graze sheep and cattle. Tensions between states and the federal government over federal land policy often reflect state resentment over decisions made in Washington, D.C. about local resources.

Now, land managers are seeing a pivot. While federal control will never be welcome in some areas, Western communities increasingly view federal lands as amenities and anchors for immense opportunities, including recreation and economic growth. For example, Idaho is investing $100 million for maintenance and expanded access on state lands, mirroring federal efforts.

As environmental law scholar Robert Keiter has pointed out, the U.S. has a lot of laws governing activities like logging, mining and energy development on public lands, but there’s little legal guidance for recreation. Instead, agencies, courts and presidents are developing what Keiter calls “a common law of outdoor recreation,” bit by bit. By addressing crowding and the environmental impacts of recreation, I believe local communities can help the U.S. move toward better stewardship of our nation’s awe-inspiring public lands.

Editor’s Note: Emily Wakild is the Cecil D. Andrus Endowed Professor for the Environment and Public Lands, Boise State University. She has received past funding from the National Science Foundation and the National Endowment for the Humanities.