Explosions hit critical road bridges linking occupied Crimea with parts of Kherson region under Russian control, Russian authorities say, as Ukraine escalates its targeting of Russian infrastructure and territory.

The blasts came on the same day the Moscow mayor said a drone had been shot down approaching the city and soon after Ukraine struck one of Russia’s biggest oil tankers with a sea drone as well as carrying out an attack on a major naval base.

The Russian-appointed acting head of Kherson region, Vladimir Saldo, says the missiles that hit two bridges in Crimea Sunday were all Storm Shadows, an air-launched long-range missile supplied to Ukraine by the UK.

Saldo said the two bridges were used by civilian and not military traffic. A rupture to a gas pipeline running alongside the bridge had cut off supplies to 20,000 residents of the city of Henichesk in Kherson.

Saldo said: “It’s this kind of sneaky missile attack that can’t be forgiven. It’s like a wounded animal snapping back.

“These strikes do not do anything for the special military operation that is currently underway … They have decided to take petty revenge on civilians and those who are now moving through the territory of the Kherson region.”

He added that no one was hurt and the bridge would reopen to traffic by the end of the day.

Earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said a Russian guided aerial bomb struck a blood transfusion center in the Kharkiv region Saturday.

He added that there were dead and wounded without providing any specific numbers.

A new wave of Russian missiles also struck sites across Ukraine overnight, most of which were shot down.

Ukrainian strikes inside Russia and Russia-controlled territory are an increasingly common feature of the war.

A string of drone strikes have peppered Russian cities including Moscow throughout the summer, while Friday saw the attack on a Russian port hundreds of miles from Ukrainian-held territory, leaving a warship listing.

Ukraine on Saturday pledged that there would be more of such attacks on Russian shipping and the Crimea bridge to come.

Any explosions that happen to Russian ships or the Crimean bridge are “an absolutely logical and effective step. Moreover, such special operations are conducted in the territorial waters of Ukraine and are completely legal,” said Head of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU) Vasyl Maliuk.

Maliuk said that if the Russians wanted such explosions to stop “they have the only option to do so – to leave the territorial waters of Ukraine and our land.”

On the tail of the discovery of a whale fossil that is the largest animal on record, researchers in Egypt announced the unearthing of one of the smallest early whales known to science. The find is also the oldest fully aquatic whale found in Africa, according to a new study.

At an estimated body weight of 412.3 pounds (187 kilograms) and length of 8.2 feet (2.5 meters), the newly documented species is comparable in size to a modern-day bottlenose dolphin.

Tutcetus rayanensis is a member of the extinct family of early whales known as basilosauridae — the first widespread group to become fully aquatic. What’s more, the diminutive specimen is also much older than other basilosaurids of the Eocene Epoch, the study published Thursday in the journal Communications Biology revealed.

The Eocene Epoch lasted from about 55.8 million to 33.9 million years ago, and the fossil dates back about 41 million years. The remains include an incomplete skull with jaws; the hyoid apparatus, or bones that sit at the base of the tongue; and the topmost vertebra of a small subadult embedded in limestone.

The discovery of the whale fossil led to the establishment of a new genus within the basilosauridae family. Tutcetus is named for Pharaoh Tutankhamen, who died when he was 18, and the Greek word for whale, cetus.

“The discovery of the new basilosaurid whale, Tutcetus rayanensis, has brought about a substantial shift in our understanding of cetacean life histories during the Eocene epoch,” said lead study author Mohammed S. Antar, a paleontologist at the Mansoura University Vertebrate Paleontology Center in Egypt, via email.

Unlike earlier basilosaurid finds, there are indications that, despite its relatively small size, the subadult T. rayanensis and, quite possibly, other basilosaurids could have grown rapidly. They “might have undergone faster developmental processes than previously believed, suggesting a diverse range of growth strategies within this group,” Antar said.

The discovery “helps clarify parts of the evolutionary tree and pushes back some of the changes we thought were happening,” said paleobiologist Nicholas Pyenson, curator of fossil marine mammals at the Smithsonian National Museum of Natural History in Washington, DC. He wasn’t involved with the study.

Additionally, T. rayanensis differs from other basilosaurids in that the newly discovered whale did not replace its first premolar tooth. “This novel insight adds another dimension to our understanding of basilosaurid whales and their evolutionary adaptations in response to various ecological pressures,” Antar said.

Whales in the desert

The whale fossil was uncovered in the Wadi El-Rayan area, which sits about 24.9 miles (40 kilometers) northeast of the Wadi Al-Hitan World Heritage Site in Egypt’s Western Desert. The area is one of the world’s “most productive fossil whale sites,” according to the study.

As paleontologists continue working in the Wadi El-Rayan area, there’s a good chance they’ll find even earlier fully aquatic whales. “Our phylogenetic analysis suggests that the transition to a fully aquatic lifestyle likely occurred a few million years earlier than the age of Tutcetus, but we do not yet have any fossil evidence that conclusively documents these predicted earlier forms,” said study coauthor Erik R. Seiffert, professor and chair of the department of integrative anatomical sciences at University of Southern California’s Keck School of Medicine, via email. Seiffert helped assess Tutcetus after the fossil’s discovery.

An Egyptian team of researchers

The study also advances Egypt in the field of paleontology and science overall. “(T)his discovery marks a significant achievement for Egyptian and African paleontology. Tutcetus rayanensis is the second whale species, following Phiomicetus anubis, to be discovered, described, and named by Egyptian paleontologists,” Antar said via email.

This development is a major shift from paleontology practices of decades past. One paleontologist not affiliated with the study made sure to highlight this change. “I think the most important thing (is) really how special it is that we have Egyptian-led science coming out of Egypt on Egyptian fossils. That has historically not been the case,” said marine paleobiologist Carlos Mauricio Peredo, an assistant professor of biological sciences at Miami University in Oxford, Ohio.

Hesham Sallam, professor at the American University in Cairo and founder of the Mansoura University Vertebrate Paleontology Center, is the study’s project leader. The center, which opened in 2010, was the first of its kind in Egypt.

Russia has successfully launched Luna 25, the country’s first lunar lander in 47 years.

The uncrewed spacecraft lifted off from the Vostochny Cosmodrome in Amur Oblast, Russia. Hitching a ride aboard a Soyuz-2 Fregat rocket, Luna 25 took flight at 8:10 a.m. local time Friday, or 7:10 p.m. ET Thursday.

Residents of a Russian village were temporarily evacuated Friday morning since there is a “one in a million chance” that one of Luna 25’s rocket stages could fall there, according to Reuters.

The spacecraft is expected to first enter an orbit around Earth before transferring to a lunar orbit and ultimately descending to the surface of the moon. Russia’s last lunar lander, Luna 24, landed on the moon on August 18, 1976.

Luna 25 and India’s Chandrayaan-3 mission, which launched in mid-July, are both expected to land at the lunar south pole on August 23, and it’s a race to see which country will land first, according to Reuters. But Roscomos said the two missions are not expected to cause a problem for each other because their specific landing zones differ, Reuters reported.

Luna 25’s journey

Luna 25, also called the Luna-Glob-Lander, will study the composition of the moon’s polar soil and the plasma and dust contained in the very thin lunar exosphere, or the moon’s scant atmosphere, for one year.

The four-legged lander includes landing rockets, propellant tanks, solar panels, computers and a robotic arm equipped with a scoop to collect lunar samples, as well as a suite of instruments to study the samples and exosphere, according to NASA.

Initially, Roscosmos and the European Space Agency planned to partner on Luna 25, as well as Luna 26, Luna 27 and the ExoMars rover.

But that partnership ceased in April 2022 after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, and the ESA Council moved to “discontinue cooperative activities with Russia.”

The future of moon exploration

Meanwhile, Chandrayaan-3, which includes a lander, rover and propulsion module, lifted off on July 14 and entered lunar orbit last weekend.

The mission is India’s second attempt to land at the lunar south pole after Chandrayaan-2 crashed into the moon in September 2019. If successful, the latest mission would make India only the fourth country to achieve the complicated feat, behind the United States, the former Soviet Union and China. Once on the surface, Chandrayaan-3 will spend a couple of weeks conducting a series of scientific experiments to learn more about the moon’s composition.

NASA plans to land a woman and a person of color on the moon for the first time at the lunar south pole in late 2025 during the Artemis III mission.

The reason so many missions have been designed to explore this region of the moon is due to its potential resources. Deep, permanently shadowed craters at the lunar south pole may contain ice that could be used for drinking water, oxygen and fuel — a key consideration as agencies like NASA look to sustainably explore the moon for longer periods of time in the future.

“We’re going to see several spacecraft, some perhaps from other nations, that are going to be landing on the south pole in the near future,” said NASA Administrator Bill Nelson during a news conference Tuesday. “There’s a renewed interest in the moon and of course it’s there because the potential of water. We’re going back to learn to live in a deep space environment for long periods of time, so that we can go to Mars and return safely.”

When asked about the upcoming Luna 25 launch, Nelson said “we wish them well,” noting that NASA has had a cooperative relationship with its Russian counterpart dating back to the Soviet era since 1975.

Ecuadorians have found themselves in the middle of a bloody turf war as rival criminal organizations mete out brutal and often public shows of violence, battling to control drug trafficking routes that cross the Andean nation.

Reports of dismemberments, prison riots, bombings and the killing of journalists, judges and mayors have dominated the headlines, and many Ecuadorians are opting to leave the country – the country’s civil registry even extended its hours this year as it reported rising demand for passports and identity cards.

In December 2022, US Customs and Border Patrol encountered more than 16,000 Ecuadorians at the US southern border – 24 times the number than the same month a year before.

But the high-profile assassination on Wednesday of presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio could be a turning point for the country that has so far struggled to control the bloodshed.

“For years and the Ecuadorian authorities have failed to respond (to the security crisis) and this should be the wake up call to finally take action to protect the population – given this rise of organized crime groups that are terrorizing large parts of Ecuador,” he added.

Drug fueled violence

Ecuador, home to the Galapagos islands and a tourist-friendly dollar economy, was once known as an “island of peace,” nestled between two of the world’s largest narcotics producers, Peru and Colombia.

But Ecuador’s deep ports have made it a key transit point for drugs making its way to consumers in the US and Europe. And its dollarized economy also makes it a strategic location for traffickers seeking to launder money.

The sharp uptick of violence that has transformed Ecuador into one of the most dangerous countries in the region coincides with a cocaine boom.

Global production levels are expected to hit historic levels this year, said Laura Lizarazo, a senior analyst for the Andean region at political risk consultancy Control Risks. “The market is flooded with cocaine and criminal organizations are adapting to explore this over-production,” she said.

Economic insecurity has helped drive some Ecuadorians to crime, and others to flee the country. Over half Ecuador’s workforce is in the informal economy, meaning that millions of people do not have a contract and benefit packages to rely on in hard times – a situation that was further exacerbated by the pandemic.

Floundering authorities

Security and state forces have been badly unprepared for the rise of criminal groups in the country. “Some state forces lack proper training equipment and strategy to effectively address threat, they also have limited state capacity to effectively charge and prosecute criminal organizations,” Lizarazo said.

Ecuador’s increasingly embattled President Guillermo Lasso has implemented several states of emergencies that have done little to tamp the bloodletting. At one-point, he authorized civilians to use guns, to the consternation of security companies, say critics.

Widespread discontent with the rocketing crime rates tanked Lasso’s popularity this year, paving the way for him to call for snap general elections on August 20, in which he is not a candidate.

Corruption allegations have also swirled around Ecuador’s justice and security system. Last year, the US withdrew visas from high-ranking officers of Ecuadorian state security forces, alleged to be linked to drug trafficking, as well as several judges and lawyers.

Lizarazo said graft has penetrated the police, military, the judiciary and even the executive, meaning the next administration has deep rooted challenges to address once in power.

Looming election

The murder of Villavicencio – a former journalist with a long record of exposing corruption – could impact the presidential vote on August 20, say analysts, as many political hopefuls in the region seek to emulate the mano dura policies of El Salvador’s leader Nayib Bukele.

The race’s frontrunner, former lawmaker Luisa González who is affiliated with the country’s former leftwing President Rafael Correa, has been more measured in her approach to crime, and has called for the judiciary to be reinforced to help with prosecutions.

Other contenders, like businessman and political outsider Jan Topic, are vowing a crackdown; an approach that could prove particularly appealing now.

But all candidates face a disillusioned public. Ecuadorian voters have high levels of apathy, dissatisfaction, and mistrust of the political system, with up to 60% of the population not knowing the names of the candidates, according to experts.

“Now that this awful development (the assassination) has put the presidential campaign,” and security crisis back in the spotlight, Lizarazo said, voters may feel empowered to vote for the most eye-catching approach to end the violence.

China’s civilian spy agency has exposed a Chinese national for allegedly providing sensitive military information to the CIA, the latest in a string of highly public espionage accusations between Washington and Beijing.

In a statement Friday, China’s Ministry of State Security said the suspect, identified by his surname Zeng, worked for an unidentified Chinese military industrial group in a role which gave him access to important classified information.

The ministry said Zeng, 52, was sent by his employer to advance his studies in Italy. While there he was allegedly approached by a US embassy official, and they gradually developed a “close relationship” through activities such as dinner parties, outings and watching operas, according to the statement.

The ministry claimed that as their engagement deepened, the US official revealed himself to be a CIA officer. Zeng was allegedly offered “a huge amount” of money and immigration to the US for his family, in exchange for sensitive information about the Chinese military, the statement said.

It said Zeng signed an espionage agreement with the US and received assessment as well as training.

Upon completing his studies, Zeng returned to China and allegedly met with CIA personnel multiple times to provide “a large amount of core intelligence,” according to the statement.

The ministry said it had taken “compulsory measures” against Zeng after obtaining evidence of his espionage activities in an investigation. The case has been handed to the prosecutors for review and indictment, it added.

China’s announcement about the alleged CIA spy came a week after two US Navy sailors in California were arrested for allegedly providing sensitive US military information to Chinese intelligence officers.

China’s Ministry of State Security is a civilian agency that oversees intelligence and counterintelligence both within China and overseas. Its remit has encouraged analogies to a combined CIA and FBI, but is far more secretive about its work – without even a public website describing its activities.

But recently, the ministry has taken a higher profile. On August 1, it launched a public account on Wechat, China’s super app, calling on “all members of society” to join its fight against espionage and offering rewards and protection for those who provide information.

Friday’s statement about Zeng’s case was also released on the ministry’s Wechat account.

China’s military also has its own intelligence agency.

The United States and China have long spied on each other but the recent deterioration in ties between the world’s two largest economies has supercharged this rivalry.

China’s Communist Party rulers have long pushed the narrative that “foreign forces” are trying to undermine the country’s rise while Xi Jinping, China’s most assertive and authoritarian leader in a generation, has made state security his top priority.

Last month, China introduced a revised version of its already sweeping counter-espionage law, which further expanded the definition of espionage.

CIA operations in China suffered a staggering setback starting in 2010, according to The New York Times, when the Chinese government killed or imprisoned more than a dozen sources over two years.

The 2023 Women’s World Cup quarterfinals get underway with two mouthwatering matches on Friday.

First up, it’s a clash between European heavyweights Spain and the Netherlands, before Japan takes on Sweden for a place in the semifinals.

How to watch

In the US, matches will air on your local Fox channel. You can also stream matches by signing in with your TV provider at foxsports.com or on the Fox Sports app. Telemundo and Peacock are providing Spanish-language coverage.

Seven Network and Optus Sport are broadcasting matches in Australia and the BBC and ITV have the rights in the United Kingdom.

A full breakdown of media rights holders in each country is available on the FIFA website.

Netherlands vs. Spain

A beaten finalist in 2019, the Netherlands will likely be feeling very confident of going one better this year after an impressive World Cup campaign so far.

The Oranje is unbeaten in Australia and New Zealand and has conceded just one goal during the tournament, coming in the 1-1 group stage draw against the United States – also the only game it has failed to win.

The talents of Jill Roord, Lieke Martens and Daniëlle van de Donk are enough to strike fear into the heart of any national team, while forward Lineth Beerensteyn will be buoyed after scoring her first goal of the tournament against South Africa.

Spain has both dazzled and disappointed its fans this tournament, racking up high-scoring wins over Zambia, Costa Rica and then Switzerland in the last-16.

However, the team’s low point came in a 4-0 demolition against Japan in the final group stage match, a game that laid bare La Roja’s weaknesses.

Spain will likely chalk it up to a off day, while others will point to the sobering defeat as proof the team isn’t yet up to level of the true title contenders Down Under.

Japan vs. Sweden

Japan has arguably been the standout performer of this World Cup so far. Alongside Sweden’s dramatic, penalty shootout elimination of the US, Japan’s huge victory over Spain was perhaps the most eye-catching win of the tournament.

The team followed up that win with another hugely impressive victory in the last-16, beating one-time champion Norway 3-1 with a dominant performance.

Clinical forward Hinata Miyazawa, currently playing in Japan’s domestic league, has been the revelation of the tournament and currently leads the Golden Boot race with five goals in four matches.

In the last-16, Sweden did what no team had been able to do since Japan in the 2011 World Cup final: beat the United States.

If you can beat the two-time reigning champion, you can beat anyone, and Sweden will now rightly be feeling confident it can go all the way and win a first Women’s World Cup title.

This talented group has regularly felt the pressure of being labeled the country’s ‘Golden Generation’ and came so close to living up to that moniker two years ago, losing to Canada in the gold medal match at the rescheduled 2020 Olympic Games.

Can the three-time World Cup runner-up now get over the final hurdle?

Phil Mickelson considered a $400,000 bet on the 2012 Ryder Cup – in which he was participating – according to a book that will be released later this month by professional gambler Billy Walters.

An excerpt was published Thursday by Fire Pit Collective and Golf Digest.

In the excerpt, Walters said he was in what he described as a gambling partnership with Mickelson for five years, ending in the spring of 2014.

After that partnership, Walters said, he learned more about the golfer’s sports gambling from “two very reliable sources,” but he does not identify them.

Citing his own betting records and additional records provided by his sources, Walters alleges that between 2010 and 2014 Mickelson “made a staggering 7,065 wagers on football, basketball, and baseball.”

“In 2011 alone, he made 3,154 bets—an average of nearly nine per day,” the except said of Mickelson.

“Based on our relationship and what I’ve since learned from others, Phil’s gambling losses approached not $40 million as has been previously reported, but much closer to $100 million,” Walters wrote. “In all, he wagered a total of more than $1 billion during the past three decades.

“The only other person I know who surpassed that kind of volume,” Walters wrote, “is me.”

In a Thursday post on X, formerly known as Twitter, Mikelson denied betting on the 2012 Ryder Cup.

“While it is well known that I always enjoy a friendly wager on the course, I would never undermine the integrity of the game,” he said. “I have also been very open about my gambling addiction. I have previously conveyed my remorse, took responsibility, have gotten help, have been fully committed to therapy that has positively impacted me and I feel good about where I am now.”

‘Don’t you remember what happened to Pete Rose?’

One of the more stunning allegations Walters makes is that Mickelson called him in September 2012 to ask him to bet $400,000 on the US team to beat Europe in the Ryder Cup. Mickelson was a member of that US squad.

“Have you lost your f—— mind? Don’t you remember what happened to Pete Rose?” Walters writes in the book that he answered. “You’re seen as a modern-day Arnold Palmer. You’d risk all that for this? I want no part of it.”

“Alright, alright,” Mickelson replied, according to the excerpt.

Walters wrote he doesn’t know if Mickelson ever placed that bet. Europe went on to beat the US.

In a social media post dated June 2, Mickelson said in response to someone else’s post, “Haven’t gambled in years. Almost a billionaire now.”

Mickelson’s gambling has been well documented by the media, and he has himself previously talked about his struggles with sports gambling.

In June 2022, Mickelson told Sports Illustrated: “Gambling has been part of my life ever since I can remember. But about a decade ago is when I would say it became reckless. It’s embarrassing. I don’t like that people know. The fact is I’ve been dealing with it for some time.”

In that interview, Mickelson said his wife, Amy, has been very supportive “with me and the process.”

“We’re at place after many years where I feel comfortable with where that is,” Mickelson told Sports Illustrated interview. “It isn’t a threat to me or my financial security. It was just a number of poor decisions.”

‘Most dangerous sports bettor in Nevada’

Walters, whose risky bets earned him the title of the “most dangerous sports bettor in Nevada,” was convicted of insider trading charges in a federal court in New York in April 2017.

The legendary gambler, who prosecutors said made more than $43 million by making trades on inside information about Dean Foods, was sentenced to five years in prison, according to the office of the United States Attorney for the Southern District of New York.

In 2021, former President Donald Trump commuted Walters’ sentence.

Walters suggested in the book, according to Golf Digest, that Mickelson was to blame for the prison sentence.

“Phil Mickelson, one of the most famous people in the world and a man I once considered a friend, refused to tell a simple truth that he shared with the FBI and could have kept me out of prison,” Walters wrote. “I never told him I had inside information about stocks and he knows it. All Phil had to do was publicly say it. He refused.”

A year before his conviction, Walters made headlines when Mickelson was ordered to pay the Securities and Exchange Commission $1 million in fines for profiting off a tip from Walters about Dean Foods.

Mickelson was named as a “relief defendant” in the case, meaning he benefited from wrongdoing but was not accused of any illegal act.

Controversy over Saudi-backed tour

Mickelson, one of the most successful and popular golfers, is a six-time major winner.

The superstar came under fire last year over his involvement in the controversial LIV Golf, the world’s most lucrative golf tour.

Mickelson was quoted from a 2021 interview with author Alan Shipnuck for his book, “Phil: The Rip-Roaring (and Unauthorized!) Biography of Golf’s Most Colorful Superstar,” as saying that he would consider joining the proposed Super League because it is a “once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to reshape how the PGA Tour operates.”

Shipnuck quoted Mickelson as saying disparaging things about Saudi Arabia’s human rights record and asserting that the kingdom killed journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

The LIV Golf series is backed by Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, which is a sovereign wealth fund chaired by Mohammed bin Salman, the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia and the man who a US intelligence report named as responsible for approving the operation that led to the 2018 murder of Khashoggi. Bin Salman has denied involvement in Khashoggi’s murder.

In June, the US-based PGA Tour announced it was partnering with LIV Golf, ending a long-running feud within the men’s professional game.

Groups representing families and survivors of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks were outraged by the partnership.

The allegations of Saudi government complicity with the attacks have long been the subject of dispute in Washington. Fifteen of the 19 al Qaeda terrorists who hijacked four planes were Saudi nationals, but the Saudi government has denied any involvement in the attacks.

The 9/11 Commission established by Congress said in 2004 it had found “no evidence that the Saudi government as an institution or senior Saudi officials individually funded” al Qaeda.

Record-high ocean temperatures are setting the stage for an active Atlantic hurricane season with explosive tropical development, but just one thing is missing: storms. There have been no tropical storms in the Atlantic basin in nearly a month, and none so far this year have come close to the United States.

But the busiest stretch of hurricane season kicks off in less than a week. And with ocean heat running high, experts are urging people to get their safety plans in place and prepare for tropical trouble that could start within the next couple of weeks.

A growing expert consensus is now forecasting an uptick in hurricane activity. An updated outlook from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on Thursday called for an above-average hurricane season – an increase from the near-normal forecast it released in May.

“We have increased the chance for above normal activity to 60% from 30%,” Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane season forecaster with NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, said in a news release. “The chances of a below normal season are now at only 15%.”

NOAA forecasters join other experts in the field that have recently increased their hurricane risk outlooks, including researchers at Colorado State University.

The forecasts are leaning on several climatological factors, but also on exceptionally warm oceans, which provide storms the fuel needed to explode in strength and even undergo rapid intensification. NOAA said sea surface temperatures were warmer than anticipated, and a major factor in increasing the odds of an active season.

“Considering those factors, the updated outlook calls for more activity, so we urge everyone to prepare now for the continuing season,” Rosencrans said.

Global ocean temperatures are at their highest levels on record. This is especially the case in the Atlantic, where sea surface temperatures are much above average in areas where hurricanes typically form. Notably, sea surface temperatures in parts of the Gulf of Mexico are in the middle 80s to low 90s Fahrenheit – well above the 80 degrees needed to sustain tropical storm development. Water temperatures have even recently climbed above 100 degrees in shallower water closer to the Florida coast.

Even with the abundance of very warm water, no tropical development has occurred in the Atlantic since Hurricane Don dissipated in late July.

Despite the lack of US impacts so far, there have been five named storms, putting this season slightly above the climatological normal for tropical activity.

And there have been recent signs that the tropical Atlantic could soon spring to life. Several thunderstorm areas have come close to developing, only to be torn apart by two things: wind shear, which is the change in strength in winds in different levels of the atmosphere, and dry air, which can cut off a storm’s lifeblood – its thunderstorm activity.

Wind shear and dry air have largely won out over warm ocean water over the past few weeks, suppressing hurricane activity. This is not altogether unusual as wind shear is typically strong at the start of hurricane season and gradually begins to ease through July and into August.

But just how much of a reduction in wind shear and dry air occurs headed into the typical peak of hurricane season is in question. Notably, El Niño is present and growing in the Pacific Ocean – an ocean and weather pattern that typically promotes an increase in wind shear and makes Atlantic hurricane seasons less active.

Rosencrans said El Niño’s influence had yet to arrive in the Atlantic, but could do so in September. He said there were already signs of wind shear lessening over an area in the Atlantic where storms typically form and that lower than normal wind shear was expected for the season and factored into expectations for an increase in activity.

When wind shear lessens and dry air exits, hurricane season will be off to the races with extreme ocean temperatures ready to fuel stronger storms.

Take last year for instance: Two storms – Alex and Colin – had already impacted the US by this time last year, but Colin’s dissipation was quickly followed by a lengthy inactive stretch where no additional storms formed in July or August. But once September arrived, along with it came a quick uptick in activity that culminated in devastating Hurricane Ian slamming the US to end the month.

Tropical activity spikes across the Atlantic from mid-August to mid-October due to a relative minimum in wind shear and a relative maximum in sea surface temperatures. This period alone accounts for an astounding 96% of all major hurricane days in a season, according to NOAA.

Even if tropical activity doesn’t pick up considerably in the next few weeks, any storm that does manage to form over very warm water with no wind shear to inhibit it has the potential to explode in strength and turn dangerous fast. And with hot water in place near highly populated areas of the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, disaster can quickly strike if a tropical system is able to tap into that abundant energy.

Devastating wildfires in the Hawaiian Islands – coupled with vast communication gaps created by the interruption of services – have many travelers in limbo as they struggle to leave the especially hard-hit island of Maui or reschedule imminent travel plans.

Here’s what we know right now about Hawaii travel.

Which islands are affected?

Fires on parts of the islands of Maui and Hawaii were burning Wednesday, creating dangerous conditions in some parts of those two islands. The most harrowing conditions on Wednesday appeared to be in West Maui in the town of Lahaina.

A blaze engulfed the historic town, which is a popular tourist destination, and the town was evacuated. Communication networks have been crippled, and it’s still unclear how much the fires have impacted the surrounding coast, where numerous resorts are located.

Travel adviser Jim Bendt, owner of Pique Travel Design in Minneapolis/St. Paul, Minnesota, also noted the communications challenges. Bendt had been in contact Wednesday with people in Hawaii.

Some areas of the Kohala Coast on the island of Hawaii were evacuated because of fires, according to the county’s website. Mandatory evacuations there were lifted Wednesday evening. Fire hazards are noted here. By late Wednesday, state officials had not discouraged travel to that island.

How are travelers getting out of Maui?

Maui’s Kahului Airport (OGG) is open, the Hawaii Department of Transportation posted on social media platform X, formerly known as Twitter.

The HDOT urged patience at the airport.

“All airlines are sending additional support to aid in getting people off island,” the DOT said in another post. “@TSA_Pacific Hawaii leadership will be adding resources to support OGG.”

Hawaiian Airlines added three additional late-night flights on Wednesday to Honolulu from Maui’s Kahului Airport (OGG) to help evacuate travelers affected by the fires. The airline said it also added six additional flights earlier in the day and planned to add four extra flights from Maui to Honolulu on Thursday.

“Hawaiian is continuing to offer reduced $19 main cabin fares out of Maui to facilitate urgent travel needs,” the airline said in a statement.

Nonessential inbound travel to Maui is strongly discouraged, Ed Sniffen, director of the Hawaii State Department of Transportation, said Wednesday at a news conference.

About 2,000 people stayed overnight Tuesday at the airport in Maui, Sniffen said.

Over 11,000 people were flown out of Maui on Wednesday, Sniffen said in a press conference Wednesday evening.

Sniffen said roads to the airport in Maui have reopened and they are expecting more travelers to fly out on Thursday. The county is also running buses to help get travelers to the airport.

The Hawaiʻi Tourism Authority also said on Wednesday afternoon that visitors who are in Maui on nonessential travel are being asked to leave the island.

What about travelers who have upcoming plans to visit Maui?

As noted above, government officials are discouraging nonessential travel to Maui.

Travel adviser Jim Bendt is following that guidance. Bendt said Pique Travel Design is advising clients traveling to Maui in the next week to reschedule their trips to “help ease the burden on local infrastructure.”

Pique Travel will be working with its partners on the island to waive or minimize cancellation and change fees, he said.

Hawaiian Airlines, Alaska Airlines, American Airlines, Delta Air Lines, Southwest Airlines and United Airlines all are offering travel waivers for travel to Maui allowing passengers to change plans without penalty.

“Guests with non-urgent travel inquiries are encouraged to call back later so that we can assist those with immediate needs,” Hawaiian Airlines posted on social platform X. The airline urged travelers to check their flight status before going to the airport.

For clients who had plans to visit Maui for part of their Hawaii trips, Bendt’s company is looking at finding alternatives for them on other islands such as Kauai or Oahu.

“For future travel, we are waiting on damage assessments to determine the best path forward but don’t anticipate canceling trips once it’s safe to return,” Bendt said.

In its travel guidance, the Hawaiʻi Tourism Authority specifically called out West Maui as the area that near-term travelers need to avoid.

“Visitors with travel plans to stay in other parts of Maui and the Kohala Coast of Hawaiʻi Island in the coming weeks are encouraged to contact their hotels for updated information and how their travel plans may be affected,” the tourism management authority said in an update Wednesday.

She’s been unable to communicate with the hotel they had booked in the resort area of Ka’anapali, which is near one of the fire outbreaks. “I’ve tried to phone them several times, but the line is absolutely dead. I sent them a text message but no reply so far.”

Their return flight to Germany is scheduled out of Maui. Kappelar anticipates trying to fly out of Daniel Inouye International Airport on Oahu instead.

Can I get a refund for upcoming lodging bookings on Maui?

Some information has been posted to specific property websites. Hyatt Regency Maui Resort and Spa, located north of Lahaina, is closed to arrivals and will not be accepting guests through August 13, according to a post online. Kaanapali Alii, a Destination by Hyatt Residence is not accepting bookings or “able to honor upcoming reservations for arrivals through 11 August 2023,” its website says, directing guests with upcoming bookings to a global call center with questions.

The Lahaina Shores Beach Resort is advising guests to contact its reservations team at 888-524-5098 to reschedule.

Outrigger Resorts has posted an FAQ about Maui that includes instructions for guests who can’t get back to their resort to check out. Guests with upcoming stays on Maui are encouraged to rebook at one of the brand’s other properties on Oahu, Hawaii Island or Kauai. The FAQ dated August 9 did not address refunds. Hawaii Island guests are directed to the county website for information.

Many large hotel companies have more flexible cancellation policies brought in with the Covid-19 pandemic.

Airbnb’s extenuating circumstances policy is currently in effect for parts of the state of Hawaii, including all of Maui. It allows guests and hosts to cancel penalty-free, and guests with eligible stays will receive full refunds.

VRBO has not yet responded to a request for information about bookings in affected areas.

What about visiting other islands?

Bendt said travelers with plans to visit other Hawaiian islands won’t need to change their plans.

“Hotels and tours are operating as normal,” he said.

Another travel adviser, Norman Aynbinder, who is president and CEO of Excursionist in Miami, also noted the limited range of the current fires.

“It is important to note that Oahu, Lanai, and Kauai have no active fires and that the fires on the Big Island are limited to the Kohala Coast and do not impact most of the touring on the rest of the island,” Aynbinder said via email.

The tourism authority noted that tourism to “Kauaʻi, Oʻahu, Molokaʻi, Lānaʻi, and other parts of Hawaiʻi Island are not affected at this time.”

More broadly, what’s next for travel to Maui?

For now, it’s a wait-and-see situation.

“Natural disasters are, by nature, quick-moving. If you have a trip to Maui a few weeks from now, your best bet for now is to wait and see if the fires get contained,” said Scott Keyes, founder of travel site Going.com.

Keyes said that “there’s no added benefit to canceling a trip a few weeks in advance versus a few days in advance.”

And canceling could have a big impact on the island.

“The potential loss of tourism revenue could be another devasting blow to the local community that relies on it,” Bendt said.

“As of today, the tourism infrastructure outside of Lahaina has not been damaged and will be open for business,” Bendt said. “Once officials have said it’s safe to travel back to Maui the best thing people can do is not cancel their trips.”