“Hello,” says the news presenter, as she effortlessly switches from Spanish to English to give her audience a summary of the day’s biggest stories.

With her clear intonation, smart appearance, and friendly-yet-serious expression, she seems the very image of a news anchor. Except, perhaps, for her name.

As she introduces herself as The Girl (“La Chama”) – and her co-presenter announces himself as The Dude (“El Pana”) – the viewer gets the first hint there is more to this newscast than meets the eye. Then she adds, “Before we continue, in case you haven’t noticed, we want to tell you that we are not real.”

Welcome to “Venezuela Retweets,” an AI-anchored news show created by a group of media organizations who want to shelter their real-life journalists from a crackdown launched by strongman Nicolas Maduro’s government following July’s disputed election.

While in much of the world, journalists view the use of artificial intelligence as a looming threat to livelihoods, in Venezuela – where showing your face on a news report can conceivably land you in jail – many view it more favorably; as protection.

“Right now, being a journalist in Venezuela is a bit like being a firefighter,” explained Carlos Eduardo Huertas, a Colombian media operator who coordinated the launch of “Venezuela Retweets.”

“You still need to attend the fire even though it’s dangerous. The Girl and The Dude want to be instruments for our firefighters: we don’t want to replace journalists, but to protect them.”

After all, as The Dude chimes in reassuringly in one clip, “Although we were generated by AI, our content is real, verified, of high quality, and created by journalists.”

Brave news world

Prompting this leap into a brave new world of technology is that real-life journalists in the country have found reporting the news an increasingly dangerous business since Maduro’s controversial reelection – a result that has been hotly disputed by the opposition and caused widespread skepticism abroad.

According to Espacio Publico, a Venezuelan organization that tracks freedom of the press, at least 16 journalists have been detained in the government crackdown that followed the vote and the nationwide protests that erupted after it. All except four of them remain behind bars, some facing charges spanning from terrorism and incitement to hatred, while others are unsure even of what they are accused. Others still have seen their passports suspended.

The United Nations has talked of a “climate of fear,” while many Caracas-based journalists have taken to working in pairs, sharing their whereabouts with loved ones and memorizing their lawyers’ numbers just in case.

It was against this backdrop that the idea for “Venezuela Retweets” formed, explained “Roberto,” the managing editor of a digital publication in Caracus that is part of the collective behind it.

Among their other considerable skills as newscasters, The Girl and The Dude simply have no fear.

A unique format

Restrictions on freedom of speech in Venezuela are nothing new: Government censors have long monitored radio and television programs, threatening to take them off air if they voice anti-Maduro content, while access to paper is heavily regulated for print publications, and local internet providers blacklist the URLs of news portals non-aligned with the government, like Roberto’s.

Because of these restrictions, most Venezuelans get their news via social media, with WhatsApp chains being the considered the “most useful” information channel, according to a report published in March by Consultores21, a Caracas-based opinion pollster.

This is where the format of Venezuela Retweets comes into its own, as it is designed specifically to be shared on social media. Rather than focus on live broadcasts or written articles, its digitally created avatars simply read the news in clips that can be posted on the likes of Instagram and Facebook, or downloaded and forwarded on WhatsApp and other messaging services. (Sharing the clips on X is more problematic, as Venezuela banned the use of the app altogether when Maduro accused tech tycoon Elon Musk of being part of a neo-fascist plot to overthrow his government.)

While this makes it harder to monitor how much traffic Venezuela Retweets generates, it adds yet another layer of security because it makes the video harder to track, according to Roberto.

An artificial sense of security?

Despite the enthusiasm around the project, some remain skeptical that hiding behind an avatar will be enough to keep the long arm of Maduro’s government at bay.

“It’s nonsense to even think for a heartbeat that it’s a safety tool. It’s a clever idea, and I hope it lasts forever,” said Shelly Palmer, a professor of Advanced Media at Syracuse University who has worked extensively on artificial intelligence.

Organizations involved in freedom of the press in Cuba and Nicaragua have gotten in touch, he said, signaling a widespread interest for using AI as a freedom of expression tool in authoritarian environments.

That does not mean Roberto, Huerta and the many journalists whose work goes into the reports of The Girl and The Dude are blind to the risks. While Roberto is keen to emphasize the difference the initiative has made to newsroom morale, he acknowledges what he and his staff are up against.

“We still live in Venezuela and at the end of the day we’re at risk despite all the measures we can take,” Roberto said.

It’s a risk that cannot be underestimated. As regular listeners to The Girl and The Dude will know, the past two weeks alone saw the detention of another two reporters.

The Ukrainian drones targeted the Russian defense ministry-operated warehouse in the city of Toropets, which was storing Iskander tactical missile systems, Tochka-U tactical missile systems, guided aerial bombs and artillery ammunition, the source said.

Large fires broke out from the debris of drones repelled by local air defenses, the regional government said, prompting the governor, Igor Rudenya, to order a partial evacuation of the area during the early hours of Wednesday.

NORSAR, which has been using seismic monitors since 2022 to evaluate the impact of the war in Ukraine, is currently analyzing the preliminary data to capture the full extent of the blast, Dando added.

Satellite images taken by Maxar Technologies on Wednesday morning showed huge plumes of smoke rising up from several depot buildings, as well as extensive damage to the buildings and nearby forest.

Fires continue to burn, as seen in the Maxar Technologies images.

Russian state news agency TASS reported that a drone attack had been launched on the city of Toropets overnight causing a fire “due to the fall of debris,” without specifically mentioning any targeting of a weapons facility.

Affected residents, including 11 children, have already been evacuated to the settlements of Kunya and Velikiye Luki in the neighbouring Pskov region, TASS said. No civilians are thought to have been injured in the drone attack, the news agency reported, citing Rudenya.

“Now we are engaged in evacuating the population, residents, maintaining public order,” Rudenya said in a later video statement, stressing that multiple emergency service units were involved in the response.

Rudenya made the call to evacuate so emergency services at the scene could work fully to bring the blazes under control, the local government said in a post on its official Telegram channel.

Toropets is located around 300 miles from the Ukrainian border and about 250 miles west of Moscow.

Ukraine has been pushing its key allies, including the United States, to give the go-ahead to carry out missile strikes on targets deeper into Russian territory. Last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned NATO members that lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range missile systems would mean entering into war with Russia itself.

A woman has died following a shark attack in the Atlantic Ocean near the Canary Islands, a Spanish archipelago off the northwest coast of Africa.

She was transferred by helicopter to a hospital on the Canary island of Gran Canaria, where she died, the spokesperson added.

She was traveling on board a catamaran that sailed from the city of Las Palmas on Gran Canaria on Saturday, according to the reports.

Reuters reports that the woman was swimming beside the catamaran at the time of the attack.

Shark attacks near the Canary Islands are rare, according to the Florida Museum of Natural History’s International Shark Attack File, with only six confirmed incidents on record.

The Canary Islands have long been a popular holiday destination, thanks to their temperate year-round climate.

Preliminary information suggested that there were between 15 and 20 explosions in southern suburbs of Beirut, and a further 15 to 20 blasts in southern Lebanon, the source said.

“The Army Command asks citizens not to gather in areas witnessing security incidents to allow the arrival of medical teams,” the Lebanese Army warned citizens in a post on X.

Hezbollah on Tuesday vowed to respond to what it called an Israeli attack, which killed multiple people and injured thousands across Lebanon on Tuesday when pagers belonging to members of the militant group exploded almost simultaneously.

This is a breaking story. More details soon…

Catherine, Princess of Wales has held her first engagement since revealing that she has completed her chemotherapy treatment.

Kate, 42 – who is married to the heir to the British throne, Prince William – resumed work by hosting a meeting at Windsor Castle on Tuesday.

“The Princess of Wales, Joint Patron, the Royal Foundation of The Prince and Princess of Wales, this afternoon held an Early Years Meeting at Windsor Castle,” according to a post in the Court Circular, which officially documents events carried out by the royal family either in public or behind palace walls.

Kate provided the health update last week confirming she was “doing what I can to stay cancer free” and starting a “new phase of recovery with a renewed sense of hope and appreciation of life.”

In a deeply personal video message, which showing the family enjoying the English summer together, the princess said the past nine months had been challenging but that “I am, however, looking forward to being back at work and undertaking a few more public engagements in the coming months when I can.”

No further details of the meeting were recorded in the Court Circular but Kate has for years been focused on early childhood development, which aides have previously described as her “life’s work.”

In 2021, she launched the Royal Foundation Centre for Early Childhood and one her flagship initiatives is her “Shaping Us” public awareness campaign, which seeks to improve our collective understanding of how critical the first five years of life are in shaping the adults we grow up to be.

Kate had been receiving a course of chemotherapy for an unspecified form of cancer since February and has only made a few public appearances in the months since.

She joined the family for the King’s birthday parade, known as Trooping the Colour, in June and received a standing ovation a month later when she attended the Wimbledon men’s singles final with her daughter, Princess Charlotte.

During her treatment, Kate is known to have been working from home, taking meetings with her team and representatives from her early-years center.

While she will continue to focus on her recovery in the months ahead, she is understood to be resuming a light schedule of public engagements for the remainder of the year.

She is also expected to attend the annual Remembrance Day service at the Cenotaph in London in November, honoring those who have served in war.

Huge crowds of devotees gathered across India this month to celebrate the Hindu festival Ganesh Chaturthi, marking the birth of the deity Ganesha, the elephant-headed, round-bellied god of prosperity and wisdom.

The 10-day festivities saw worshipers hoist elaborately painted clay idols of Ganesha towards the sky and submerge them in water as part of the traditions associated with one of India’s most vibrant and beloved festivals, celebrated by Hindus worldwide.

In India’s western Maharashtra state, which includes Mumbai, the home of Bollywood, the streets came alive as devotees danced to blaring drums and under clouds of colored powder filling the air.

Ganesha, whose name translates to “Lord of the People,” is known for his ability to remove obstacles and is generally worshipped before new beginnings.

He is typically depicted holding Indian sweets as a sign of the abundance and prosperity that he bestows on devotees. His vehicle, known as a ‘vahana,’ is the large Indian bandicoot rat, another symbol of Ganesha’s ability to overcome anything.

Ganesh Chaturthi falls each year in late summer, during the Bhadra month in the Hindu calendar, and marks a celebratory time of year when families gather. It began this year on September 7 and concluded on Tuesday.

It began with worshippers placing idols of Ganesha, anointed with red sandalwood paste and yellow and red flowers, on raised platforms in their homes and in outdoor public spaces. Devotees then perform special prayers and chant hymns as part of the rituals seeking his blessings.

Ganesha’s favorite foods – coconut, jaggery (a type of sugar), and modak (sweet dumplings) – are offered to him as gifts.

As the festival ends, the Ganesha idols are carried to local bodies of water in a parade where they are then immersed in water. It is believed to allow Ganesha to return to his celestial home after spending time in the earthly realm during Ganesh Chaturthi, a symbol of the impermanence of life.

Hundreds of pagers carried by Hezbollah members in Lebanon blew up nearly simultaneously on Tuesday in an unprecedented attack that surpasses a series of covert assassinations and cyber-attacks in the region over recent years in its scope and execution.

The Iran-backed militant group said the wireless devices began to explode around 3:30 p.m. local time in a targeted Israeli attack on Hezbollah operatives.

Israel’s military, which has engaged in tit-for-tat strikes with Hezbollah since the start of the war with Iran-backed Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza last year, has refused to comment publicly on the explosions.

Experts say the explosions, unprecedented in their scale and nature, underscore Hezbollah’s vulnerability as its communication network was compromised to deadly effect.

Who was affected?

Several areas of the country were affected, particularly Beirut’s southern suburbs, a populous area that is a Hezbollah stronghold.

Footage showed shoppers and pedestrians collapsing in the street following the blasts. The blood-soaked injured bore flesh wounds, clips showed, including lost fingers, damaged eyes, and abdominal lacerations.

At least nine people were killed, including a child, and about 2,800 people were wounded, overwhelming Lebanese hospitals.

Why was Hezbollah using pagers?

Hezbollah has long touted secrecy as a cornerstone of its military strategy, forgoing high-tech devices to avoid infiltration from Israeli and US spyware.

Unlike other non-state actors in the Middle East, Hezbollah units are believed to communicate through an internal communications network. This is considered one of the key building blocks of the powerful group that has long been accused of operating as a state-within-a-state.

At the start of the year, Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah called on members and their families in southern Lebanon, where fighting with Israeli forces across the border has raged, to dump their cellphones, believing Israel could track the movement of the Iran-backed terror network through those devices.

“Shut it off, bury it, put it in an iron chest and lock it up,” he said in February. “The collaborator (with the Israelis) is the cell phone in your hands, and those of your wife and your children. This cell phone is the collaborator and the killer.”

Hezbollah instead went low-tech by turning to pagers, according to Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official and Middle East analyst.

The pagers would have prompted Hezbollah members to contact one another through those phone lines. But even that option was not without risk.

“Hezbollah regressed back to these devices thinking [they] would be safer for its combatants to use instead of phones which could be GPS targeted,” Melamed said. “These very low-tech devices were used against them and very possibly deepening the stress and embarrassment on its leaders.”

How did the pagers explode?

As Lebanon reels from the attack, speculation has mounted on how low-tech wireless communication devices could have been exploited.

The New York Times reported Tuesday that Israel hid explosives inside a batch of pagers ordered from Taiwanese manufacturer Gold Apollo and destined for Hezbollah. A switch was embedded to detonate them remotely, it added.

Most of the pagers were the company’s AP924 model but three other Gold Apollo models were included in the shipment, the Times reported.

Multiple photos that appear to show damaged Gold Apollo pagers have emerged on social media, alongside claims they were damaged in the wave of explosions.

Human operatives inside Hezbollah would have been key to the operation, he added.

“This is one of the most widescale and coordinated attacks that I’ve personally ever seen. The complexity needed to pull this off is incredible,” he said.

“It would have required many different intelligence components and execution. Human intelligence (HUMINT) would be the main method used to pull this off, along with intercepting the supply chain in order to make modifications to the pagers.”

What is the purpose of the attacks?

The operation was also likely designed to create a high-level of paranoia among Hezbollah members, degrade their ability to recruit people, and erode confidence in the leadership of Hezbollah and their ability to secure their operations and people.

Amos Yadlin, a former head of Israeli military intelligence and one of the country’s leading strategic experts, said the Israeli attack displayed “very impressive penetration capabilities, technology and intelligence.”

He speculated on X that Israel could have been sending a warning to Nasrallah.

“It seems the goal was to pass a message that sharpens the dilemma of Nasrallah: how much is he willing to pay for continuing to attack Israel and backing [Hamas leader Yahya] Sinwar?” Yadlin wrote. “The organization, which prides itself on secrecy and a high level of security, found itself penetrated and exposed.”

Or it could be a “prelude to an Israeli large-scale campaign against [Lebanon], at a time when Hezbollah is facing the chaos of this latest very science-fiction-like attack against its operatives.”

Why would Israel want to target Hezbollah?

Israel, which has yet to publicly comment on the deadly incident, leads the list of actors with the intent to degrade Hezbollah, experts say.

Israel has been linked to, or accused of, previous remote attacks in the region. Experts believe Israel and the United States were responsible for deploying a complex computer virus called stuxnet that destroyed centrifuges at an Iranian nuclear facility in 2009 and 2010.

Tuesday’s attack raises tensions in the already inflamed region. Hostilities are at an all-time high between Israel and Hezbollah following Hamas’ October 7 attack on Israel. Hezbollah, which has a formidable arsenal of weapons, has said its attacks on Israel are in solidarity with Hamas and Palestinians in Gaza.

Global leaders have been scrambling to prevent an escalation. US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin spoke twice with his Israeli counterpart, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, according to two US defense officials.

The official would not specify when the calls took place. Though the two are in regular contact, it’s uncommon to schedule two calls in one day and shows how seriously the US views the current situation.

As Russia’s military last week launched globe-spanning drills widely seen as a show of strength directed at the United States, President Vladimir Putin made clear which country he sees as standing by Moscow’s side.

In an opening video address, Putin said 15 “friendly” nations would observe what Moscow claimed were some 90,000 troops and more than 500 ships and aircraft mobilized for the largest such exercises in 30 years.

But only China would take part alongside Russia, according to Putin.

“We are paying special attention to strengthening cooperation with our friendly countries. This is especially important today amid rising geopolitical tension around the world,” the Russian leader said.

Dubbed “Ocean-2024,” the seven days of drills that ended Monday are the latest in a recent slew of military exercises and joint patrols between Russia and China that come on the heels of vows from Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping to tighten military cooperation, even as the Kremlin wages its war against Ukraine.

China sent several warships and 15 aircraft to waters off Russia’s Far East coast for Ocean-2024, according to the Russian military. In addition, Chinese and Russian forces this month touted deepened strategic coordination during joint naval drills in waters near Japan and held their fifth joint maritime patrol in the northern Pacific.

It follows a raft of joint exercises over the summer, including near Alaska – where US and Canadian forces intercepted Russian and Chinese bombers together for the first time – and in the South China Sea, a vital waterway claimed almost entirely by Beijing in which geopolitical tensions are rapidly rising.

That coordination has been watched with increasing concern in Washington, which has for months accused China of bolstering Russia’s defense sector with dual-use exports like machine tools and microelectronics, a charge Beijing denies as it claims neutrality in the conflict.

It also comes as the war in Ukraine grinds on and threats escalate, with Putin warning NATO leaders that lifting restrictions on Kyiv’s use of longer-range Western missiles to strike deep inside Russia would be considered an act of war.

The latest Russia-China military drills fit a pattern of more than a decade of enhanced military coordination between the two countries, experts say.

But at a time of heightened global tensions – including over Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s aggression in the South China Sea, and its claims to the self-ruled island of Taiwan – they also underscore how Moscow and Beijing increasingly view each other as key to projecting strength.

The joint drills also raise questions about whether the two nuclear-armed powers, which are not treaty allies, could act together in any potential future conflict.

‘Improving and consolidating’

The relationship between these two giant neighbors has never been simple.

Moscow and Beijing were once enemies that fought a 1969 border conflict between the Soviet Union and a young Communist China. But recent decades have seen a robust arms trade between the two, and – especially as Xi and Putin tightened ties more broadly – a scaling up of military coordination.

Between 2014 and 2023, the two militaries have held at least four and as many as 10 joint military exercises, war games or patrols each year, including multilateral drills with other countries, according to data from the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).

Those drills and patrols have also appeared to observers to become increasingly complex – for example involving both navy and air forces or more advanced equipment, as well taking place in farther-flung parts of the world.

In a first this July, both the Chinese and Russian aircraft intercepted near Alaska took off from the same Russian air base, according to CSIS researchers, who also noted this was the partners’ first joint air patrol in the northern Pacific.

“They’re not as interoperable as NATO allies, but they are improving and consolidating this strategic partnership or alignment,” said Alexander Korolev, a senior lecturer in politics and international relations at the University of New South Wales in Sydney.

Being able to work together as a single entity is a core ethos of NATO, the decades-old alliance of 32 member nations that is bound together by a mutual defense pact and is viewed by both China and Russia as a key military rival.

The demonstration of Russia and China’s consolidation has a clear audience: the US and its allies.

Putin and Xi have been driven together by a shared view that the West aims to suppress their core interests. For Putin, those concerns include preventing NATO expansion, while Xi eyes control of Taiwan and South China Sea domination.

Putin spelled out that context in his video address launching Ocean-2024, accusing the US and its allies of “using the alleged Russian threat and the China containment policy as a pretext for building up their military presence along Russia’s western borders, as well as in the Arctic and in Asia-Pacific.”

The Russian leader also warned that the US planned to station intermediate and shorter-range missiles in “forward deployment areas,” including the Asia-Pacific region. This appeared to echo comments Putin made over the summer criticizing Washington’s and Berlin’s plan to deploy US long-range missiles in Germany from 2026, and of the US temporarily sending a powerful missile launcher for exercises in the Philippines earlier this year – a move also condemned by Beijing.

Both Russia and China want to show the US and its allies that their “two militaries are becoming increasingly integrated and any challenge to either risks a combined response,” said Carl Schuster, a retired US Navy captain and former director of operations at the US Pacific Command’s Joint Intelligence Center.

“They are saying in effect that we can do to you, that is, operate in your backyard like you have been doing in ours.”

The drills also provide opportunities for each to learn from the other – as Russia, with its extensive battlefield experience, and China, which has become increasingly advanced in electronic military technologies, each have something to learn from the other, observers say.

Korolev said it’s “increasingly difficult” in the wake of the Ukraine war and extensive Western sanctions to know the extent to which the latest drills are also sustaining Sino-Russian technical cooperation on arms, which previously was a feature of their years of steadily enhanced military collaboration.

Double threat?

In Washington, the optics of the tightening ties are raising concerns over the risk of a simultaneous US military conflict with China and Russia, or even one that could also include other partners, like Iran, with which the two countries held naval drills earlier this year. There are also concerns about Moscow’s potential support for Beijing in any war in Asia-Pacific.

There, Beijing and Washington navigate a host of potential flashpoints including China’s designs on Taiwan and its mounting aggression in the South China Sea against US treaty ally the Philippines. Both Russia and China have also been warily watching the US’ strengthening of its longstanding ties with regional allies.

But observers say that despite the growing coordination within joint drills, it’s unlikely there is a clear end goal past sending a strong signal – at least for now.

“I don’t know that you are going to see Russian planes supporting a Chinese attack on Taiwan, for example, or in a conflict with the Philippines are Russian vessels are going to support Chinese ones? I doubt it,” said Elizabeth Wishnick, a senior research scientist in the China and Indo-Pacific Security Affairs Division at independent research group CNA.

While Russia and China may have “overlapping interests” they are not on the same page on strategic goals in the region, she said.

“I don’t think you can assume that just because they’re having more military exercises that they’re in lockstep,” she said.

In joint statements, China and Russia insist their relationship is one of non-alignment that doesn’t target any third party.

Each also has different geopolitical objectives in the region. Russia, for example, maintains close ties with China’s rival India – and is likely eager to prevent any Chinese ascendancy in Asia that deepens the power imbalance between Beijing and Moscow.

In turn, China would also be wary of compromising its own strategic aims by acting too directly in concert with Russia – but also of any action that could destabilize warming ties with its northern neighbor following decades of fractious relations that have previously spilled over into conflict.

“Simply put, China sides with no one but itself,” said James Char, an assistant professor at Nanyang Technological University’s Institute of Defense and Strategic Studies in Singapore. “Beneath the surface, China and Russia continue to harbor deep mutual mistrust.”  
 
But observers say there’s still a potential range of ways the partnership could come to bear if conflict were to break out in Asia involving China.

Russia would at least reciprocate with the kind of diplomatic and economic support that Beijing has extended to Moscow during the war in Ukraine, analysts say, and would also likely help provide weapons and discounted energy.

When it comes to joining China in any potential conflict with the US, however, Russia may have “more to lose and little to gain,” according to Schuster, the retired Navy captain.

But were China to act against Taiwan, the Russian military could potentially offer limited support like sending ships and air force patrols to waters around Japan, or possibly deploy one or two submarines into the Western Pacific, he said.

That would “give the US and its allies another factor of concern as they weigh how to respond,” he said. “But China will have to offer a lot to convince Russia to join that conflict.”

Is it a prelude to a wider attack or the totality of the message to Hezbollah? This is the key question for the next 48 hours in the Middle East, as the Lebanese militant group comes to terms with the wholesale disruption and violation of their most sacred communications.

Tuesday’s wave of explosions in Lebanon will likely scar the Party, as they are often known, who pride themselves on secrecy, and the technological omerta their members adhere to. Yet it is their very bid to keep their secrets – using low-tech pagers and not more trackable smartphones – that appears to have led to several deaths and thousands of injuries.

It will have caused a seismic shock with Hezbollah members to now be asking not only if it is safe to contact their colleagues, but if those colleagues are unharmed?

Israel has characteristically not claimed responsibility, but if it was behind the attack as Lebanon and Hezbollah say, then the question is whether this vast and unprecedented assault was intended to presage a wider fight.

It would make strategic sense to dispense a moment of intense chaos like this just before a bigger onslaught on the group militarily.

The timing is telling. Just on Monday, the Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant said during a meeting with the US envoy Amos Hochstein that the time for diplomacy with Hezbollah had passed and military might could take center stage. Literally hours later, their enemy’s entire communications infrastructure was hit with an attack that, according to a Lebanese security source, used pagers purchased by Hezbollah in “recent months,” necessitating a long lead time in the operation’s planning.

The violence again spoke of a technological gulf between Israel and its opponents. We have seen this repeatedly in high-profile killings in Tehran over the past years: the precision of an apparent Mossad strike against an al-Qaeda leader in 2020. The wizardry behind the killing of nuclear scientist, Mohsen Fakhrizadeh, which reportedly used facial recognition to fire a machine gun. And the recent assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh, which reportedly used a remote-controlled bomb hidden in a guest bedroom.

The same superior intelligence and capability was on display across Lebanon, where civilians appear to have been caught in widespread blasts that were not precise enough. The horror of hundreds of apparently simultaneous tiny but intimate explosions will be felt by ordinary Lebanese, a reminder of the damage inflicted nationwide by the 2006 war with their southern neighbor. The risk of widespread war with Israel again has become a pressing reality since the October 7 attacks.

It places Hezbollah, however, in another unenviable moment of frailty – plunged into chaos, with great pressure upon them to project strength again. The same dilemma was visited upon them after the assassination of senior commander Fu’ad Shukr in August. Hezbollah felt compelled to strike back, and maintain a sense of deterrence. Yet it became slowly clear they lacked enthusiasm for a larger conflict. Leader Hassan Nasrallah delayed their response to a time of his choosing, and enabled the muted exchange of rocket fire and airstrikes that followed on August 25 to not get out of hand.

At the same time, the given wisdom that Israel does not want a war either is eroding. Israeli airstrikes hit targets to their north almost daily, with a growing absence of concern about Hezbollah’s response. Tuesday’s wide-ranging attack on Lebanon will necessitate Hezbollah finding some means of projecting strength through retaliation, but again speaks to the gap between their capabilities and those of their southern neighbor.

A long ground war between the two would see Israeli forces, over-stretched and exhausted by a brutal year-long Gaza campaign, facing to their north an enemy fresher and better-trained than Hamas. Hezbollah will still be able to inflict significant damage upon Israel if a full-scale battle erupts. But Israel may have decided too cleanly that Hezbollah seeks to avoid war, and therefore can be goaded repeatedly.

It may be precisely the sort of miscalculation that leads to a widening of the conflict; the moment when Hezbollah determine Israel have dismissed them as a persistent threat will be the moment they feel compelled to act most violently.

The pager blasts could speak of a war where one side is confident in its huge advantage technologically, but also willing to absorb the risks that come with inflicting a wide-ranging embarrassment on its foe. We will learn in the coming days if the calculations behind the attack avoided escalation, or fomented it.

Ukrainian prosecutors have launched an investigation into an alleged Russian execution of a Ukrainian soldier found dead with a sword inscribed with “for Kursk” in his body, in an apparent act of revenge for Kyiv’s recent incursion into the Russian border region.

In a photo circulating online, a man is seen lying on his back on a rubble-strewn road with a medieval-style sword protruding from his chest. Duct tape can be seen around the wrists of one of his blood-stained arms.

The words “for Kursk” are written in Cyrillic on the sword, in seeming reference to Ukraine’s cross-border attack on the Kursk region, the first foreign invasion of Russian territory since World War II.

Ukraine’s prosecutor general, Andriy Kostin, said on Tuesday that the image showed “another act of barbarism” by Russia. His office later confirmed it had opened a criminal investigation into the alleged execution.

“Footage of an alleged execution by sword of an unarmed Ukrainian serviceman with taped hands is spreading on the web,” he wrote on X. “Russia continues its deliberate policy of eliminating everything Ukrainian, demonstrating worldwide its brutal cruelty and cynically disregarding any values and norms of the civilized world.”

Kostin said preliminary assessments showed the incident occurred in Novohrodivka, a city in Ukraine’s eastern Donetsk region.

Ukraine’s human rights commissioner, Dmytro Lubinets, said the alleged execution was “a violation of the Geneva Convention on the Treatment of Prisoners of War.” Under this convention, prisoners of war must not be subjected to torture and must be protected from violence.

Kyiv is investigating nearly 130,000 war crimes allegedly committed by Moscow since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022, Kostin said in June.

Thursday’s image comes as Russia is stepping up its efforts to expel Ukrainian forces from Kursk. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky acknowledged the start of Russia’s counteroffensive and said the Kremlin intends to deploy up to 70,000 troops to the region, but said last week that Moscow’s forces “have not yet had any serious success.”

Meanwhile, Russia is inching forward toward Pokrovsk, northwest of Novohrodivka, where the alleged sword execution occurred.

In an update Thursday, Ukraine’s military said its troops had thwarted 40 Russian attacks near Pokrovsk over the past 24 hours, and that the attacks were most fierce near Hrodivka and Novohrodivka.

The Kremlin has not commented on the alleged execution.