Nearly three years ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin stood by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko in his hour of need, backing Europe’s longest-running dictator as he faced a wave of street protests.

Now Lukashenko appears to have come through for Putin, if we are to believe what the Kremlin and the Belarusian presidential press service tell us.

A quick recap: A major crisis shook the foundations of the Russian state Saturday, as forces loyal to Wagner mercenary boss Yevgeny Prigozhin marched toward Moscow. Then, an abrupt reversal happened — Prigozhin called off their advance, claiming his mercenaries had come within 124 miles of the capital but were turning around to avoid spilling Russian blood.

According to the Belarusian presidential press service, the decision followed an unexpected intervention by Lukashenko himself. The supposed deal struck with Prigozhin would see the Wagner boss leave for Belarus; a criminal case against the mercenary boss would be dropped; and Wagner fighters would be folded into formal military structures by signing contracts with the Russian ministry of defense.

But those, it’s worth emphasizing, are only the bare outlines of the deal. Prigozhin — whereabouts currently unknown — has not commented on the supposed agreement. And the Kremlin and Belarusian account of Lukashenko’s mediation appear to stretch credibility.

“You will probably ask me – why Lukashenko?” Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Saturday. “The fact is that Alexander Grigoryevich (Lukashenko) has known Prigozhin personally for a long time, for about 20 years. And it was his personal proposal, which was agreed with President Putin. We are grateful to the President of Belarus for these efforts.”

Those efforts, Peskov claimed, “managed to resolve this situation without further losses, without increasing the level of tension.”

Still, Lukashenko’s apparent intercession raises more questions than it answers.

For starters, Lukashenko is clearly seen as the junior partner in the relationship with Putin. And Belarus depends on Russia for aid: At the height of Lukashenko’s confrontation with protesters, Putin came through with a loan of $1.5 billion. And Belarus has been a springboard for Russian military operations in Ukraine, something that has isolated Lukashenko further from the West and triggered new sanctions on the country’s economy.

So what’s to gain here for Lukashenko? It seems difficult to envision Prigozhin happily harvesting potatoes alongside the Belarusian leader, a former collective farm boss. And why was Putin — who until this weekend, was the reliable arbiter of elite disputes in Russia — unable to cut that deal himself? Delegating Lukashenko to resolve the crisis further damages Putin’s image as a decisive man of action.

The initial details we have, it seems, do not completely add up. And adding to that uncertainty are other questions: What will happen to the Wagner “brand?” Will Prigozhin’s foot soldiers be compliant and let themselves be absorbed into the Russian military? Will they still have loyalty to their boss? And what about Wagner forces operating elsewhere in the world, from Africa to the Middle East?

Prigozhin — if and when he surfaces — may give us some clues.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu issued a stark warning Sunday instructing Jewish settlers not to “grab land illegally” in the occupied West Bank, after humanitarian bodies raised the alarm over a series of deadly attacks on Palestinian villagers.

At the same time, Netanyahu repeatedly endorsed the construction of settlements approved by the government, which are considered illegal under international law.

“Calls to grab land illegally and actions of grabbing land illegally, are unacceptable to me. They undermine law and order in Judea and Samaria [West Bank] and must stop immediately,” he said at a cabinet meeting on Sunday.

“Not only will we not back such actions, our government will take strong action against them.

“These calls and actions do not strengthen settlement – on the contrary, they hurt it. I say this as someone who doubled settlement in Judea and Samaria despite great and unprecedented international pressure to carry out withdrawals that I have not carried out and will not carry out. These calls hurt the vital interests of the State of Israel and they must stop immediately.”

Israeli authorities describe the West Bank as Judea and Samaria.

Netanyahu stressed a twin approach to security. “We have been targeting a record number of terrorists and also building in our country on a broad scale according to approved construction plans. I emphasize – approved.”

The recent uptick in violence peaked on Wednesday, when Israeli settlers attacked the Palestinian village of Turmusayya in the occupied West Bank, the day after the killing of four Jewish settlers nearby, according to the mayor of the village.

Those killings had been in retaliation to an Israeli military operation in the Jenin area on Monday, which left seven Palestinians dead and 91 injured, according to the UN. Seven Israeli soldiers were injured.

Israeli security forces have recently ramped up armed hostilities against Palestinian militants, amid Netanyahu’s campaign for illegal settlers’ outposts to be expanded and turned into full settlements.

‘Nationalist terrorism’

Senior Israeli security officials condemned what they called “nationalist terrorism” by some settlers, after the latest attacks took place on Saturday around the Palestinian village of Umm Safr, north of Ramallah.

“In recent days, violent attacks have been carried out by Israelis in Judea and Samaria against innocent Palestinians,” the Chief of the Israeli General Staff, Gen. Herzi Halevi, the Director of the Israel Security Agency [ISA], Ronen Bar and Israel’s Police Commissioner, Yaakov Shabtai, said in a statement.

“These attacks contradict every moral and Jewish value; they constitute, in every way, nationalist terrorism, and we are obliged to fight them.

“Israel’s security forces are operating against those rioters, risking the lives of IDF soldiers, Israel Police officers and ISA personnel,” the statement said, adding that arrests would be made as the violence “diverts the security forces from their main mission of operating against Palestinian terrorism.”

Israeli police were met with resistance when trying to seize vehicles belonging to settlers said to have set fire to two houses, a truck and two vehicles as part of the attacks in Umm Safr, according to a spokesperson for the force.

“The rioters proceeded to throw stones and other projectiles at both police officers and their vehicles, resulting in significant damage,” the police spokesperson said.

It took several hours to reopen the settlement gate, which the individuals had “deliberately damaged” to prevent “entry or exit.”

Additionally, a search of vehicles elsewhere had revealed “a gasoline-like substance, gloves, batons, and a knife,” which were confiscated, and two suspects were apprehended.

Separately, the IDF said on Saturday that rocks had been thrown in Umm Safr while Israeli citizens reportedly set fire to Palestinian property. It said an Israeli citizen had been arrested, adding: “The IDF condemns such acts of nationalist crime that lead to escalation.”

A family of eight was rescued from one burning house, according to Palestinian civil defense teams.

The Palestinian authorities said on Sunday that the Israeli authorities had been forced to make a “clear and public recognition of the existence of national terrorism committed by thousands of settlers carrying weapons, who enjoy public protection from the occupation army and political cover from ministers in the Israeli government.”

The Palestinian Foreign Ministry said that the Israeli statement was issued to address international opinion, but “not intended to arrest settler elements and their terrorist leaders or start collecting their weapons.”

Russia’s Supreme Court has on Thursday dismissed an appeal by jailed Russian opposition leader Alexey Navalny against restrictions imposed on access to writing materials in prison, according to Russian independent news site Mediazona.

Navalny, who attended the hearing via video link, had been challenging the restrictions imposed on access to writing materials in prisons “not only for himself, but for all prisoners” during a hearing at the Supreme Court in Moscow, his spokesperson Kira Yarmysh said.

“Aleksey is trying to achieve the right to correspondence, and not only for himself, but for all prisoners,” she said in a post on her official Twitter account.

The decision came as Navalny is facing a new trial on charges of “extremism” that could result in his prison sentence being extended by decades.

A court spokesperson said Monday that the trial will take place behind closed doors.

Navalny is already serving sentences totaling 11-and-a-half years in a maximum security facility on fraud and other charges that he says were trumped up.

He and his supporters claim that his arrest and imprisonment were politically motivated, intended to silence his criticism of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Just hours after the trial began, Navalny announced the start of a campaign aimed at turning Russians against the war in Ukraine.

In comments posted to his Twitter account, Navalny said the “absurd” charges could lead to him serving a further 30 years behind bars.

The city of San Antonio has big expectations for Victor Wembanyama.

Hundreds of fans waited for hours at the airport, cheering as the No. 1 NBA draft pick emerged from a private plane on Friday, and the welcome party has lasted all weekend.

“The last 72 hours have been really tiring but I’m really enjoying the moment,” the 7-foot-4 Frenchman told reporters on Saturday.

“Everyone is doing a perfect job around me. Everyone is doing their best so I feel good … My family and my people around me do a lot for me. Everywhere I’ve been I’ve been welcomed warmly.”

Widely hailed as the most exciting draft prospect since LeBron James, the 19-year-old Wembanyama can be dominant on defense as well as possessing the ability to dribble the ball like a point guard and shoot from a three-point range efficiently.

He enjoyed dinner on Friday night with NBA champions and San Antonio Spurs legends Tim Duncan, David Robinson and Manu Ginobili. Even among fellow NBA stars, he still towered over them as he posed for a photo afterwards.

“Probably in a couple hours, I learned more about the NBA than in my whole life before that,” Wembanyama told reporters afterwards when asked about the dinner.

“It’s so comforting to see these people who are so important to the city of San Antonio and to the franchise are such kind people and generous. Because they genuinely wanted to share with me their experience. They’ve already started to take great care of me. It’s just so comforting to be in that position.”

Couldn’t ask for better role models pic.twitter.com/lcw7cvbeTt

— Wemby (@vicw_32) June 25, 2023

And after saying that he was excited to sample the local speciality of breakfast tacos when he reached San Antonio, Wembanyama tried them on his first morning in the city.

“I love breakfast tacos … Bacon and egg, and beans and cheese,” he said at an event at the Arneson River Theatre when asked which tacos he had.

The assembled fans cheered in response, already excited to see the budding superstar in their city before he has even played an NBA game.

Now he’s touched down in Texcas, attention turns to the upcoming season and the impact that Wembanyama can have in the league.

“It’s really comfortable,” he added in his press conference. “I’m really happy to be in this position.”

For a country with the world’s lowest fertility rate – one that has spent hundreds of billions of dollars trying to encourage women to have more babies – the idea of barring children from places like cafes and restaurants might seem a little counterproductive.

But in South Korea, “no-kids zones” have become remarkably popular in recent years. Hundreds have sprung up across the country, aimed largely at ensuring disturbance-free environments for the grown-ups.

There are nearly 80 such zones on the holiday island of Jeju alone, according to a local think tank, and more than four hundred in the rest of the country, according to activist groups.

Doubts, though, are beginning to creep in about the wisdom of restricting children from so many places, fueled by concerns over the country’s growing demographic problems.

In addition to the world’s lowest birthrate, South Korea has one of the world’s fastest aging populations. That has left it with a problem familiar to graying nations across the world, namely: how to fund the pension and health care needs of a growing pool of retirees on the tax income generated by a slowly vanishing pool of workers.

And South Korea’s problem is more acute than most.

Last year, its fertility rate dropped to a record low of 0.78 – not even half the 2.1 needed for a stable population and far below even that of Japan (1.3), currently the world’s grayest nation. (And even further below the United States, which at 1.6 faces aging problems of its own).

With young South Koreans already facing pressure on multiple fronts – from sky-high real estate costs and long working weeks to rising economic anxiety – critics of the zones say the last thing the country needs is yet one more thing to make them think twice about starting a family.

The government, they point out, should know this better than anyone. After all, it’s spent more than $200 billion over the past 16 years trying to encourage more people to have children. Critics suggest that, rather than throwing more money at the problem, it needs to work on changing society’s attitudes towards the young.

‘Society must be reborn’

With polls suggesting a majority of South Koreans support no-kids zones, shifting those mindsets won’t be easy. But there are signs opinions may be shifting.

In recent weeks, a pushback against the zones has gained momentum thanks to Yong Hye-in, a mother and a lawmaker for the Basic Income Party who, in a show of defiance to mark Children’s Day, took her 2-year-old son to a meeting of the National Assembly – where babies are not usually allowed.

“Everyday life with children is not easy,” she told the assembled lawmakers in an impassioned speech, during which she was pictured both cuddling her son and letting him wander around the podium. “Our society must be reborn into one where children are included.”

That speech gained media coverage across the world, but it is not the only sign attitudes may slowly be changing.

Jeju island – a tourist hotspot off the southern tip of the Korean peninsula – recently debated the country’s first-ever bill aimed at making such zones illegal (though if passed it would apply only to the island).

The move by its provincial council comes amid growing concerns that the age limits imposed by many guesthouses and campsites on the tourism-dependent island may be damaging its reputation for hospitality.

As Bonnie Tilland, a university lecturer who specializes in South Korean culture, puts it: “Families with children who travel to Jeju on holiday are disgruntled if they drive to a scenic café only to be told that their children are not allowed.”

Other critics say the problem goes deeper than lost business opportunities. Some see no-kids zones as an unjustifiable act of age discrimination that runs contrary to the Korean constitution.

In 2017, the National Human Rights Commission of Korea judged that no-kids zones violated the right to equality and called for businesses to end the practice in what was the first official statement on the matter by a state institution. It cited clause 11 of the constitution, which bans discrimination on the basis of gender, religion or social status, and pointed to a UN convention stipulating that “No child should be treated unfairly on any basis.”

The ruling came in response to a petition by a father of three who was turned away from an Italian restaurant on Jeju. But it is not legally binding and critics say the ongoing popularity of no-kids zones highlights how hard it will be to change people’s mindsets.

A fateful broth and a popular idea

South Korea’s embrace of no-kids zones is widely thought to date back to an incident in 2012, in which a restaurant diner carrying hot broth accidentally scalded a child.

The incident caused a stir online, after the child’s mother made a series of posts on social media attacking the diner.

Initially, there was much public sympathy for the mother as the case appeared to have parallels to other incidents in which establishments had been forced to pay compensation following accidents involving children.

But the public’s mood began to change after security camera footage emerged showing the child running around moments beforehand, Tilland said. Many began to blame the mother for not reining in her child’s behavior.

“Then discussion unfolded over the next few years on social media about the rights and responsibilities of parents and guardians of young children in public spaces and private businesses,” said Tilland, who used to teach at Yonsei University in Seoul but is now with Leiden University in the Netherlands.

By 2014, she says, no-kids zones had become a familiar sight, “most commonly in cafes but also in some restaurants and other businesses.”

Over the years, the zones have grown in popularity, with a survey in 2021 by Hankook Research finding that more than 7 in 10 adults were in favor, and fewer than 2 in 10 against (the rest were undecided).

And it is not only childless adults who back them. In South Korea, so widely acknowledged is the right to some peace and quiet that even many parents see the zones as reasonable and justified.

“When I’m out with my child, I see a lot of situations that may make me frown,” said Lee Yi-rang, a mother of a two-year-old boy.

“It’s not difficult to find parents who don’t control their children, causing damage to facilities and other people. That makes me understand why there are no-kids zones,” she said.

Mother-of-two Lee Ji-eun from Seoul agrees. She thinks it’s a decision best left “to the business owners” – and if a parent “doesn’t like that, then they can seek a kids-allowed zone.”

Not all parents are so understanding. Kim Se-hee, also from Seoul, said she feels “attacked when I see a blatant no-kids sign like that posted at a shop.”

“There’s so much hatred against mothers already in Korea with terms like ‘mom-choong’ (‘mother bug,’ a derogatory term for mothers who care only about their children to the disregard of others) and I think no-kids zones validate that kind of negative sentiment toward moms,” she said.

No kids, no rappers, no professors

Meanwhile, it would be wrong to suggest that it is only the youngest in society who are subject to such “zoning” requirements.

On Jeju, it’s not unusual to see signs at camping grounds or guest houses stipulating both lower and upper age limits for would-be guests. There are “no-teenager zones” and “no-senior zones”, for example, and even plenty of zones targeting those somewhere in between.

So numerous have the “no-middle-aged zones” become that they have collectively been dubbed “no-ajae zones,” in reference to a slang term for “uncle.”

One restaurant in Seoul rose to notoriety after “politely declining” people over 49 (on the basis men of that age might harass female staff), while in 2021, a camping ground in Jeju sparked heated debate with a notice saying it did not accept reservations from people aged 40 or above. Citing a desire to keep noise and alcohol use to a minimum, it stated a preference for women in their 20s and 30s.

Other zones are even more niche.

Among those to have caused a stir on social media are a cafe in Seoul that in 2018 declared itself a “no-rapper zone,” a “no-YouTuber zone” and even a “no-professor zone”.

But most such zones follow a similar logic – that of preventing disturbance to other customers. For instance, no-YouTuber zones became popular in response to a trend known as “mukbang” (based on words for “eating” and “broadcast”) in which some livestreamers would show up at restaurants without prior consent to film themselves eating.

Tilland says the appeal of such zones is complex, but derives in part from the strong pro-business sentiment in the country. A common mindset is that it is only natural that business owners should have a say on who they accept as clientele, she says.

As for no-kids zones specifically, she has another theory.

“Koreans in their 20s and 30s, in particular, tend to have a strong concept of personal space, and are increasingly less tolerant of both noisy children in their midst and noisy older people,” Tilland said.

But such mindsets need to be re-examined if the country is to get a grip on its population problems, Tilland says, arguing they “reflect a worrying intolerance for anyone existing in public places who is different from oneself.”

“Deep-rooted attitudes that every category of people belongs in ‘their place’ – and for mothers this is home with children, not out participating in public life – are one of the reasons young women are reluctant to have children,” she said.

No kids to kids first?

Lawmaker Yong came to a similar realization after giving birth in 2021.

She had suffered postpartum depression and stayed at home for the first nearly 100 days of her child’s life. When she finally felt well enough to take her child for a walk the experience was alienating.

She says many new mothers feel this way, citing a case being investigated by the labor ministry in which a working mother, a computer programmer at a leading tech firm, killed herself and left a suicide note asking, “Is a working mom a sinner?”

“I am doing politics to create a society where working working moms don’t have to (feel like) a sinner,” Yong said.

Her ultimate aim is to make childcare the “responsibility of society as a whole, not of individual caregivers and parents,” which she believes is the only way to overcome the population crisis.

One way she hopes to bring about this change is by pushing for an equality bill that would outlaw discrimination based on age.

But legislation isn’t the only way, she says. She thinks the government and local authorities can achieve much simply by guiding businesses away from no-kids zones and learning from other countries where families with young children are fast-tracked through queues at public places like museums and zoos.

There may be other ways to compromise too.

Barista Ahn Hee-yul says he has faced situations in a cafe he once worked for where parents appeared unable to keep their children from causing a nuisance, yet he appreciates the need to strike a balance between the needs of parents and non-parents.

“I suggest no-kids times, instead of no-kids zones,” he said, suggesting that venues for instance allow children until 5 p.m., after which it’s adults only.

“In the end, they’re just kids. It’s the best middle ground I could think of.”

Ever since President Vladimir Putin gave the order for Russian troops to invade Ukraine, the international response has understandably focused on how best to end the land war. That has meant sending conventional military hardware – tanks, missile systems, artillery – and training Ukrainian soldiers.  

Not bad for an organization France’s President Emmanuel Macron warned in 2019 was facing “brain death.”

Russia’s aggression hasn’t been restricted to the battlefield. Even before the invasion, NATO officials noted a rise in non-conventional warfare aimed at Ukraine and other Western targets. Since the start of the war, disinformation, energy restrictions and cyberattacks on infrastructure have all been weaponized by the Kremlin to justify and advance its war.  

Those weapons are not only aimed at the target, in this case Ukraine. “Russia claims that NATO promised never to expand to the east after the dissolution of the Soviet Union. And although we’ve been debunking that for years, you see that this keeps coming back. And there’s definitely a percentage of our population that falls for this kind of disinformation,” van Weel said.   

These sorts of attacks can have very real-world impact, van Weel explained, referencing a cyberattack that took out German wind farms last year. It is commonly accepted that energy security has been a key feature of the war in Ukraine, with Russia using energy as a weapon against Western allies.  

Much of the Western focus since the start of the war has been on defense spending. It is no secret that the vast majority of NATO allies have for years fallen far short of their 2% target, something that has long infuriated officials at NATO’s Brussels HQ.

A common explanation as to why this happened is that in the post-Soviet era, Western countries became complacent, feeling that they had won the Cold War.  

“Countries far away from invasion themselves felt that distance would lead security, and they could continue to ignore the growing urgency of investment in hard security,” said Keir Giles, a senior fellow at the London-based Chatham House think tank.  

“Spending 2% of GDP on defence was supposed to be a baseline – the minimum credible level of defence budget. Over time, cynical countries who didn’t feel at risk pointed to the spending of 2% to claim that they were doing enough on defense. But in reality, there was no stipulation on what that 2% – even if they reached that threshold – was spent on, so it was never an indication of how prepared or useful they might be,” Giles added.   

This inertia has also held back the West’s ability to deal with cyber and non-conventional threats from adversaries, including Russia and China. To those working in these areas, it came as no surprise that Russia had been so successful interfering in the elections of other nations or that China had so successfully spread disinformation in Western countries during the pandemic.  

Peter Caddick-Adams, a former official NATO historian, explains that it is extremely difficult for nations not currently at war to behave as though they are. This war mentality is key when dealing with threats that are not boots on the ground, but are just as aggressive and exist in places that are harder to see.

While all eyes will be on whether or not Sweden becomes the 32nd country to join NATO at its summit next month, the collective defense alliance will also use its meeting to show that it’s prepared for its future.  

It will announce the NATO Innovation Fund, a project that will bring 23 of NATO’s members together with private business in the technology sector. It will make the participating nations Limited Partners, meaning they will not seek majority stakes in companies and allow the companies to carry on working with other investors, including from outside NATO.  

Why is an organization like NATO taking such a relaxed approach to developing technologies that will soon become so critical to national and international security? 

“Innovation used to come from the defense sector. We think of GPS and the internet. But that world has completely changed around that now. Innovation comes from start-ups and academic ecosystems, not from big companies or governments anymore,” said van Weel.  

The innovation fund is the second major NATO plan to deal with non-conventional and emerging threats to launch this year. The Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA) launched its first pilot challenge program on June 19.  

Will this push to better prepare the West for whatever the next decade looks like succeed? China, after all, is becoming more hostile and there is no certainty as to how the Russia’s war in Ukraine ends, nor if it spills beyond Ukraine’s borders. And if the war does end, is there a risk that allies revert to the complacency of the past? 

Giles argues that NATO is dealing with the consequences of decades when its members “had the luxury of pretending that the problem of defense and security had gone away.” Russia’s invasion “ought to have proven beyond any doubt that Europe is under threat and needs to invest in protecting itself, both in terms of conventional and non-conventional security,” he said.

And while politicians are promising renewed spending and attention right now, he fears that convincing the public this is essential, even after Ukraine, is “a leap of imagination that seems beyond the capabilities of most Western politicians.” 

Caddick-Adams says that Ukraine provides a window for NATO to prove that the alliance can act effectively without engaging in war itself, thereby making its members more comfortable with spending in the future.  

“Ukraine has become a springboard basically for NATO’s experiments in this non-conventional stuff. Without engaging Russia, NATO has enabled Ukraine to try some of the things NATO would like to do but politically cannot do. It answers a lot of questions about warmongering or German uneasiness, but militarily in terms of capabilities,” he said.  

It’s easy to forget exactly how recently Macron made his “brain death” comments. The manner in which the alliance was caught cold by Putin’s escalation might lend some credibility to that view. 

But the alliance’s unity has been one of the least expected and most welcome aspects of the West’s response to the war in Ukraine. And the relative stability of the politics within the alliance has created windows for NATO to try new things and get the money to do so.  

However, officials are also aware that this collegiate approach might not last forever. And it’s not the unknown factor of how long the war persists and countries losing interest that worries some officials the most. It’s the prospect of elections happening across the alliance in which the issue of Ukraine could become a wedge issue – including the small matter of the race for the White House in 2024.  

Within a remarkable day and a half, Russia faced the very real threat of an armed insurrection, with President Vladimir Putin vowing to punish Wagner fighters marching toward Moscow and occupying cities along the way – before a sudden deal with Belarus seemed to defuse the crisis as rapidly as it emerged.

But much remains uncertain, with experts warning the rare uprising isn’t likely to disappear so quickly without consequences down the line.

Putin must now navigate the aftermath of the most serious challenge to his authority since he came to power in 2000, following a series of dizzying events that was closely – and nervously – watched by the world and cheered by Ukraine.

Outspoken Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin is being sent to Belarus, apparently unscathed, but he may have painted a target on his own back like never before.

Here’s what we know.

What’s the latest?

Prigozhin, the bombastic head of the Wagner group, agreed to leave Russia for neighboring Belarus on Saturday, in a deal apparently brokered by Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.

The deal includes Prigozhin pulling back his troops from their march toward the capital, said a Kremlin spokesperson on Saturday.

The criminal charges against him will be dropped, said the spokesperson. Wagner fighters will face no legal action for their part in the insurrection, and will instead sign contracts with Russia’s Ministry of Defense – a move Prigozhin had previously rejected as an attempt to bring his paramilitary force in line.

It’s not clear where Prigozhin is now. The Kremlin is unaware of his whereabouts, the spokesperson said Saturday.

How did this happen?

The crisis in Russia erupted Friday when Prigozhin accused Russia’s military of attacking a Wagner camp and killing his men – and vowed to retaliate by force.

Prigozhin then led his troops into Rostov-on-Don and claimed to have taken control of key military facilities in the Voronezh region, where there was an apparent clash between Wagner units and Russian forces.

Prigozhin claimed it wasn’t a coup but a “march of justice.” But that did little to appease Moscow, with a top security official calling Prigozhin’s actions a “staged coup d’état,” according to Russian state media.

Russia’s Defense Ministry denied attacking Wagner’s troops, and Russia’s internal security force opened a criminal case against Prigozhin.

Then came a remarkable national address from Putin.

In a speech that was broadcast across Russia on Saturday morning local time, a visibly furious Putin vowed to punish those “on a path to treason.”

Wagner’s “betrayal” was a “stab in the back of our country and our people,” he said, likening the group’s actions to the 1917 Russian Revolution that toppled Tsar Nicholas II in the midst of WWI.

Things were tense on the ground, with civilians in Voronezh told to stay home. Meanwhile, Moscow stepped up its security measures across the capital, declaring Monday a non-workday. Photos show Russian forces in body armor and wielding automatic weapons near a highway outside Moscow.

All signs pointed to an impending armed confrontation in the capital as rumors and uncertainty swirled.

Then almost as suddenly as it began, the short-lived mutiny fizzled out with the Belarus deal seeming putting out the fire – at least for now.

What’s next for Prigozhin and Wagner?

Much remains unclear, such as what will happen to Prigozhin’s role within Wagner and the Ukraine war, and whether all his fighters will be contracted to Russia’s military.

The Kremlin spokesperson said on Saturday he “cannot answer” what position Prigozhin will take in Belarus. Prigozhin himself has provided little detail about his agreement to halt the advance on Moscow.

The Wagner group is “an independent fighting company” with different conditions than the Russian military, said retired US Army Maj. Mike Lyons on Saturday. For instance, Wagner fighters are better fed than the military – meaning a full assimilation would be difficult.

“Maybe some will splinter off,” he added. “Those people are loyal to the man, Prigozhin, not to the country, not to the mission. I think we’ve got a lot more questions that are not answered right now.”

The danger isn’t over for the Wagner boss, either, experts say.

It’s possible we could see Prigozhin “get killed in Belarus,” she added – but it’s a tough dilemma for Moscow because as long as Prigozhin “has some type of support, he is a threat, regardless of where he is.”

What does this mean for Putin?

Putin now faces real problems, too.

“If I were Putin, I would be worried about those people on the streets of Rostov cheering the Wagner people as they leave,” said Dougherty.

“Why are average Russians on the street cheering people who just tried to carry out a coup?” Dougherty said. “That means that maybe they support them or they like them. Whatever it is, it’s really bad news for Putin.”

Who is Prigozhin? Why would he do this?

Prigozhin has known Putin since the 1990s, and was nicknamed “Putin’s chef” after winning lucrative catering contracts with the Kremlin. But Russian-backed separatist movements in Ukraine in 2014 set the foundation for Prigozhin’s transformation into a warlord.

Prigozhin founded Wagner to be a shadowy mercenary outfit that fought both in eastern Ukraine and, increasingly, for Russian-backed causes around the world.

Wagner was thrust into the spotlight during the Ukraine war, with the fighters appearing to win tangible progress where regular Russian troops failed. However, its brutal tactics are believed to have caused high numbers of casualties.

As the war dragged on, Prigozhin and Russia’s military leadership have engaged in a public feud, with the Wagner boss accusing the military of not giving his forces ammunition and bemoaning the lack of battlefield successes by regular military units.

He was repeatedly critical of their handling of the conflict, casting himself as ruthless and competent in comparison.

Prigozhin was always careful to direct his blame towards Russia’s military leadership, not Putin, and had defended the reasoning for the war in Ukraine.

That was, until Friday as the insurrection kicked off.

In a remarkable statement, Prigozhin said Moscow invaded Ukraine under false pretenses devised by the Russian Ministry of Defense, and that Russia was actually losing ground on the battlefield.

Steve Hall, a former CIA chief of Russia operations, said even seasoned Russia watchers were taken aback by recent events.

Hall said Prigozhin may have felt he had bitten off more than he could chew as his column of troops marched towards Moscow. But at the same time Putin faced the very real prospect of having to defeat some 25,000 Wagner mercenaries.

Sending Prigozhin to Belarus was a face saving move for both sides.

But Hall said Putin comes out ultimately worse off and weakened.

“Putin should have seen it coming literally months ago. We’ll see how it ends up. I don’t think the story is over yet,” Hall said.

As a remotely operated robot maps out the debris field from the fatal Titan submersible implosion, investigators will be reviewing voice recordings from the mother ship that carried the vessel and its five occupants on its journey to the site of the Titanic wreckage, officials said.

Canadian investigators boarded the ship, the Polar Prince, on Saturday “to collect information from the vessel’s voyage data recorder and other vessel systems that contain useful information,” Kathy Fox, chair of the Transportation Safety Board of Canada, said Saturday.

The crew and family members were also being interviewed aboard the Polar Prince, which returned to St. John’s, the capital of Newfoundland and Labrador, with its flags at half-mast Saturday.

The agency’s mission isn’t to assign blame, but rather “find out what happened and why and to find out what needs to change to reduce the chance or the risk of such occurrences in the future,” Fox said.

A voyage data recorder stores audio from the ship’s bridge. “The content of those voice recordings could be useful in our investigation,” Fox said.

The move is the latest in an expanding international investigation into the implosion, which killed all five people who were aboard the submersible during its descent to the Titanic shipwreck Sunday. Military experts found debris in the ocean – about 1,600 feet from the bow of the Titanic – consistent with the loss of the small vessel’s pressure chamber, US Coast Guard Rear Adm. John Mauger said.

Those killed were Stockton Rush, CEO of the vessel’s operator OceanGate Expeditions; British businessman Hamish Harding; French diver Paul-Henri Nargeolet; and Pakistani-born businessman Shahzada Dawood and his son, Suleman, who were British citizens.

Communications between the submersible and its mother ship will also likely be scrutinized. The ship could communicate with the submersible by text messages, and it’s required to communicate every 15 minutes, according to the archived website of OceanGate Expeditions.

Meanwhile, the Royal Canadian Mounted Police is looking into whether “criminal, federal, or provincial laws may possibly have been broken.”

“There’s no suspicion of criminal activity per se, but the RCMP is taking initial steps to assess whether or not we will go down that road,” RCMP Superintendent Kent Osmond said at a Saturday press briefing, adding the agency investigates all reportable offshore deaths.

OceanGate co-founder Guillermo Sohnlein urged people not to rush judgment over the implosion.

The US Coast Guard, which was involved in the dayslong search and rescue operation, is also investigating the implosion, along with the National Transportation Safety Board.

Remotely operated vehicles will continue to gather information from the sea floor, Mauger, the US Coast Guard Rear Admiral, said Thursday.

The vehicles will work to map out the vessel’s debris field, which is more than 2 miles deep in the North Atlantic, Mauger said.

Five different major pieces of debris from the submersible were found Thursday morning, officials said. Each end of the pressure hull was found in a different place, according to Paul Hankins, US Navy director of Salvage Operations and Ocean Engineering.

ROV missions are expected to continue for about another week, according to Jeff Mahoney, spokesperson for Pelagic Research Services, a company that specializes in ocean expedition.

Questions about Titan’s design

The multinational investigation comes amid mounting questions about the Titan’s design.

The company strayed from industry norms by declining a voluntary, rigorous safety review of the vessel, according to an industry leader.

And when submersible expert Karl Stanley was aboard the Titan for an underseas excursion off the coast of the Bahamas in April 2019, he felt there was something wrong with the vessel when loud noises were heard and sent an email to Rush, the CEO of OceanGate Expeditions, sounding the alarm on suspected defects.

“From the intensity of the sounds, the fact that they never totally stopped at depth, and the fact that there were sounds at about 300 feet that indicated a relaxing of stored energy /would indicate that there is an area of the hull that is breaking down/ getting spongy,” Stanley continued.

Uruguay, grappling with a multi-year drought and high temperatures, is running dry.

The situation has become so bad that residents are being forced to drink salty tap water and workers are drilling wells in the center of the capital to reach the water beneath the ground. On Monday, President Luis Lacalle Pou declared a “water emergency for the metropolitan area.”

The situation is sending shockwaves through this relatively wealthy South American nation, which has long defined access to water as a human right. It’s also a warning sign for countries’ vulnerability in the face of drought, which is set to become more frequent and intense as climate change accelerates.

The impacts in Uruguay are stark. Canelón Grande, a vital reservoir that normally provides water to more than a million people in the country’s capital Montevideo has been reduced to a muddy field that locals are now able to cross on foot.

Another, the Paso Severino, which normally serves 60% of the country’s population with fresh water, has seen the largest decrease in water levels on record. Water levels could be depleted completely in early July, according to local media reports.

In response, authorities have been forced to take a series of drastic measures as shortages bite.

Salt in the drinking water

Montevideo’s tap water is basically undrinkable, said Carlos Santos, a member of the National Commission for the Defense of Water and Life (CNDAV) and a lecturer in anthropology at the University of the Republic in Uruguay.

For weeks, the public water utility, OSE, has been mixing salty water from the Río de la Plata estuary with fresh water from the Paso Severino reservoir to stretch supplies, after applying for an exemption to normal rules on salinity in drinking water.

As well as tasting salty, Uruguayan officials say the tap water also has a high level of chlorides, sodium, and trihalomethanes.

There is no health risk for most people, the minister of public health, Karina Rando said, in a May press conference, but she advised those with certain health conditions, including hypertension and kidney disease, as well as those who are pregnant, to limit or even avoid tap water completely.

The Ministry of Public Health has also advised people not to add salt to their children’s food and to use bottled water for making infant formula.

Lacalle Pou said on Monday that “the water supply is guaranteed” but that levels of chloride and sodium in the water will “surely rise” which, according to sanitary criteria, means it will no longer be considered drinkable.

Sales of bottled water have skyrocketed in Montevideo and the neighboring Canelones department, recording a 224% increase for the month of May compared to the same period last year, according to a report from research firm Scanntech Uruguay.

This has left retail groups struggling to keep up with demand, and caused a spike in the amount of plastic waste.

But many residents in Montevideo and the surrounding area can’t afford to buy bottled water, and have been forced to keep drinking from the taps, Santos said.

To try to alleviate some of the financial pressure, the government has introduced tax exemptions for bottled water as part of its water emergency measures.

‘Claiming a basic right’

The situation is shocking for residents of one of South America’s wealthiest countries and one which has a special relationship with water.

Uruguay says it was the first country in the world to enshrine access to water as a fundamental right in a 2004 constitutional amendment. The amendment, which gained support from across the political spectrum, was approved by more than 60% of voters in a referendum.

Water shortages have mobilized people in the country in a way that’s new, Santos said. The capital has seen numerous street protests.

“There is a key thing that Uruguayans really feel and that’s a connection with water,” said Santos. “The anger that people are showing right now demonstrates that. It’s not about rejecting this government, but rather claiming a basic right.”

For its part, the government has said it has been taking steps to tackle the problem.

On Monday, Lacalle Pou announced the construction of a dam and a new water delivery system on the San José river, which will provide an alternative water source once construction is completed in 30 days.

People have been asked not to wash their cars or water their gardens, and tanker trucks have been pressed into service to deliver water to key institutions such as hospitals.

The search for water has even moved to the center of Montevideo, where workers have dug wells in the Parque Batlle, nicknamed the “lungs of the city,” to find alternative sources of water, according to local media reports.

‘We needed to be better prepared’

But some accuse the government of not doing enough. There are longstanding issues with water management in Uruguay, Santos said. “The drought is a problem that is making the situation worse, but there is a historical issue with the irrational use of water which has led us here,” he said.

“We needed to be better prepared for a climate that is increasingly unpredictable,” he said.

Panario recounted a conversation with a farmer who told him that it rains “worse” than before, rather than more or less. “It rains in a more concentrated way… it causes floods, and then there are long periods of drought,” he said.

In May, Lacalle Pou told reporters that “the moment is complex, we must accept it and we assume the responsibility,” but rejected claims that his government hadn’t done enough to deal with the crisis.

Uruguay is not the only country in Latin America suffering drought. Neighboring Argentina is grappling with its worst drought in decades, with severe impacts on farming.

While scientists found that the main cause of the drought in Uruguay and Argentina was not the climate crisis, they said that climate change fueled extreme heat has worsened the impacts.

“Climate change is definitely playing a role in the high temperatures that Argentina and other countries in the region are currently experiencing,” Friederike Otto, climate scientist and co-lead of the World Weather Attribution initiative, said in a statement.

Miguel Doria, a United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) hydrologist for Latin America and the Caribbean, based in Montevideo, said that the country needs to change its relationship with water.

Uruguay “has a cultural bond with water,” said Doria, who added that there has tended to be a perception that there was no need to take care of water as it was almost infinite. “What is really needed is a cultural change,” he said. “This is an opportunity for change, for adaptation.”

Gerardo Amarilla, undersecretary at Uruguay’s Ministry of the Environment, told a United Nations water forum on June 9 that the country needs to value water as a resource and recognize that we live in a world with a changing climate.

In addition to shifting perceptions, Doria said that Uruguay could increase the amount of available water by building new infrastructure such as dams, and updating aging water delivery systems to improve efficiency. It could also reduce demand by promoting water reuse and new habits, he said.

For now, residents of Montevideo don’t expect much relief soon; the drought looks like it’s here to stay.

“We all hope it will rain very soon,” Doria said.

In the end, the uprising was short-lived. But for a brief and chaotic 36 hours, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s grip on power appeared to be under serious threat, as thousands of Wagner fighters led by warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin closed in on the country’s capital.

With the private mercenary group claiming to have seized key military sites in two Russian cities, the Kremlin was forced to deploy heavily armed troops to the streets of Moscow and warn residents to stay indoors.

But the face-off never came.

On Saturday, the Kremlin said a deal had been reached to end the insurrection, with Prigozhin heading to neighboring Belarus and Wagner fighters turning back from their march.

“Now is the moment when blood can be shed,” Prigozhin warned on Saturday. “Therefore, realizing all the responsibility for the fact that Russian blood will be shed from one of the sides, we turn our columns around and leave in the opposite direction to the field camps according to the plan.”

Wagner fighters will face no legal action, and the Kremlin has “always respected (Wagner’s) heroic deeds,” said Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov.

“You will ask me what will happen to Prigozhin personally? The criminal case will be dropped against him. He himself will go to Belarus,” Peskov said, adding that the situation had been resolved “without further losses.”

Restrictions remained in place along a major highway Moscow and in the Tula region on Sunday, after Prigozhin’s attempted advance brought traffic to a grinding halt.

The abrupt about-face follows a rare, remarkable challenge to the Kremlin that threatened to plunge the country into crisis and destabilize its already stumbling war efforts in Ukraine.

Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, a staunch Kremlin ally, condemned Prighozhin’s actions and said, “bloodshed could have happened.”

“The arrogance of one person could lead to such dangerous consequences and draw a large number of people into the conflict,” he added.

The threat of civil war leaves the country – and the Putin regime – in a very different place Sunday than it had been just two days prior. And with Russia possessing the world’s largest nuclear arsenal, that instability has other nations on edge, prompting emergency meetings and high-level talks.

Threat to Putin

Putin has built a reputation as an autocrat with an iron grip on power since he became president in 2000 – with his reign second in length only to Joseph Stalin, the Communist leader whose image Putin has tried to rehabilitate.

The mysterious deaths of Putin critics over the years, and more recent critics of the Ukraine war, has only bolstered the Kremlin’s veneer of total control and the consequences for those who step out of line.

That has now been shaken badly by the Wagner insurrection – with experts warning Putin may be more exposed than he has been in the last 23 years.

“Putin is clearly weakened. There is blood in the water,” said Evelyn Farkas, executive director of the US-based think tank McCain Institute. She added that this near-crisis could be seen as an opportunity for Putin critics or rivals within the Kremlin.

Some international observers have expressed surprise at what they view as a lackluster Russian response to the insurrection, with the lack of a rapid, cohesive strategy highlighting the military’s weakened capabilities.

Putin will also have to contend with shaky public sentiment within Russia. Civilian support for the war in Ukraine remains high, but cracks had begun to show by early this year, with some Russians tuning out the propaganda on air and others finding ways to circumvent Internet restrictions.

In the months since, the war has arrived on Russian soil as Ukraine launched its counteroffensive. Russia’s Belgorod region saw a cross-border attack by anti-Putin Russian nationals in May, while the Kremlin itself came under alleged drone attacks.

The location adds to the moment’s significance: Rostov-on-Don is an important regional capital with logistical and strategic value, housing the headquarters of Russia’s Southern Military District.

Further north, the governor of Voronezh said on Sunday Wagner units were departing “steadily and without incident,” after traveling through the region in their advance towards Moscow.

“All of this is spilling out into the Russian heartland,” said retired US Army Brig. Gen. Peter Zwack on Saturday.

Beth Sanner, former deputy director of National Intelligence for Mission Integration, said the incident could see Putin “double down on repression in Russia” in a bid to wrest back control – as well as step up its fighting in Ukraine, in the face of international scrutiny.

“He has been humiliated,” Sanner said. “He’s going to try to reassert (his strength) … Putin will not just stand there and allow all of this to flourish and blossom.”

World on edge

The insurrection has also turned a spotlight to Russia’s nuclear capabilities and what might push Putin to use them – questions that have loomed over the war in Ukraine ever since it began.

Putin has repeatedly engaged in nuclear saber-rattling, announcing earlier this year that it would store tactical nuclear weapons in Belarus, one of Moscow’s closest allies, which helped launch the initial invasion of Ukraine. The first of those weapons arrived this month.

A State Department spokesperson added that the US has “no reason to adjust our conventional or nuclear force posture,” and that it has “long-standing, established communication channels with Russia on nuclear issues.”

But those channels are now significantly narrower than before. Earlier this year, Russia suspended participation in its only nuclear arms control treaty with the US – meaning the two nations are no longer required to share information like the location of certain missiles and launchers.

US intelligence officials had anticipated last year that there was an internal power struggle between the Wagner group and the Russian government, as the invasion of Ukraine stalled, according to top US officials.

They even saw signs that Prigozhin was making preparations for a major challenge, including by amassing weapons and ammunition, said one Western intelligence official and another person familiar with the intelligence.

But they didn’t anticipate Prigozhin would storm the Rostov region – and the insurrection unfolded so quickly that it caught US and European officials off guard, sources say.

US officials convened emergency meetings on Friday night to assess the events, while US Secretary of State Antony Blinken spoke with counterparts from Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, United Kingdom, and the European Union on Saturday.

The leader of the US, United Kingdom, France and Germany also spoke on Saturday, before Wagner pulled back from its advance, according to Downing Street.

Countries near Russia are also on guard, with the president of former Soviet state Kazakhstan scheduling an emergency meeting of his Security Council on Sunday. The council will form a plan to contain any “possible negative consequences” of the insurrection that could impact Kazakh citizens or the economy, said the presidential office.