Canada and China have become embroiled in a fresh diplomatic row after Ottawa summoned Beijing’s ambassador to respond to allegations that Beijing tried to intimidate a Canadian politician and interfere in its elections.

Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister Mélanie Joly announced the summoning of the ambassador Thursday, adding that Canada was considering taking retaliatory action over the allegations, which China vigorously denies.

“All options are on the table,” Joly said – including diplomatic expulsions.

Joly’s comments to members of parliament came during a heated exchange with opposition lawmaker Michael Chong – the alleged target of the intimidation, who has in recent days heavily criticized Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government for what he sees as their slow response to the allegations.

The news follows revelations, first reported by the Globe and Mail newspaper, that the Canadian Security Intelligence Service (CSIS) found an accredited Chinese diplomat in the country had targeted Chong and his relatives in China following his criticisms of Beijing’s treatment of its Uyghur minorities.

The intelligence service also said that Beijing had tried to sway the outcome of Canada’s federal elections in 2019 and 2021.

China responds

China on Thursday insisted the claims were “totally groundless,” accused the Canadian media and politicians of “spreading disinformation,” and warned Canada against going “further down the wrong and dangerous path.”

During the summons, China’s Ambassador to Canada, Cong Peiwu “protested strongly” against the “threat to expel the relevant Chinese diplomatic and consular personnel based on rumors of so-called ‘China interference’ hyped up by some Canadian politicians and media,” according to a statement from the Chinese embassy.

“China’s diplomatic and consular officials’ normal performance (daily activities) must not be smeared, and China’s sovereignty, security, and development interests must not be violated,” Cong said.

He told Canadian officials at the meeting “to immediately stop this self-directed political farce” and warned that China would “play along every step of the way until the end” should the Canadian side continue to “make provocations.”

China’s Consulate-General in Toronto meanwhile expressed “strong dissatisfaction” and “firm opposition” to the summoning of the ambassador, and insisted its officers had never engaged in activities “inconsistent with their official capacities.”

“The claim has no factual basis and is totally groundless,” the Consulate-General said in a statement.

It accused some Canadian media and politicians of “spreading disinformation with intent to damage the reputation and image of the Chinese Consulate-General” and “maliciously disrupt normal exchange and cooperation between the two sides.”

Tipping point

Allegations of Chinese efforts to interfere in Canadian politics have been swirling for weeks, but reached a tipping point this week following the revelations by the Globe and Mail.

According to the report, Chinese operatives tried to swing some local parliamentary races during national elections held in 2019 and 2021. However, the agency stopped short of alleging that China succeeded or in any way changed the outcome of those elections.

The allegations also include claims that an accredited Chinese diplomat was involved in a plot to intimidate Chong in 2021 after he sponsored a motion in Canada’s parliament to condemn China’s treatment of Uyghur minorities, labeling their treatment by China genocide.

Chong has described his apparent targeting as disturbing, but has also said it it not surprising – either for him or Canada’s large Chinese diaspora – and has focused much of his criticism on the Canadian government’s response, which he says has been too slow to act.

In her comments to parliamentarians on Thursday, Joly said Canada’s government needed to carefully weigh how China might react.

China would “of course” take action against Canada’s “economic interest, consumer interest and also diplomatic interests,” Joly said, adding that, “I know that we are under pressure to go fast, (but) we need to make sure as well that we protect our democracy.”

Relations between Ottawa and Beijing have been tense in recent years.

In one especially high-profile example, two Canadians – former diplomat Michael Kovrig and businessman Michael Spavor – were detained by China for nearly three years.

Their arrest on espionage charges in late 2018 came shortly after Canada arrested Chinese businesswoman and Huawei executive Meng Wanzhou on a US warrant related to the company’s business dealings in Iran.

Beijing repeatedly denied that their cases were a political retaliation, but the two men were released on the same day Meng was allowed by Canada to return to China.

Chong responded to Joly’s remarks by demanding Canada expel the diplomat regardless of any possible blowback from China.

“If we do not take that course of action, minister, we are basically putting up a giant billboard for all the authoritarian states around the world that says we are open for foreign interference threat activities on Canadian soil targeting Canadian citizens and you can conduct these activities with zero consequences – and that’s why this individual needs to be sent packing,” Chong said.

Trudeau under fire

Chong and others say questions remain as to why the Trudeau government did not act sooner to acknowledge and act on the intelligence.

“It’s astounding that the government hasn’t taken action to expel this individual,” Chong told a press briefing in Ottawa Tuesday.

“And for the government of Canada to continue to accredit this individual and allow this individual to remain in Canada is a complete abdication of responsibility,” he added.

Critics have also questioned why Chong and other politicians were not forewarned of the intelligence suggesting he had been targeted.

While Trudeau was briefed on some of the intelligence agency’s findings, he said Tuesday at a press briefing that he had not been briefed specifically on the alleged targeting of Chong.

Trudeau said he first heard this when it was reported in the media, as the spy agency had felt the intelligence was not significant enough to notify either the prime minister’s office or Chong himself.

Trudeau said that reasoning was a mistake.

“We’re making it very, very clear to CSIS and our intelligence officials that when there are concerns that talk specifically about any MP, or about their family, those need to be elevated, even if CSIS doesn’t feel that it’s a sufficient level of concern for them to take more direct action,” Trudeau said.

A right to know?

Chong, a member of the opposition conservative party, has criticized Trudeau’s explanation as unacceptable, saying he and others in the Chinese community deserve to know if they are at risk.

“I have not spoken to my family in China in years, I like many, many Canadians across the country whose family lives in authoritarian states have had to face the difficult dilemma of how to protect the family in these authoritarian states,” Chong said, adding that the Chinese diplomat who allegedly targeted him still lives and works in Canada and enjoys diplomatic immunity.

Chong and other opposition party politicians are not the only ones demanding a tough response from Ottawa.

Among the voices calling for retaliation is Dennis Molinaro, a former national security adviser and now a professor of legal studies at Ontario Tech University.

“I think the Canadian public is aware of that now and recognizes that and supports a lot tougher action in terms of Canada protecting itself from these kinds of threats,” he added.

Napoli won its first Serie A title in 33 years after coming from behind to secure a 1-1 draw against Udinese at the Dacia Arena, Udine, on Thursday.

The league title is the club’s first since 1990, when the late Diego Maradona – after whom the team’s home stadium is named – inspired it to the Scudetto.

It’s only the third time Napoli has won Serie A and the club’s success sparked jubilant celebrations among the players and also in the southern Italian city, many of whom had congregated at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

Sandi Lovric’s shot gave Udinese a first-half lead, but Napoli forward Victor Osimhen made it 1-1 early in the second half, guiding the ball home after Khvicha Kvaratskhelia’s shot was saved following a corner.

Osimhen, who is Serie A’s leading goalscorer this season, has been key to Napoli’s success and this was his 22nd league goal of the campaign.

The 24-year-old Nigerian scored his goal in front of the traveling Napoli fans, who celebrated the equalizer deliriously.

Fireworks and flares

Even before kick-off, Napoli fans flooded the streets of Naples with thousands of supporters making their way into the club’s home stadium to watch the action in Udine unfold on big screens.

Others set off fireworks and flares in the streets as crowds gathered together in the hope of watching their side finally secure the title – Napoli had squandered an opportunity on Sunday after it unexpectedly drew against Salernitana in front of home support.

Had Napoli won that game Luciano Spalletti’s side would have become the earliest team to win the Serie A title in history – with six games remaining in the league season.

Thursday’s first-half didn’t go to plan for Napoli, though, when it found itself 1-0 down at the break after Lovric’s brilliant strike in the 13th minute.

But Napoli knew a point would be enough to secure a historic title and came out in the second half rejuvenated, buoyed by the traveling fans who created a brilliant atmosphere inside the ground.

According to the BT Sport broadcast, nearly 11,000 Napoli supporters had traveled to the Dacia Arena to witness such a long-awaited moment for their team.

Those fans were rewarded when Osimhen, so often the hero for Napoli this season, scored the equalizer in the 52nd minute.

The celebrations in Udine were only matched by those back in Napoli with the city exploding with excitement – videos showed flares being let off alongside a light show at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

The draw was all that was needed for the visitors who left Udine with the biggest prize in Italian football.

Napoli fans ran onto the pitch to celebrate when the referee blew the full-time whistle, with players being mobbed in jubilant scenes.

“Seeing Neapolitans happy is enough to give you a sense of that joy they are feeling,” Napoli coach Spalletti, who at 64 became the oldest manager to win Serie A, told DAZN after the game.

“These people will look to this moment when life gets hard, they have every right to celebrate like this. You feel a bit more relaxed knowing that you’ve given them this moment of happiness.”

AS Roma manager Jose Mourinho said he wore a microphone during his team’s Italian Serie A game against Monza on Wednesday in order to “protect” himself.

Speaking to reporters after the match, Mourinho said: “I am not stupid, you know. I went to the game with a microphone. I recorded the match – from the moment I left the locker room to the moment I returned. I protected myself.”

The 60-year-old manager has been sent off three times in Serie A this season – most recently in February during a defeat against Cremonese.

Mourinho chastised match referee Daniele Chiffi after the game, describing the official as “the worst I have ever seen in my 20-year career” to Roma’s in-house media team, as well as telling DAZN that Chiffi is “technically horrible” and “not empathetic from a human point of view.”

The Portuguese manager also suggested to Roma’s media team that other clubs influence which referees officiate their games.

“I have to say that as a club, we don’t have the power that other clubs do – to say and demand: ‘This referee – I don’t want him,’” he said.

“There are other clubs that do that, and we know clearly they do that because there are referees that never officiate these teams.”

Roma’s draw with Monza leaves the team in seventh place in the league table, outside the qualification places for next season’s European competitions.
Roma’s next fixture is on Saturday against Inter Milan, which currently sit fourth in the Serie A table.

University of Alabama head baseball coach Brad Bohannon was fired for, “among other things, violating the standards, duties, and responsibilities expected of University employees,” the school announced Thursday.

Bohannon’s dismissal follows “alleged suspicious activity” last Friday at the sportsbook at The Great American Ballpark in Cincinnati, Ohio, according to an ESPN report that cites the Ohio Casino Commission.

The casino commission is investigating alleged suspicious wagering on the Crimson Tide’s April 28 game against the Louisiana State University Tigers, ESPN reported, citing unnamed industry sources.

No. 1 LSU beat Alabama 8-6 in that game.

No direct link between Bohannon’s firing and the suspicious bets have been announced. Jason Jackson will serve as the Alabama’s interim head coach, the school said.

Per ESPN, the state casino commission’s investigation is centered around multiple bets on the Tigers to win from the same customer, who has been unidentified, multiple industry sources told ESPN Thursday.

The casino commission was first alerted about the alleged activity last Friday by independent Las Vegas-based integrity firm US Integrity, according to ESPN. US Integrity works with the Ohio Casino Commission and the Southeastern Conference to monitor the betting markets.

The association is “monitoring the situation” but declined to comment further on “current, pending or potential investigations” due to confidentiality rules, the spokesperson added.

On Wednesday night, SEC Commissioner Greg Sankey said the conference is investigating the situation.

“We are aware of reports related to the suspension of wagering Alabama baseball games,” Sankey said. “We will continue to monitor available information and any regulatory activity.

“As many states have acted to legalize sports gambling, we are reminded of the threats gambling may pose on competitive integrity. Together with our member universities, we will continue to emphasize the importance of regulating, overseeing and providing education related to sports gambling activity.”

In an updated statement Thursday, Sankey said Alabama took “swift action after information about baseball sports wagering activity was questioned by industry regulators.”

On Thursday, Pennsylvania became the third state to order sportsbooks to halt betting on Alabama baseball, joining Ohio and New Jersey as investigations are still ongoing, per ESPN.

A spokesperson for the Pennsylvania Gaming Control Board told ESPN the ban on betting on Alabama baseball was put in place “as a matter of precaution” and will last until “further notice.”

Currently, the New Jersey gaming operators and their independent fraud monitors have not “detected any suspicious wagering” in the state, the spokesperson added.

Ronnie Johns, executive director of the Louisiana Gaming Control Board, said he didn’t suspect any wrongdoing on the LSU side of things.

“The problem,” Johns said to NOLA.com, “would have been whether someone on the Alabama side was suspicious of activity.”

Bohannon was hired as the Crimson Tide’s head coach in June 2017 and compiled a 166-124 record with one NCAA tournament appearance coming in 2021.

Alabama is 30-15 this season and scheduled to begin a series against No. 5 Vanderbilt on Thursday night in Tuscaloosa, Alabama.

A swarm of bees touched down on a parked Delta Air Lines aircraft Wednesday, delaying a flight from Houston to Atlanta for about three hours.

“Bee-lieve it or not, Delta flight 1682 from Houston-Bush to Atlanta took a delay yesterday afternoon after a friendly group of bees evidently wanted to talk shop with the winglet of our airplanes, no doubt to share the latest about flying conditions at the airport,” the airline said in a playful statement after social media pictures created a buzz.

Delta Air Lines did not say exactly what measures were considered to resolve the situation, but ultimately, the bees were displaced by pushing the aircraft back from the gate using ground equipment with no passengers on board.

The welfare of the bees and ensuring that aircraft surfaces were not contaminated were factors in the delay.

Delta apologized to customers on the delayed flight.

Twitter user Anjali Enjeti live tweeted the incident from inside George Bush Intercontinental Airport, reporting on various measures that were evidently floated and rejected to get the bees to take off from their perch on the Airbus A320’s winglet.

My flight leaving Houston is delayed because bees have congregated on the tip of one of the wings. They won’t let us board until they remove the bees. But how on earth will this happen? Won’t they leave the wing when we take off? pic.twitter.com/DhodBz0m5n

— Anjali Enjeti (she/her) (@AnjaliEnjeti) May 3, 2023

Enjeti mentions a beekeeper and pest control in her live updates, which were apparently gleaned from Delta announcements and word of mouth from other passengers. She also gave a blow-by-blow of jockeying for position by the airport windows in hopes of witnessing a beekeeping operation, complete with snacks for the show.

Alas, no beekeeper appeared, according to Enjeti’s account, much to her disappointment.

“Would have a big highlight of my life to see a bee keeper de-bee a plane wing. It’s going to be hard to let go of this. The disappointment is real,” she tweeted.

Bees at airports

Bee swarms on aircraft are rare but not unheard of. A swarm of bees delayed an Air India flight in 2019. Water cannons were used in that case to displace the bees on the aircraft scheduled for a flight from Kolkata to Agartala.

In 2016, an F-22 Raptor fighter jet was temporarily grounded by 20,000 bees. A beekeeper helped resolve that situation in Virginia.

At passenger airports, beekeepers are becoming increasingly common.

A 2022 report from the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine details a number of airports in the United States and internationally that have established “pollinator-friendly practices and programs that restore habitat for bees and bring public awareness and appreciation to these fascinating insects.”

According to the report, Hamburg Airport in Germany was the first airport to introduce an on-airport apiary in 1999. Chicago O’Hare was the first US airport to add a major apiary.

The Federal Aviation Administration is involved in the research related to airport bee programs.

The airport involved in Wednesday’s bee-related delay hasn’t joined in airport beekeeping efforts – yet.

For years, Italians have been notoriously prickly about preserving their culinary traditions. Pineapple on pizza? Non si fa. Spaghetti bolognese? Che orrore.

But now, some Italians seem to be wising up to the fact that other countries can make good Italian food, too.

Enter 50 Top Pizza, an international guide run by Italians that produces a series of annual rankings rewarding some of the best pizzerias on the planet. The 2023 European list has just been published – and, according to 1,000 anonymous “inspectors” across the continent, the best pizza in Europe is in… Spain.

Sartoria Panatieri, in Barcelona, was judged the best on the continent. The award was announced at a ceremony, which was also held in Barcelona.

Second place went to Copenhagen restaurant Bæst, while coming in third was 50 Kalò in London, a spin-off of the original 50 Kalò pizzeria in Naples.

There’s a catch of course. Italy was not in competition. The entity – a pizza guide, which has been ranking restaurants since 2017 – has separate listings for the 50 best pizzerias in the cradle of pizza.

Sartoria Panatieri is run by Rafa Panatieri and Jorge Sastre. Panatieri grew up in Brazil, but with Italian origins, from Pisa and Calabria. Initially training as a veterinarian, he changed tack to become a chef in South America and Italy, before moving to Spain. He worked in Michelin-starred restaurant Nectari in Barcelona before opening his pizzeria.

Panatieri also took home the award for Pizza of the Year 2023 with his “Salsa de tomates cherry asados, mozzarella y holandesa de albahaca” wood-fired pizza: tomato sauce, mozzarella, roasted cherry tomatoes and basil hollandaise. The pizza costs €12.90 ($14.20). Pie prices at the restaurant start from $12.

Meanwhile, 50 Kalò, which had been awarded first place in previous rankings, has slid down the list in recent years. However, it did take home the award for the “best fried pasta pie” this year.

50 Top Pizza has listings for pizzerias across the globe. They’re created by around 1,000 “inspectors” around the world, who first vote for the best places in their own countries, and then make anonymous visits.

Guerra said that Neapolitan style pizza is still the world’s favorite, but that the inspectors aren’t specifically looking for it.

They reward “establishments that have personality and consistency, offer great pizza (of any style) and have friendly service,” she said, adding that Sartoria Panatieri and Bæst are both Neapolitan-inspired but with “a completely different personality.”

Guerra said that Italians are rightly proud of their culinary traditions.

“Italy is the country of pizza and Naples is the capital of pizza, it is normal that Italians have a lot of pride and strongly defend this product,” she said.

“However, every Italian who travels [abroad] can easily realize how much the quality has grown in all European capitals. This is thanks to so many Italian pizza makers in the world but also thanks to people of all nationalities who have learned the art of making pizza in Italy or with Italians. The model is almost always the Neapolitan pizza but then it is expressed in so many ways.”

She explained that the rise of real Italian pizza abroad is a relatively recent phenomenon. “Ten years ago in London or Paris you would find so many pizzerias where an Italian would find it hard to identify himself,” Guerra said. “You would see a national product treated very badly. Today this is not the case.”

As for the Italy rankings, they will be revealed in Rome on July 12.

They’re preceded by the top 50 listings in Asia-Pacific (May 30) and USA (June 27). The big one – worldwide rankings – will be held on September 13 in Naples. The top 25 ranked European pizzerias will go through to the world finals, in which 100 from across the globe will be ranked against each other.

So why do we all love pizza? For Guerra, it’s “a food that brings joy, simple and satisfying – and is the only food at an affordable price that’s prepared in front of your eyes.

“The real value of pizza, especially Neapolitan pizza, is that it is healthy food with fresh ingredients, freshly prepared at an affordable price,” she added.

50 Top Pizza’s top 10 European pizzerias for 2023

1: Sartoria Panatieri: Barcelona, Spain

2: Bæst: Copenhagen, Denmark

3: 50 Kalò: London, UK

4: Via Toledo Enopizzeria: Vienna, Austria

5: Pizza Zulù: Fürth, Germany

6: Fratelli Figurato: Madrid, Spain

7: Forza: Helsinki, Finland

8: Napoli on the Road: London, UK

9: nNea: Amsterdam, Netherlands

10: La Balmesina: Barcelona, Spain

A pregnant Thai woman arrested on suspicion of murdering her friend with cyanide has now been charged with at least 13 counts of premeditated murder, police have confirmed.

Police have requested arrest warrants in 14 cases of alleged murder involving Sararat, with 13 approved by the court so far and one still pending, Surachate said in a press conference on Wednesday.

In the potentially linked cases currently under investigation by police, all the victims ate or drank with Sararat in the run up to their deaths. All 14 of the deceased – as well as one survivor – were poisoned with cyanide, Surachate said.

Sararat, who was remanded in custody last week, has denied the accusations, National Police Chief Gen. Damrongsak Kittiprapas added at the same press conference.

Police are also investigating Sararat’s partner Witoon Rangsiwuthaporn, a senior police official who held the rank of Lt. Colonel.

Earlier this week, Witoon was fired from his job as a local deputy police chief. He is also facing charges of fraud and embezzlement related to the alleged murders, Surachate confirmed.

The couple are “divorced on paper” but have maintained a relationship, Surachate said, adding that Witoon has denied any knowledge of the murders.

Police have also confirmed that Sararat is pregnant.

“Let’s see how much he can do or if he is really sincere,” Surachate said.

Police believe the killings may have had a financial motive, with victims allegedly lending Sararat money in the run up to their deaths and investigators probing her transactions and debts as a result.

Consumer debt is a massive problem in Thailand, accounting for nearly 90% of the country’s GDP as of 2022, according to the Bank of Thailand.

The investigation into so many murders has transfixed Thailand with local media providing daily updates.

Serial murders are relatively rare and the vast majority of perpetrators of such crimes are men.

In the United States, the FBI defines serial murder as two or more killings separated by a span of time.

Fewer than one percent of homicides during a given year are committed by serial killers, the FBI says.

Ecuador was known as the “isla de paz” – an island of peace – in the 1980s, when compared to its neighbors Colombia and Peru, some of the world’s biggest producers of cocaine.

But a deadly escalation of violence has upended that reputation in past few years, as rights groups say the Andean nation has clocked some of the highest homicide rates in the region.

In April alone, the country has seen a prison riot, explosions in the port city of Guayaquil, and the slaying of at least nine people during an armed attack of a fishing port.

Civilians are finding themselves caught between criminal groups battling for control of the cocaine supply chain, which passes through Ecuador, according to Glaeldys González, an expert on organized crime at the International Crisis Group.

And Ecuadorian authorities have struggled to tackle this public security crisis “efficiently because it is mired in (a) political crisis,” González says.

Ecuador’s President Guillermo Lasso is at the center of this storm, and his popularity has tanked amid widespread discontent with spiraling crime rates.

“Lasso has not delivered” on campaign promises of lower taxes and more foreign direct investment, said Luis Ortiz, an Ecuadorian political analyst and development consultant. Nor has he has not been able to convey a successful strategy to stop the violence, he added.

Lasso faces an impeachment vote in the next few weeks over accusations of embezzlement before he took office by opposition legislators – allegations which Lasso denies.

Dealt a bad hand

It was not always so hard for the self-made millionaire, who ran on a platform of liberal values before coming into power in 2021, promising more foreign direct investment and encouragement of entrepreneurship. He was lauded for a successful Covid-19 vaccination drive at the start of his term, enjoying high approval ratings at the time.

It went downhill soon after.

Lasso survived an impeachment attempt amid weeks-long protests over rising fuel and food prices last year, and his name emerged in the “Pandora Papers,” a 2021 expose of financial secrets and offshore dealings of dozens of heads of state and public officials.

Ecuadoran law prohibits public servants from holding assets in tax havens. Lasso told Ecuador’s legislative commission investigating him that he had not evaded taxes and that his tax trajectory was legally supported.

But opposition lawmakers have renewed their efforts to impeach him, and the President’s popular support is evaporating as crime skyrockets.

The dramatic rise in crime that has fueled anger at his government is a trend that predated his presidency. Before Lasso took office, Ecuador had already become a key transit hub for cocaine due to its location between Peru and Colombia, and the dollarization of its economy in 2000 made it an easy location to launder money, say analysts.

“The judicial system, the institution that oversees bank transfers and bank transactions – they don’t even have money to make photocopies, much less track transactions that could potentially be linked to organized crime,” he said.

Allegations of corruption have also marred the courts and police, with the US withdrawing visas from high-ranking officers of Ecuadorian state security forces, alleged to be linked to drug trafficking, and several judges and lawyers.

Lasso, who has a weak mandate in Congress and has struggled to build coalitions, has implemented several state of emergencies to tamp the bloodletting in the country, which has seen hundreds killed in brutal prison riots between rival gangs, to very little success, say critics.

His approach has become more haphazard following the second impeachment attempt. Last week, he declared organized criminal groups as terrorists, a move that empowered the military in pursuing gangs – despite allegations of corruption that cloud the security forces.

His embrace of his predecessor’s austerity package has seen Lasso incentivize the private sector to step in on security issues, which Ortiz described as being a disaster.

This includes Lasso’s recent authorization of civilians to use guns, a move which saw “private security companies (becoming) the first to raise their hand to say: ‘hey, no way, what we are seeing right now is criminals is more equipped than police,’” Ortiz said.

Fraying relationships

The mood further soured against Lasso this year when Ecuadorian media outlet La Posta accused the president’s brother-in-law Danilo Carrera of corruption, including a cash for executive positions scheme and fake energy contracts.

Following the report, Lasso asked prosecutors to investigate Carrera over his business and personal relationship with Ruben Cherres – whom authorities sought to arrest but was found murdered in late March.

The center-right leader is one of the few friends Washington has in the region, but even that relationship may be fraying.

While several US senators have lauded Lasso, and Secretary of State Antony Blinken noted the US’s strong partnership with the country during a 2021 visit. But in April, a group US Congressmembers sent a letter to US President Joe Biden urging him to “re-evaluate our government’s close relations with the Lasso government” and look into the corruption allegations surrounding Lasso and his associates.

Lasso would be replaced by Vice President Alfredo Borrero if impeached, but he suggested to the Financial Times last week that it won’t get that far, saying he would invoke a constitutional clause that would force elections for his role and congress.

The gambit would see Lasso rule by presidential decree and hold elections in six months’ time, and critics can see why Lasso might be tempted to opt for the nuclear option.

“If the opposition’s got the 92 votes that they need to get rid of him, he’s going to press that button and give himself six months to find a way out,” Guillaume Long, a former foreign minister for Ecuador who is now a senior policy analyst at the Center for Economic and Policy Research.

If early elections are triggered, the 67-year-old Lasso has said he will run again despite losing a lot of political capital. In February, opposition parties won key mayoral positions in Quito and Guayaquil and a Lasso-backed referendum on eight reforms, including allowing the extradition of criminals, failed.

As the clock runs on Lasso’s next move, violence and economic insecurity are leading more Ecuadorians to leave the country, with statistics showing thousands making their way north through the treacherous Darien Gap this year.

When Iranian evacuees from Sudan were being flown out of Saudi Arabia on Saturday, a top Saudi military official went as far as boarding their plane back home to bid them a warm farewell.

“(This is) your country,” the kingdom’s Western Region Commander Major General Ahmed Al-Dabais declared to the departing Iranians as he held hands with Hassan Zarangar, Iran’s charge d’affaires to the kingdom. “If you need anything in Saudi, you’re most welcome… Iran and Saudi, they are brothers.”

Sixty-five Iranians evacuated from Sudan by the Saudi military were welcomed in the Saudi Red Sea city of Jeddah with flowers, images of which were broadcast on both Iranian and Saudi state television. Dabais told Zarangar that the friendly welcome for the Iranians was “from the directives of the leadership, from the king, from the crown prince.”

Such images would have been inconceivable just months ago, when Iran and Saudi Arabia were bitter regional foes engaging in multiple proxy conflicts across the Middle East. But the two buried the hatchet in March with Chinese mediation after nearly seven years of hostility, and hope to re-open embassies soon.

The kingdom is now on a mission to revamp its global image and mend fences with former foes.

The diplomatic efforts are the latest in a series of moves that position Riyadh in a peacemaking role, which analysts say is a strategic pivot away from more than a decade of a confrontational and interventionist foreign policy.

Riyadh’s new foreign policy is more independent and prioritizes Saudi interests, she said.

Sudan diplomacy

The kingdom’s latest attempt at diplomacy came in Sudan, where forces loyal to two rival generals, Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) commander Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan and Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, head of the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), are vying for control. Hundreds have been killed and thousands injured in the fighting.

In images broadcast widely across Saudi news outlets, Saudi Arabian forces were seen evacuating thousands of evacuees from Port Sudan to the coastal city of Jeddah, a 12-hour journey across the Red Sea. Men, women and children were given Saudi flags to wave as cameras documented their arrival.

The kingdom on Monday said that it has evacuated more than 5,000 people from over 100 nationalities.

With the help of the United States, Saudi Arabia last week also mediated a brief truce between Sudan’s SAF commander Al-Burhan and RSF chief Dagalo. The truce was extended for another 72 hours on Monday, and the kingdom is reportedly joining the United Arab Emirates, the US and Egypt in efforts to broker a truce between the two commanders.

“The Saudi effort in Sudan was an opportunity to put Saudi’s considerable resources in the Red Sea at the international community’s disposal to help,” said Shihabi. “And that can only reflect well on the Kingdom.”

This new diplomacy comes as Saudi Arabia prioritizes economic growth at home, which requires regional stability to succeed. The $1 trillion economy has been on a quest to move away from its traditional reputation as a conservative, combative oil producer, and towards a global economic player and key regional tourism and business hub.

Its former interventionist policies, Jacobs said, only “led to greater regional instability and increased security threats against Saudi Arabia.”

Aside from Iran, Riyadh is mending ties with Yemen’s Houthis, Turkey and Syria’s regime. It has been spearheading efforts to bring Syria’s pariah President Bashar al-Assad back into the Arab fold over a decade after severing ties with it.

And last month, senior leaders from the Palestinian militant group Hamas were seen performing an Islamic pilgrimage in Mecca. Two days later, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas met Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, known as MBS, in the nearby city of Jeddah. Hamas and the Palestinian Authority have been at odds for over a decade. Saudi Arabia’s ties with Hamas had been strained for the past decade too.

Credibility challenges

Riyadh’s mediation efforts have also gone beyond the Middle East. Last year, the government said it brokered a prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine that saw 10 detainees released, including two American veterans and five British citizens.

The kingdom in December said that it also helped mediate the release of basketball star player Brittney Griner from Russian detention, in exchange for Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout.

Saudi efforts at revamping its image as a peace-broker may face credibility challenges, however, given its near decade-long combative foreign policy and the bad press it attracted.

As peace talks between Yemen’s Houthis and the Saudi delegation took place in the Yemeni capital Sanaa last month, Houthi officials were keen to point out that Saudi Arabia is not a mediator in the Yemen conflict, as it has claimed, but rather a participant.

The kingdom is now trying to extricate itself from Yemen after intervening in the civil war there in 2015 following the Houthi takeover of Sanaa. In that war, it mobilized an Arab coalition that included Sudan’s RSF. That group is party to the Sudan conflict that Saudi Arabia is trying to help end.

“We’re really frankly not looking backwards,” he said.

Despite its controversial past, Saudi Arabia may still carry enough influence to bring quarreling parties to the negotiating table, analysts say. The oil producer is home to Islam’s holiest sites and is one of the richest Arab nations. It has used its wealth to build bridges with some of its former foes, especially after a brief surge in oil prices that followed Russia’s invasion of Ukraine last year.

“Saudi (Arabia) does not pretend to be an impartial mediator but its voice carries weight with many parties in the region,” Shihabi said, adding that where it can, Saudi Arabia wants to use that influence to reduce tensions.

Ukraine says its preparations for a spring counter-offensive are almost complete. When it’s launched, probably in the south, it will mark a pivotal moment in the conflict. But the Russians have had nearly six months to prepare the ground – and build an elaborate array of defenses. Breaking through will present a huge challenge.

The defenses continue for hundreds of miles across the meandering southern front – where Ukrainian forces are expected to concentrate their counter-offensive in the coming weeks.

The challenge for the Ukrainians will be to bypass or overcome such obstacles at speed, creating momentum that causes Russian command and control to melt down.

They showed that “Russia’s positions are most concentrated near the front lines in the south-eastern Zaporizhzhia region, in the east and across the narrow strip of land connecting the Crimean Peninsula to the rest of Ukraine,” according to the Reuters analysis.

Russian defenses included, for example, anti-tank ditches near Polohy stretching for 30 kilometers (19 miles), as well as extra fortifications around important towns like Tokmak. This area will be critical should Ukrainian forces try to advance towards the city of Melitopol and split Russian forces in the south.

Maxar’s Stephen Wood says these defenses are replicated across a huge stretch of territory, from Crimea in the south all the way to parts of Donetsk.

The Russian-appointed head of Crimea, Sergey Aksyonov, said earlier this month that “our armed forces have built a modern, deeply-echeloned defense.”

Months of preparation

These defenses began to appear after Russian forces withdrew from part of Kherson region in November, and essentially established a new defensive line stretching across largely rural areas of southern Ukraine. The UK Defense Ministry said in November that two factories were producing concrete “dragons’ teeth” tank obstacles.

Such defenses, however, are only as good as the forces assigned to each sector. On their own they are a limited impediment. Which is why the Russians have pushed more units into southern Ukraine. These defensive lines have become critical to their overall goals.

Ukrainian officials have frequently relayed accounts from people in occupied areas such as Mariupol and Berdyansk of long Russian convoys passing through and dozens of buildings being appropriated as military accommodation.

Satellite imagery shows that a large Russian base in northern Crimea that in February had been full of equipment, including artillery and tanks was much emptier in late March and almost completely vacated by last week. It’s unclear where the equipment went but likely that it was sent north to reinforce Russian defensive lines.

Even so, it’s exceptionally difficult to tell how many Russian troops – and of what quality – are assigned to each section of such a long frontline. It will be critical for the Ukrainians to disrupt supply lines, destroy ammunition depots and hit fuel infrastructure (among many other tasks) ahead of the offensive.

That will make sustaining those defending troops harder.

The Ukrainians will be assessing where Russian weaknesses are because momentum once the counteroffensive begins will be critical.

No surprises

Ukrainian officials have acknowledged that unlike last September’s sudden sweep through much of Kharkiv region, they may lack the element of surprise in any larger counter-offensive.

Russian-appointed officials in Zaporizhzhia claim there is already a large build-up of Ukrainian forces in the area. Vladimir Rogov, head of “We Together with Russia” in Zaporizhzhia said Thursday that several new Ukrainian brigades were due to arrive at the front line by the end of this week.

“These brigades are being transferred to the existing 12,000 fighters in the area,” Rogov said. His claim could not be verified.

Ukrainian officials do not disclose the movement of units.

NATO officials say that 98% of the fighting vehicles pledged to Ukraine are now in-country and the Ukrainian Defense Mnister, Oleksii Reznikov, said Friday that preparations for the counter-offensive are almost complete.

But Ukrainian units will have to master combined arms maneuvers with this new equipment, integrating mine-clearing, the removal of tank obstacles and bridge-building with their assault battalions. That is complex coordination.

The package of US aid announced in March included armored vehicle-launched bridges, which would accompany advancing units — as well as demolition munitions.

And they will have to work with excellent coordination and communication to succeed. Some analysts have compared what the Ukrainians need to do with the D-Day landings, of which German General Erwin Rommel said at the time: “The first twenty-four hours of the invasion will be decisive…for the Allies, as well as Germany, it will be the longest day.”

Franz-Stefan Gady, a London-based specialist in modern warfare, says the Ukrainian goal must be to “set off paralysis in the Russian military leadership and panic across the Russian rank and file … Intangible factors such as tactical surprise, battlefield leadership, and fighting morale will likely be decisive in the first 24 hours of an attack.”

In an ideal scenario, he says, “Ukrainian armored columns punch through layered Russian defenses at a weak spot, quickly advance into the Russian rear, and threaten command and control nodes like military headquarters and supply centers.”

But the danger for Ukrainian forces, according to Matthew Schmidt, associate professor of national security at the University of New Haven, is that the counteroffensive becomes “a division level fight devolving into a series of platoon engagements,” with the Ukrainians getting bogged down.

Mastering combined arms – the use of a variety of assets in coordination – will be crucial, he says. “Attack supply depots in the rear, clear mines fast, coordinate fires and movement from brigade to platoon level.”

The Ukrainians do have the advantage of choosing where and when to go, and with what concentration of forces. Rogov, the Russian-appointed official in Zaporizhzhia, says he expects the Ukrainians to launch several diversionary attacks to try to confuse Russian defenses, especially with the use of small reconnaissance groups across the river Dnipro in both Zaporizhzhia and Kherson.

Once the assault begins, other factors could come into play: everything from the weather to the Russians’ capacity and desire to counter-attack, and the aerial component.

A Russian counterattack?

One attribute of successful defense is the ability to counterattack, to throw the advancing enemy off balance and force it to send troops where it would rather not. The Russians’ ability to do this effectively is in doubt. Western analysts believe elite forces such as Russia’s VNV (or VDV?) paratroopers took heavy losses early in the campaign, from which they are yet to recover.

“Despite the tactical adaptations we have seen from the Russians, we are yet to see them achieve an operational breakthrough and exploitation during the 2023 offensives,” says Mick Ryan, a former Australian general who writes the military strategy newsletter Futura Doctrina, and was recently in Ukraine.

But the Russians retain a distinct advantage in the air, and this could be critical in slowing Ukrainian progress. Ryan notes that to avoid Ukrainian air defenses, the Russian air force have increasingly used ‘stand-off’ weapons such as the 1.5 tonne glide bombs that have recently been used around Bakhmut.

“Not only do these increase the survivability of the launch aircraft, but they are also very difficult to intercept,” says Ryan.

Despite the greater ingenuity and motivation of the Ukrainians, and despite the Russians’ staggering losses since the invasion began, Moscow retains far superior resources in this conflict.

Gady tweets: “In the long run, Ukraine’s armed forces will have a tough time escaping the crucible of attrition of this artillery-focused land war.”

And even if they succeed in breaking through Russian lines, and reaching Melitopol and Berdyansk, there’s little expectation among Western officials that Russian President Vladimir Putin will change his objectives in Ukraine.

Schmidt makes the point that military force only works when it induces a political effect. “That means Putin needs such a major loss he can’t deflect it…and that would be taking Crimea.”