Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will land in Washington on Monday to far less fanfare than he would have expected just a day earlier.

His highly-anticipated visit – chock-full of meetings with top US officials and a prized address to Congress – will now undoubtedly be overshadowed by US President Joe Biden’s stunning decision to drop out of the presidential race. But as detailed ceasefire negotiations aimed at turning a framework agreement into a final deal stretch into their third week, Netanyahu’s visit will still be critical to the prospects of a ceasefire in Gaza.

Senior US officials say a deal is within reach, but the prospects of a deal may hinge on the answer to one key question: Does Netanyahu actually want a deal?

The conventional wisdom in Israeli media, politics and on the streets of Tel Aviv would tell you that the answer to that question is no – that Netanyahu has much more to gain by prolonging the war and much more to lose by ending it.

The war has allowed Netanyahu to delay his share of accountability for the failures leading up to the October 7 attacks, rebuffing calls for new elections with stiff wartime resolve. His party’s prospects in the next election have actually improved in recent months. And the right-wing coalition partners keeping him in power have threatened to bolt if Netanyahu cuts a deal that ends the war.

Even Biden has said “there is every reason” for people to believe Netanyahu is prolonging the war in Gaza in order to stay in power.

There are also indications that Netanyahu is throwing up eleventh-hour obstacles to reaching a deal. He reneged on a key Israeli concession regarding allowing Palestinians unrestricted access to northern Gaza that was included in Israel’s latest ceasefire proposal and now appears to be insisting on Israel maintaining control of the Philadelphi Corridor, a 14km strip of land that serves as a buffer zone on the border between Egypt and Gaza. And publicly, his rhetoric has undermined confidence in Israel’s commitment to reaching a deal that could end the war.

And yet, Netanyahu and his negotiating team have also steadily engaged in negotiations, exchanging proposals with Hamas and bringing the two sides closer than ever to a potential deal. A growing share of the Israeli public, led by hostage families, is demanding the government strike a deal. And Netanyahu’s allies insist he is earnest in his desire to strike a hostage release deal – just the right deal, one that could allow Israel to resume fighting in Gaza.

That tension will be inescapable as Netanyahu heads to Washington, where he has often sought to bolster Israel’s standing in the US as well as his own political standing at home.

While Netanyahu will look to showcase the support he still has in Washington (and a standing ovation from a majority of lawmakers in Congress should do the trick), his visit will also be an opportunity for top US officials and lawmakers to push, prod, nudge and cajole him toward a deal – in both public and private.

Chief among those eager to make that case will be the US president, who will meet face-to-face with Netanyahu this week for the first time since Biden flew to Israel in October in a dramatic show of wartime support.

The warmth and sympathy that filled the air during that October visit is likely to be replaced by something much frostier.

Biden has grown steadily more critical of Israel’s war in Gaza – where more than 39,000 Palestinians have been killed, according to the Palestinian Ministry of Health – and Netanyahu has resisted US pressure, often publicly thumbing his nose at the White House.

Even as he has maintained strong support for Israel, Biden became the first president since Ronald Reagan to withhold some US munitions to Israel – suspending shipments of 2,000-pound bombs in May amid concerns about civilian casualties in Gaza.

Netanyahu, meanwhile, has not only resisted US calls to rein in Israeli military operations in Gaza, but has used his defiance of the White House’s calls for restraint to bolster his political standing in Israel – including in a speech just days before his trip to the US in which he talked up his refusal to bow to Biden’s pressure to wind down the war and abandon a planned offensive in Rafah.

Biden’s decision to drop out of the presidential race just two days before he sits down with Netanyahu will unquestionably shift the dynamic between the two men even further – exactly how remains to be seen.

Netanyahu will be the first foreign leader to sit down with the now effectively lame duck president – albeit one who still has six months in office during which he will continue to steer US foreign policy.

Loosened from the constraints of electoral politics and with a keener eye on his legacy, how will Biden now approach Netanyahu, the future of the war in Gaza and US policy toward Israel? And to what extent will Netanyahu feel compelled to heed Biden’s pressure?

As the Israeli prime minister weighs that new dynamic, Netanyahu – a keen observer of US politics – may be looking to someone else as he decides whether to take a leap toward a ceasefire: former US President Donald Trump.

Trump has a track record of unflinching support for Israel and has been critical of Biden’s efforts to rein in Israel’s conduct in Gaza. During his speech at the Republican National Convention, he warned that the hostages “better be back before I assume office, or you will be paying a very big price.”

But Trump in April also urged Israel to get its war in Gaza “over with, and get it over with fast.”

And Netanyahu no longer enjoys the cozy relationship he once had with Trump.

Netanyahu will have plenty of opportunities to assess whether that sentiment still stands as he meets with Trump allies in Washington this week. There are currently no known plans for him to meet with Trump.

Eight activists were participating as part of a Palestinian grassroots campaign called Defend Palestine, which calls on international volunteers to travel to the Israeli-occupied West Bank to protect Palestinians from Israeli settler attacks.

Two Americans and a German national were taken to hospital with suspected fractures after the attack, their campaign said, adding that another American volunteer suffered minor injuries. One of the Palestinian farmers was hospitalized.

They said they were accompanying Palestinian farmers to their olive fields, which they haven’t been able to access since October because of attacks by Israeli settlers. At some point, the group was approached by several young settlers on a hill.

“They sort of stood there for a while and then they came up to our group of international volunteers and they started hitting us with these thick wooden sticks almost like baseball bats,” Chen said.

Videos recorded by the activists show them trying to retreat as they were attacked. One of them immediately falls to the ground, another tries to shield himself with his arms as he is struck, and at least one is kicked in the leg and hit with a rock hurled by an attacker.

“We were doing nothing,” the Hummel said. “Our hands were up and we were backing up and trying to protect each other. So eventually, we tried to keep moving back because we had been hit so many times.”

Israel captured the West Bank from Jordan in the 1967 war and soon started settling Jews on the land. There are currently more than 700,000 Jewish settlers in the West Bank. The international community however considers the area to be occupied and Israeli settlements there illegal. The Palestinians want the territory for a future independent state.

The International Court of Justice (ICJ), the United Nations’ top court, said Friday that Israel’s presence in the West Bank and East Jerusalem is illegal, in an unprecedented opinion that called on Israel to end its occupation. It called on Israel to cease new settlement activity, evacuate settlers and make reparations for the damage caused.

‘Dire need’ for international protection

The IDF said it condemns any acts of violence, adding that its soldiers were sent to the scene and that it will operate to maintain security in what it considers its jurisdiction. It added that soldiers were dispatched to the scene and fired warning shots into the air, causing the attackers to flee.

But the activists said that when the soldiers arrived, they immediately pointed their guns at a Palestinian man who was accompanying the volunteers and fired shots in his direction.

The injured activists were taken for treatment by the Palestinian Red Crescent to a hospital in Nablus.

Pictures taken at the hospital showed the victims with multiple cuts and bruises across their bodies. The face of Hummel, the German activist, was severely swollen on the right side.

Mohammed Khatib, an organizer with the Defend Palestine campaign, said: “The attack today, not even 24 hours after the ICJ ruled that Israeli occupation is illegal and that settlers enjoy impunity when exercising violence, serves as further proof for the dire need for international civil protection in Palestine.”

Chen said the group didn’t expect to encounter violence but was “aware of settler violence” against Palestinians.

“Our injuries are very minor compared to what the Palestinians face every day,” she said.

Five people were killed after a gunman entered a home for the elderly in Croatia on Monday and opened fire, according to the country’s public broadcaster.

A man with a firearm entered a private home for the elderly in the town of Daruvar, about 75 miles east of the capital Zagreb, and opened fire on the people who were present, Croatian Radiotelevision (HRT) reported.

Five of the victims died immediately and the number of injured is still unknown, according to HRT. State news agency HINA has reported that some of those injured are still receiving medical assistance.

The gunman ran away but was later arrested near a cafe, according to HINA.

The investigation is ongoing and police have not provided additional details, HRT said.

“We are appalled by the murder of five people” in the home for the elderly, Croatia’s Prime Minister Andrej Plenković said in a post on social media.

“We express our condolences to the families of the victims and hope for the recovery of the wounded. I expect the competent authorities to determine all the circumstances of the terrible crime,” Plenković said.

Croatia’s Deputy Prime Minister Davor Božinović, Minister of Health Vili Beroš, and social policy minister Marin Piletić are travelling to Daruvar, the prime minister added.

This story has been updated.

A British-Canadian couple who were attempting to sail across the Atlantic have been found dead on an island off the east coast of Canada.

Brett Clibbery, 70, and his wife, Sarah Packwood, 60, had been sailing on their 42-foot sailboat the SV Theros, but their bodies were found in a lifeboat that washed up on Sable Island, Nova Scotia, according to a statement from the Royal Canadian Mounted Police (RCMP), published July 12.

The couple left Halifax Harbour, Nova Scotia on June 11 en route to the Azores, a group of Portuguese islands in the mid-Atlantic, around 2,000 miles away.

They were reported missing on June 18 and their bodies were found on July 10.

It is not clear why the couple abandoned the Theros and got into a lifeboat. An investigation is ongoing, the RCMP said.

Sable Island is a 27-mile long sandbar around 186 miles southeast of Halifax. It is known as “the graveyard of the Atlantic” and there have been more than 350 recorded shipwrecks there since 1583, according to the Maritime Museum of the Atlantic.

Clibbery’s son James paid tribute to his father and Packwood in a post on Facebook.

“They were amazing people, and there isn’t anything that will fill the hole that has been left by their, so far unexplained passing,” he wrote.

“Living will not be the same without your wisdom, and your wife was quickly becoming a beacon of knowledge, and kindness. I miss your smiles. I miss your voices. You will be forever missed.”

Clibbery and Packwood described themselves as adventure travelers and documented their trips on a YouTube channel named Theros Adventures.

The ill-fated voyage was part of what the couple called their “Green Odyssey,” which Clibbery said was intended to show that it is possible to travel long distances without burning fossil fuels.

“We have an electric boat,” said Clibbery in a video posted on YouTube on May 13. “We charge the engine with solar panels.”

The couple met by chance at a bus stop in London in 2015 when Clibbery was in Britain to donate a kidney to his sister, they told The Guardian newspaper in an article published in 2020.

The pair met every day for the few weeks after their first encounter, before Clibbery helped Packwood to care for her dying mother and she then looked after him after his kidney operation.

They stayed in touch after Clibbery moved back to Canada and Packwood visited him in Salt Spring Island near Vancouver, where the Theros was docked, in spring 2016.

“He took me on my first ever yacht trip and I loved it,” Packwood told The Guardian. “Brett proposed to me in the main cabin of the boat.”

Prince George has turned 11, and as per tradition his proud parents have released an official portrait to mark the occasion.

The young prince, who is second in line to the throne, is shown smiling and looking relaxed – though dressed smartly in a suit and shirt, accessorised with a friendship bracelet.

Taken by the Princess of Wales, the black and white image was published on Kensington Palace’s official social media channels.

It is captioned: “Wishing Prince George a very happy 11th birthday today!”

The latest photo follows the release of a family shot of George, his siblings and his father last month to mark Prince William’s 42nd birthday. Meanwhile, earlier this month, Kensington Palace released an image of George’s brother and sister, Princess Charlotte and Prince Louis, shot from behind in England soccer kits after the Euros final against Spain.

The Prince and Princess of Wales have made it a tradition to release photos on landmark family occasions, like birthdays, Father’s Day, Mother’s Day and wedding anniversaries. Like this one, many of the pictures have been taken by the princess, who’s a keen amateur photographer.

Another recent pic of Charlotte, this time with George and her father, was tweeted by Taylor Swift on June 22. It showed the singer with the royals and her boyfriend, American football star Travis Kelce, backstage in London during her Eras tour. This may explain the significance in the official portrait of George’s friendship bracelet – a must-have accessory for all Swifties.

Kate stepped away from public duties in January, following what Kensington Palace said at the time was surgery for a non-cancerous abdominal condition. In March, amid speculation about her wellbeing, she revealed she had been diagnosed with cancer after the operation, and was undergoing treatment.

She gave an update on her health on June 14, saying she had made “good progress” in her recovery. But she said she expected her treatment to last for a few more months and was “not out of the woods yet.”

Veteran environmentalist Paul Watson was arrested in Greenland on Sunday and faces possible extradition to Japan allegedly over anti-whaling activities in the Antarctic years ago, his organization said in a statement.

The 73-year-old Canadian-American dual national was detained by police when his ship docked in the Greenland capital Nuuk to refuel, according to the Captain Paul Watson Foundation (CPWF) and Greenland police.

The ship John Paul DeJoria and a 25-member crew were en route from Dublin, Ireland to the North Pacific to intercept Japan’s newly launched $48 million factory whaling ship the Kangei Maru, CPWF said.

“We were immediately boarded by a SWAT team and … police who wasted no time in cuffing Paul Watson, our founder, and arresting him on a decades old Red Notice at the request of Japan,” Ship Operations Director Locky MacLean said in a video message onboard the John Paul DeJoria.

Police can be seen boarding the vessel and leading Watson away in handcuffs in the video.

In a statement, Greenland police said they arrested Watson upon his arrival in Nuuk due to a Japanese arrest warrant. He will be brought before a district court with a request to detain him while a decision is made on his possible extradition to Japan, police added.

His foundation believes the arrest “is connected to a previous Red Notice issued for Watson’s anti-whaling activities in the Antarctic.”

“This development comes as a surprise since the Foundation’s lawyers had reported that the Red Notice had been withdrawn. However, it appears that Japan had made the notice confidential to facilitate Paul’s travel for the purpose of making an arrest,” the statement continued.

CPWF said it “believes the reactivation of the Red Notice against Captain Watson is politically motivated, coinciding with the launch of the new factory ship.”

An early member of Greenpeace, Watson went on to found the Sea Shepherd Conservation Society, an environmental group famous for tracking, exposing and occasionally ramming Japanese whalers. His attempts to disrupt Japanese whalers at sea gained him fame through Animal Planet’s “Whale Wars” TV show.

His activities have also previously landed him in legal trouble. In 2012, he was detained in Germany on an international arrest warrant issued by Costa Rica, which accused him of endangering a fishing vessel off the coast of Guatemala in 2002. He skipped bail but denied wrongdoing in that case.

In 2013, the Japan’s Institute of Cetacean Research and the Japanese firm Kyodo Senpaku Kaisha secured a US District Court injunction against Watson and Sea Shepherd, which prohibited him and his group from coming within 500 yards of the plaintiffs on the open sea.

Due to the injunction, Watson resigned as president and executive director of the conservation society in the United States and as president of the society in Australia.

In June, Kyodo Senpaku launched a brand-new whaling “mothership” – the Kangei Maru – a 370-foot, 9,300-ton vessel equipped with state-of-the-art drones able to travel a reported 100 kilometers (62 miles) to allow crews to quickly locate and kill whales.

The new ship replaces the Nisshin Maru, the infamous whaling factory vessel dubbed by activists as a “floating slaughterhouse” that was decommissioned in 2020 after more than 30 years of service, during which it frequently clashed with anti-whaling activists.

Japan is one of three countries, along with Norway and Iceland, that continues to hunt whales, and officials argue that the industry is an important part of its culture and history – and also provides food security.

The Kangei Maru boasts a slipway large enough to haul 85-foot whales from the sea that leads to an indoor flensing deck the size of two basketball courts.

There, workers will strip away the blubber before cutting up the whale flesh on enormous cutting boards, before vacuum-packing and storing the meat in 40 industrial freezers, ready for sale.

Commercial whaling was banned under a 1986 International Whaling Commission moratorium. But Japan has used a loophole to continue hunting whales legally for what it claims is scientific research.

In 2018, it announced its withdrawal from the IWC and resumed commercial whaling months later in defiance of international criticism.

“We are proud of catching whales and are very proud of this ship which will allow us to begin offshore mothership-style whaling this year,” Tokoro told reporters in June.

A US Navy fighter pilot has become the first American woman to score a victory in air-to-air combat, the service has revealed.

The female pilot, who was not named in the Navy release, was flying an F/A-18 Super Hornet off the aircraft carrier USS Dwight D Eisenhower as part of Strike Fighter Squadron 32, nicknamed the “Flying Swordsmen.”

The aerial victory came against a one-way Houthi attack drone, one of dozens the Yemen-based group has deployed against civilian merchant ships in the Red Sea and nearby waters in reaction to the destruction in Gaza during Israel’s war against Hamas, a release from Carrier Strike Group 2 said.

The squadron amassed more than 3,000 combat hours in flying almost 1,500 combat missions as part of operations Inherent Resolve and Prosperity Guardian, the former targeting ISIS and the latter stood up in December 2023 to respond to the Houthi-led attacks on international shipping.

The Swordsmen, one of four strike fighter squadrons that deployed on the Eisenhower, fired more than 20 air-to-air missiles against the Houthi drones during those missions, the Navy said.

“During one mission, VFA-32 became home to the first American female pilot to engage and kill an air-to-air contact,” it said.

The first air-to-air victory by a female pilot comes 30 years after Lt. Kara Hultgreen became the first carrier-based female fighter pilot in the Navy, flying the F-14 Tomcat off the USS Abraham Lincoln that year. Female aviators also joined the Eisenhower in 1994.

The Eisenhower-led carrier strike group returned to US bases on July 14 after a nine-month deployment, an exceptionally lengthy deployment for a carrier. Normal deployments last about six to eight months.

Cmdr. Jason Hoch, commanding officer of VFA-32, praised the squadron’s performance in “incredibly demanding conditions” during the deployment.

Besides the air-to-air encounters, the Swordsmen led two of seven strikes against Houthi ground targets in Yemen, destroying munitions and command and control facilities, the release said.

“We proved over and over again that the flexibility a carrier strike group brings to the fight is unmatched,” Hoch said.

Overall, Carrier Strike Group 2, which besides the Eisenhower included the guided missile cruiser USS Philippine Sea and the destroyers USS Mason and USS Gravely, hit more than 460 Houthi targets in Yemen, according to the Navy.

The group’s warships fired 155 standard missiles and 135 Tomahawk land-attack missiles during those strikes, while the strike group’s aircraft fired 60 air-to-air missiles and released 420 air-to-surface weapons, the Navy said.

The Houthis are an Iran-backed Shia rebel group that controls swathes of Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the Middle East and a nation that has been ravaged by years of civil war.

Since Hamas’ attacks on October 7 and Israel’s subsequent ground and air offenses in Gaza, the Houthis say they have been seeking revenge against Israel for its military campaign by targeting Red Sea shipping as well as Israel itself with drones and missiles.

Both the United Kingdom and the United States have responded to the attacks on shipping by carrying out strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. Over the weekend, Israel struck inside Yemen for the first time following a deadly drone attack launched by Houthi rebels on Tel Aviv.

Messages of gratitude and support for US President Joe Biden poured in following his stunning announcement Sunday that he is exiting the 2024 presidential race and endorsing Vice President Kamala Harris as the next Democratic nominee.

It was the second seismic moment in US politics in just over a week, following the assassination attempt against former president Donald Trump at a Pennsylvania rally on July 13, which saw global leaders rally around him as the Republican nominee.

British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, who met with Biden this month in Washington, said he respects the president’s decision and looks forward to working together for the remainder of his term.

“I know that, as he has done throughout his remarkable career, he will have made his decision based on what he believes is best for the American people,” Starmer wrote on X.

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau thanked Biden for being a “true friend” to his country. “He’s a great man, and everything he does is guided by his love for his country,” he said on X.

In a news conference, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese said Biden deserves to be recognized for “once again not putting himself forward first, but giving his first consideration to being what he believes is in the interests of the United States of America, as he has done his whole public life.”

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky thanked Biden for his “unwavering support” in his country’s war against Russia, which the US has backed with weapons, military aid and diplomatic support, despite backlash from Republicans.

“Many strong decisions have been made in recent years and they will be remembered as bold steps taken by President Biden in response to challenging times,” Zelensky said on X. “We will always be thankful for President Biden’s leadership.”

In Israel, President Isaac Herzog described Biden as a “true ally of the Jewish people,” while Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the US president’s “steadfast backing, especially during the war, has been invaluable,” both in posts to X.

Biden has been one of the biggest supporters of Israel’s war in Gaza since Hamas’ October 7 attacks. But he has increasingly clashed with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over humanitarian aid and the mounting civilian death toll of the conflict.

There was no immediate word Sunday from Netanyahu, who is expected to visit Washington this week.

Irish Taoiseach Simon Harris called Biden “a proud American with an Irish soul,” and thanked him for his “global leadership” and “friendship.”

Other leaders commended Biden for making what must have been a tough decision to drop out of the race.

Speaking at a rally Sunday, Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro said Biden made the “correct” decision and put his family and health first. He wished him “health and a long life.”

Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk wrote on X that Biden had made difficult decisions “thanks to which Poland, America and the world are safer, and democracy stronger.”

“I know you were driven by the same motivations when announcing your final decision. Probably the most difficult one,” Tusk said.

There was no official word from Chinese leader Xi Jinping as of Monday morning local time.

But “Biden dropping out of the election” was the top trending topic early Monday on Weibo, China’s X-like social platform, with five more related topics including discussions of Kamala Harris and Trump’s assassination attempt together accumulating more than 400 million views.

Some Chinese social media users excitedly speculated about the prospect of a woman becoming US president, while others said they believe Trump will win no matter the Democratic candidate.

“The shot was definitely a good deal for Trump!” one Weibo user wrote.

One user remarked, “that one shot didn’t kill Trump but dropped Biden,” while another described the political situation in the US as “a total mess.”

Kochi, India — Authorities in southern India’s Kerala state are taking preventive steps after the death of a 14-year-old boy from the Nipah virus and the identification of 60 people in the high-risk category, the state’s health minister said on Sunday.

Parts of Kerala are among those most at risk globally for outbreaks of the virus, a Reuters investigation showed last year. Nipah, which comes from fruit bats and animals such as pigs, can cause a lethal, brain-swelling fever in humans.

Nipah is classified as a priority pathogen by the World Health Organization (WHO) because of its potential to trigger an epidemic. There is no vaccine to prevent infection and no treatment to cure it.

“The infected boy died on Sunday after a cardiac arrest,” Veena George, the state health minister told local TV reporters, speaking in the Malayalam language.

Earlier, in a statement on Saturday, she said as part of Nipah control, the government has issued orders to set up 25 committees to identify and isolate affected people.

Dr. Anoop Kumar, director of critical care medicine at Aster MIMS Hospital in Calicut, said one positive case of Nipah had been diagnosed in a school boy and people who had been in contact with him were being watched.

“There is a minimum chance of an outbreak of Nipah virus at this stage,” he said, adding that the situation would be monitored for the next seven to 10 days.

There are 214 people on the primary contact list of the boy, the statement said. Among them, 60 are in the high-risk category, it said, and isolation wards have been set up at health institutions to treat patients.

Family members of the affected patient were kept at a local hospital for observation, after a case of Nipah virus was confirmed in Malappuram, a town about 350 kilometers (about 220 miles) from Kerala’s capital Thiruvananthapuram, local media reports said. Other people who might be at risk were asked to isolate at home.

The state government said it is working to trace any affected people to contain the spread of the virus. Nipah has been linked to the deaths of dozens of people in Kerala since its first appearance in the state in 2018.

The virus was first identified 25 years ago in Malaysia and has led to outbreaks in Bangladesh, India and Singapore.

Millions of Venezuelans are expected to cast their ballots on Sunday, July 28, in what many see as the most consequential election in the country since strongman leader Nicolás Maduro came to power more than a decade ago.

The vote pits the authoritarian Maduro – who has overseen unprecedented levels of poverty and emigration from the country – against Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutia – a quiet, bird-loving grandfather who has built a strong following despite being the opposition’s third choice after its two preferred candidates were barred from running.

But experts warn that the result of the vote may well be contested. Maduro has a habit for clinging to power, they point out: his government has long been accused of rigging votes and the 2018 election that returned Maduro to office was described as illegitimate by an alliance of 14 Latin American nations, Canada and the United States.

The populist and the former diplomat

Maduro, who took the mantle of the populist Chavismo movement after his predecessor Hugo Chavez’s death in 2013, is seeking his third consecutive six-year term in office. His last race was largely boycotted by the opposition. The Organization of American States called that vote a “farce,” noting that it was “held with a generalized lack of public freedoms, with outlawed candidates and parties and with electoral authorities lacking any credibility, subject to the executive power.”

At campaign events this year – usually rollicking, dance-filled affairs – Maduro has framed his opponents as “fascist” and “manipulable,” claiming that they would privatize the country’s healthcare and oil industry and “give away our wealth.”

Though under his watch, Venezuela has seen the rapid collapse of its democracy and nearly eight million of its people flee the country. Inflation has soared and food shortages spread as the country underwent “the single largest economic collapse for a non-conflict country in almost half a century,” as the International Monetary Fund put it.

Gonzalez, a former diplomat, is standing for an opposition coalition known as the Democratic Unitary Platform. His priorities include taming inflation, currently running at 64% year on year, and restoring trust in the country’s institutions of power, like its judiciary, which is currently stacked with Maduro sympathizers. However, he has not given a roadmap on how he would convince an authoritarian government to voluntarily give up control and lead a democratic transition.

In recent weeks, his rallies, alongside Maria Corina Machado, the charismatic leader of the opposition coalition who was banned from running for president earlier this year (along with her fellow leader Corina Yoris), have drawn staggering crowd sizes, including parts of the population long devoted to Chavismo. The pair have promised to build a country that can welcome home the millions of Venezuelans who have left in droves in recent years out of economic desperation.

Several other candidates are also running, but they have minimal support and are viewed by the main opposition as government allies.

According to Oswaldo Ramírez, the managing director of ORC Consultores, the opposition has found support in “nearly every corner of the country.”

“The electoral energy is back in the streets of Venezuela,” he said. “Never in the years since this political era began has the opposition had a voting intention that favored it in such a broad way.”

Will the election be fair?

Twenty-five years after Chávez brought his socialist vision to the halls of power in Caracas, the election marks a rare opportunity for Venezuelans to remake the country – if Maduro is willing to relinquish control in a defeat. But analysts point to Maduro’s history of alleged election meddling in suggesting he is unlikely to go down quietly.

“This could be the last best shot for Venezuela for a long time to restore democracy,” said Ryan Berg, director of the Americas Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “The level of fraud that (the Maduro government) is going to necessitate is going to be so obvious to all that there’s no way they can move forward credibly with the election. They’re going to be caught with their hand in the cookie jar.”

The ruling party has already been interfering with the election for months. In January, Machado was barred from holding public office for 15 years by the Maduro-controlled Supreme Court. The US said the decision flew in the face of a 2023 pledge the Venezuelan government had made to hold free and fair elections. Gonzalez was made the candidate after Machado’s designated replacement Yoris was similarly blocked from running.

Maduro’s government has meanwhile claimed to have thwarted a string of dubious opposition-backed plots to sabotage public infrastructure and interfere with the election. Analysts see those as the seeds of a pretext that Maduro could use to postpone or cancel the election at the last minute.

Experts warn Maduro could also move to provoke a military crisis with neighboring Guyana after he and his supporters scaled up their threats to annex an oil-rich piece of that country’s land.

Some have speculated that Maduro could use the crisis as an excuse to suspend the election.

Maduro’s government has also been accused of trying to sow confusion ahead of election day, including by renaming some 6,000 schools, places that typically serve as polling stations. The government has also created significant impediments for the Venezuelans who left the country to vote, including widely unattainable passport and residency requirements, election experts said.

How will the vote play out?

There are more than 21 million registered voters in Venezuela, including about 17 million people currently living in the country.

A limited group of election observers, including a team from The Carter Center – a non-profit organization set up by former US President Jimmy Carter – will be on the ground to monitor the vote after Venezuelan authorities revoked an invitation in May for the European Union to send a delegation, citing the bloc’s sanctions on the country.

But the options for the opposition and the international community are limited if Maduro refuses to cede power, Berg, of CSIS, said. “The opposition can get out in the streets, they can mobilize, they can demand certain things, but if the regime gets in and they have the firepower behind them to repress as we’ve seen in other instances under Maduro, it could get very ugly,” he said.

If the opposition does clinch victory, a transition period of six months is likely to include an intense negotiation around amnesty for Maduro and members of his government, which analysts say he is certain to require ahead of any potential handover.

Maduro currently faces drug trafficking and corruption charges in the US and is under investigation for crimes against humanity by the International Criminal Court.

Machado has indicated in recent months that the opposition has expressed willingness to the Venezuelan government to establish a “serious negotiation with guarantees” for Maduro and his allies – should Maduro and his ruling Socialist United Party of Venezuela step aside in the face of defeat.

“We know the responsibility we have with history, and if there are feelings that animate this process, it is about reunification, coexistence, and justice, never about revenge and persecution,” Machado said earlier this month.