For the first time, Israel has struck inside Yemen, following a deadly drone attack launched by Houthi rebels on Tel Aviv.

Since the October 7 attacks by Hamas on Israel, the Houthis have been targeting shipping in the Red Sea in solidarity – they say – with Gaza. But these direct attacks on each other’s soil between the Israeli military and an Iranian-backed rebel group risk creating a new front in a conflict that already threatened to spill over into the region.

Soon after the Israeli attack, the Houthis said they launched a fresh barrage of missiles towards Israel, promising a response that will be “huge and great.”

Here’s what we know.

Who are the Houthis and what is their role in the Gaza conflict?

The Houthis are an Iran-backed Islamist group based in Yemen.

The Houthi movement, also known as Ansar Allah (Supporters of God), is one side in a civil war that has raged in Yemen for nearly a decade. It emerged in the 1990s, when its leader, Hussein al-Houthi, launched “Believing Youth,” a religious revival movement for a centuries-old subsect of Shia Islam called Zaidism.

Since a ceasefire, the Houthis have consolidated their control over most of northern Yemen. They have also sought an agreement with Saudi Arabia, a major rival of Iran, that would bring the war to a permanent end and cement their role as the country’s rulers.

The Houthis are believed to have been armed and trained by Iran. Since Hamas’s attacks on October 7 attacks and Israel’s subsequent ground and air offenses in Gaza, the Houthis say they have been seeking revenge against Israel for its military campaign by targeting Red Sea shipping.

The US and UK have responded to those attacks by carrying out strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. However, Israel has not taken part in those responses.

In addition, Israel’s army spokesman says the militant group has targeted “Israeli civilians and civilian infrastructure” about 200 times in the same period. Most of those launches were intercepted by US Central Command, the spokesman said, but Israel’s air defenses have also intercepted Houthi drones and missiles inside and outside Israel’s airspace.

What happened in Tel Aviv?

A tipping point for Israel appears to have come on Friday, when a drone attack was launched on Tel Aviv, killing one Israeli citizen and injuring several others.

The attack was claimed by the Houthis, with spokesperson Yahya Sare’e saying the operation was performed by a new drone capable of “bypassing the enemy’s interception systems.”

“We will continue to strike these targets in response to the enemy’s massacres and daily crimes against our brothers in the Gaza Strip,” Sare’e said. “Our operations will only cease when the aggression stops and the siege on the Palestinian people in the Gaza Strip is lifted.”

The attack marked the first time Tel Aviv, Israel’s commercial center, has been struck by a drone in an attack claimed by the Houthis. Israel authorities are investigating the circumstances and potential security failures around the deadly drone blast.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) spokesman Daniel Hagari said that the military suspects the drone was an Iranian-made Samad-3 model, launched from Yemen, which had been upgraded to extend its range.

A second drone was intercepted outside of Israeli airspace to the east at the same time as the attack, he said, adding that Israel is now upgrading its air defenses and increasing aerial patrols of its borders.

How did Israel respond?

Israel’s response came a day later, when Israeli aircraft hit the Yemeni port of Hodeidah.

The attack, which marked the first time Israel has struck Yemen, killed at least six people and injured scores more, Yemeni officials said. The Houthi-run Al Masirah TV said the strikes targeted oil facilities in the port on Yemen’s west coast.

Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said the strikes had also hit civilian targets and a power station. He slammed what he said was “brutal Israeli aggression” aimed at increasing the “suffering of the people of Yemen” and pressuring the group to stop its support of Gaza.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the port was used by Iran to bring arms into Yemen.

“The port we attacked is not an innocent port. It was used for military purposes, it was used as an entry point for deadly weapons supplied to the Houthis by Iran,” he said in a statement on Saturday.

Netanyahu also said the operation, which hit targets 1,800 km (1,118 miles) from Israel’s borders, showed Israel was serious about responding to threats.

“It makes it clear to our enemies that there is no place that the long arm of the State of Israel will not reach,” Netanyahu said.

How big an escalation is this?

Neither side have suggested they are ready to back down. “It’s not in the Houthi ‘DNA’ to de-escalate with Israel,” Charles Lister of the Middle East Institute wrote on X.

Houthi army spokesperson Yehya Saree said the Houthis have “prepared for a long war” with Israel and that Tel Aviv is still not safe. Israel’s Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, warned that the “blood of Israeli citizens has a price,” and that if Israelis are attacked, the “result will be identical” to that which has been seen in Lebanon and Gaza.

On Sunday, Israeli military said it had intercepted a missile approaching Israeli territory from Yemen while the Houthis said they launched a “number of ballistic missiles.”

The war in Gaza has already been accompanied by significantly heightened tensions between Israel and the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah. The two sides have been trading cross-border fire since October 8, when Hezbollah fired at three Israeli border posts “in solidarity” with Palestinians.

But while raised tensions with the Houthis undoubtedly creates fresh challenges for Israel, Hezbollah remains the bigger threat given its extensive arsenal and proximity to Israel.

He believes Israel was trying to send a signal to the US and the international community that “enough is enough,” and deliberately chose a target with high visibility.

“You have to signal to a rogue actor that is attacking you that there is a price to pay, and I think this is what Israel tried to do.”

Like the Houthis, Hezbollah is also heavily backed by Iran, which makes no secret of its animosity towards Israel.

Any increase in hostilities between Israel and Iran’s proxies is seen as deeply destabilizing in the region because it could push the two countries closer towards open warfare.

Israel and Iran have already traded one direct exchange since October 7. Few in the international community want to see it happen again.

Bangladesh’s Supreme Court on Sunday rolled back some of the controversial quotas on government jobs which sparked violent protests, Reuters reported, citing local media.

Under the quota system, some 30% of sought-after civil service jobs are reserved for relatives of veterans who fought in Bangladesh’s war of independence from Pakistan in 1971 – with many of the country’s contemporary political elite related to that generation.

Since the roles are linked to job security and higher pay, the quota system has angered many in the country, particularly students and young people, as Bangladesh faces high unemployment levels.

Dozens of people have reportedly been killed and hundreds injured in the violence, which saw demonstrators gather on streets and university campuses in the capital Dhaka and other cities.

In 2018, the civil service quota system was scrapped following similar protests but in June the High Court reinstated it, ruling its removal unconstitutional. On July 10, the Supreme Court suspended the quotas for one month while it took up the case.

On Sunday, the country’s top court dismissed the earlier ruling that brought back the quotas, directing that 93% of government jobs will be open to candidates on merit, without quotas, Reuters reported citing local media.

Ahead of the ruling, Bangladesh on Sunday extended a curfew imposed on Friday to try to quell the violence and deployed soldiers to patrol the streets of the capital Dhaka, according to Reuters.

According to local media, the curfew was extended until after the Supreme Court hearing and will continue for an “uncertain time” following a two-hour break for people to gather supplies, Reuters reported.

As of Saturday, internet monitoring site NetBlocks said activity had remained at around 10% for more than 48 hours since services were cut Thursday.

A German citizen has been sentenced to death in Belarus after being charged with terrorism and mercenary activities, according to a Belarusian human rights group.

The group Human Rights Center “Viasna” said the German national is a 29-year-old German Red Cross employee named Rico Krieger.

According to his LinkedIn profile, he worked as an emergency medical technician for the German Red Cross and as an armed security officer for the US Embassy in Berlin.

Krieger was sentenced in the Minsk Regional Court on June 24, Viasna said on its website on Friday.

Krieger was charged under six articles of the Criminal Code of Belarus, according to Viasna, including “mercenary activity,” “agent activity,” an “act of terrorism,” the “creation of an extremist formation,” “intentional disrepair of a vehicle or communication lines,” and “illegal actions in relation to firearms, ammunition and explosives.”

Viasna also reported that Krieger was found guilty of “arranging an explosion in order to influence decision-making by authorities, intimidate the population, [and] destabilize public order.” It is unclear exactly what led up to Krieger’s alleged crimes or when they occurred.

“The death penalty is a cruel and inhumane form of punishment that Germany rejects under all circumstances. We are actively working worldwide to abolish it and are strongly advocating against its execution in all affected cases,” the spokesperson added.

Belarus says it has ensured consular access to a German national, Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Anatoly Glaz said in a statement on X. Minsk has “proposed a number of options” to Germany “for the development of the situation,” he said, according to Belarusian state media BelTA. 

“There have been contacts with the German side on this topic, of course. This criminal is a German citizen and we understand the German side’s concern for him,” said Glaz, according to BelTA.”Consultations on this topic are being held by the foreign ministries of the two countries,” he added.

“I am concerned by news that German citizen Rico Krieger was sentenced to death by Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus,” exiled Belarusian opposition figure Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya said on X on Friday.

“We are collecting more information on his case at the moment. From what we know, he was accused of several so-called ‘extremism’ related crimes,” she added.

Residents in the southern Russian city of Krasnodar staged a rare protest on Saturday over electricity cuts and water supply interruptions due to a power grid failure amid record-high temperatures.

Angry residents gathered on the streets near residential buildings shouting “Give me light,” after experiencing power cuts for several days, videos posted on social media show.

Work to repair the accident is underway and residents are being supplied with drinking water, the city’s mayor Evgeny Naumov said Saturday. “We all need to remain calm and understand what is happening, although this is not easy,” he said in a Telegram post.

The power cuts came as the city is experiencing unusually high temperatures and on Friday a daily record was set for the fourth day in a row, according to Russian state news agency TASS. The maximum temperature was 39 degrees Celsius on Friday, according to TASS.

Krasnodar Governor Veniamin Kondratyev said Saturday that the “abnormal heat,” the lack of proper capacities during peak load periods and the operation of the Rostov Nuclear Power Plant were some of the factors that contributed to the outages. One of the units of the Rostov plant, the largest in the region, was temporarily shut down earlier this week due to a technical malfunction.

“There has been abnormal heat in the Krasnodar region for a week now. The load on the energy system is colossal,” Governor Kondratyev said. “I know and understand all the indignation of residents due to the power outages.”

He said he is “in constant contact” with energy workers and that “Where possible, emergency crews repair breakdowns as quickly as possible.” Kondratyev said the city’s mayor is currently in the area that has been affected the most and “constantly reports on the situation.”

Public protests in Russia are very rare, especially after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022. The government has introduced war censorship laws that can result in severe punishment, including imprisonment, for discrediting the military.

Israeli airstrikes targeted Houthi rebels in Yemen a day after the Iran-backed group claimed a deadly attack on the Israeli city of Tel Aviv.

The Israel Defense Forces said its fighter jets struck “military targets of the Houthi terrorist regime” in the area of Yemen’s Hodeidah Port, with spokesperson Daniel Haggari saying the strikes were in response to both the death of a 50-year-old Israeli in the attack on Tel Aviv and the roughly 200 projectiles the rebel group has fired towards Israel since October.

The Houthi-run Al Masirah TV said the Israeli strikes targeted oil facilities in the port on Yemen’s west coast, adding that there had been deaths and injuries.

Houthi spokesperson Mohammed Abdulsalam said the strikes had also hit civilian targets and a power station. He slammed what he said was “brutal Israeli aggression” aimed at increasing the “suffering of the people of Yemen” and pressuring it to stop its support of Gaza.

The Houthi Supreme Political Council vowed to retaliate with “more impactful strikes on the enemy” and reiterated its solidarity with the Palestinian people, according to Al Masirah TV.

The Israeli strikes came a day after a Houthi drone attack in Tel Aviv killed one man and injured at least 10 others.

The Houthis said the drone attack on Tel Aviv was a response to Israel’s war in Gaza, claiming the operation was performed by a new drone capable of “bypassing the enemy’s interception systems.”

Israeli officials said Hodeidah had been targeted because it was the main supply route of Iranian weapons to Yemen. A spokesperson for the IDF said the targets were dual use infrastructure that were also being used for terrorist activity.

Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said “the blood of Israeli citizens has a price,” and that if Israelis are attacked, the “result will be identical” to that in Lebanon and Gaza.

“The fire that is currently burning in Hodeidah is seen across the Middle East and the significance is clear,” Gallant said. “The first time that they harmed an Israeli citizen, we struck them. And we will do this in any place where it may be required.”

Since the start of Israel’s war with Hamas in Gaza, the Yemeni rebels have regularly targeted the country with drones and missiles, most of which have been intercepted by Israel’s defenses. They have also regularly attacked US targets and commercial shipping in the Red Sea.

Both the UK and the US have responded to the attacks on shipping by carrying out strikes on Houthi targets in Yemen. However, this is the first time Israel has struck Yemen.

According to the official, Gallant informed US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin before the strike was carried out.

The defense official added that Israel was able to strike so quickly because it had been preparing for this scenario for months.

Israeli Minister of Foreign Affairs Israel Katz said Israel had “delivered a severe blow to the Iranian-backed terror organization in Yemen today” and warned it would “strike anyone who strikes us.”

He also called on the international community to “maximize sanctions on Iran.”

“Iran supports, trains, and finances the Houthi terror organization as part of its regional network of terror organizations aimed at attacking Israel,” he said.

“Iran is the head of the snake – it must be stopped now,” Katz added.

A White House official said US President Joe Biden had been briefed on “developments” in the Middle East. A spokesperson for the White House National Security Council said the US had not coordinated with Israel on the airstrikes, but added that the US fully recognizes “Israel’s right to self-defense.”

In May, at least 16 people were killed and a further 35 wounded by US-UK airstrikes in Hodeidah targeting Houthi rebels.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

Police in South Africa arrested four people including two Mexican nationals after uncovering a multimillion-dollar drug manufacturing lab on a farm in the country’s north.

The South African Police Service (SAPS) and the Directorate for Priority Crime Investigation, commonly known as Hawks, raided the property in the town of Groblersdal after receiving information suspicious activity was taking place there, SAPS said in a statement.

After searching four structures on the property, police found large quantities of chemicals used to make illicit drugs including acetone and crystal meth, with an estimated street value of 2 billion South African rand ($109.4 million).

The four suspects detained on Friday include the farm owner and two Mexican nationals, the police service said, adding that the Hawks are not ruling out the possibility of further arrests.

“What makes this different from other [seizures] is the involvement of Mexican citizens,” Katlego Mogale, national spokesperson for the Hawks told Reuters, adding: “It means that our task has just become very difficult.”

It is not clear if the drugs seized were intended for South African market or overseas.

The suspects will appear at Groblersdal Magistrate’s court on Monday on charges of manufacturing, dealing and possessing illicit drugs, according to the police service.

In January, police said around 131 drug labs had been shut down across the country since 2019, adding that during the festive season last year more than 19,000 people were arrested for drug possession.

So far this year, the Hawks have discovered 10 secret drug labs and arrested 34 people as they continue their war on drugs in the country, the statement said.

South Africa is dubbed as potentially one of the “largest meth consumer markets in the world,” researchers at the Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime highlighted in a 2021 report.

It was also described by the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (UNODC) last year as “an attractive drug transit country.” The UNODC attributed the nation’s growing market for synthetic drugs to its “porous borders,” as well as its geography and international trade links.

Air raid sirens wailed across Cyprus’s divided capital Nicosia at dawn on Saturday as Greek Cypriots mourned, and Turkish Cypriots celebrated, 50 years since Turkey invaded part of the island in response to a brief Greek-inspired coup.

The ethnically split island is a persistent source of tension between Greece and Turkey, which are both partners in NATO but are at odds over numerous issues.

Their differences were laid bare on Saturday, with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan attending a celebratory military parade in north Nicosia to mark the day in 1974 when Turkish forces launched an offensive that they call a “peace operation.”

Later in the day, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis was due to attend an event in the south of the city to commemorate what Greeks commonly refer to as the “barbaric Turkish invasion.”

Mitsotakis posted an image of a blood-stained map of Cyprus on his LinkedIn page with the words “Half a century since the national tragedy of Cyprus.”

There was jubilation in the north.

“The Cyprus Peace Operation saved Turkish Cypriots from cruelty and brought them to freedom,” Erdogan said, criticizing the south for having a “spoiled mentality” and seeing itself as the sole ruler of Cyprus.

But Erdogan left open a window to dialogue in deadlocked negotiations. “We are ready for negotiations, to meet, and to establish long-term peace and resolution in Cyprus,” he said.

Peace talks are now stalled at two seemingly irreconcilable concepts – Greek Cypriots want reunification as a federation. Turkish Cypriots want a two-state settlement.

Cyprus gained independence from Britain in 1960, but a shared administration between Greek and Turkish Cypriots quickly fell apart in violence that saw Turkish Cypriots withdraw into enclaves and led to the dispatch of a UN peacekeeping force.

The crisis left Greek Cypriots running the internationally recognized Republic of Cyprus, a member of the European Union since 2004 with the potential to derail Turkey’s own decades-long aspirations of joining the bloc.

Remembering the dead

Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides, whose office represents the Greek Cypriot community in the reunification dialogue, said the anniversary was a somber occasion for reflection and for remembering the dead.

“Our mission is liberation, reunification and solving the Cyprus problem,” he said. “If we really want to send a message on this tragic anniversary … it is to do anything possible to reunite Cyprus.”

Turkey, he said, continued to be responsible for violating human rights and international law over Cyprus.

Across the south, church services were held to remember the more than 3,000 people who died in the Turkish invasion.

“It was a betrayal of Cyprus and so many kids were lost. It wasn’t just my son, it was many,” said Loukas Alexandrou, 90, as he tended the grave of his son at a military cemetery.

In Turkey, state television focused on violence against Turkish Cypriots prior to the invasion, particularly on bloodshed in 1963-64 and in 1967.

Turkey’s invasion took more than a third of the island and expelled more than 160,000 Greek Cypriots to the south.

Reunification talks collapsed in 2017 and have been at a stalemate since. Northern Cyprus is a breakaway state recognized only by Turkey, and its Turkish Cypriot leadership wants international recognition.

At least 13 people were killed in Israeli airstrikes on homes in the Nuseirat camp in central Gaza on Saturday, according to hospital officials and Gaza’s Civil Defense.

“The IDF is making significant efforts to mitigate harm to uninvolved civilians and is operating in accordance with international law against the Hamas and Islamic Jihad terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip that are systematically and cynically operating from within civilian infrastructure.”

Gaza’s Civil Defense also said a residential block was hit south of Nuseirat, with hospital officials saying they received three bodies.

The Israeli military has launched numerous deadly strikes on Nuseirat, including the targeting of multiple UN-run schools housing displaced people. The Israeli military has said its targets were Hamas compounds operating inside the schools.

Nuseirat residents described living in constant fear of being bombed and a deteriorating humanitarian situation.

“The situation is scary,” said Rahma Abu Hajjaj, a 39-year-old mother of five from Nuserirat. “There are no warnings, there are no alarms when homes are bombed, we are hiding all the time and we do not know why they are targeting these homes.”

The Ministry of Health in Gaza said that 37 people have been killed and 54 injured in the past 24 hours due to ongoing Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip.

The ministry said the total number of deaths since October 7 now stands at 38,919 people, with another 89,622 people injured. The ministry does not differentiate between civilians and combatants killed.

Israel launched its ground campaign in Gaza following Hamas’ October 7 attacks, which killed around 1,200 people.

At least 12 people have died and 31 others are missing after a bridge partially collapsed in China’s northern province of Shanxi, according to Chinese state broadcaster CCTV.

Authorities said a portion of the bridge in Zhashui County in the city of Shangluo collapsed on Friday evening after recent rains and flash flooding.

As of 12 p.m. local time (12 a.m. ET) Saturday, search and rescue operations were ongoing after 17 cars and 8 trucks fell into the river, state media reported.

China’s national fire and rescue authority said Saturday it had dispatched a rescue team made up of nearly 900 people, 90 vehicles, 20 boats and 41 drones, according to Reuters.

One person has been rescued, CCTV said.

Chinese President Xi Jinping has called for all-out rescue efforts Saturday and said the country is in a critical period for flood control, urging local government to take action, Reuters reported, citing local media.

Parts of China have been grappling with devastating floods, just weeks after scarce rainfall and sweltering temperatures created drought conditions.

In neighboring Henan province, more than 100,000 people across the province have been evacuated from their homes as a result of flooding, according to state media.

In the southwestern Sichuan province, more than 30 people are also missing after flash floods hit a village in Hanyuan County early Saturday, CCTV reported citing the local emergency management agency.

Authorities said sudden floods struck around 2:30 a.m. local time, while many were sleeping and caused damage to homes, roads and bridges.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky struck an unusually subdued tone as he addressed his nation this week, hinting at a willingness to negotiate with Russia for the first time since Moscow launched its full-scale invasion more than two years ago.

Zelensky suggested Moscow should send a delegation to the next peace summit that he hopes to hold in November. Russia was not invited to the previous peace conference, held in Switzerland last month, as Zelensky said any talks could only happen after a Russian withdrawal from Ukraine.

Kyiv is currently facing the double whammy of a difficult frontline situation and political uncertainty over the level of future support from Ukraine’s closest allies.

While the progress Russian troops are making in eastern Ukraine has slowed significantly since US weapons started arriving in the country in May, it has not stopped entirely. Russia is still gaining territory, albeit at a much slower pace.

At the same time, questions are emerging about the willingness of some of Ukraine’s closest and most important allies – notably the United States and Germany – to continue pouring resources into the conflict in support of Kyiv.

Speaking to reporters on Monday, Zelensky said Ukraine was not receiving enough Western assistance to win the war, pointing out that its outcome will be determined way beyond Ukraine’s borders.

“Not everything depends on us. We know what would be a just end to the war, but it doesn’t depend only on us. It depends not only on our people and our desire, but also on finance, on weapons, on political support, on unity in the EU, in NATO, in the world,” the president said.

Former US Ambassador to Ukraine John Herbst said it was plausible Zelensky’s shift in tone was a reaction to the events unfolding in the United States, where former President Donald Trump on Monday announced a staunch critic of sending support to Ukraine, JD Vance, as his running mate.

“It has to be (a) reasonable peace, which does not permit Russian occupiers to continue to torture, repress and murder the people of Ukraine who are being occupied,” he said. Russia has repeatedly denied accusations of torture and human rights abuses in Ukraine despite overwhelming evidence to the contrary.

Trump and Zelensky spoke on Friday in what Trump called a “had a very good phone call”.

The former president said he would “bring peace to the world and end the war that has cost so many lives” while Zelensky said the two discussed “what steps can make peace fair and truly lasting.”

Unacceptable terms

Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeated several times in recent months that he would be willing to negotiate with Ukraine – albeit on terms that remain completely unacceptable to Ukraine and its Western allies.

Putin said Russia would end its war in Ukraine if Kyiv surrendered the entirety of four regions claimed by Moscow: Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia. Large swathes of these regions remain under Ukrainian control, so he is essentially asking Ukraine to give up territory without a fight. Putin also said any peace deal would require Ukraine to abandon its bid to join NATO, prompting Kyiv to call the proposal “offensive to common sense.”

Orysia Lutsevych, deputy director of the Russia and Eurasia Programme at Chatham House, said that considering Putin’s public demands, Zelensky’s words were likely meant as a message to the rest of the world.

Lutsevych believes Putin has stepped up his calls for negotiations because he knows his window of opportunity may be closing.

Despite being considerably bigger and stronger than Ukraine, Russia has not managed to fulfil its territorial goals – even when Kyiv was receiving only limited help from the West. Moscow’s initial attempt to take the capital ended up in a defeat and the front lines have not moved considerably in more than a year.

Uncertainty ahead

New US military assistance started reaching the front lines in Ukraine in May, after months of delays caused by political deadlock in the US Congress. At the same time, Ukraine finally received permission from some Western nations to use their weapons to strike targets inside Russia – although only in limited circumstances and in areas near the border with Ukraine.

While this has helped slow Russian progress and averted a possible reoccupation of the Kharkiv region, Ukraine is still defending territory, rather than pushing forward to reclaim areas currently under Russian occupation.

“Ukrainian forces are going to have to accumulate equipment, material and manpower for a future counteroffensive operation, and that’s part of the Russian calculus that we are seeing – the Russian military command very much appears to be pursuing a strategy where they are conducting consistent, grinding offensive operations throughout the entire front line,” said Riley Bailey, a Russia analyst at the US-based Institute for the Study of War.

By making gradual, creeping advances along the more than 600-mile-long (1,000 kilometer) front line, Russia is forcing Ukraine to commit to defensive operations rather than gear up for a counteroffensive, Bailey said.

“They will need to degrade the Russian forces and capabilities that are part of the offensive operations, which would bring some more flexibility and ease some of the pressure,” Bailey said. “Ukraine can then start making some operational choices that it hasn’t been able to make in the past few months.”

But the success of any future Ukrainian counteroffensive will depend primarily on how much support it receives from its Western allies going forward. Zelensky said this week that the current level of support was enough to hold off further Russian advances, but not win the war.

This week brought more uncertainty on that front, as Trump announced that he had picked Vance as his vice-presidential nominee. Vance has previously suggested Ukraine should negotiate with Russia because the US and other allies do not have the capacity to support it. Trump himself has claimed he would “end the war in one day” and said the US shouldn’t be sending money to Ukraine with no strings attached.

At the same time, it emerged that Germany, which is among Ukraine’s biggest supporters, plans to halve its military aid to Ukraine next year – although it suggested Ukraine should be able to meet the bulk of its military needs with the $50 billion in loans from the proceeds of frozen Russian assets approved by the G7 last month.

If the worst-case scenario for Ukraine was to materialize – if the US stopped providing aid, Europe didn’t step up its assistance and Ukraine wasn’t able to access the frozen Russian assets – Russia would likely start to make much bigger gains.

Herbst said that if the Democrats win the US presidential election in November, the current US policy of supporting Ukraine is likely to continue, with more aid flowing in.

“If Trump were to win, we don’t know what he will do. But we know that there are serious people on his national security team who will understand that Putin is a direct threat to American interests and that it is important or critical to the US that Putin lose in Ukraine,” he added.

But Herbst said there is one more factor which could convince a possible Trump administration to keep helping Ukraine.

“If his team cuts off aid, and Ukraine collapses, that will be a major defeat to the United States, caused by the Trump team. And a defeat that would dwarf the embarrassment and the damage done by Biden’s incompetent withdrawal from Afghanistan. And there will be people on his team that will understand that,” he said.

Analysts expect the Ukraine aid package – the more than $60 billion approved by the US Congress earlier this year – to last Kyiv about a year to 18 months, which could be enough time for Ukraine to regroup and launch a new counteroffensive.

Lutsevych said that Ukraine desperately needs to make battlefield gains and then see if there is a real desire by Russia to negotiate – which she says doesn’t currently come across as genuine.

“But what evidence do we have that Russians are willing to negotiate? Putin is putting his country on a total war footing,” she said, adding that the war will likely end only if Moscow begins to feel threatened.

“I think this war will end when Putin begins to feel that the Russian control over Crimea is threatened.”

Ukraine has already stepped up its attacks against the peninsula, illegally annexed by Russia in 2014 and home to Moscow’s Black Sea fleet. Kyiv claims its military has struck and sunk or severely damaged several Russian warships in the area, disabling at least a third of Russia’s Black Sea fleet.

Ukraine has also managed to hit and temporarily shut down the Kerch Strait bridge that connects Crimea with Russia on several occassions. The southern front – which stretches from the Donbas in eastern Ukraine across the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions, with Russian-occupied territory creating a land bridge between Russia and Crimea – will be a key target.

While Zelensky’s tone might have shifted this week, his position on what a peace deal should look like hasn’t, or at least not publicly. The majority of Ukrainians do not want the government to give up any territory at all.

“Right now, it is politically difficult, if not impossible, to state that a peace can be achieved without the full return of all Ukrainian territories. But that doesn’t mean that over time, it couldn’t become possible,” Herbst said.

He believes Kyiv could “speak with some justification of Ukrainian victory in this war,” even if Ukraine doesn’t manage to get back all of its pre-war territory – as long as it reclaims enough to be an economically viable and secure state.

“But for it to be a secure state, especially in those circumstances, it must be a member of NATO. I believe that if this were truly on the table, meaning with the full faith and power of the United States behind it, this in theory could lead to a stable peace,” he said.

“It wouldn’t be a just peace, because you’re still consigning millions of Ukrainians to the tender mercies of a vicious regime of the Kremlin, which has shown it has no love — and that’s a very polite way to phrase it — for Ukrainians who believe they are Ukrainians, and not little Russians.”