Officials in California are imploring residents to prepare for a powerful storm set to lash the region with torrential rain later this week as the state continues to recover from colossal amounts of snow that trapped mountain communities.

About 17.5 million people across central and Northern California – including the San Francisco Bay area and Sacramento – and parts of Nevada were under flood watches Wednesday ahead of a storm set to drench the region Thursday with dangerous amounts of rain in most of the places that currently have existing layers of heavy snow from previous brutal storms.

“A storm arriving Thursday will bring a threat of flooding from a combination of heavy rain and snowmelt to lower elevations and foothills in California, especially below 5000 feet,” the Weather Prediction Center said. “And heavy, wet snow at higher elevations will lead to difficult travel and impacts from snow load.

“Creeks and streams in the foothills of the Sierra Nevada will be most vulnerable to flooding from rain and snowmelt.”

In response to the ominous forecast, officials in Marin and Monterey counties in California have begun preparations ahead of the looming storm, which is expected to strike the area as a strong atmospheric river event.

For the Big Sur community in Monterey County, the emergency services office went as far as advising residents and businesses to stock up on essentials that would supply them for at least two weeks. The county has also made sandbags available for residents who need them to protect their property. The Big Sur area, roughly 150 miles south of San Francisco, is one of central California’s renowned tourist attractions with picturesque rugged cliffs, mountains and hidden beaches along the Pacific Coast Highway.

Marin County’s fire department will have staff prepared for rescues in anticipation of possible flooding, county Fire Chief Jason Weber said.

Marin County, where a flood watch is in effect beginning Thursday, is home to one of California’s urban search and rescue task forces, and it will make its resources available for other counties as needed, Weber said.

This week’s severe weather threat comes as much of California has been hit with several back-to-back rounds of heavy snow that made roads impassable for days and knocked out power for thousands of residents as temperatures dropped.

Meterologist Katrina Hand of the Sacramento office of the National Weather service said when the storm first hits that area there likely will be some urban flooding, ponding and flooding from the smaller creeks and streams. Later, as the main rivers rise, more roads will flood.

Strong winds that could knock down power lines are also in the forecast, she said.

In hard-hit San Bernardino County, where mountain residents have been trapped in their homes, crews conducted dozens of rescues over the weekend, the county’s sheriff’s department said on Facebook. On Monday night, the county continued well-checks and community outreach, the sheriff’s department said. Despite the removal of large amounts of snow, some roads remained closed early Wednesday.

In addition to the heavy snow that overwhelmed the state last week, more than a foot of additional snow has already fallen this week in some mountainous parts of Northern California. And Wednesday is expected to bring more to that region, where lower elevations could see between 1 and 6 inches of snow with isolated totals surpassing a foot of snow across highest elevations of the Sierra Nevada mountain range.

The impending atmospheric river event won’t be the first this year to lash California. Late last year and into the new year, multiple rounds of heavy rains from atmospheric rivers devastated much of the state – soaking entire neighborhoods and unleashing mudslides while killing at least 18 people.

Atmospheric rivers are long, narrow bands of moisture in the atmosphere that transport warm air and water vapor from the tropics. They can extend for thousands of miles and dump rain and snow when they make landfall.

The danger of rainfall on top of existing snow

Much of California stands to be impacted by this week’s expected atmospheric river.

The Weather Prediction Center says parts of the state have a level 3 of 4 risk – the second-highest on the center’s scale – of excessive rain Thursday into Friday.

The storm is expected to drop some significant rainfall on top of some heavy snowpacks. The National Weather Service is expecting widespread rainfall totals of 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts up to 8 inches.

“The uncertainty lies in how much rainfall will be absorbed by the snowpack before there is significant release of that water into the rivers,” the Weather Prediction Center said. “It’s likely some of the (precipitation) will simply be absorbed into the many feet of snow at the highest elevations, but lower elevations, generally below 5,000 ft, appear most likely to not have the snowpack necessary to absorb the multiple inches of rainfall expected.”

Additionally, the threat of heavy rain seeping into deep snowpack could lead to the snow’s weight to increase, which can cause roofs to collapse, the prediction center noted. “Affected communities are urged to remove the existing snow from their roofs to mitigate this,” the weather agency added.

California Department of Transportation District 3 spokesperson Steve Nelson said this weekend is expected to bring “chaos” on the roads.

Referring to Interstate 80 he said if it’s a wet snow that will create issues with traction. If it’s a regular snowfall, they can keep the highway open to vehicles with chains or four-wheel drive, he added.

According to Nelson, officials were holding all big rigs at Applegate, about 40 miles from Sacramento, and holding all westbound traffic at Truckee, about 30 miles southwest of Reno, Nevada, due to multiple spinouts near the Donner Summit where there is hundreds of inches of snow.

Interstate 80 heads northeast from San Francisco and has been closed several times during recent weather.

After at least six incidents this year, the nation’s top aviation official says he does not know whether close calls involving airliners are on the rise, but says the issue and its causes will be examined at a safety conference next week.

“It’s a good question,” Billy Nolen, acting head of the Federal Aviation Administration, said after testifying to the Senate Commerce Committee – his second time there in a month.

Nolen defended his agency’s handling of the safety incidents, some of which were averted when pilots – not the air traffic controllers from his agency – avoided a collision. He said officials are “treating each of these as if it had been an actual event.”

“The FAA absolutely has a grasp on the situation and it’s something that we look at every day,” Nolen told reporters. “We’ll take a look at these near misses and see if there are lessons to be learned.”

He said a major safety meeting next week will include industry officials and ask the “hard questions.”

“Let’s just stop to see – are there any dots that we need to connect, and if so what might they be?” Nolen said.

Inside the committee room, Nolen said that the agency does not take safety for granted and is looking for opportunities to improve.

The FAA pointed to its Runway Safety Council (RSC) and Runway Safety Action Teams (RSAT) that are aimed at mitigating or eliminating such incidents.

Nolen also said that the FAA will use “every step, every tool that we have available in our disposal” to address unruly passengers like one accused of trying to stab a flight attendant earlier this week.

Last year, the agency logged more than 2,300 reports of unruly passenger behavior. Investigations were initiated in 823 cases, and 80 cases were referred to the FBI for criminal review.

The kidnapping and killing of US travelers this week in the Mexican city of Matamoros, just over the border from Brownsville, Texas, has put a glaring spotlight on violence in a country that millions of international visitors flock to each year.

And as spring break gets under way in popular beach resorts hundreds of miles away in the country’s west and south, the question of safety is likely top of mind.

Here’s what to know about travel safety in Mexico:

Travel warnings

There are 32 states in Mexico, and the US State Department has “do not travel” advisories in place for six, including Tamaulipas state, where Matamoros is located.

Zachary Rabinor, founder and CEO of travel company Journey Mexico, points out that this week’s violence happened far from some of the most sought-after tourist destinations in Mexico, in a state that has long held a US State Department “do not travel” warning.

“To put things in perspective, Matamoros is about 1,360 miles away from Cancun; that’s about the equivalent distance from the Texas side of the border to Chicago, Illinois,” said Rabinor, whose company creates tailored luxury trips.

Seven Mexican states are listed one tier down in the State Department’s “reconsider travel” category and 17 are listed under “exercise increased caution.”

“Crime and kidnapping” is listed as the cause for advisories in some states in each of those three categories, including Tamaulipas. The rest of the advisories list “crime” as the reason to either not travel, reconsider or exercise caution.

“Exercise normal precautions” is the guidance for the states of Campeche and Yucatán on the Yucatán Peninsula.

Countries including Canada and the United Kingdom also have detailed travel warnings related to Mexico.

Situational awareness wherever you go

Playa del Carmen and Cancún, which are welcoming an influx of spring break travelers, are located in the state of Quintana Roo, where the State Department advises travelers to “exercise increased caution due to crime and kidnapping.”

Rabinor highlighted other popular destinations carrying the “exercise increased caution” advisory, including France and the Bahamas. France receives the caution because of possible terrorism and civil unrest. Crime is listed as the reason for caution in the Bahamas.

The State Department notes in its Quintana Roo advisory that violence and criminal activity may occur anywhere, “including in popular tourist destinations.”

It is relatively safe for travelers to head to tourist destinations and major urban centers such as Mexico City, Guadalajara and Monterrey.

Security expert Jaime Lopez-Aranda

“Travelers should maintain a high level of situational awareness, avoid areas where illicit activities occur, and promptly depart from potentially dangerous situations,” the advisory warns.

Those popular resort areas are still reasonably safe, says Jaime Lopez-Aranda, who is a senior security manager at travel risk management firm International SOS.

Lopez-Aranda lives in Mexico City, where petty crime is a persistent risk and precautions should be taken, he said, “but the most popular locations are relatively safe for all kinds of travelers.”

Journey Mexico has more than 50 employees based in the country who are always monitoring for potential risk, Rabinor said.

“We are confident that with proper preparation and information, travel to and within Mexico continues to be a great option,” he said.

If January’s international flight arrivals are any indication, the risks associated with travel to parts of Mexico aren’t keeping visitors away from the country as a whole.

Passenger arrivals on international flights were up by 13% in January compared with January 2019, before the pandemic took hold around the world.

Precautions and planning

Caution and situational awareness are key all over the country – and the world for that matter.

For travel in Mexico, Lopez-Aranda says precautions could include:
• Traveling with a trusted driver in a private vehicle
• Traveling only in daylight hours outside urban centers or in higher-risk locations
• Avoiding trouble spots in major cities
• Avoiding traveling alone
• Staying up-to-date through news and government alerts
• Making sure your mobile device is charged

All of those tips are measures to take at a destination, but much of the work that goes into ensuring the safest possible trip happens before anything is even booked.

You’ll want to research the security and medical risks of destinations you’re considering and make sure that you have confidence in your accommodations, transport, means of communication and security arrangements, says Lopez-Aranda.

“It is important that you share all plans with friends and family at home. While traveling, you should also keep constant communication to ensure safety and discuss any potential risks that may arise,” he says.

And you should have copies of your documents, contact information for your country’s embassy or consulate and the location of the closest hospital with you. Insurance that covers you in your destination is also key.

Trust your gut

Journey Mexico links to the US State Department advisories on its website, as well as travel guidance for the citizens of other countries including the United Kingdom and Australia.

The company also notes conflicts between rival criminal organizations in various areas of Mexico in its own “Is Mexico Safe?” safety assessment.

“Though these conflicts can be unpredictable, they are almost always among and between organized crime groups” and are very rare in tourist areas, the posting says.

The site also includes precautions travelers can take to avoid pickpocketing or robbery, including using ATMs only in secure locations, hiring reputable private transportation, not wearing expensive jewelry and avoiding deserted, unlit areas.

If you’re uncomfortable, try to get away from the situation or environment immediately, says Lopez-Aranda.

Because “intuition is often right.”

“You look at India, you look at the Philippines, you look at Australia, you look at the United States, Canada or Japan. They (China) have had in just the last three months a military or some type of confrontation with every country. And then they’re shocked that countries are taking their own steps for deterrence to protect themselves. What did they think they were going to do?” Ambassador Rahm Emanuel said in the interview at his residence in Tokyo.

The US envoy listed a string of what he said were aggressive military actions by China, including “attacks” against India along their shared Himalayan border, Chinese coast guard ships aiming lasers at Philippine vessels in the South China Sea, the firing of missiles into Japan’s exclusive economic zone and the harassment of US, Canadian and Australian aircraft by People’s Liberation Army ships and planes.

Beijing has denied being an aggressor in all those instances and accused Washington of being the primary instigator of heightened tensions in the region.

On Tuesday, China’s new Foreign Minister Qin Gang warned that “conflict and confrontation” with the US is inevitable if Washington does not change course.

“The US claims it seeks to compete with China but does not seek conflict. But in reality, the so-called ‘competition’ by the US is all-round containment and suppression, a zero-sum game of life and death,” he said during his first news conference in the new post.

“Containment and suppression will not make America great, and the US will not stop the rejuvenation of China,” Qin said.

Japan and South Korea

Emanuel countered on Wednesday that military buildups and exercises by the US and its partners in the Indo-Pacific are not acts of containment, as Beijing charges, but acts of deterrence against further – and possibly more dangerous – Chinese aggression.

“They’ve come together to realize that (Chinese aggression) can’t continue as is, so every country is taking steps, both within an alliance (and) also within their own self-interest of creating a comprehensive coalition of deterrence. That’s what’s going on,” Emanuel said.

He praised Japan for doubling its defense budget and taking on a leadership role in the region, citing plans for it to operate joint South China Sea patrols with the Philippines and its agreement with South Korea just this week to settle grievances dating back to before World War II concerning Japan’s colonial rule in Korea.

And he praised both Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol for putting the future before history and taking a stance that has prompted domestic backlash in both Tokyo and Seoul.

“I do think that both leaders showed a braveness and a boldness to look to the 21st century and make the most of that rather than being tied by 20th century,” Emanuel said.

“To me the test of leadership is to be idealistic enough to know why you’re doing what you’re doing. And then tough enough to get it done,” he said, adding that both Kishida and Yoon had passed that test.

‘Gravitational pull of freedom’

The US ambassador also contrasted the countries Japan has been partnering with, including South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, India and even the United Kingdom, with countries with whom China works, including Russia, North Korea and Iran.

“There’s a phrase in America, you’re known by the company you keep,” Emanuel said.

Over the past 18 months, the Biden administration has been keeping good company, too, he said, noting its record in uniting allies and partners.

Emanuel cited multilateral agreements like the Quad – the informal alliance of the US, Japan, Australia and India – and the AUKUS deal for nuclear-powered submarines between the US, Australia and the UK as well as other economic, diplomatic and military initiatives.

“I think that has given our allies confidence, like Japan, to increase the defense budget, to be more active on the diplomatic arena and stage,” he said, giving credit to Tokyo for getting eight of the 10 members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) to vote to condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in a March 3 United Nations General Assembly vote.

Countries around the world will respond to Japan, or South Korea, or the US for a simple reason that China doesn’t understand, “the gravitational pull of freedom,” Emanuel said.

“A rules-based system that upholds respect both for the individual and in trying to uphold freedom has its own, I don’t know how else to say it, but seductive gravitational pull.”