In a landmark decision, Japan’s Supreme Court has ordered the government to pay damages to people who were forcibly sterilized under a now-defunct eugenics law, ruling the practice was unconstitutional and had violated their rights.

The Eugenic Protection Law, in place from 1948 to 1996, allowed authorities to forcibly sterilize people with disabilities, including those with mental disorders, hereditary diseases or physical deformities, and leprosy. It also allowed forced abortions if either parent had those conditions.

The law had aimed to “prevent the increase of the inferior descendants from the eugenic point of view and to protect the life and health of the mother as well,” according to a copy of the law – which listed “remarkable abnormal sexual desire” and “remarkable clinical inclination” among the conditions targeted.

About 25,000 people were sterilized without consent during that period, according to the court ruling, citing ministry data.

Though the government had offered to compensate each victim 3.2 million yen (about $19,800) in 2019 under a relief law, victims and their supporters argued that was far from enough – with a number continuing their fight in court.

Wednesday’s ruling addressed five such lawsuits, filed by plaintiffs from across the country to lower courts which then advanced to the Supreme Court.

In four of those cases, the lower courts had ruled in favor of the plaintiffs – which the Supreme Court upheld on Wednesday, ordering the government to pay 16.5 million yen (about $102,000) to the plaintiffs and 2.2 million yen ($13,000) to their spouses.

In the fifth case, the lower court had ruled against the plaintiffs and dismissed their case, citing the 20-year statute of limitations. The Supreme Court overturned this decision on Wednesday, calling the statute “unacceptable” and “extremely contrary to the principles of justice and fairness.”

The case is now sent back to the lower court to determine how much the government should pay.

“The legislative intent of the former Eugenic Protection Law cannot be justified in light of the social conditions of the time,” said Judge Saburo Tokura when handing down the judgment, according to public broadcaster NHK.

“The law imposes a grave sacrifice in the form of the loss of reproductive capacity, which is extremely contrary to the spirit of respect for individual dignity and personality, and violates Article 13 of the Constitution,” he added – referring to every person’s right to life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness.

After Wednesday’s decision, plaintiffs outside the court – elderly men and women, many in wheelchairs – celebrated with their lawyers and supporters, holding up banners that read “victory.”

They are among 39 total plaintiffs who have filed lawsuits in recent years – with six having died since, according to NHK, highlighting the urgency of these cases as victims reach their final years.

In a press conference after the court ruling, Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshimasa Hayashi expressed the government’s remorse and apology to victims, NHK reported. The government will promptly pay the compensation, and consider other measures such as a meeting between the plaintiffs and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, he said.

Iran’s snap presidential election will head to a second vote on Friday, with a reformist and conservative hardliner facing off to replace Ebrahim Raisi amid unprecedented voter apathy.

After none of the four initial candidates secured more than 50% of the vote on June 28, reformist lawmaker Masoud Pezeshkian and ultraconservative former nuclear negotiator Saeed Jalili emerged as the two candidates with the most votes, with Pezeshkian leading by 3.9 percentage points.

The first round, however, saw the lowest voter turnout for a presidential election since the Islamic Republic was established in 1979, highlighting the discontent among a population losing faith in the country’s ruling clerical establishment.

Pezeshkian and Jalili are on opposite ends of the Iranian political spectrum. Each candidate could lead Iran in a starkly different manner at a time when the Islamic Republic is grappling with delicate domestic and international problems – including an economy in tatters, a restive youth movement and escalating tensions with Israel and the United States.

Here’s what to expect on Friday’ second round of elections, and how the results could impact Iran and the world.

What happened in the first round?

The snap election was held after Raisi died in a helicopter crash on May 19 in the country’s remote northwest, along with Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian and other officials.

Three conservatives and a single reformist candidate vied for the country’s top elected seat, after dozens of other candidates were barred from standing by the powerful 12-member Guardian Council, which is tasked with overseeing elections and legislation, and reports directly to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.

During the first round, Pezeshkian led with 42.5% of the votes, followed by Jalili with 38.6%, according to the state news agency IRNA. Out of 60 million eligible voters, 24 million cast their ballots, resulting in a 40% turnout.

The record low turnout – in a country where presidential elections usually command more than 60% – came despite Khamenei urging Iranians to show “maximum participation” in order to strengthen the Islamic Republic against its adversaries.

Nevertheless, analysts say critical shifts may be taking place among voters ahead of the second round. Some conservatives – including those who in the first round supported hardliner Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf  – appear to be moving their support to the reformist Pezeshkian at the expense of his conservative opponent Jalili.

Is the conservative camp fracturing?

Analysts suggest that some conservatives believe it’s necessary to shift away from some of the uncompromising policies of the late President Raisi, which Jalili is likely to continue.

One of those conservatives is Sardar Mohsen Rashid, a founder and senior member of the IRGC. Rashid declared his support for Pezeshkian on Monday and called on people to defend him against “cowardly attacks,” according to the conservative Iranian news site Khabar Online.

In a move that shocked observers, the man who led Ghalibaf’s electoral campaign, Sami Nazari Tarkarani, also declared his support for reformist Pezeshkian, Khabar Online reported.

While it is unclear whether that shift while be reflected on the ground, other supporters of Ghalibaf said they are trying to sway conservatives and silent voters to also back the reformist candidate instead.

The splits among conservatives also show that sentiments within camps are not homogenous, analysts said.

“The type of anti-establishment sentiments are not limited to just the reformists, you also have it in the ranks of the IRGC,” Parsi said, adding that the current rifts are particularly notable given efforts by the regime to concentrate power only in the hands of the conservatives.

Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at the Chatham House think tank in London, said that Iranian politics is factional and divided, adding that “not everyone in the IRGC supports or favors conservative or hardline politics.”

What would a win for Pezeshkian mean?

In a presidential debate on Monday, both candidates appeared intent on garnering votes from the 60% of the electorate that did not participate, experts said.

“Pezeshkian is adopting more radical rhetoric to attract nonvoters,” Sina Toossi, an Iran analyst and senior fellow at the Center for International Policy in Washington, DC, wrote on X. “Meanwhile, Jalili is trying to soften his image, and has agreed with Pezeshkian numerous times.”

Pezeshkian, who comes from an Azeri-Kurdish family, has tried to appeal to minorities, women and the country’s youth, Toossi wrote.

The establishment appoints people from its “own circles and excludes the rest of the population,” the candidate said during the debate on Monday.

Pezeshkian had famously criticized the regime’s handling of the 2022 mass protests, saying that in an interview with Iran’s IRINN TV: “It is our fault. We want to implement religious faith through the use of force. This is scientifically impossible.”

Addressing poverty in Iran, he said during the debate that “the problem of the poor is us,” adding that if candidates want to increase voter turnout, “they (the voters) must believe that officials sit at the same table as they do.”

Millions in Iran are under the poverty line, often struggling to make ends meet in an economy that has for years been crippled by US sanctions. Iran’s annual inflation rate hasn’t dipped below 30% in over five years, and in June stood at 36.1%, straining wallets across the country.

This persistent inflation follows the Trump administration’s withdrawal from the 2015 nuclear agreement and the subsequent reimposition of heavy sanctions on the Islamic Republic.

Pezeshkian stressed the need to re-start dialogue with the West and find a way to end the sanctions.

Iran’s relationship with the West has only worsened in recent months, with Tehran supporting militant groups across the Middle East that have targeted both Israeli and US interests amid the war in Gaza. The Islamic Republic has also escalated its nuclear program, pulling back cooperation with the UN’s nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency.

What would a Jalili win mean?

During the presidential debates, Jalili also sought to appeal to women and youth, saying that voices of students and young Iranians “must be heard.”

However, he stuck to his position that Iran should not rely on the West to ensure progress, a line echoed by the Supreme Leader in recent weeks.

“We must make the enemy regret imposing sanctions,” Jalili said, adding that Western threats must be turned into an opportunity, a line echoed by late President Raisi, who sought to solidify friendships with US foes amid Western isolation.

The candidates’ opposing views come as rhetoric between Iran and Israel sharpens. The two countries exchanged direct fire for the first time in April as the Gaza conflict widened, and Israel is now preparing for a potential second front with Hezbollah, Iran’s primary regional proxy, in Lebanon.

Iran’s mission to the UN said on Saturday that should Israel “embark on full-scale military aggression” against Lebanon, then “an obliterating war will ensue.”

“All options, including the full involvement of all Resistance Fronts, are on the table,” it said on X.

Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz responded on Saturday, saying that “a regime that threatens destruction deserves to be destroyed.”

How much autonomy would either candidate really have?

The heated regional tensions raise questions about whether a reformist president can truly make a difference. Experts say it may not be as big of a chance as some in the West might hope.

The Supreme Leader is the final arbiter on most decisions in Iran. But “that doesn’t mean that the president and his foreign policy team are irrelevant,” Ali Vaez, Iran project director at the International Crisis Group think tank, said.

He noted that Pezeshkian’s presidency would be very different from Jalili’s as the reformist is surrounded by the “creme de la creme of Iranian diplomats.”

Iran’s track record, however, shows that it has tended to take a more conservative trajectory in the long run, even when there has been a reformist president in place, experts said, adding that Tehran’s regional policy toward Israel and its proxies is unlikely to change.

When it comes to core policies in Iran, such as support for Hezbollah and animosity toward Israel, a reformist president is unlikely to make a difference, Parsi said, adding that there may however be better engagement with the West.

Despite that, Jalili may bring more hardline policies to the table, and potentially double down on his predecessor’s approach.

Depending on the environment in the West, Jalili may take a “much more confrontational approach to Iran’s nuclear program,” Vakil said, adding that despite the limitations on the president’s freedom to act, each brings their “own personal touch” to Iran’s government.

Israel and Hamas appear to be on the brink of a framework agreement for a ceasefire and hostage release deal, an Israeli source familiar with the negotiations said.

Israeli officials believe Hamas’ latest response will enable the two parties to enter detailed negotiations to reach an agreement, the source said.

A deal, however, is still not finalized nor is it assured. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must first green-light entering into that next phase of negotiations; and it will likely take several weeks of difficult negotiations to negotiate the details of a potential agreement, including the identities of Palestinian prisoners to be released in exchange for Israeli hostages held by Hamas and the sequencing of releases.

Israeli negotiators are set to meet with Israel’s political leadership, including Netanyahu, over the coming days to decide whether to enter this phase of detailed negotiations.

The Mossad, Israel’s intelligence service which has led negotiations, confirmed earlier on Wednesday that Egyptian and Qatari mediators had submitted Hamas’ latest response to Israel on Wednesday.

“Israel is evaluating the remarks and will convey its reply to the mediators,” the Mossad statement said without providing any additional details.

This is a developing story and will be updated.

The former leader of Northern Ireland’s most prominent pro-union party, Jeffrey Donaldson, will stand trial over allegations of historical sex offenses including one charge of rape.

Donaldson stepped down as leader of the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP) in March after he was charged with 11 sexual offenses.

The politician has since been charged with a further seven offenses. The 18 alleged offenses include: one charge of rape, 13 charges of indecent assault of a female child and four charges of gross indecency towards a child.

Donaldson was asked in court if he wanted to comment on the charges, according to PA Media. “Not at this stage,” he replied, the news agency reported.

His wife Eleanor Donaldson is also set to stand trial in September and has been charged with one charge of aiding and abetting rape, three charges of aiding and abetting assault of a female child and one charge of cruelty towards a person under the age of 16.

Donaldson led the DUP from 2019, throughout much of the turbulent Brexit process, regularly voicing his opposition to the Northern Ireland Protocol, a key part of the Brexit withdrawal agreement that ensured there was no hard border between Northern Ireland and the Republic of Ireland.

Both Donaldson and his wife have previously denied all charges, Irish public broadcaster RTÉ reported Wednesday.

Donaldson’s trial was announced as people in Northern Ireland were preparing to vote in the UK general election. As one of the UK’s four devolved nations, Northern Ireland has 18 seats in the Westminster parliament. Northern Irish politicians can choose to either run for a seat in Westminster or for a seat in the devolved legislature, the Northern Ireland Assembly. Lawmakers from the leading Nationalist party, Sinn Féin do not take up their seats in Westminster if elected.

Donaldson had been slated to run again in the Lagan Valley constituency but has been replaced by former DUP party colleague Jonathan Buckley.

Eyewitnesses have recounted scenes of chaos and confusion after a religious festival in northern India ended in tragedy when scores of people were killed in a crowd crush.

At least 121 people died – almost all of them women – and 35 others were injured when overcrowding at a sermon in Mughal Garhi village in Uttar Pradesh led to the deadly crush on Tuesday. Police said they were investigating the organizers, saying a quarter of a million people arrived at the venue – more than three times the number expected – and just a few dozen police officers had been deployed.

The crush happened as female devotees rushed towards the stage to touch the feet of Bhole Baba, the self-styled godman, or guru, who led the event, according to Uttar Pradesh’s chief minister. Other officials said devotees were trying to collect ground that his car had passed over as he left the ceremony.

Lal added: “If there was no carelessness then people would not have died like this, whether it’s the administration or organizers, it’s carelessness.”

The mother of a victim who gave her name as Kamala told Reuters: “My daughter was alright when she arrived at the hospital. In fact, my daughter served water to other victims, helped them and called my brother informing us that she had made it to the hospital safely. But by the time my brother reached the hospital, my daughter was dead.”

Describing the chaos at the gathering, a survivor named Rekha told Reuters that the crush had occurred after the preaching had ended, saying: “Anyone who fell did not get up, was trampled by the crowd and died.”

Chedilal, a 65-year-old man whose 30-year-old daughter was killed in the crush, said: “We were together. I saw many dead bodies lying there so I ran to where the buses were parked.

“I looked for her everywhere but I could not find her anywhere, it became night. Where could I go? What could I do?

“I was told to go to the district hospital and here I found her body.”

Uttar Pradesh has launched a special investigative team to probe the deadly crowd crush, the state’s chief minister announced on Wednesday.

A judicial inquiry will also be carried out under the state’s high court, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath said.

Adityanath suggested that the organizers were to blame, telling reporters that “the administration assumes that at such a function, internally, the security of devotees would be managed by the organizers.”

“For security, the administration deploys its force as well, but in the outer ring. Inside it is the organizers managing everything,” he said.

In a statement he shared via his lawyer, Bhole Baba – also known as Suraj Pal – offered condolences to the families of those killed as he blamed the fatal crush on “anti-social elements.”

Permission had been sought for an event with 80,000 attendees, but more than 250,000 devotees gathered at the venue, the police report said. Organizers and officials tried to direct the crowd as thousands attempted to leave and in the ensuing chaos dozens were trampled, it added.

The report alleged that event organizers provided no assistance to the injured and attempted to cover up the incident by hiding the clothes and shoes that people had lost in the crush in a nearby field.

Crowd crushes at religious gatherings in India are not uncommon, and deadly incidents have made headlines in the past, highlighting the lack of adequate crowd control and safety measures.

Hurricane Beryl, an early-season storm super-charged by abnormally warm ocean temperatures, is tearing through the Caribbean.

Grenada’s Carriacou island was “flattened” when Beryl made landfall as a Category 4 storm.

Several charities are actively distributing aid throughout the region. If you’d like to help victims, click here or use the form below.

France’s most streamed singer Aya Nakamura has joined the chorus of voices calling on the French electorate to vote against the far right in Sunday’s high stakes election.

The National Rally party, which is slated to win big in this Sunday’s second round of voting, has drawn criticism and concern from French celebrities of dual nationality, worried about the impact of their immigration policy plans. The party, headed by 28-year-old Jordan Bardella, hopes to restrict dual nationals from accessing certain state jobs. It also wants to strip citizenship rights from those born to foreign parents on French soil.

Popstar Nakamura, who immigrated to France from Mali as a child and rose to fame with her smash hit song “Djadja,” made the call in a social media post on Tuesday that zeroed in on her own experiences of racism in France.

The 29-year-old said in her post that she is “well placed to understand and know the place of racism in our country.”

Nakamura said that although she had previously chosen not to weigh in on certain issues, she now understood that her role as a major musical artist requires her to “speak out” during such an “important moment.”

She called on her fans to vote against “the only extreme to be condemned,” in what appeared to be a reference to the far right.

Nakamura herself is no stranger to threats from the far right, having previously found herself at the center of a controversy earlier this year when speculation mounted that she would perform the classic French song “Je ne regrette rien” at the Olympics opening ceremony.

Far-right fringe groups and politicians, including Marion Maréchal, a far-right lawmaker and niece of Marine Le Pen, complained that Nakamura does not even “sing in French.” This swipe was seemingly a reference to the blend of French and African slang that Nakamura uses in her lyrics.

France’s top sports stars have also been using their platforms to urge the public not to vote for the far right. Jules Kounde, a 25-year-old French Beninese national who plays on the French national team, used a press conference during the Euros tournament to share what he called his own “political position.”

“I was disappointed to see the direction France is taking, with strong support for a party against our values,” Kounde told journalists after the match between France and Belgium on Monday. “I believe it’s important to block the extreme right, the National Rally, because this party will not lead our country towards more freedom.”

Kounde’s remarks echo comments from fellow football star Kylian Mbappé, who told journalists earlier during the tournament that he is “against extremes.” Mbappé, whose family originally came from Algeria and Cameroon, stressed that he didn’t want to “represent a country” that didn’t embody his “values.”

The French far right’s strong showing in the first round has prompted concern from several European countries and even top United Nations officials. The UN’s human rights chief Volker Turk told a press conference in Geneva Wednesday that recent far-right gains across Europe should serve as an “alarm bell.”

The Chinese coast guard detained a Taiwanese fishing vessel in waters off China’s southeast coast on Tuesday night, in the latest flare-up of tensions around a group of frontline islands controlled by Taipei.

In a statement, Taiwan’s coast guard said the fishing boat, Tachinman 88, was intercepted by two Chinese coast guard vessels near the Kinmen islands, which lie just miles from the Chinese cities of Xiamen and Quanzhou. All five crew members were also detained, according to Taiwan authorities.

China coast guard officers boarded the fishing boat and then escorted it to a nearby Chinese port, the Taiwanese statement said, adding that three Taiwan coast guard vessels answered a call for help but retreated to avoid conflict when they were outnumbered by their Chinese counterparts.

China’s coast guard confirmed it detained the boat, saying in a statement Wednesday that its Fujian division had “lawfully boarded, inspected and detained a Taiwanese fishing vessel suspected of illegal fishing in the offshore waters near Quanzhou.”

China coast guard spokesperson Liu Dejun accused the Taiwanese boat of violating a summer fishing moratorium by operating trawl nets in a prohibited area and using nets with mesh sizes much smaller than China’s national minimum requirements, thereby “damaging marine fisheries resources and the ecological environment.”

The Chinese statement did not mention the status of the crew members.

China’s ruling Communist Party claims self-governing Taiwan as its territory despite having never controlled it, and has vowed to unify with the island, by force if necessary.

And Beijing has ramped up pressure on Taipei since President Lai Ching-te, who it openly loathes as a “dangerous separatist,” won the island’s ruling Democratic Progressive Party a historic third consecutive term in power in January.

Meanwhile, tensions remain high in the waters around Kinmen, a group of outlying islands controlled by Taiwan but nestled just a stone’s throw from the shores of China.

In a news conference Wednesday, a senior Taiwan maritime official said the Taiwanese vessel was detained amid an annual summer fishing ban implemented by China in May.

Two Taiwanese and three Indonesian crew members were detained as the boat operated 11.2 nautical miles from the mainland coast in China’s territorial waters, said Hsieh Ching-chin, deputy director general of Taiwan’s Coast Guard Administration.

The Taiwan coast guard demanded the immediate release of the boat and crew.

“The Coast Guard Administration calls on China not to engage in political manipulation, which undermines cross-strait relations, and it should release the Tachinman 88 vessel and its crew immediately,” the Taiwanese statement said.

China’s coast guard has increased patrols in waters around Kinmen and other outlying islands controlled by Taiwan since February, when two Chinese fishermen were drowned while being chased by Taiwan’s coast guard, who accused them of trespassing.

In late February, Chinese coast guard officers intercepted and boarded a Taiwanese tourist boat for inspection, an unprecedented move that startled Taiwanese passengers.

Taiwanese legislator Chen Yu-jen, who represents Kinmen for Taiwan’s opposition Kuomintang party, said since then, fishermen in the islands had been careful not to cross into China’s territorial waters due to Chinese coast guard patrols.

“In the past, the coast guard would usually expel fishing vessels that crossed the maritime border, but now it is strictly enforcing the law.”

This story has been updated with additional information.

During a visit to a local farm while working with development agency USAID, Ugandan entrepreneur Juliet Tumusiime realized that a huge amount of banana stems are left over from banana cultivation and simply discarded. Looking for a way to use the waste, she struck upon an innovative business idea.

Almost a decade later, now aged 42, Tumusiime is the chief executive and co-founder of Cheveux Organique, which manufactures hair made from banana fibers as an alternative to synthetic extensions.

Fashion trends among the younger population and growing purchasing power have boosted the market for hair extensions and wigs in the Africa and the Middle East, which could be worth $710 million by 2028, according to Research and Markets.

Extensions are typically made from human hair, or synthetic materials such as nylon, polyester, acrylic and PVC. Synthetics are popular in Uganda because they’re much cheaper, but they’re not biodegradable or easy to recycle. Some people complain that synthetic hair can irritate their scalp and a study of synthetic hair in Nigeria found the presence of potentially harmful heavy metals and chemicals.

“I’ve spoken to friends, colleagues, both men and women and asked them how they dispose of their hair when they take it out,” Tumusiime says. “A lot of the time it is just thrown in the trash. The level of awareness is really low – most people don’t realize that they are wearing plastic on their head which can irritate the skin and cause pollution.

“Our mission is to transform the beauty industry by providing alternatives that benefit their health and the environment. We want to empower women to make informed decisions about what hair they use and what’s best for them.”

Tumusiime says that, unlike synthetic hair, her product is biodegradable, durable and can be easily styled, treated and colored. It can also be rewashed with warm water and conditioned with detangling cream. When dry, the hypoallergenic hair can be oiled and can withstand dryers and heat up to 400 degrees, lasting weeks longer than synthetic alternatives, according to Tumusiime.

Since it’s made from discarded banana stems, she adds, it’s also a way to help curb that waste.

Uganda is Africa’s largest producer and consumer of bananas, producing about 10 million metric tons of bananas per day. Ugandans consume almost one kilogram of the fruit per person, per day, with more than 75% of the population relying on bananas as a staple food, according to the World Economic Forum.

Cheveux Organique works closely with local banana farmers, buying stems that would otherwise be discarded. The stems are split and the fibers extracted by machine. The extracted fibers are then dried and treated, before being combed out, resulting in the hair-like texture.

The “hair” is dyed into three shades: Cheveux Black, Cheveux Brown and Cheveux Blonde. Tumusiime says it has a natural sheen, is soft to the touch and can be used for braiding and styling. It’s also suitable for warm and humid climates, she notes.

The company isn’t unique in creating plant-based hair. In the US, St.Louis-based Rebundle also sells hair extensions made from banana fibers, while Nourie Hair offers a hair alternative for braiding made from Ginseng root extract and rosemary.

However, turning banana waste into a premium product does not come without challenges for Cheveux Organique. “The labor-intensive process, from picking the stems, transporting them to the facility, extracting the stems, treating them and the power needed to use this – it causes the product to become pricey,” Tumusiime says.

Cheveux Organique sells its plant-based hair in Uganda, and as fair afield as the US, France and the UK. It retails for $50 for 150 grams (5.3 ounces), which Tumusiime says is cheaper than a typical $185 for a similar amount of human hair. But synthetic hair can be bought for as little as $1 for a bundle.

“This is something that we are hugely concerned about, and we are trying to find ways to mechanize the business and produce volumes of hair whilst continuing to break even,” Tumusiime says. “The people paying these prices are getting a premium product at the end of it – and it’s about the long-term benefits that this product brings.”

Tumusiime says her startup, which currently employs 25 permanent staff members and 100 part-time workers for waste gathering, is in the process of creating regional hubs, which will function as extraction centers, as well as an education point for young people. The hubs will train future generations on the positive impacts of waste management, as well as giving young people skillsets – such as extraction and machine operation – that will equip them for future careers.

“We want to make sure that this brand is a household name,” Tumusiime says. “We want to become leaders in this industry despite challenges. But I’m passionate about what I’m doing. I’m not about to give up. I do everything possible to make sure that I achieve my objectives and achieve the vision for which I started this organization.”

A club of Eurasian countries spearheaded by China and Russia to advance their leaders’ vision of an alternative world order is set to expand again this week – this time adding a staunch Russian ally that has openly supported Moscow’s war on Ukraine.

The expected admission of Belarus to the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) at its annual leaders’ summit in Astana, Kazakhstan is another push by Beijing and Moscow to transform the grouping – from a regional security bloc into a geopolitical counterweight to Western institutions led by the United States and its allies.

Belarus, which helped Russia to launch its 2022 invasion of Ukraine, will become the latest authoritarian state to join the club, after Iran became a full member last year.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin have arrived in Astana for the summit that begins Wednesday, in what will be their second meeting this year. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, the leader of the world’s largest democracy, is skipping the event, pointing to unease among some members about the direction the SCO is headed.

Founded in 2001 by China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan to combat terrorism and promote border security, the SCO has grown in recent years in line with Beijing and Moscow’s shared ambition to counter what they see as US “hegemony” and reshape the international system in their favor.

In 2017, the bloc underwent its first expansion to welcome India and Pakistan. After adding Belarus, it will boast 10 members, representing more than 40% of the world’s population and roughly a quarter of the global economy. It also has two observer states, Afghanistan and Mongolia, and more than a dozen “dialogue partners” from Myanmar to Turkey and the Arab states.

The SCO’s expansion comes after another bloc led by China and Russia, the BRICS group of major emerging economies, more than doubled its membership and significantly extended its global reach last year.

Growing ambitions

As the SCO grows in international visibility and economic weight, it has also broadened in geopolitical ambitions.

The expected admission of Belarus, which borders the European Union, “really highlights how the SCO’s mission has changed in the last few years,” said Eva Seiwert, an expert on China’s foreign policy at the Mercator Institute for China Studies (MERICS) in Berlin.

“Unlike Iran, you don’t really get much like economic or security cooperation out of Belarus joining. And that’s why I argue that it’s more of a geopolitical move.”

With Russia deep in the third year of its grinding war against Ukraine, the SCO has become a crucial diplomatic avenue for Putin, as well as a platform to showcase he’s not isolated internationally. And as China’s relations with the US have plummeted, Beijing is now less concerned about the SCO being branded an anti-Western organization – a perception that has only deepened following Iran’s admission, Seiwert said.

“They want the SCO to be perceived as a major bloc that cannot be ignored anymore,” she said. “With all these countries joining, China and Russia (want to show they) both have a lot of supporters for their worldviews.”

And in that shared worldview, there is no place for the US in Eurasia.

In a meeting with his senior foreign ministry officials last month, Putin laid out a future vision for “a new system of bilateral and multilateral guarantees of collective security in Eurasia,” with the help of existing organizations like the SCO and a long-term goal to “gradually phase out the military presence of external powers in the Eurasian region.”

“During my recent visit to China, President Xi Jinping and I discussed this issue. It was noted that the Russian proposal is not contradictory, but rather complements and aligns with the basic principles of the Chinese global security initiative,” said Putin, who visited Beijing in May.

Frictions and unease

That big picture vison of an alternative future is going to be the “headline message” for China and Russia coming out of this SCO summit, said Bates Gill, a senior fellow for the National Bureau of Asian Research.

But the Belarus membership also creates big question marks that will hang over the organization, Gill said.

“It creates all sorts of problems and new questions about the reputation, legitimacy and mandate of the organization, given the nature of the Belarus regime and its support for Russia’s flagrant violation of international law and invasion of Ukraine,” he said.

“Clearly the SCO can tolerate authoritarian regimes, but for the mandate of the organization, it further diversifies and dilutes its original focus, which was to be on Central Asia.”

The bloc’s expansion hasn’t come without frictions – notably with the admission of bitter rivals India and Pakistan – while tensions between Beijing and New Delhi have also flared in recent years following deadly clashes on their disputed Himalayan border.

The grouping’s increasingly anti-Western orientation following its embrace of Iran and now Belarus has also fueled unease among members that want to keep good relations with the West, including the former Soviet states in Central Asia.

“In some respects, it puts the Central Asian states in a very awkward position,” Gill said. “They are pursuing what they like to call multi-trajectory diplomacy. They don’t want to be committed to only dealing with one major power, like Russia or China.”

Gill, who visited Central Asia in April and May, said there was an ambivalence in regional capitals about the future of the SCO.

Modi is skipping

India, too, appeared to be losing interest. Last year, it hosted the summit virtually – a muted arrangement that allowed Modi to avoid the optics of welcoming Putin and Xi to New Delhi as it sought closer ties with the US.

This year, fresh from his third consecutive term inauguration, the Indian leader is skipping the summit in Astana – despite Russian state media reports that he will visit the Kremlin next week.

“This tells us that he does not see the SCO as the most effective channel through which to pursue Indian interests in this part of the world,” Gill said.

Even China, the main driver behind the SCO’s expansion, is seeking a more direct way to engage with Central Asia – without Russia’s involvement.

Last year, five leaders from the region received a lavish welcome at the inaugural China-Central Asia summit in the Chinese city of Xi’an, the starting point of the ancient Silk Road trade route that linked imperial China with civilizations to its west over a millennium ago. In March, a permanent Secretariat for the China-Central Asia mechanism was established in the same city.

And while China and Russia aspire to present the SCO as a counterweight to US-led institutions, it remains a much weaker and less cohesive bloc compared with the likes of NATO, the European Union or the Group of Seven nations.

“Given the expansion of membership with India, Pakistan, Iran and Belarus, the organization will be even less like an alliance or committed common grouping, and more like a strategic-vision type of organization … representative of a Eurasian identity,” Gill said.

After the summit in Astana, China is due to take up the rotating presidency of the SCO for a year.

Seiwert, the expert at MERICS, said Beijing would work to find more common ground among member states.

“For China, it’s important that the SCO doesn’t fail, that it is perceived as successful. I think they’re also aware of all the difficulties that have come with all these different expansions,” she said.

“If it keeps on expanding – if Russia and China keep on pushing it to expand – then I think its regional relevance will really just diminish.”